Group 1 - The article discusses the subtle changes in interest rates and currency value in the current economic environment, highlighting the global trend of declining interest rates and various countries' measures to lower rates [1] - It emphasizes the public's perception of currency devaluation, as rising prices of essential goods like vegetables and fruits outpace bank interest rates, leading to anxiety about currency "shrinkage" [1] - The article references Irving Fisher's work from 1914, which explores the underlying logic of currency value fluctuations and introduces the "transaction equation" (MV=PT) as a key analytical tool in macroeconomics [1][5] Group 2 - Fisher's contributions to monetary theory are significant, particularly his equation (MV=PQ), which illustrates the relationship between money supply and price levels, indicating that an increase in money supply leads to inflation [5] - The article explains the distinction between money and wealth, where wealth consists of tangible assets that provide utility, while money serves as a medium of exchange without intrinsic value [6][7] - It highlights the importance of understanding the relationship between money and wealth to grasp economic activities accurately, as misconceptions can lead to erroneous economic decisions [9] Group 3 - The transaction equation (MV=PT) is presented as a key to understanding the relationship between money and prices, showing that price levels are influenced by money supply, circulation speed, and transaction volume [10] - The article discusses how changes in money supply, circulation speed, and transaction volume affect price levels, with an emphasis on the role of banks in expanding money supply through loans [12][13] - It also addresses indirect factors influencing prices, such as production conditions, consumer habits, and trade balances, which can further complicate the understanding of price dynamics [14] Group 4 - Fisher critiques common misconceptions about rising living costs, arguing that attributing high costs solely to merchant greed or increased imports is misguided, as competition and trade can enhance market efficiency [15][16] - The article warns that holding onto these misconceptions can lead to poor government policies and misguided consumer behavior, ultimately affecting resource allocation [16] - It concludes that Fisher's theories remain relevant for understanding contemporary economic phenomena and making informed economic decisions in a fluctuating environment [17][18]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing decline in global interest rates and the measures taken by various countries, including China, to balance economic growth and debt risks through adjustments in reserve requirements and reverse repurchase rates [2] - There is a growing public anxiety regarding the devaluation of money, as prices of essential goods like vegetables and fruits continue to rise, leading to a situation where bank interest rates do not keep pace with inflation [3] - The historical context of monetary devaluation is referenced, highlighting economist Irving Fisher's insights from his 1914 work "The Money Illusion," which explains the dynamics of money value fluctuations [3] Group 2 - Fisher's contributions to economics, particularly in monetary theory, are emphasized, including the well-known equation MV=PT, which illustrates the relationship between money supply, velocity, price levels, and transaction volume [8][9] - The distinction between money and wealth is clarified, with wealth defined as tangible assets that provide utility, while money serves as a medium of exchange without intrinsic value [10][11] - The article outlines how the increase in money supply can lead to inflation, particularly during periods of economic expansion when demand outstrips supply [12][13] Group 3 - Common misconceptions about the causes of rising living costs are addressed, such as attributing high prices solely to merchant greed or the influx of imported goods, which Fisher argues can actually enhance market supply [16][17] - The potential negative consequences of these misconceptions on government policy and public decision-making are discussed, emphasizing the importance of accurate economic understanding [17] - The relevance of Fisher's theories in contemporary economic contexts is highlighted, suggesting that they provide valuable insights for navigating current economic challenges [17][18]

图片说明： 美联储决定维持利率不变，但下调了对美国经济的看法。图为7月30日纽交所内，电视正在播放美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话。（视觉中国） 本报记者 李迅典 本报特约记者 任 重 "美国经济二季度反弹掩盖了经济放缓的底层趋势"，路透社7月30日以此为题报道称，美国二季度（4月至6月）经济增长数据严重夸大了经济健康状况。美 国商务部周三公布的数据显示，二季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算增长3%，较一季度-0.5%的增速回升明显。美国总统特朗普在其社媒平台上称 赞这一经济数据，但路透社、美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）、《华尔街日报》等主要媒体纷纷表示，该数据可能并未准确反映经济实情，美国经济尚未脱 离困境，关税政策、"大而美"法案等因素仍让经济不断承压。GDP数据发布后的稍晚些时候，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之 间不变，并表示该决定是基于美国经济前景不确定性升高。 "经济仍在挣扎" 多家媒体分析称，进口下降是GDP数据上升的主要原因。受美国关税政策影响，一些企业在一季度提前进口囤货以规避冲击，拖累了数据增长。但企业在二 季度倾向消耗现有库存而非增加进口，从而提升了GDP数据。 ...

Pre-market futures are in the green this morning and holding steady — all but the small-cap Russell 2000, which is currently trading down half of one percent. The Dow is up +115 points, the S&P 500 is +60 and the Nasdaq is up a strong +320 points at this hour. Bond yields are also ticking up somewhat. These numbers appear to be in reaction to this morning's economic posts. PCE Most Warmer than Expected in June Almost as a node to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments yesterday about the state of the economy, t ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with a significant reduction in the market's expectation for a rate cut in September from 65% to below 50% [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve's decision was supported by a 9-2 vote, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the chair's decision [4]. - The meeting statement included new language indicating "economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year," reflecting concerns about growth momentum [4]. - There is a shift in focus from solely inflation to also considering employment market risks, suggesting that if employment deteriorates, the Fed may prioritize action [4][8]. Group 2: Future Policy Outlook - The potential for a rate cut in September will depend on upcoming economic data, particularly regarding inflation and employment [7]. - If inflation data shows an increase due to tariffs or rising import prices, it could delay any rate cuts [7]. - The current unemployment rate is stable, but weak corporate investment and reduced immigration could lead to job market deterioration, with a threshold of 4.5% unemployment potentially triggering a rate cut [7]. Group 3: Market Impact - Following the Fed's meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut decreased significantly, with the annual expected rate cuts revised from 2.2 to 1.8 times [8]. - The risk of "moderate stagflation" in the U.S. economy is rising, with second-quarter real private consumption growth at only 1.2% and weak corporate capital expenditures [8]. - Short-term market volatility increased, with declines in U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a stronger dollar, reflecting the market's absorption of the Fed's hawkish signals [10]. Group 4: External Variables - Political pressure from former President Trump on Fed Chair Powell regarding rate cuts poses a challenge to the Fed's independence [10]. - Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly with China, Canada, and Mexico, could impact inflation risks if tariffs are escalated [10].

