1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry - wide investment ratings. Instead, it provides trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, rubber has a trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend; while many commodities like synthetic rubber, LLDPE (in some cases), and methanol have a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral trend [4][7][10]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and price trends of multiple energy - chemical commodities. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation, cost factors, and external influencing factors. For instance, some commodities are affected by raw material price fluctuations, while others are influenced by seasonal demand changes, production capacity adjustments, and geopolitical events [10][14][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Rubber - **Price Trend**: Expected to be oscillating strongly. The main contract's price increased on both the day and night sessions, with the day - closing price rising from 17,030 yuan/ton to 17,240 yuan/ton, and the night - closing price from 17,180 yuan/ton to 17,315 yuan/ton. The open - interest also increased [4]. - **Market Conditions**: After the Spring Festival, most tire enterprises resumed production as planned, with semi - steel tire orders in February better than those of all - steel tires. Market orders are better than last year, and trading is expected to improve [6]. Synthetic Rubber - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate downward. The main contract's price decreased, with the day - closing price dropping from 13,140 yuan/ton to 13,045 yuan/ton, and the open - interest also decreasing [7]. - **Market Conditions**: As of February 25, 2026, domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber inventory increased significantly compared to before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, with the upper pressure coming from the weakening fundamentals and the lower support from international energy prices and international butadiene prices [8][9]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Crude oil provides strong cost support, but its own supply - demand pattern is average. After the holiday, the demand for mulch films is expected to improve, and the packaging film industry will gradually recover. The supply - side contradictions are not significant for now [10][11]. - **PP**: The C3 raw material is strong, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production capacity before the 2605 contract, and the supply - demand game among existing capacities intensifies. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [10][11]. Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: The near - month delivery pressure is high, but the cost still provides support. The 05 - contract futures price is 2167 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 167 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Conditions**: During the Spring Festival, liquid chlorine was weak, which supported the caustic soda price. After the festival, due to high inventory, the short - term sharp increase space is limited. The market will first deal with the delivery pressure and then consider future production reduction expectations and improved downstream demand [14]. Pulp - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate. The main contract's price had a slight increase during the day session and a decrease during the night session. The open - interest decreased [19]. - **Market Conditions**: The futures market oscillated at a high level, and the spot market remained stable after the price increase. The demand side is favorable, but there is also pressure from port inventory accumulation. The price of household paper is expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the inventory and downstream procurement sentiment [20][21]. Glass - **Price Trend**: The original sheet price is stable. The futures price increased slightly, with the 05 - contract closing at 1064 yuan/ton, up 1.53% [23]. - **Market Conditions**: After the Spring Festival, domestic float glass factories plan to raise prices, but the downstream market starts slowly. The implementation of the new price needs further follow - up [23]. Methanol - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate. The main contract's price decreased, with the closing price dropping from 2285 yuan/ton to 2249 yuan/ton [26]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot price index decreased slightly. The port inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, with the upper pressure at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton and the lower support at 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton [28][29]. Urea - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate in the short - term. The main contract's price decreased, with the closing price dropping from 1855 yuan/ton to 1838 yuan/ton [31]. - **Market Conditions**: As of February 25, 2026, the total inventory of urea enterprises increased significantly. In the short - term, the futures price will enter an oscillating pattern, and the medium - term focus is on the start of the grass - roots market [32][33]. Styrene - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The prices of each contract decreased slightly [34]. - **Market Conditions**: During the Spring Festival, the overseas styrene price was strong, and the domestic port inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, it will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the destocking amplitude after March and the restart progress of marginal devices [35]. Soda Ash - **Price Trend**: The spot market has little change. The futures price increased, with the 05 - contract closing at 1191 yuan/ton, up 2.58% [37]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable, with