Group 1 - The outlook for the US stock market in the coming year is optimistic, particularly for the technology and financial sectors, supported by corporate earnings performance and the prospect of interest rate cuts [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 12.5 times, which is considered reasonable. There is a positive outlook for technology stocks and chip-related themes, bolstered by government policy support, with a high likelihood of stock price increases in the next six months, barring geopolitical events [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the first quarter of next year, as it coincides with the end of Chairman Powell's term. Bond prices may experience volatility due to related news, leading to a cautious preference for investments in bonds with a maturity of three years or less and investment-grade corporate bonds [1]

2025年11月20日，美国国会众议员沃伦·戴维森（Warren Davidson）正式提交了备受瞩目的《Bitcoin for America Act（美国比特币法案）》。这一历史性立 法的提出，不仅标志着加密资产正式寻求进入美国联邦财政体系的核心地带，更被视为美国在国家层面重新定义数字资产战略的关键一步。 该法案的核心愿景在于通过立法手段，将比特币这一去中心化的数字资产转化为增强美国国家资产负债表实力的战略工具，从而在全球金融格局剧烈变革 的当下，确保美国在数字经济领域的绝对领导地位。 《美国比特币法案》最引人注目的创新之处，在于其从根本上改变了联邦政府获取比特币的途径。根据法案条款，美国公民将获得使用比特币缴纳联邦税 款的合法权利。 这一举措打破了传统法币缴税的单一路径，更关键的是，法案明确规定纳税人在进行此类转移时，将根据比特币转移时的市场价值计算税额，且无需为此 缴纳资本利得税。 这一免除资本利得税的条款极具战略眼光。在现行税制下，使用加密货币支付往往会被视为资产出售，从而触发税务事件，这极大地抑制了比特币的流通 与支付属性。 戴维森的提案消除了这一摩擦成本，实际上是激励纳税人将手中的数字资产转移给 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-05 沙特下调1⽉对亚洲的OSP价格，原油 震荡化⼯偏弱 俄乌谈判进展缓慢，原油价格延续震荡整理。当前乌克兰谈判代表将 在佛罗里达州举行新一轮会谈，而俄罗斯总统普京表示，美国支持的和平 计划中部分内容"不可接受"，这一最新信号表明短期内冲突结束的可能 性极低。同时，特朗普再次重申，"很快"将开始在委内瑞拉境内打击贩 毒集团，美军已在该地区集结兵力。原油中期格局趋弱，短期受到地缘不 确定性的支撑，仍将延续震荡整理。未来的变量可能在于俄乌谈判的达 成，或者是俄罗斯贴水持续回落后买盘的回归。沙特下调了1月对亚洲的O SP价格，该举措通常被认为是对需求偏弱的确认或是抢占市场份额。 板块逻辑： 美国天然气期货价格在周三升至35个月高位，LNG出口工厂的流入量 创下纪录高位，且天气预报显示气温将下降，天然气的上涨带动了乙烷价 格的走高。乙烷是乙烯和乙二醇的重要原料，乙烷的走高，乙烯和乙二醇 价格的走弱，当前乙烷裂解的利润快速下滑，这有可能影响后期美国乙二 醇的生产。美国是排在沙特后面的第二大乙二醇出口国，占全球乙二醇出 口比例 ...