Core Points - The renovation of the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters, initially budgeted at $1.9 billion, has escalated to $2.5 billion, reflecting a cost increase of over 30% [3][6] - The project aims to modernize two historic buildings, the Eccles Building and the East Building, which have not undergone significant renovations in nearly a century [3][6] - The rising costs are attributed to various hidden expenses, including labor, materials, maintenance, and environmental factors, leading to criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1][6] Cost Factors - The initial budget underestimated key factors such as inflation during the pandemic, rising construction material prices, and unforeseen infrastructure issues [6][8] - Between 2021 and 2022, the prices of construction materials like steel surged due to global supply chain constraints and increased demand in the construction industry [6][8] - Environmental challenges, including the discovery of asbestos and unique soil and groundwater issues in Washington D.C., complicated the excavation work and increased costs [6][7] Aesthetic and Regulatory Requirements - The aesthetic demands of the renovation project have also significantly contributed to the cost increase, with a shift towards using high-end materials like white marble, as mandated by the Trump administration [7][8] - The Federal Reserve's requirement for all materials to be sourced domestically further escalated costs, as specialized craftsmanship was needed to match the historical architecture [7][8] Public Perception and Response - Critics, including Trump and his supporters, have labeled the project as a waste of funds, citing unnecessary luxury features like a rooftop garden and VIP elevators [8] - In response, the Federal Reserve has denied these claims, clarifying that many of the alleged luxury features do not exist and emphasizing the project's necessity [8] - The ongoing budget increases reflect broader economic challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, including inflation, labor shortages, and global supply chain disruptions [8]

日本央行行长植田和男：日本的私人消费受到通货膨胀的影响，而不是关税。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the need to closely monitor the upward risks of inflation while maintaining the policy interest rate at a low level of 0.5% [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focused on inflation risks, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The current policy interest rate remains at 0.5%, reflecting a commitment to support economic stability [1]

堂堂美国总统特朗普，居然像个"键盘侠"一样，公开在网上狂喷美联储主席鲍威尔，骂人家是"榆木脑袋"，就为了逼着降息！这可不象啥小打小闹，背后藏 着的是美国经济的"命门"，甚至可能决定中美博弈谁能笑到最后。咱今天就来扒一扒，这场"降息大战"到底咋回事儿。 这不是特朗普第一次"搞事情"。早在2019年，他就公开嚷嚷要解雇鲍威尔，嫌人家加息拖后腿，吓得股市都抖三抖。2020年疫情刚起，他又逼着降息，利率 直接砍到0%，虽说有救市理由，但明眼人都看出这是"政治操作"。到了2024年，眼瞅着中期选举，他又想靠降息和大手笔刺激计划"刷政绩"，这套路咱都 看腻了。 降息这事儿，跟咱老百姓有啥关系？说白了，美国降息可能让咱中国也跟着调整利率。比如你贷款买房，利率降1%，一年能省下不少银子！根据央行数 据，国内住户贷款高达84万亿，降息1%就能省8400亿，等于发了个大红包。进口成本也能降，东西便宜了，大家买得起，消费也热乎了。 再看看中美博弈这盘棋。美国要是降息，通胀一爆发，经济可能又得"跪"，就像尼克松那会儿。而中国呢？利差一缩小，人民币压力减轻，出口进口都能喘 口气。研究机构彭博社的数据显示，中美利差目前有2.6%，如果美 ...

同时，尽管过去几个月通胀率年增，但迄今为止关税对消费者物价的影响仍然有限。美联储仍然认为关 税驱动的物价上涨只是水平变化，而非通胀的持续驱动因素。然而，由于基准关税的一些细节才刚刚明 朗，而且最近达成的"协议"的许多细节仍有待敲定，未来几个月通货膨胀率可能会继续上升。 关于在2024年降息100个基点之后，2025年是否会长期停滞、不会降息的问题，摩根资管指，美联储当 然愿意等待经济数据出现逆转——无论是成长放缓还是通胀上升——然后再采取行动，但可能需要几个 月的数据才能更清楚地了解该政策对美国经济的影响。 摩根资产管理环球策略师Kerry Craig表示，目前市场定价反映出9月降息的可能性不到50%，未来三次 会议上降息次数也不超过两次。摩根资管仍然预期美联储今年将放松政策，然而，9月降息的条件似乎 很高，可能需要劳动力市场出现实质恶化，并且政策决策的意外经济后果要到今年晚些时候才能完全显 现，这表明美联储可能在12月份降息。 美联储在7月会议上并未如预期般调整利率，但这标志着30多年来首次出现两位反对者。美联储希望被 视为货币政策"高效"，而非强硬或"鸽派"。 总体而言，美联储仍然认为经济状况良好。虽然对 ...