enterprises' device operation oscillating and downstream demand in a wait - and - see state. In the short - term, the market will adjust weakly and stably [37]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply tightened, and the night - session price soared. The prices of each contract had different degrees of increase and decrease [40]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand remained tight, and the spot price was stable. The prices of each contract also had different degrees of increase and decrease [40]. - **Market Conditions**: Saudi Arabia cancelled the FOB loading plan from March 1 - 24 due to a facility failure, which led to a sharp rise in the international paper - cargo price. There are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [45][46]. PVC - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The 05 - contract futures price is 4963 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 243 yuan/ton [48]. - **Market Conditions**: The PVC market's high - production and high - inventory structure remains unchanged. In 2026, the supply - side production reduction during the maintenance peak season may exceed expectations, which is beneficial to the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry [48]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rebounded, and the weakness was temporarily alleviated. The prices of each contract decreased [50]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price dropped from a high level, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas market slightly shrank. The prices of each contract also decreased [50]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Price Trend**: Should be treated with an oscillating mindset. The prices of each contract decreased [52]. - **Market Conditions**: The short - term price was under pressure due to Maersk's price cut in the 11th week of March. In the medium - and long - term, the uncertainty lies in the resumption of shipping routes. Different contracts have different investment suggestions [61][63][64]. Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Staple Fiber**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The futures price decreased, the spot price was mostly stable, and the downstream demand was weak [66]. - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillated and decreased, the factory price was mostly stable, and the market trading atmosphere improved [67]. Offset Printing Paper - **Price Trend**: It is recommended to wait and see. The spot price and cost of each paper type remained stable, and the futures price had a slight decrease [69]. - **Market Conditions**: The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets were stable, the market started slowly after the holiday, and the trading was light. The industry was in a wait - and - see mood [70][72]. Pure Benzene - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The prices of each contract decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly [74]. - **Market Conditions**: As of February 24, 2026, the port inventory of pure benzene increased. The market atmosphere was average on the day, and the trading volume decreased [75][76].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: US tariff policies and Middle - East geopolitical issues have increased risk - aversion sentiment, but Fed officials' remarks have dampened rate - cut expectations, so gold may continue to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2] - Silver: Multiple Fed officials' remarks have dampened rate - cut expectations, and risk - aversion sentiment has suppressed risk appetite and silver's bullish sentiment. Silver follows gold and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2] - Coking Coal: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mine production will accelerate, but the supply is still restricted. The fundamental contradictions of coking coal are not prominent, and the spot is expected to oscillate, while the futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations due to capital sentiment [4] - Rebar: Steel enterprise production accidents have limited impact on long - process rebar output, and short - process output recovery takes time. Overall output will remain at a low level. After the holiday, supply and demand are both weak, and there is pressure from high inventory. However, there are macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, so the downside is limited [4] - Iron Ore: After the holiday, iron - water production increase and steel enterprises' inventory digestion co - exist, and the demand expectation for iron ore is average. Considering the expected increase in supply arrivals, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation. Due to the macro expectations driven by the Two Sessions and possible weather disturbances on the supply side, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5] - Crude Oil: US crude oil inventory has increased far beyond expectations, and people are cautious before the US - Iran nuclear talks. The supply pressure of crude oil still exists, and short - term trading is recommended [6] - Natural Rubber: Overseas production areas are gradually entering the production - reduction period, and the prices of overseas natural rubber futures and raw materials have risen. China's bonded - area inventory has accumulated, and the demand side has the expectation of improvement. Overall, natural rubber is expected to oscillate strongly [7] - PX: PX has a high operating rate, the terminal off - season atmosphere is obvious, and the downstream polyester operating rate has been declining. The processing fee has slightly declined. The previous rise in oil prices due to geopolitical reasons has provided some support. Short - term trading is recommended [8] - Copper: The inventory has reached a five - year high, bringing "weak reality" pressure. After the holiday, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, but the pace and strength of recovery need further observation. High inventory suppresses short - term prices, while tight supply at the mine end provides long - term support. