Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in July despite pressure from President Trump, as recent inflation data does not support a rate cut [2][5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June increased by 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding expectations of 2.6% [2]. - The core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, which is below the expected 0.3% [6]. Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 2.6% [4]. - President Trump has called for an immediate reduction of the federal funds rate by 300 basis points, arguing that inflation is very low [5]. - The recent CPI data has accelerated the rebound of the US dollar index, with an initial target for this rebound expected to test the 99.50-100 range [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current policy stalemate of the Federal Reserve is likely to persist due to ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and inflation data [1] Inflation Data Analysis - Recent inflation data has not alleviated uncertainties stemming from tariffs, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may continue to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - The housing price index has shown a slight decline, indicating a potential downward trend in inflation [1] - However, prices of certain goods potentially affected by import tariffs have seen an acceleration in their price increases [1] Federal Reserve's Stance - The analyst believes that without the uncertainties related to tariffs, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would likely have enough confidence to begin lowering interest rates [1] - The current policy stalemate is expected to continue until the situation becomes clearer [1]

金十数据7月15日讯，分析师Omair Sharif及其所创办的"通胀洞察"研究公司认为，6月通胀数据中能看 出关税的影响痕迹。他在报告中写道："今日公布的数据显示，关税开始产生实质影响。"他指出，若剔 除价格下降的汽车品类，上月核心商品价格上涨0.55%，为2021年11月以来的最大单月涨幅。6月，服 务品类价格增速放缓帮助抑制了整体通胀。但这种情况可能不会持续，Sharif写道："我不认为未来核心 服务价格的走弱能继续抑制核心商品价格的预期上涨。" 分析师：6月通胀数据中能看出关税的影响痕迹 ...

美国财长贝森特：还没看通胀数据，但"不会过分强调某一个通胀数据" 。 ...

今日周二（7月15日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3364.33美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报3364.15美 元/盎司，上涨0.63%，最高触及3364.55美元/盎司，最低下探3340.99美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向看涨走势。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 伦敦金冲高回落后，市场对后续涨势能否延续产生显著分歧。从驱动因素来看，支撑上涨的逻辑主要 有：美联储鸽派预期余温尚存，贸易政策谈判的不确定性或促使避险资金流入，以及部分多头基于通胀 数据"利空出尽"的预期进行押注。 然而，压制因素也较为突出：3375附近的关键阻力位多次被试探却未能突破，昨日美盘初跌破欧盘低 点，释放出回调信号，并且美元指数在经济数据公布前企稳，可能进一步限制黄金的上行空间。趋势 上，在未有效突破3375-3380阻力区间之前，高位遇阻后的回调风险要大于续涨概率。 【要闻速递】 美国6月消费者物价指数（CPI）预计将显示物价上涨趋势明显，而这一现象可能标志着由关税引发的 价格上涨正式拉开序幕。受到汽油价格反弹和部分商品成本上升的影响，通胀数据可能打破此前几个月 的低迷表现，给美联储的货币政策带来新的挑战。 尽管服务业通胀的温和表现为 ...

