全球博弈：48小时的美元风暴 凌晨1:37，第一道红色警报弹出：达拉斯联储主席洛根在纽约经济俱乐部的演讲中，抛出重磅炸弹——"当前4.25?%的利率区间必须保持足够长的限缩性"。 "超长利率平台期"的字样瞬间淹没华尔街的交易终端。汤普森迅速心算：按"6-12个月"的主流解读，高利率至少将持续到2026年第一季度。 洛根的演讲暗藏 三重博弈：通胀仍在2.3%徘徊，特朗普的关税政策如同达摩克利斯之剑；就业市场表面坚挺，实则暗藏疲态；而股市繁荣和财政政策，却为美联储维持高 利率提供了某种"经济尾风"。 黄金价格应声下跌至3330美元下方，降息预期迅速蒸发。 汤普森注视着窗外，日本财务省官员带着新提案飞往华盛顿的航班正在爬升，韩国贸易代表团的车辆驶入杜勒斯机场……全球资本正屏息等待着美联储的最 终判决。黄金价格在避险浪潮中重拾升势，2025年以来累计涨幅已达27.8%。 他回想起洛根演讲结束时引用的鲍威尔名言——"处于良好位置"。 今晚，这五 个字听起来，更像风暴来临前的诡异宁静。 利率的权杖在政治与数据间摇摆，黄金的光芒照亮资本逃亡的暗路，交易大厅的每一次心跳，都在丈量独立与 妥协的距离。 美联储的百年金库正被政治 ...

本周多位有影响力的美联储官员发表讲话，就是否应该降息以及何时降息产生了日益扩大的分歧，给期待今年进一步放宽政策的投资者带来了新 的不确定性。 7月17日，美联储理事沃勒在纽约发表讲话时直言不讳地表示，7月利率决议上就应该降息，不应等到劳动力市场恶化后才下调利率。旧金山联储 主席戴利接受采访时则重申，年内降息两次是合理的，并警告称如果等到通胀完全达到2%的目标再行动，"很可能已经对经济造成了完全不必要 的伤害"。 不过当日稍早，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克和美联储理事库格勒均公开表示，关税对价格的传导效应正在显现，现在放松政策为时过早。博斯蒂 克直言，最新的CPI数据"传递了一个不同的信息"，暗示通胀可能正处于一个"拐点"。 这些新言论表明特朗普的关税和财政政策，正让美联储的政策制定者们在降息问题上的分歧越来越大：对于一些鹰派人士来说，现在降低利率是 否合适；温和派主张在不确定的情况下采取观望态度。 鸽派担忧经济受损，对降息持开放态度 一些决策者认为，就业市场呈现疲软迹象，而过分关注当前的通胀波动可能会错失支持经济的最佳时机，从而带来不必要的风险。 据华尔街见闻，美联储理事沃勒是这一观点的代表人物。在纽约一场活动中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic being strengthened. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and volatility jumps should be guarded against. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States for most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3%, and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3%. In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0%. The number of new non - farm jobs in the US in June was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US on July 4 will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume increased slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's sixth meeting on July 1 proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Commodities oriented to domestic demand and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there will be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. Financial - The sentiment in the stock market has risen, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a moderately upward trend, stock index options remain cautious, and the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures has weakened [7]. Precious Metals - Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust [7]. Shipping - The sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [7]. Black Building Materials - The macro sentiment has temporarily cooled down, and black commodities have declined slightly. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash all show a volatile trend [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and other metals show different volatile trends [7]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and other products show different trends such as volatile decline, decline, and volatility [9]. Agriculture - Agricultural varieties mostly show a volatile trend. Rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and other products all show a volatile trend [9].