布伦丹・纳尔逊（Brendan Nelson）凭借数十年从业经验出任汇丰银行新任董事长，其履历中包括曾担 任多家银行的首席审计师，而这些银行后来在金融危机期间陷入困境。 周三，汇丰银行宣布任命这位前毕马威（KPMG）高管为新任董事长。此前，该行耗时一年寻找外部候 选人，却未能找到合适人选。 外界普遍认为，此次任命属于过渡性安排，原因有二：一是纳尔逊已 76 岁高龄，二是他缺乏亚洲市场 经验 —— 而这家总部位于伦敦的银行，其大量收入来自亚洲。 自今年 10 月起，纳尔逊一直以临时董事长身份履职。这一职位是全球金融领域要求最高的职位之一， 不仅需要频繁出差，还需具备出色的外交手腕，以弥合东西方之间的地缘政治分歧。 这位苏格兰人在英国最广为人知的经历，是在金融危机爆发前伦敦金融城（City of London）的繁荣时 期，负责毕马威全球金融服务业务。金融危机后，英国议员及其他人士批评审计机构为那些最终倒闭的 银行出具了合格的财务审计报告。 2008 年至 2009 年期间，英国多家大型银行需要政府救助，毕马威也因此陷入舆论指责的漩涡。其中， 毕马威的客户之一 —— 苏格兰哈里法克斯银行（HBOS）在获得无保留意 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's short - term core factor is geopolitics, with a pessimistic view on the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and an expectation of risk escalation in the Caribbean region. Aromatics (PX, PTA, BZ, EB) and methanol are short - term long - core varieties in the chemical industry [2][4]. - The supply - demand and macro drivers of crude oil are weak in the short term, but geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. There are short - term long opportunities and mid - term short opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Logic: Supply - demand and macro drivers are weak. Short - term US high - frequency data is strong, and before a large - scale inventory build - up, the oversupply trading is difficult to restart. Geopolitical factors are the main driver in December, with a short - term long view and mid - term short opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Styrene - Logic: There is an unexpected inventory build - up during the seasonal de - stocking period, and there are still concerns about over - inventory. There are short - term fundamental contradictions and large mid - term differences. It is necessary to pay attention to the continuation of the gasoline - blending logic and future imports. Be cautious about the pulse - type upward movement of crude oil due to potential geopolitical escalation [7]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in short - term oscillation, and the structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly and 15 - minute cycles after the stop - loss of long positions [8][9]. Rubber - Logic: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand has no significant increase, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia. The inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing. The market should be treated with an oscillation view [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: It is traded around butadiene. The butadiene inventory has reached a five - year high in the past two weeks, and the price is under pressure. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the low valuation lacks short - selling space. Be cautious about the pulse - type upward movement of crude oil due to potential geopolitical escalation [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The supply - demand is neutral to positive, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected market. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and strong fundamentals in the chemical industry are likely to attract long - position funds. The long - position view is maintained [18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 6700 [18]. PTA - Logic: The polyester has little pressure, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected market. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and strong fundamentals in the chemical industry are likely to attract long - position funds. The long - position view is maintained [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 4620 [20]. PP - Logic: It still faces the pressure of olefin capacity to be put into production, with high supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is negative, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: The over - expected maintenance in Iran has led to the shutdown of multiple methanol plants. With the temperature dropping in December, a full - scale shutdown is likely. After the market over - traded the expectation of insufficient gas restrictions, the market has room for upward correction. The port de - stocking rate is accelerating. The withdrawal of crowded short positions on the previous trading board brings a large upward space [24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and short - term oscillation. After testing the support without breaking it, the upward structure continues. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2100 [25][27]. PVC - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand. The social inventory is still increasing, and there is no upward drive [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The technical structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Multiple MEG plants in Iran are under maintenance, but the domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity addition. Inventory build - up continues. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 3920. The strategy is to wait and see in the single - side hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - Logic: The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the supply pressure from the upstream olefin capacity addition remains. The supply - demand is still weak. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 6825. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the production cut in the downstream glass production line suppresses the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward drive remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions unilaterally decreases [36]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. After a reduction in positions and a decline, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 1195. The remaining short positions in the hourly cycle should be held cautiously with a stop - profit at 1195 [36]. Caustic Soda - Logic: New capacity is put into production, and most plants have resumed operation after maintenance, resulting in high supply pressure. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and the demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in supply - demand [39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. After an increase in positions and a decline, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 2220. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [39].