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Plastic: The supply side has sufficient inventory, and the demand side has slow resumption of work and insufficient replenishment. The cost of crude oil is relatively stable. Plastic production enterprises' inventory has increased, and the demand is still weak, so it is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly in the short term [9] - Methanol: The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, and the port inventory is also high. After the holiday, some downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work. The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] - Long - term Treasury Bonds: Risk - aversion sentiment may increase, and the MLF has been renewed in an increased amount after the holiday, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, the stock - bond seesaw may be negative for the bond market. The bond market is expected to oscillate in a triangular - convergence pattern [11] - Aluminum: The early resumption of production at an Icelandic smelter is a marginal repair signal for overseas supply. The global electrolytic aluminum supply shows a pattern of "overseas fluctuations and domestic rigidity". The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, and there is great pressure from new capacity. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [14] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Trump's speech on tariff policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation have increased risk - aversion sentiment, but Fed officials' remarks have dampened rate - cut expectations, weakening the upward momentum of gold [2] Silver - Multiple Fed officials' remarks have dampened rate - cut expectations, and risk - aversion sentiment has suppressed silver's bullish sentiment. It follows gold and is expected to oscillate at a high level [2] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 48.9%, with a 32.5% decrease compared to the previous period. The daily output of raw coal has decreased by 72.2 tons to 108.6 tons, and the inventory has slightly increased. The daily output of clean coal has decreased by 28.4 tons to 45.9 tons, and the inventory has decreased by 9.6 tons. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production will accelerate, but the supply is still restricted [4] Rebar - On February 25, domestic steel market prices showed mixed trends. The price of billets in Tangshan has increased, and the average price of rebar has decreased slightly. Steel enterprise production accidents have limited impact on long - process output, and short - process output recovery takes time. After the holiday, supply and demand are both weak, and there is pressure from high inventory, but the downside is limited due to macro disturbances [4] Iron Ore - From February 16 - 22, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3320.9 tons, an increase of 631.0 tons compared to the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2713.3 tons, an increase of 598.4 tons. After the holiday, iron - water production increase and inventory digestion co - exist, and the demand expectation is average. Considering the expected increase in supply arrivals, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation [5] Crude Oil - As of February 20, 2026, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 8.51245 billion barrels, an increase of 15.989 million barrels compared to the previous week. The commercial crude oil inventory was 4.35804 billion barrels, also an increase of 15.989 million barrels. The gasoline inventory decreased by 10.11 million barrels. The daily crude oil output was 13.702 million barrels, a decrease of 330,000 barrels compared to the previous week but an increase of 2 million barrels compared to the same period last year. OPEC + may increase the daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in April [6] Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 67.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 56.5 Thai baht/kg. As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade areas was 667,700 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons compared to the previous period. Overseas production areas are entering the production - reduction period, and the downstream is gradually resuming work [7] PX - The 800,000 - ton PX plant of Sinochem Quanzhou has started production, and the estimated PX output in February is 3.08 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 93.39%. The expected output of the PTA market in the next period is 5.7 million tons. As of February 24, the price difference between PX and naphtha was 310 US dollars/ton [8] Copper - As of February 24, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper in mainstream areas has increased by 154,900 tons during the Spring Festival, exceeding 500,000 tons, reaching a five - year high. After the holiday, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the import demand has increased [8] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6737 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The weekly output of LLDPE is 329,100 tons, a decrease of 3.15%. The production enterprise inventory is 252,400 tons, an increase of 78.5%. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products has decreased by 3.8% [9] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The port inventory of Chinese methanol is 1.4467 million tons, an increase of 14,500 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises is 535,300 tons, an increase of 195,000 tons. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 205,800 tons, a decrease of 109,300 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol is 92.75%, an increase of 0.68%. The total operating rate of downstream industries is 69.63%, a decrease of 0.63% [10] Long - term Treasury Bonds - The US trade representative may take tariff measures, which may increase risk - aversion sentiment. After the holiday, the MLF has been renewed in an increased amount, and the capital market is loose, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, the stock - bond seesaw may be negative for the bond market [11] Aluminum - Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter will resume production in April 2026, 6 months earlier than expected. The plant has an annual capacity of 320,000 tons and was shut down by two - thirds in October 2025 due to a power failure. It is expected to be close to full production by the end of July [13] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1219 yuan/ton, and the price is stable. The weekly output of soda ash is 774,300 tons, a decrease of 1.22%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44%. The operating rate of float glass is 71.07%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points. The average price of float glass is 1126 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. The total inventory of float - glass sample enterprises is 55.352 million heavy boxes, an increase of 4.31% [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, on February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's practice of imposing tariffs globally under the IEEPA was invalid. Trump then imposed a 10% tariff under Section 122 and raised it to 15%, while launching multiple trade investigations. The US Q4 2025 real GDP initial annualized growth was 1.4%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 2.8% and the previous value of 4.4%. The market risk appetite was weak, with precious metals strong, industrial metals and US stocks under pressure, and the 10Y US Treasury yield falling to 4.04%. [2] - Domestically, during the Spring Festival, the passenger flow and consumption data were generally positive. The national Spring Festival travel cross - regional passenger transport reached a record high, and holiday consumption increased steadily. In February, it was an economic data and policy vacuum period, and the market focus might shift to the economic situation at the beginning of the year and the policy expectations of the Two Sessions in early March. [3] - For precious metals, the uncertainty of US tariffs increased, and gold and silver prices strengthened. The inflation in the US showed sticky characteristics, and the Fed's internal policy differences were significant, suppressing the market's rapid interest - rate cut expectations. Trump's confrontation with the Supreme Court added uncertainty, and it was expected that gold prices would continue to be volatile and strong, while silver prices would maintain high volatility. [4][5] - For copper, although the US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs did not directly affect copper, Trump's tariff increase and geopolitical factors led to an increase in market risk aversion. The reduction of future production expectations of key mines and the potential mismatch of global inventories were expected to limit the adjustment space of copper prices, and copper prices might continue to rebound in the short term. [6][7] - For aluminum, the LME aluminum price fluctuated narrowly during the Spring Festival. The macro - environment was neutral to positive. In the short term, the weak supply - demand seasonality might suppress the aluminum price, but the medium - to - long - term outlook was positive due to factors such as expected Fed easing, potential production cuts in Mozambique, and consumption growth. [8][9] - For zinc, the macro - environment was uncertain, and the re - emergence of AI concerns put pressure on the market. The unclear situation in the Middle East might affect raw material supply, but the Spring Festival inventory accumulation was a pressure. It was expected that the Shanghai zinc would be under pressure. [10][11] - For lead, the increase in LME inventory, the rebound of the US dollar, and the lack of demand during the Spring Festival put pressure on the lead price. It was expected that the Shanghai lead would be under pressure and volatile after opening. [12] - For tin, the US tariff policy and the uncertainty of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation added macro - variables. The Spring Festival inventory accumulation and slow recovery of downstream demand were pressures, but the slow recovery of tin ore supply in Myanmar and Indonesia's resource protection policy supported the price. It was expected that the Shanghai tin would fluctuate after the holiday. [13][14] - For steel products, during the holiday, the steel mills maintained production, and the inventory accumulated. The daily inventory accumulation rate of rebar during the Spring Festival was the lowest in the past five years. It was expected that the inventory inflection point would appear in about 4 weeks, and the steel prices would oscillate at a low level in the short term. [15] - For iron ore, during the holiday, the overseas iron ore supply increased, while the demand was weak. It was expected that the iron ore price would oscillate weakly in the short term. [16] - For coking coal and coke, during the Spring Festival, the coking coal market was in a "rest period" with weak supply and demand, and the prices were expected to oscillate in the short term. [17] - For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, during the Spring Festival, the CBOT US soybeans oscillated. The new - season US soybean planting area was expected to increase, and the soybean crushing demand was good. It was expected that the Dalian soybean meal would oscillate in the short term. [18][20] - For palm oil, during the Spring Festival, the BMD Malaysian palm oil and CBOT US soybean oil prices rose. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in mid - and early February, and the export demand decline narrowed slightly. It was expected that the palm oil would stop falling and oscillate in the short term. [21][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The trading data of various metal futures contracts are provided, including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, SHFE copper closed at 100380 yuan/ton with no change, LME copper closed at 12901 dollars/ton with a 0.76% decline. [23] 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - Copper: The SHFE copper main contract price decreased from 101560 yuan/ton on February 10 to 100380 yuan/ton on February 13. The LME copper price decreased from 13000 dollars/ton to 12901 dollars/ton. The LME copper inventory increased by 6675 tons. [24] - Nickel: The LME nickel 3 - month contract price decreased from 17435 dollars/ton on February 10 to 17285 dollars/ton on February 13. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 431. [24] - Zinc: The LME zinc price decreased from 3378 dollars/ton on February 10 to 3345.5 dollars/ton on February 13. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 25 tons. [27] - Lead: The LME lead price decreased from 1966.5 dollars/ton on February 10 to 1952 dollars/ton on February 13. The LME lead inventory decreased by 800 tons. [27] - Aluminum: The LME aluminum 3 - month contract price decreased from 3105.5 dollars/ton on February 10 to 3091 dollars/ton on February 13. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2000 tons. [27] - Alumina: The SHFE alumina main contract price increased from 2808 yuan/ton on February 10 to 2841 yuan/ton on February 13. [27] - Tin: The LME tin price increased from 46740 dollars/ton on February 10 to 47370 dollars/ton on February 13. The LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons. [27] - Precious metals: The COMEX gold price increased by 2.30% to 5247.90 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver price increased by 4.06% to 88.00 dollars/ounce. [23] - Steel products: The SHFE rebar and hot - rolled coil prices remained unchanged. The DCE iron ore price remained unchanged at 746.0 yuan/ton. [23] - Coking coal and coke: The DCE coking coal and coke prices remained unchanged at 1121.0 yuan/ton and 1682.0 yuan/ton respectively. [23] - Agricultural products: The CBOT soybean price decreased by 0.30% to 1150.3 dollars/ton. The DCE soybean meal and CZCE rapeseed meal data were not available. [23]

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold continues to experience high-level fluctuations, closing at $5183.7 per ounce with a slight increase of 0.14% [1] - Domestic SHFE gold also saw a minor rise, closing at 1153.90 yuan per gram, up by 0.65% [1] Geopolitical Factors - The third round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran is approaching, with President Trump seeking a commitment of "never nuclear" [1] - Vice President Pence expressed optimism regarding the negotiations but did not rule out military action [1] - The geopolitical situation is becoming a focal point for gold, as market expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts are decreasing [1] Market Outlook - Gold is expected to continue high-level wide fluctuations around $5000 per ounce, with attention on the developments of the U.S.-Iran negotiations this week [1]

Group 1 - The essence of the threat from the U.S. is rooted in a hegemonic mindset that views Canada as part of its "sphere of influence" [1] - Canada has a long-standing economic dependency on the U.S., with a high percentage of exports to the U.S. and core industries like energy and steel heavily reliant on the U.S. market [1] - The U.S. uses tariffs as a tool to interfere in normal trade relations between China and Canada, prioritizing its strategic interests over the sovereignty of other nations [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is deeply concerned about the geopolitical implications of China-Canada cooperation, particularly in the context of global supply chain restructuring and the acceleration of multipolarity [3] - The economic cooperation between China and Canada is based on complementary advantages in sectors such as energy, agricultural products, and high technology, representing a mutually beneficial market behavior [3] - The U.S. attempts to politicize and ideologize normal trade relations, using tariffs to create division and force Canada to choose sides between the U.S. and China [3] Group 3 - The unilateral actions of the U.S. not only harm the interests of China and Canada but also backfire on itself, undermining the multilateral trade system [3] - Imposing a 100% tariff on Canada could lead to skyrocketing prices for U.S. consumers and increased costs for manufacturing companies reliant on Canadian raw materials, impacting employment and economic recovery [3] - The U.S. actions reveal a disregard for the rules of the World Trade Organization and have led to widespread dissatisfaction in the international community, further straining trust among allies and prompting countries, including Canada, to diversify their trade relationships [3]

贵金属日报 2026年02月25日 操作评级 刘冬博 高级分析师 贵金属 女女女 F3062795 Z0015311 吴江 高级分析师 F3085524 Z0016394 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 白星代表短期多/空趋势处在一种相对均衡状态中,且当前盘面可操作性较差,以观望为主 隔夜贵金属有所回落。白宫关于伊朗问题表态称特朗普的首要选择始终是通过外交途径解决问题,但在必要 时也会准备动用致命乱力。特朗普新征收的10%的全球关税开始生效,自宫正在制定行政令以提高税率。短 期地缘谈判和关税政策均处于关键节点，贵金属等待进一步驱动。白银主要体现为高波动率延续导致的双向 扫动,无明确有力的驱动方向,等待伊朗事件出清。 ์ְലാ:节中宏观局势带动金银拉升，铂、肥投资溢价空间再打开。全球纪主要供应商诺尔里斯克2026年把产 量预期同比下调 ...