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, reflecting uncertainties in U.S. governance and its potential impact on global capital flows and economic policies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Independence - The Federal Reserve's benchmark status in the global central banking system is attributed to its relative independence, which is now being challenged by political pressures [2][4]. - Recent years have seen the Fed adopt unconventional monetary policies, including significant money supply increases and low interest rates, which have been perceived as aligned with White House economic policies [2][4]. Group 2: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - The current political landscape has led to a conflict between the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation and the White House's desire for a more compliant Fed Chair to stimulate economic growth ahead of midterm elections [2][3]. - Historical precedents exist where political pressures have directly influenced monetary policy, with the current situation being more overt and direct than in the past [3]. Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed Chair selection has implications beyond the U.S., affecting global markets through the dollar's dominance and U.S. Treasury yields [4]. - A potential departure of Chair Powell could lead to significant market reactions, including a sell-off of the dollar and U.S. bonds, particularly if policy adjustments are driven by political needs rather than economic fundamentals [4]. Group 4: Economic and Political Challenges - The U.S. economy faces challenges such as high debt, slow growth, and persistent inflation, complicating the effectiveness of traditional economic stimulus measures [4]. - Political polarization and short-term electoral considerations hinder the ability to formulate long-term economic policies, increasing the challenges to the Fed's independence [4].

美联储威廉姆斯：当前的联邦储备政策可能会降低通胀，但对就业市场的影响较为温和。 ...

Core Insights - Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 6.9% in June, despite various economic challenges, driven primarily by job growth in wholesale and retail trade, healthcare, and social assistance sectors [1][3] - The addition of 83,100 jobs, mostly part-time, has injected some vitality into the labor market, but raises concerns about job quality and income stability [1][3] Employment Quality Concerns - The average wage growth for long-term employees has slowed to 3.2%, indicating potential underlying issues in the Canadian job market [3][5] - The prevalence of part-time positions suggests a decline in job quality, leading to income instability and limited career advancement opportunities, particularly affecting groups that require stable, high-income jobs [3][5] Manufacturing Sector Challenges - The manufacturing sector continues to face significant pressure from tariffs and international trade issues, which hampers overall employment growth [3][7] - Trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada remain unresolved, contributing to a challenging environment for Canadian manufacturing [3][7] Healthcare and Retail Sector Dynamics - Job growth in healthcare and social assistance is a positive sign, but the low wage levels and prevalence of low-skilled positions raise questions about long-term economic benefits [5][7] - The increase in employment within the wholesale and retail trade sectors may reflect consumer responses to economic conditions, but the sustainability of this growth is uncertain due to the rise of e-commerce and AI [5][7] Macroeconomic Context - The decline in unemployment does not mask the underlying issues within the Canadian job market, which is influenced by external factors rather than internal economic growth [7] - Future employment trends will be shaped by global economic uncertainties, changes in international trade relations, and domestic policy adjustments [7]

据新华财经消息，7月10日凌晨，美联储公布了6月份货币政策会议纪要(以下简称"纪要")。纪要显示， 美联储官员对利率前景的分歧主要来源于对美国关税政策影响通胀的预期不同。 广开首席产业研究院副院长刘涛对《证券日报》记者表示，2024年9月份至12月份，美联储曾连续3次降 息，累计降幅达100个基点。然而，自今年初以来，美联储在长达半年的时间内一直"按兵不动"，这折 射出美联储在降息问题上正面临"两难"处境。一方面，为前瞻性地预防美国经济出现衰退，联邦基金利 率有必要向中性利率水平靠拢；另一方面，面对美国关税等贸易保护措施，美联储又不得不高度警惕通 胀反弹的风险。 明明表示，决定未来美联储是否会转向"鸽派"更为关键的因素仍是美国经济数据变动，当美国经济明显 收缩、通胀问题可控时，存在美联储从"鹰派"向"鸽派"转向、美联储"鸽派"底色更深的可能性。 他进一步分析，当前虽然美国部分就业数据显示其就业市场存在一定走弱迹象，但整体就业市场仍存在 韧性。美国就业数据给予了美联储观察经济状况的窗口，7月份美联储降息概率较低。 "根据近期美联储官员的表态，当前美联储12名票委的货币政策立场分歧较大。"中信证券首席经济学家 明 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积飘红，金银价格回调 ——中信期货晨报20250710 中信期货研究所 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读 本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | | | 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | 板块 品种 | | | | 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 ...

