1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil futures are under pressure to weaken further due to expected production growth and limited export increase. In the long - term, it maintains a bearish view. In China, it will test the support at 800 - 7900 yuan, then may rebound short - term and remain bearish long - term. - For soybean oil, CBOT soybean oil is dragged by reduced export and potential negative impact from US biodiesel policy. In China, factory inventory will increase, and the basis will gradually decline after short - term support [1]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are back in the trading range. Spring sowing progress is fast, and Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. In China, supply is recovering, and the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations [3]. Pig Industry - Pig spot prices are stable with little change in supply - demand. Fat - standard price difference is narrowing, and the market is expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract is below 14000, with limited upside and downside potential. Attention should be paid to the performance of second - fattening pigs [6][7]. Corn Industry - Corn prices are supported in the short - term, but the upside is limited by downstream losses. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased demand will support prices. It is recommended to go long on dips [9]. Sugar Industry - Brazilian new crushing season starts well, and the production prospects of Thailand and India are optimistic, limiting the upside of sugar prices. Short - term, raw sugar is expected to fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents/lb. Chinese sugar supply is loose, but strong sales and limited imports support prices [12]. Cotton Industry - The downstream of the cotton industry is gradually weakening, and the supply is abundant. Short - term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate in a range. Attention should be paid to macro factors [14]. Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is generally sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 8, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil prices had different changes. For example, the price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.36%. There were also changes in spreads such as inter - month spreads and cross - commodity spreads [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Bean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean prices had various changes. For example, the M2509 bean meal futures price decreased by 0.69%. There were also changes in spreads like inter - month spreads and cross - meal spreads [3]. Pig Industry - **Futures and Spot**: Futures prices of main contracts increased slightly, and spot prices in different regions had small changes. Some indicators such as slaughter volume and breeding profit also changed [6]. Corn Industry - **Futures and Spot**: Corn and corn starch futures prices increased slightly. Spot prices in some regions remained stable, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and other indicators [9]. Sugar Industry - **Futures and Spot**: Sugar futures prices increased slightly, and ICE raw sugar also rose. Spot prices in some regions were stable. Industry data showed an increase in production and sales, and a decrease in inventory [12]. Cotton Industry - **Futures and Spot**: Cotton futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices had small changes. Industry data showed a decrease in commercial inventory and import volume, and an increase in yarn and fabric inventory [14]. Egg Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Egg futures prices had small changes, and the basis and spreads also changed. Egg - related prices such as egg - laying chicken seedlings and culled chicken prices had different trends [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The risk at the origin has not been fully released, and it may continue to decline before entering a bottom - oscillation pattern. There is strong support during the decline, and it is necessary to wait for the opportunity to rise in the third quarter [6]. - Soybean oil: Unilateral drive is insufficient, and it runs relatively strongly among varieties. It follows the fluctuations of the palm - oil and US - soybean - oil - led oil and fat sectors and maintains a relatively strong operation among varieties when palm oil is seasonally under - allocated and soybean - oil inventory is low [9]. - Soybean meal: It is expected to be weakly operated in the short term, and the market should wait for the guidance of the USDA report [17][21]. - Soybean: Due to the expectation of state - reserve sales, the futures may be weakly oscillated [17][21]. - Corn: It is expected to run strongly, and the supply - and - demand pattern remains tight [39][43]. - Sugar: It is mainly in the range consolidation, with the international market stabilizing and the domestic market focusing on the narrowing opportunity of the internal - and - external price difference [58][60]. - Cotton: It is expected to oscillate and wait for the fundamental drive, and the market should pay attention to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [86][87]. - Live pigs: The near - end contradictions are still accumulating, and the market is waiting for a direction [111]. Summary According to the Directory Palm Oil - **Last Week's View and Logic**: The selling pressure at the origin was continuously realized, and it rebounded slightly following crude oil. The 09 contract of palm oil fell 3.22% last week [5]. - **This Week's View and Logic**: The production in Malaysia in April showed unexpected growth, and the inventory levels in Indonesia and Malaysia were quite different. After the phased selling pressure was released, there was no further resonance - downward trend in the fundamentals. Although it was still seasonally under - allocated, there was strong support during the decline. The market's pricing expectation for palm oil still came from the resumption of production at the origin. The risk at the origin had not been fully released, and palm oil might continue to decline before entering a bottom - oscillation pattern [6]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's View and Logic**: It mainly fluctuated following the oil - and - fat sector and international oil prices. The domestic spot - opening situation had not fully relaxed, the