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 4 日 星期四 纯苯现实承压偏弱，苯乙烯供应回升 一、 日度市场总结 纯苯：纯苯短期仍处于弱现实与强预期的震荡结构。此前市场关注的海 外调油逻辑在汽油累库、裂解价差回落以及芳烃整体回调后明显弱化， 支撑情绪有所降温。现实端压力在 12 月集中体现，节奏性到港增多叠加 主流买方提货有限，使港口胀库情况加剧，部分库区甚至面临仓储费上 涨压力。需求方面延续淡季特征，CPL 因行业自律减产继续下滑，纯苯消 耗仍偏弱；苯酚、苯胺及己二酸虽有 1 月后的装置恢复计划，但当前实 际改善有限。供应端来看，国内炼厂仍存检修降负预期，韩国歧化与裂解 利润维持低位，使市场对 2026 年初供应收缩的远月逻辑依旧存在。进口 方面，市场对 1 月后进口量预期差较大，对加工费形成不确定性。总体 判断，12 月依旧是纯苯压力最集中时期，在库存累增、需求偏弱的背景 下维持低位震荡。 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 3 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.32%，报 6585 元/吨，基差 115（+64 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.24%，报 5441 元/吨。 成本：12 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | OPEC+维持产量政策不变，淡季供给过剩仍主导市场走势。地缘：俄乌地 缘仍有扰动，乌克兰袭击 CPC 管道，短期提振油价；核心驱动：淡季供 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原 | | ★ | | 油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关 | | | | 注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续 | | | | 持有。 | | | | 成本支撑下降，需求下降，液化气承压回落。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下，沙特上调 12 月份 CP 合同价，但盘面已计价； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左右，下游化工需求存在韧性； | | | | 库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 现货跟涨不足，盘面维持升水结构。国内开工季节性回升，月内到港资源 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical and energy dynamics between Russia and China, particularly focusing on the construction of the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline, which aims to reshape energy exports and economic relations in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][22]. Group 1: Energy Strategy and Market Dynamics - Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has lost approximately 70% of its energy export market, prompting a strategic pivot towards China as a new market for its natural gas [3][14]. - The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline is expected to transport up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually, which is about one-third of Russia's previous exports to Europe [9][14]. - The project is not only an economic initiative but also a strategic lifeline for Russia, aiming to demonstrate its ability to adapt and reshape its export landscape despite Western sanctions [5][22]. Group 2: Technical and Logistical Challenges - The pipeline will span over 2,600 kilometers, starting from the Yamal Peninsula and passing through Mongolia before reaching northern China, facing significant technical and geographical challenges [9][10]. - The construction involves complex negotiations regarding route selection, environmental assessments, and investment sharing among the three countries involved [10][12]. Group 3: Pricing Negotiations and Economic Implications - Pricing has emerged as a central issue in negotiations, with Russia seeking a "decent" price that reflects its economic interests and national dignity, while China insists on market-driven pricing [7][18]. - Initial investment for the pipeline is projected to exceed $13 billion, with ongoing maintenance and transportation costs also being significant factors in the negotiations [16][18]. - The outcome of these pricing discussions will have profound implications for Russia's economic recovery in the Far East, China's energy security, and the overall energy landscape in Eurasia [20][23].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 俄乌停战谈判有新进展，主要国家降息预期降低，黄金高位调整。黄金中长期地缘 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期交割逼仓以及低库存引发白银大涨，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。不过现货 高升水、白银期货波动率飙升，昨日上期所库存增加，短期不宜追高，关注波动风 | | ★★ | 不宜追高 | 险。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储内部分歧严重，美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 不及预期，国内淡季去库，非美铜库存 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 或逐渐告急，伦铜和沪铜均高位回落，建议不要盲目追高，多单逐渐逢高止盈，中 | | ★ | | 长期，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观情绪缓和，国内淡季去库，出口积极，现货逢低采购提供价格支撑，短期锌受 | | ★ | 反弹 | 阻于 22800 压力位，宽幅震荡。中长期看，锌供增需减，维持反弹逢高沽空观点。 | | 铅 | 承压 | 12 月原生铅、再生铅检修与复产并存，整体有 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant shift in the global landscape since Trump's presidency, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where he unexpectedly sided with Russia, causing anger among European nations [1] - Spain's "El País" editorial emphasizes that the U.S. is no longer an ally but a rival or even an enemy to Europe, urging Europe to act decisively to maintain its geopolitical influence [1] - Trump's imposition of tariffs on European goods, including a 10% basic tariff and a 20% reciprocal tariff, has severely impacted European economies, leading to a situation where Europe feels like a subordinate to the U.S. [3] Group 2 - Trump's approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict involved pressuring Ukraine for compromises and refusing to support new aid plans, which has left Europe concerned about its ability to handle Russia independently [6] - The article discusses two potential strategies for Europe to achieve independence from U.S. influence: a cautious self-building strategy and a more confrontational approach against U.S. threats [8] - Recent actions by European countries, such as France's reinstatement of conscription and Germany's increased defense budget, indicate a shift towards a more assertive stance against the U.S. [9] Group 3 - The article suggests that if Europe can achieve independence, it could lead to a more autonomous partnership with China, enhancing bilateral trade and cooperation in sectors like electric vehicles and green energy [9][10] - The geopolitical separation between Europe and the U.S. could contribute to a multipolar order, reducing U.S. influence and potentially allowing for stronger China-Europe relations [9][10] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict serves as a catalyst for Europe to reflect on its dependence on the U.S. and consider China as a more suitable partner for future cooperation [10]