欧元区通胀数据显示出微妙变化。6月年化通胀率从1.9%反弹至2%，恰好触及欧洲央行设定的物价目 标。这一数据与市场预期保持一致，但背后的结构性特征值得关注。服务价格同比上升3.3%，食品和 烟酒价格上升3.1%，而能源价格则下降2.7%。核心通胀率维持在2.3%的水平，表明价格压力仍然存 在。 美国6月ADP就业数据的疲软表现为美联储政策预期带来新的变数。专业和商业服务以及医疗保健和教 育领域的就业岗位下降，成为服务业就业减少的主要原因。ADP首席经济学家理查德森指出，企业在招 聘上的犹豫态度以及不愿意补充离职员工，导致了就业岗位的减少。 这一数据引发了对即将公布的6月非农就业报告的高度关注。瑞银预计6月非农就业人数或仅增加10万 人，失业率或创2021年新高。花旗的预测更为悲观，认为非农就业仅增加8.5万人。如果6月就业数据表 现异常疲软，美联储最早可能在7月份采取降息行动。 美国就业市场的疲软表现与欧元区相对稳定的通胀环境形成对比。这种差异可能为欧元兑美元汇率提供 支撑因素。当前欧元兑美元汇率在1.17-1.18区间波动，市场正在权衡两大央行政策分化的影响。 美股市场的表现也反映出投资者对经济前景的复杂情 ...

Group 1: Employment Data - In June, the ADP employment numbers in the U.S. decreased by 33,000, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with May's figures revised down to an increase of only 29,000 [1] - The service sector saw a significant decline, losing 66,000 jobs, primarily in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [1] - Despite the job losses, year-on-year wage growth remained stable at 4.4%, only slightly down from 4.5% in May [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - President Trump announced that Vietnam agreed to open its market to U.S. products at zero tariffs, while U.S. exports to Vietnam would face at least a 20% tariff [3] - The trade deficit with Vietnam exceeds $123 billion, with the U.S. importing over $136 billion from Vietnam in 2024 [3] - The potential trade agreement could impact China's transshipment trade, as Vietnam's supply chain heavily relies on Chinese technology and materials [4] Group 3: Technology Exports - The U.S. government has lifted some export restrictions on EDA software to China, which could enhance China's semiconductor design capabilities [5] - Major EDA companies hold approximately 82% of the Chinese market, indicating a significant reliance on U.S. technology [5] - The easing of restrictions may encourage Chinese firms to increase their preference for domestic EDA software solutions [6] Group 4: Real Estate Policies - Guangzhou is proposing a "commercial to public loan" policy to convert commercial housing loans to public housing loans when the public loan rate is below 75% [7] - This policy aims to stimulate demand in the real estate market while ensuring liquidity safety [8] Group 5: Gaming Market - Tencent and ByteDance are competing for the burgeoning mini-game market, which is projected to generate revenues of 39.836 billion yuan in 2024, a 99.18% increase year-on-year [9] - The mini-game sector benefits from low entry barriers and high user engagement, making it an attractive area for both companies [10] Group 6: IPO Activity - In the first half of the year, A-share IPO applications exceeded the total for the previous year, with 177 companies applying [11] - The total financing scale reached 38 billion yuan, a 25.53% increase year-on-year [12] - The surge in IPO applications is attributed to companies rushing to submit before the financial reports expire [12] Group 7: Market Trends - A-share new account openings reached 1.65 million in June, a 53% year-on-year increase, with a total of 12.6 million new accounts in the first half of the year [13] - The overall trading volume in June was 26.72 trillion yuan, reflecting a 79.57% increase compared to the previous year [13] - The market's performance in June was characterized by a lack of significant upward momentum, despite the increase in new accounts [14]