若金价反弹至3358附近，可轻仓尝试做空，止损设置在3365上方，目标看向3340昨日低点位置。若3340破位，可进一步下看3330 - 3335区域。 多单策略：等待金价回落至3330 - 3335区间，若能在此区域获得明显支撑并企稳，可轻仓做多，止损设置在3325下方，目标先看3345 - 3350； 然后关注还有没有做空的机会。 黄金走势分析：伦敦金在触及高位后遇阻回落，市场围绕 "涨势能否延续" 产生明显分歧。从驱动因素看，支撑上涨的逻辑包括：美联储鸽派 预期尚未完全消退，贸易政策谈判的不确定性可能引发避险资金流入，以及部分多头对通胀数据的 "利空出尽" 押注。但压制因素同样突出： 3375 附近关键阻力多次承压，昨日美盘初跌破欧盘低点释放回调信号，且美元指数在经济数据公布前的企稳可能进一步制约黄金上行空间。 趋势上，在未有效突破 3375-3380 阻力区间前，高位遇阻后的回调风险大于续涨概率。 周一高开回补缺口后，欧盘拉涨至高位盘整，但未破前高3375，美盘初跌破欧盘低点至3347，验证了 "阻力下做空" 的有效性。随后反弹至 3358附近，恰好是前期计划的二次入场位，形成 "回调 - 反弹 - ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to significantly influence gold prices, with market predictions indicating a rise in the June CPI year-on-year from 2.4% to 2.7% and a core CPI increase to 3% from 2.8% in May [3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold futures are currently trading around 777.30 yuan per gram, showing a slight increase of 0.15% [1] - The highest and lowest trading points for gold futures today were 779.08 yuan per gram and 775.84 yuan per gram, respectively [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears to be oscillating [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market anticipates that if the actual inflation data meets or exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the market's outlook for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, potentially exerting downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Conversely, if inflation data falls below expectations, it could reignite market expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for gold prices [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Political Influence - There is growing concern regarding the future of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, especially with the Trump administration's pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates [3] - The White House economic advisor has attributed a $700 million cost overrun on the Fed's headquarters renovation to the Federal Reserve, increasing market uncertainty [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Futures - The current trading pattern for Shanghai gold futures indicates a strong oscillation, with key price levels being contested [3] - The main contract is fluctuating around 781 yuan per gram, with short-term support identified between 765-800 yuan per gram and resistance levels at 781-795 yuan per gram [3] - Technical indicators such as the 5-day moving average show signs of a golden cross, suggesting potential for further upward movement if the price stabilizes above the 10-day moving average (approximately 770 yuan per gram) [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced volatility, with spot gold rising to $3350 per ounce after a turbulent trading session on Monday, where it reached a three-week high before closing lower [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated two import investigations on drone systems and polysilicon, which may lead to tariffs, raising concerns about a potential trade war impacting the global economy [3] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 30-year yield reaching nearly 5% and the 10-year yield at 4.447%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [3] Group 2 - Upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to influence gold prices, with a forecasted rise in June CPI from 2.4% to 2.7% and core CPI expected to reach 3%, which could strengthen expectations for sustained high interest rates [4] - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates has created market unease, particularly concerning the future of Fed Chair Jerome Powell amid calls for lower rates from the Trump administration [4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is likely to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with resistance at $3365 and support levels identified at $3341 and $3334-30 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Trump's tariff pressure is escalating, leading to games among countries in negotiation, counter - measures, and buffering. Domestically, China's June economic data is better than expected, with exports and imports improving and the trade surplus expanding. A - shares rose with reduced volume, and the bond market is in a short - term shock [2][3]. - Precious metals: Gold is in shock, while silver has started a catch - up rally, and it is expected that the catch - up rally of silver will continue [4][5]. - Copper: The LME's visible inventory has increased, and Lun copper is under pressure at high levels. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and Shanghai copper will continue to adjust downward [6][7]. - Aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum has increased significantly, and Shanghai aluminum has reduced positions and adjusted. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sustainability of inventory accumulation [8][9]. - Alumina: There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, and alumina will maintain a shock [10]. - Zinc: With the macro and micro factors in a tug - of - war, zinc prices will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Lead: Near the delivery of the current - month contract, inventory pressure suppresses the price trend. After the delivery factor is removed, lead prices are expected to rise with the recovery of consumption [12][13]. - Tin: The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is limited, and tin prices will oscillate [14]. - Industrial silicon: Driven by new policies, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate: The impact of mine - end disturbances is limited, and lithium prices will oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Yichang lithium mine compliance event [17][18]. - Nickel: The uncertainty of tariffs persists, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate [19]. - Crude oil: There is no obvious sign of short - term geopolitical risk escalation. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and be observed [20]. - Steel products: The market enthusiasm has declined, and the futures prices of steel products will oscillate at high levels. The demand is still weak, and the upward pressure on prices remains [21][22]. - Iron ore: The overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the inventory pressure has slightly increased. The demand is expected to remain weak, and the short - term trend will be oscillating [23]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The excellent - good rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate and strengthen [24][25]. - Palm oil: India's palm oil imports increased significantly in June, and palm oil may oscillate and be on the strong side in the short term [26][27]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump's tariff pressure is escalating. The EU warns of counter - tariffs on $720 billion of US products, Trump threatens Russia with 100% secondary tariffs, Brazil requests tariff reduction and postponement, and the US starts a 232 investigation on drone and polysilicon imports. The dollar index rose above 98, and the stock and commodity markets had corresponding fluctuations [2]. - Domestically: China's June exports and imports were better than expected, the trade surplus expanded, and the financial data marginally improved. A - shares rose with reduced volume, and the bond market is in a short - term shock [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.35% to $3352.10 per ounce on Monday. The current gold price is in shock [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce on Monday. Silver has started a catch - up rally, reaching a new high in nearly 14 years. It is expected that the catch - up rally will continue [4][5]. 3.3 Base Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract was weakly oscillating, and Lun copper oscillated around $9700. The LME inventory rose to 109,000 tons. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and Shanghai copper will continue to adjust downward [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,415 yuan per ton, down 1.45%. The social inventory of aluminum increased significantly, and the market's long - position confidence declined. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sustainability of inventory accumulation [8][9]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3145 yuan per ton, down 0.6%. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected to maintain a shock [10]. Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated narrowly during the day and rose after a low opening at night. The overall zinc price will oscillate at a low level due to the tug - of - war between macro and micro factors [11]. Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night. Near the delivery of the current - month contract, inventory pressure suppresses the price trend. After the delivery factor is removed, lead prices are expected to rise with the recovery of consumption [12][13]. Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract fluctuated greatly during the day and first declined then rose at night. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is limited, and tin prices will oscillate [14]. Nickel - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. The uncertainty of tariffs persists, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate [19]. 3.4 Industrial Products Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound. Driven by new policies, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, the futures price of lithium carbonate was running strongly, and the spot price rose slightly. The impact of the Yichang lithium mine compliance event is uncertain, and lithium prices will oscillate [17][18]. 3.5 Energy Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil oscillated weakly. There is no obvious sign of short - term geopolitical risk escalation. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and be observed [20]. 3.6 Steel Products Steel Products - On Monday, steel futures oscillated. The market enthusiasm has declined, and the futures prices will oscillate at high levels. The demand is still weak, and the upward pressure on prices remains [21][22]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated. The overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the inventory pressure has slightly increased. The demand is expected to remain weak, and the short - term trend will be oscillating [23]. 3.7 Agricultural Products Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 09 contract rose, and the rapeseed meal 09 contract also rose. The excellent - good rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate and strengthen [24][25]. Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 09 contract rose. India's palm oil imports increased significantly in June, and palm oil may oscillate and be on the strong side in the short term [26][27].

Economic Data - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2-M1 spread narrowing [1] - China's exports in June, measured in USD, grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.1% [1] - Rare earth exports reached the highest level since 2009, iron ore imports hit a year-to-date high, and steel exports in Q2 set a record [1] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index barely rose as investors awaited US inflation data [1] - Bitcoin experienced a pullback after reaching a new high [1] - Crude oil prices fell by 3% [1] Trade Relations - The EU is preparing to impose counter-tariffs on US goods worth 720 billion euros [1] - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia if a peace agreement regarding Ukraine is not reached within 50 days [1] Corporate Developments - Elon Musk announced that a "monumental" demonstration of the next-generation Optimus robot is expected by the end of the year [1] - Meta is planning to invest hundreds of billions to build the world's largest data center and is considering shifting from open-source to closed-source [1] Upcoming Data Releases - China is set to release significant GDP data on Tuesday, while the US will announce June CPI data on the same day [1]