soybean - palm price difference continued to rise, and the 09 contract of soybean oil fell 0.66% last week [5]. - **This Week's View and Logic**: In the international market, funds continued to push up the trading of the US - soybean oil - to - meal ratio. The logic of being long on US soybean oil and short on BMD was still valid. The biggest bullish factor for US soybean oil was the risk premium before the RVO announcement. In the international oil - and - fat supply, attention should be paid to when the new South - American soybean - oil listing would show the price pressure. In the domestic market, if the arrivals in May and June were more than 1.2 billion tons and the opening situation was good, the soybean - oil inventory would accumulate from May to July and might decline after July [7][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Market Situation**: The US - soybean futures prices rose and fell alternately. The domestic soybean - meal futures prices were weakly oscillated, and the soybean futures prices rose first and then fell [17]. - **This Week's Forecast**: It is expected that the prices of soybean - meal and soybean futures will be weakly operated. The domestic soybean - meal trading may focus on the relaxation of Sino - US trade frictions and the pressure of soybean arrivals in the second quarter. For domestic soybeans, although the market's remaining grains are less and the spot prices are strong, the expectation of state - reserve sales is expected to suppress the upward space of soybean prices [21]. Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices rose in the week of May 9. In the futures market, the market oscillated after a rapid rise [39][40]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices corrected, corn - starch inventories rose, and the corn market was expected to run strongly due to the tight supply - and - demand pattern [40][43]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: In the international market, the New York raw - sugar active contract price rose 3.18%. In the domestic market, the spot price of Guangxi groups and the Zheng - sugar main contract price both decreased [58][59]. - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: The international market is expected to stabilize, and the domestic market is mainly in the range consolidation. The domestic market should focus on the narrowing opportunity of the internal - and - external price difference [60]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton oscillated downward, and the domestic textile industry's operation was stable. The domestic cotton futures were affected by the weak - demand expectation and external - market factors and were expected to oscillate at a low level [86][87]. - **Operation Suggestion**: ICE cotton is expected to oscillate, and the domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The market should pay attention to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [109]. Live Pigs - **This Week's Market Review**: In the spot market, live - pig prices were strongly oscillated. In the futures market, live - pig futures prices were oscillated and adjusted [111]. - **Market Outlook**: The near - end contradictions are still accumulating, and the market is waiting for a direction [111].

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for apples is to be bullish with fluctuations [3] Core View - Apple futures prices closed lower yesterday, but the enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing goods is high. After the holiday, apple prices remain stable. The new season's apples have entered the fruit - setting period, with a poor performance in the western region. The late - Fuji apple's shipping speed continues to accelerate. Boosted by the traditional consumption peak season and the May Day holiday, the enthusiasm of merchants in the producing areas to search for goods is high, and the price has increased significantly compared with that before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The de - stocking speed of apples is faster than that of the same period last year, and the remaining inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. Although the new season's apples are uncertain, the strengthening of the spot market is relatively certain [2] Summary by Directory - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,795 yuan/ton, a change of - 91 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.15%. In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji apples was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 405, a change of + 91 from the previous day. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price of 70 and above semi - commercial late - Fuji apples was 4.30 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 805, a change of + 91 from the previous day. After the holiday, merchants in the apple market look for goods as needed, mainly shipping pre - packaged goods. The transaction of merchants' goods in the western producing areas is stable, and spot merchants' purchases are okay. In Shandong, the number of merchants looking for goods has slightly decreased compared with before the holiday, but the high - cost - effective goods are still selling well, and the price of in - warehouse goods is relatively stable. The sales in the sales areas are okay, and downstream wholesalers maintain on - demand purchases [1] - **Market Analysis**: Apple futures prices closed lower yesterday. The enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing goods is high, and apple prices remain stable after the holiday. The new season's apples have entered the fruit - setting period, with a poor performance in the western region. It is necessary to continuously track the weather conditions in the producing areas. The late - Fuji apple's shipping speed continues to accelerate. Boosted by the traditional consumption peak season and the May Day holiday, the enthusiasm of merchants in the producing areas to search for goods is high, and the price has increased significantly compared with that before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The de - stocking speed of apples is faster than that of the same period last year, and the remaining inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The remaining goods in the western producing areas are relatively concentrated, mainly merchants' goods. The sales of farmers' goods in Shandong are accelerating, and the secondary producing areas are gradually clearing their warehouses. The resistance to price cuts in the market is strong. In the sales areas, the arrival of goods in the Guangdong Chalong market last week increased slightly compared with the previous week, the market sales improved, downstream customers replenished goods as needed, and the digestion progress was good, with no obvious backlog in the transfer warehouses. Most producing areas have entered the flowering period, and some areas have entered the fruit - setting period. Low - temperature freezing, strong winds, high - temperature drought, etc. have a greater impact on fruit - setting. The fruit - setting in Shaanxi is generally poor. The new season's apples are uncertain, but the strengthening of the spot market is relatively certain. The market is mainly trading on the strong reality, and it is not yet known whether there is a weak expectation. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the weather, fruit - setting, thinning, and bagging in the producing areas. Recently, seasonal fresh fruits will be on the market in large quantities, and the rising temperature may have a certain impact on apples. However, the output of melons has decreased this year, so it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of melon price fluctuations on apples. Currently, there are not many remaining goods in the producing areas, and the ownership of goods is relatively concentrated, and the enthusiasm of merchants to search for goods remains undiminished [2] - **Strategy**: The investment strategy for apples is to be bullish with fluctuations [3] Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for red dates is neutral [6] Core View - Red date futures closed lower yesterday. The Dragon Boat Festival stocking is in an orderly manner. The supply of goods in the sales areas is sufficient, with mostly sub - standard goods arriving. The trading volume of high - quality goods is okay. The red date production in 2024 exceeded expectations, and the market has no obvious differences in the fundamentals of red dates. The peak consumption season for red dates has passed, and the current futures and spot prices are at historical lows. The arrival of goods in the sales areas decreased slightly last week. It is currently the traditional off - season, with an increasing supply of seasonal fruits and a weakening demand for tonics. The market trading atmosphere for red dates is poor. According to the seasonal law of red dates, the off - season for consumption will last until September. Since last week, some downstream traders have started to stock up for the Dragon Boat Festival. It is necessary to pay attention to the recent replenishment intensity, and the sales may improve. The market's focus will shift to the growth of new - season red dates. Currently, the jujube trees in the southern Xinjiang main producing areas have entered the budding stage. Due to the large output of red dates in the 2024 season, there is a problem of over - exhaustion of jujube trees, so the potential hidden dangers in the new - season growth have increased, and the probability of market opportunities arising from the growth situation in the flowering and fruit - setting stages has increased [5] Summary by Directory - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 9,015 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.39%. In Hebei, the spot price of first - grade grey jujubes was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ09 - 715, a change of + 35 from the previous day. In the Xinjiang grey jujube main producing areas, the jujube trees germinate in batches. Currently, the growth is normal, and the earlier - germinated jujube trees have shown flower buds. Jujube farmers are actively carrying out field management, and the bud - rubbing work has started in Hotan. As the weather warms up, it is necessary to pay attention to the growth situation and weather changes in the producing areas. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 10 trucks of goods arrived at the parking area, including both sub - standard and finished products, and the prices vary according to the quality of the arrived goods. The reference price for first - grade jujubes is 8.00 - 8.50 yuan/kg, and the market transaction is average. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 8 trucks of goods arrived, and the mainstream market price remained stable. The prices vary according to the quality of the arrived goods. The reference price for special - grade jujubes is 10.00 - 11.00 yuan/kg, and for first - grade jujubes is 8.60 - 9.20 yuan/kg. Merchants purchase goods as needed, and about 3 trucks of goods were traded [3][4] - **Market Analysis**: Red date futures closed lower yesterday. The Dragon Boat Festival stocking is in an orderly manner. The supply of goods in the sales areas is sufficient, with mostly sub - standard goods arriving. The trading volume of high - quality goods is okay. The red date production in 2024 exceeded expectations, and the market has no obvious differences in the fundamentals of red dates. The peak consumption season for red dates has passed, and the current futures and spot prices are at historical lows. The arrival of goods in the sales areas decreased slightly last week. It is currently the traditional off - season, with an increasing supply of seasonal fruits and a weakening demand for tonics. The market trading atmosphere for red dates is poor. According to the seasonal law of red dates, the off - season for consumption will last until September. Since last week, some downstream traders have started to stock up for the Dragon Boat Festival. It is necessary to pay attention to the recent replenishment intensity, and the sales may improve. Jujube trees are light - loving crops, requiring at least 11 - 12 hours of sunlight per day. Appropriate temperature and humidity conditions are crucial for flowering and fruiting. Excessive drought or low temperature will affect the yield and quality. The market's focus will shift to the growth of new - season red dates. Currently, the jujube trees in the southern Xinjiang main producing areas have entered the budding stage. Due to the large output of red dates in the 2024 season, there is a problem of over - exhaustion of jujube trees, so the potential hidden dangers in the new - season growth have increased, and the probability of market opportunities arising from the growth situation in the flowering and fruit - setting stages has increased [5] - **Strategy**: The investment strategy for red dates is neutral. Currently, the absolute price is at a low level. In the short term, the price of red dates is still supported by the Dragon Boat Festival stocking. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the market opportunities brought about by the impact of the over - exhaustion in the 2024 red date season and weather changes on the growth of new - season red dates [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures may rebound to 3900 - 4000 ringgit, and Dalian palm oil futures may stop falling and rebound around 7800 yuan. US soybean oil demand may be poor, and domestic soybean arrivals will increase, making factory soybean oil supply shift from tight to loose, with a long - term bearish outlook [1]. Meal - US soybeans are in a shock range, with no weather - related speculation currently. Brazilian supply pressure continues, and domestic soybean arrivals are abundant. Domestic supply is expected to recover, and attention should be paid to the support around 2900 [2]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, with little change in supply - demand. Fat - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. Pig prices are expected to remain in a shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the performance of second - round fattening and slaughter [5][6]. Corn - Market supply is tight, and spot prices are strong. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and port inventories need to be digested. In the long - term, corn prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, they may be under pressure [8]. Sugar - Supply concerns are alleviated. Brazilian and Indian sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic supply - demand is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to be in a weak shock pattern after the festival [12]. Cotton - In the short - term, macro factors dominate the market, and there may be large fluctuations. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and domestic cotton prices may show a shock trend [13]. Eggs - In May, demand may support egg prices to remain high and stable. In June, the contradiction of supply exceeding demand may peak, dragging down egg prices. 06 and 07 contracts' previous high - position short orders can be closed at low prices [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: Soybean oil spot and futures prices are stable, palm oil spot and futures prices decline slightly, and rapeseed oil spot and futures prices rise slightly. There are also changes in various spreads [1]. - **Inventory**: Soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories change, and palm oil inventory remains the same [1]. Meal - **Prices**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures prices have minor changes, and soybean prices also show different trends. There are changes in various spreads and oil - meal ratios [2]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans change to different extents [2]. Live Pigs - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts decline slightly, and the position of the main contract increases [5]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or have minor changes, and various spot indicators also show different trends [5]. Corn - **Corn**: Futures prices decline slightly, spot prices are stable, and indicators such as basis, spreads, and inventories change [8]. - **Corn Starch**: Futures prices decline, spot prices rise, and indicators such as basis, spreads, and inventories change [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts decline, and ICE raw sugar prices rise. There are changes in spreads, positions, and inventories [12]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions decline, and import sugar prices also change. There are changes in production, sales, and inventories [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts are stable or have minor changes, and ICE US cotton prices decline. There are changes in spreads, positions, and inventories [13]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions have minor changes, and various indicators such as spreads and import prices change [13]. Eggs - **Prices**: Futures prices of different contracts have minor changes, and spot prices in different regions decline slightly. There are changes in basis, spreads, and other prices [15]. - **Related Indicators**: Prices of egg - laying chicken seedlings, culled chickens, and other related indicators change [15].

2025年05月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：国际油价反弹，短时提供支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：品种间保持偏强 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆小幅反弹，连粕或偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 8 | | 棉花：仍缺乏上涨驱动 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 11 | | 生猪：关注远月套利 | 12 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 棕榈油：国际油价反弹，短时提供支撑 豆油：品种间保持偏强 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 9 日 | | | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,908 7,760 | -0.08% -0.33% | 7,952 7,832 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil may face renewed pressure in the short - term due to concerns about growing May production and slower export growth, with a long - term cautious and bearish view. Domestic palm oil futures are weak, and there is a risk of hitting new lows. CBOT soybeans are affected by potential changes in US biodiesel policies, while domestic soybeans have some support from post - holiday restocking and high order backlogs, but the basis may decline as supply increases [1]. Meal - US soybeans are falling with US soybean oil. The spring sowing progress is fast, and the Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. In May, domestic arrivals are recovering, oil mill operations are increasing, but demand is weak, so the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support around 2900 [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - During the May Day holiday, the live pig spot price was stable. In May, the secondary - fattened pigs are expected to be sold, which will suppress the spot price. The 09 contract has factored in the weak post - holiday expectation. The market has limited upside drivers but no basis for a sharp decline, and the post - holiday slaughter behavior of farmers should be monitored [6]. Corn - The corn supply is tight, and the spot price is strong. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and high port inventories limit the upside. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased demand will support the price. In the short - term, it will fluctuate at a high level and may be pressured by new wheat listings and policy releases. Attention should be paid to the 2240 pressure level [9]. Cotton - In the short - term, the cotton market is dominated by macro factors and may be volatile. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate, and macro trends should be closely watched [12]. Sugar - Supply concerns have eased as the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season has started well. In India, the 24/25 sugar - crushing season is nearing its end. In China, rainfall in Guangxi has alleviated the drought to some extent. The overall domestic supply - demand is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to fluctuate after the holiday [15]. Eggs - Post - holiday replenishment in the downstream market has slightly accelerated the egg sales, but due to supply pressure, the egg price is stable with minor fluctuations. In May, demand may support the price at a high level, while in June, the oversupply may drag down the price. Short - selling is recommended for the 06 and 07 contracts [17]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8240 yuan, down 0.72% from April 30. The futures price of Y2509 is 7900 yuan, down 1.03%. The basis has increased by 6.92%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 33.71% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The current price in Guangdong is 8620 yuan, down 1.49% from April 30. The futures price of P2509 is 8430 yuan, down 2.16%. The basis has increased by 41.79%. The import profit in Guangzhou Port in September has decreased by 487.05% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 9340 yuan, down 0.53% from April 30. The futures price of Ol509 is 9240 yuan, down 0.71%. The basis has increased by 19.05% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 09 - 01 spread has decreased by 12.90%, the palm oil 09 - 01 spread is unchanged, and the rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread has increased by 4.20%. The soybean - palm oil spread has increased by 32.28%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread has decreased by 0.61% [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3200 yuan, down 5.88%. The futures price of M2509 is 2915 yuan, down 0.17%. The basis has decreased by 40.63%. The import profit from Brazil in June has increased by 4.3%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 21.5% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2500 yuan, up 0.81%. The futures price of RM2509 is 2548 yuan, up 0.47%. The basis has increased by 14.29%. The import profit from Canada in July has decreased by 675.00%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 12.14% [3]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3980 yuan, up 0.76%. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4209 yuan, up 0.50%. The basis has increased by 3.78%. The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3640 yuan, up 0.55%. The futures price of the main soybean - two contract is 3536 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis has increased by 73.33%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 28.55% [3]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread has decreased by 4.26%, the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread is unchanged. The oil - meal ratio in the spot market has increased by 5.48%, and in the main contract, it has decreased by 0.75%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market has decreased by 23.91%, and in the 2509 contract, it has decreased by 4.43% [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract has increased by 25.93% to 1020 yuan/ton. The prices of the 2507 and 2509 contracts have increased by 0.41% and 0.36% respectively. The 7 - 9 spread has decreased by 1.08%. The main contract's open interest has increased by 1.48%, and the number of warehouse receipts is unchanged [6]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in different regions have different changes. For example, the price in Henan has increased by 260 yuan/ton, while in Liaoning, it has decreased by 250 yuan/ton. The daily slaughter volume has decreased by 0.87%, the weekly white - strip price has decreased by 100.00%, the weekly piglet price has increased by 0.22%, the weekly sow price is unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight has increased by 0.22%, the weekly self - breeding profit has decreased by 15.09%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit has decreased by 9.49%, and the monthly sow inventory has decreased by 0.66% [6]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the 2507 contract is 2365 yuan, down 0.50%. The Jinzhou Port flat - storage price has increased by 1.32%. The basis has increased by 43.30%. The 7 - 9 spread has increased by 6.67%. The Shekou bulk grain price has increased by 1.29%. The north - south trade profit is unchanged. The CIF price has decreased by 1.27%, and the import profit has increased by 46.19%. The number of early - morning vehicles in Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased by 67.79%. The open interest has decreased by 4.45%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 3.53% [9]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2507 contract is 2741 yuan, down 0.25%. The Changchun spot price and the Weifang delivery price are unchanged. The basis has increased by 5.47%. The 7 - 9 spread has increased by 7.35%. The starch - corn spread has increased by 1.35%. The Shandong starch profit has decreased by 3.01%. The open interest has increased by 0.83%, and the number of warehouse receipts is unchanged [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract is 12745 yuan, down 0.04%. The price of the 2601 contract is 12940 yuan, down 0.15%. The ICE US cotton main contract has decreased by 1.04%. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 7.14%. The main contract's open interest has increased by 1.11%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 0.69%, and the valid forecast has decreased by 9.20% [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B has decreased by 0.57%, the CC Index: 3128B has decreased by 0.49%, the FC Index:M: 1% has increased by 1.84%. The spreads between 3128B and the 01 and 05 contracts have decreased by 6.30% and 6.11% respectively. The spread between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% has decreased by 50.32% [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: The commercial inventory has decreased by 6.7%, the industrial inventory has decreased by 0.5%, the import volume has decreased by 41.7%, the bonded - area inventory has increased by 2.2%, the textile industry's inventory year - on - year has decreased by 4.4%, the yarn inventory days have increased by 3.3%, the grey - cloth inventory days have increased by 1.6%, the cotton outbound shipment volume has increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit has increased by 6.5%, the clothing and textile retail sales are N/A, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and textile retail sales has increased by 9.1%, the textile yarn and fabric export volume has increased by 93.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn and fabric exports has increased by 163.1%, and the clothing and apparel export volume has increased by 68.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and apparel exports has increased by 130.7% [12]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract is 5742 yuan, down 0.07%. The price of the 2509 contract is 5890 yuan, up 0.05%. The ICE raw sugar main contract has decreased by 0.11%. The 1 - 9 spread has decreased by 4.96%. The main contract's open interest has decreased by 0.28%, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased by 0.42%. The valid forecast is unchanged [15]. - **Spot**: The Nanning price has decreased by 0.24%, the Kunming price has decreased by 0.25%. The Nanning basis has decreased by 6.04%, and the Kunming basis has decreased by 12.16%. The imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) price has decreased by 1.23%, and the out - of - quota price has decreased by 1.27%. The spread between in - quota Brazilian sugar and the Nanning price has decreased by 3.72%, and the spread between out - of - quota Brazilian sugar and the Nanning price has decreased by 56.52% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national sugar production cumulative value has increased by 12.27%, the national sugar sales cumulative value has increased by 26.64%. The Guangxi sugar production cumulative value has increased by 5.83%, and the monthly sales value has increased by 6.01%. The national cumulative sugar - sales rate has increased by 12.80%, and the Guangxi cumulative sugar - sales rate has increased by 12.73%. The national industrial inventory has decreased by 1.79%, the Guangxi industrial inventory has decreased by 6.50%, the Yunnan industrial inventory has increased by 0.12%. Sugar imports have increased by 600.00% [15]. Eggs - **Price and Spread**: The price of the 09 contract is 3761 yuan/500KG, down 0.79%. The price of the 06 contract is 2884 yuan, down 1.97%. The egg - producing area price has decreased by 0.88%. The basis has increased by 11.25%. The 9 - 6 spread has decreased by 3.21%. The egg - chicken chick price has decreased by 1.18%, the culled - chicken price has increased by 0.96%, the egg - feed ratio has increased by 1.51%, and the breeding profit has increased by 29.39% [17].

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年5月7日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | | | | | гнен | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8240 | 8300 | -60 | -0.72% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7900 | 7982 | -82 | -1.03% | | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 340 | 318 | 22 | 6.92% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏5月 | 09+420 | 09+380 | 40 | - | | | 仓单 | | 5355 | 4005 | 1350 | 33.71% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 2月6日 | 4月30日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8620 | 8750 | -130 | -1.49% | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View After the May Day holiday, the oil and fat sector continued to decline, with palm oil leading the drop. The egg price gap dropped, and the apple price fluctuated greatly. Different agricultural products showed different trends due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to decline after May Day. The production in the palm oil - producing areas increased smoothly, and the inventory was expected to rise. The domestic purchase volume increased and the cost decreased. Technical indicators showed weakness. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7880 and resistance at 8000 [3][4] (2) Soybean Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined. The external market price dropped, and the domestic supply was expected to improve. Technical indicators turned weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7714 and resistance at 7742 [5] (3) Soybean Meal - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to decline with oscillations. The external market price was under pressure, and the domestic supply was expected to increase. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2930 [7] (4) Corn - Key points: The main 2507 contract of corn rose first and then fell with oscillations, but the upward trend remained unchanged. Factors such as low remaining grain, reduced imports, and increased demand supported the price. Technical indicators were strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position at low prices, with support at 2358 and resistance at 2384 [9] (5) Live Pigs - Key points: The 2509 contract of live pigs first declined and then rose with oscillations, but the downward trend remained. The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was insufficient. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position at high prices, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [12] (6) Sugar - Key points: The main 2509 contract of sugar opened low and closed high with oscillations. Good sales and approaching peak consumption season supported the price. The price was still under the moving - average pressure. The recommended strategy was short - term trading, with support at 5866 and resistance at 5900 [13][15] (7) Eggs - Key points: The main 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline with a large gap. The supply was sufficient, and the demand decreased during the holiday. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [16] (8) Cotton - Key points: The main 2509 contract of cotton opened high and closed low. The textile industry entered the off - season, and the demand was weak. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 12600 and resistance at 12800 [18] (9) Apples - Key points: The main 2510 contract of apples opened high and closed low with large fluctuations, but the upward trend remained. Good sales during the holiday, low inventory, and possible yield reduction supported the price. Technical indicators showed an upward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a long position at low prices, with support at 7908 and resistance at 8000 [22] (10) Soybean No.1 - Key points: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded. The reduction of remaining grain supported the price. Technical indicators turned strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position, with support at 4176 and resistance at 4246 [23][26]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Operation ratings for different agricultural products: unclear ratings for "ななな" (soybean No.1), "女女女" (soybean meal), ☆☆☆ for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn; ★☆★ for pig and egg [1] Core Views - Short - term attention should be paid to the supply pattern change of imported soybeans from tight to loose, and also to policy and supply - demand changes [2] - The soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term, and its upward momentum will weaken when Brazilian soybean procurement speeds up and North American weather risks decrease [3] - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate repeatedly due to factors such as low procurement progress of Chinese third - quarter soybean shipments and palm oil's production increase period [4] - The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and investors can pay attention to later long - position opportunities [6] - The corn futures continue to rise, and the market situation may expand after the domestic grain - right conversion is completed [7] - The pig futures are weak, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices as the number and weight of pig slaughter increase [8] - The egg price is expected to be weak in the long - term due to factors such as seasonal decline and capacity release [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract significantly reduced positions before the holiday, and the reserve soybeans are still being released. After the May Day holiday, soybean supply will change from tight to loose, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and supply - demand [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Near the May Day holiday, soybean meal significantly reduced positions. After the holiday, the supply pattern will change, and attention should be paid to the pressure on spot and basis. The soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the May Day holiday, soybean oil and palm oil were relatively resistant to decline. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the pressure on soybean oil spot and basis. The prices of the two oils will fluctuate repeatedly [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - After the May Day holiday, the soybean shortage situation will ease. The proportion of soybean meal in feed is expected to decrease. The domestic inventory of rapeseed products has declined, and the downward space of rapeseed meal is limited [6] Corn - Corn futures continue to rise. The port inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream processing capacity has recovered. There are differences among traders, and the market situation may expand [7] Pig - The pig futures are weak, and the 11 - month contract hit a new low. The spot price is stable. The number and weight of pig slaughter are expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the decline of spot prices [8] Egg - The egg spot price is weak, and the futures price declined before the holiday. After the holiday, the demand will be weak, and the egg price is expected to be weak in the long - term [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Affected by concerns over production growth, it fell below 4,000 ringgit and is expected to test the support at 3,500 ringgit in the long - term. In China, Dalian palm oil futures adjusted downward, with short - term support expected around 8,000 - 8,100 yuan. It's advisable to take profits before the May Day holiday [1]. - Soybean oil: The USDA monthly report lowered the US soybean oil's ending inventory, but the positive news has been reflected in the price. US biodiesel consumption has slowed down. In China, spot prices mostly fell, with some regions rising due to higher basis quotes. Factory supply is tight, and inventory is low, keeping spot quotes strong in the short - term [1]. Meal - The US soybean market is in a shock range, with no weather - related speculation yet and continuous demand concerns. Brazil's supply pressure is being realized, and China's soybean arrivals are abundant. Short - term domestic soybean meal is affected by slow customs clearance, with low oil mill operation rates and falling inventories. The basis has been rising, but the market's willingness to buy at high prices is limited. In May, the basis is expected to decline. Wait for the market to stabilize before considering long - term long positions [3]. Live Pigs - The previous entry of second - fattening pigs pushed up prices, but terminal follow - up is difficult. Recently, second - fattening transactions have declined, and pig prices have fallen. The fat - to - standard price difference is narrowing, and demand is weak. Pig prices are expected to remain in a shock pattern. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,800 yuan. Pay attention to second - fattening pig sales around May Day [5]. Corn - The market has strong bullish sentiment, and spot prices are rising. The remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost gone, and traders in the Northeast are strongly holding prices. In North China, farmers are reluctant to sell. The downstream has rigid demand for restocking, but high port inventories limit the upside. In the long - term, supply tightening and recovering demand will support corn prices, but new - season wheat substitution may cause short - term corrections. Be cautious when chasing up prices [7]. White Sugar - Brazil's new sugar - crushing season is starting, and Thailand's production is expected to increase. The market expects an increase in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, which will put long - term pressure on prices. ICE raw sugar will fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. Rain in Guangxi has alleviated the drought to some extent. The issuance of import licenses and import volume will dominate the market. Domestic supply and demand are loosening, and sugar prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock pattern [9]. Cotton - Cotton prices are mainly affected by macro factors. Pay attention to the development of the US - initiated tariff war. If tariffs are reduced in the short - term, it will be positive for the market; otherwise, it will be negative in the medium - term. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and inventories are slightly accumulating, but the pressure is not large. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate. Keep an eye on macro trends [11]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively abundant, and demand is decreasing. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying. Egg prices are expected to decline slightly this week and then stabilize [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On April 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,370 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.76%) from April 25. The futures price of Y2509 was 7,866 yuan, down 1.60%. The basis was - 128 yuan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,035 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on April 28 was 9,080 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.63%) from April 25. The futures price of P2509 was 8,566 yuan, down 1.70%. The basis was 514 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 0 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil on April 28 was 9,400 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.57%) from April 25. The futures price of O1509 was 9,305 yuan, down 1.65%. The basis was 95 yuan, and the warehouse receipts decreased from 1,634 to 1,357 [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,500 yuan, down 300 yuan (- 7.89%) from the previous value. The futures price of M2509 was 2,985 yuan, down 1.52%. The basis was 515 yuan, down 33.03%. The warehouse receipts were 10,600, unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,580 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 2.27%) from the previous value. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,641 yuan, down 1.60%. The basis was - 61 yuan, down 38.64%. The warehouse receipts increased from 1,000 to 2,000 [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,950 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,225 yuan, down 0.28%. The basis was - 275 yuan, up 4.18%. The warehouse receipts increased by 13.37% to 10,981 [3]. Live Pigs - **Futures**: The main contract price was 790 yuan/ton, up 2.60%. The price of the live - pig 2507 contract was 13,485 yuan, down 0.41%; the 2509 contract was 14,130 yuan, down 0.14%. The 7 - 9 spread was 645 yuan, up 5.74%. The main - contract positions increased by 1.48% to 73,369, and the warehouse receipts were 705 [5]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, and other regions remained unchanged. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.56% to 147,162 heads. The weekly white - strip price dropped by 100.00% to 0.00 yuan, the weekly piglet price dropped by 3.79% to 26.94 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.51 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.29% to 128.94 kg, and the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 26.05% to 100 yuan [5]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2507 contract was 2,361 yuan, up 1.07%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,270 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis was - 91 yuan, down 19.74%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 19 yuan, unchanged. The positions increased by 3.12% to 2,305,598, and the warehouse receipts increased by 40.44% to 112,229 [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2507 contract was 2,721 yuan, up 0.44%. The Changchun spot price was 2,590 yuan, unchanged; the Weifang spot price was 2,760 yuan, unchanged. The basis was - 131 yuan, down 10.08%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 79 yuan, down 25.40%. The positions increased by 4.13% to 353,656, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,450 [7]. White Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the sugar 2505 contract was 6,189 yuan, up 0.23%; the 2509 contract was 5,977 yuan, up 0.05%. The ICE raw - sugar main contract was 17.83 cents/lb, down 1.82%. The 5 - 9 spread was 212 yuan, up 5.47%. The positions increased by 1.69% to 338,467 hands, the warehouse receipts were 28,756, unchanged, and the valid forecasts increased by 12.37% to 3,270 [9]. - **Spot**: The Nanning spot price was 6,220 yuan, up 0.16%; the Kunming spot price was 6,070 yuan, up 1.17%. The Nanning basis was 31 yuan, down 11.43%; the Kunming basis was - 119 yuan, up 32.00% [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the cotton 2505 contract was 12,675 yuan, down 0.39%; the 2509 contract was 12,950 yuan, down 0.31%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 67.56 cents/lb, down 1.66%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 275 yuan, down 3.77%. The positions decreased by 0.30% to 570,462 hands, the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.72% to 10,479, and the valid forecasts increased by 1.14% to 1,960 [11]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 13,998 yuan, unchanged; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,244 yuan, up 0.07%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,956 yuan, down 0.56%. The 3128B - 01 contract basis was 1,323 yuan, up 3.93%; the 3128B - 05 contract basis was 1,048 yuan, up 3.97%; the CC Index of 3128B - FC Index of M: 1% was 288 yuan, up 44.00% [11]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3,812 yuan/500KG, down 0.16%; the 05 contract was 3,133 yuan/500KG, down 0.98%. The 9 - 5 spread was 679 yuan, up 3.82%. The basis was 315 yuan, down 9.92% [14]. - **Related Prices**: The egg - laying chicken chick price was 4.25 yuan/feather, unchanged; the culled - chicken price was 5.19 yuan/jin, up 2.77%; the egg - to - feed ratio was 2.69, up 1.51%; the breeding profit was - 6.03 yuan/feather, up 29.39% [14].