格隆汇2月25日｜欧洲央行管委Boris Vujcic表示，尽管官员们已重新掌控物价，但仍必须对危险保持警 惕。势将出任欧洲央行副行长的Vujcic告诉欧盟议员："尽管通胀回到我们的中期目标，但整体经济和 地缘政治环境不容自满。因此，我将继续支持监测不断演变的风险以及数据驱动的决策，在应对短期挑 战的同时兼顾长期目标。" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, under the dominance of macro uncertainties, the commodity market may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. The Fed officials' hawkish signals, the US government's tariff policies, and the tense situation between the US and Iran are the main factors affecting the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Before the holiday, the overall commodity market declined slightly by 0.23%. Precious metals led the gain at 3.29%, followed by non - ferrous metals and agricultural products with increases of 1.58% and 0.23% respectively. Black metals and energy - chemical products decreased by 1.1% and 1.11% respectively [2][6]. - Among specific varieties, the top - gainers were soybean No.1, silver, and apple, with increases of 6.76%, 5.23%, and 3.15% respectively. The top - losers were palm oil, asphalt, and styrene, with decreases of 3.63%, 3.56%, and 3.49% respectively [2][6]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased slightly, and the fluctuations of each sector converged. The overall market scale increased significantly, and funds in each sector showed net inflows [2][6]. 3.2 Market Outlook - During the holiday, Fed officials' signals were hawkish, and the US Supreme Court's ruling on the tariff policy and Trump's new 10% global tariff affected the US dollar. The tense US - Iran situation supported the oil price. In the short - term, the commodity market may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. 3.3 Sector - specific Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Overseas precious metals prices soared after sharp fluctuations during the holiday. With the US GDP falling short of expectations, strong core PCE, and the weakening US dollar due to the tariff policy ruling, and the lack of substantial progress in US - Iran negotiations, the strength of precious metals may continue [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Affected by the Spring Festival, terminal demand and investment weakened. The market believes that the Fed has internal differences, and the US dollar's upward trend has ended. Most varieties' inventories increased, but some supply - side supports remained. In the short - term, non - ferrous metals may be more likely to rise than fall [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar dropped to a low, and production remained at a low level. The inventory accumulation was lower than the same period in previous years. After the holiday, iron - water production is expected to continue the recovery trend, and there is also some restocking demand. Overseas iron - ore swaps weakened during the holiday, and concerns about iron - ore oversupply persisted. Coke inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy**: International oil prices continued to rise during the holiday. The US - Iran situation affecting the Strait of Hormuz and the unexpected drawdown of US crude and gasoline inventories in EIA data on February 20th pushed up oil prices. The next round of US - Iran negotiations is scheduled for February 26th in Geneva, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market's fluctuations in the next two weeks [4]. - **Chemical Industry**: The strong oil price provides cost support, and the warming macro - sentiment is beneficial. After the holiday, domestic downstream industries will gradually resume work. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter due to planned maintenance and expected demand recovery. For polypropylene, considering controllable supply pressure, rigid demand from downstream factories, and significant cost influence, the price may trend upward [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: During the holiday, the supply - demand structure of the new US soybean crop tightened year - on - year, and the optimistic expectation of the US biodiesel policy supported the strength of overseas oilseeds. The good short - term export and crushing data of US soybeans boosted prices, but the tariff policy may bring uncertainties to US soybean exports [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with an average return rate of about 1.37% - 1.75%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,182.54 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.20%. The trading volume decreased by 57.09% [36]. - The energy - chemical ETF (represented by the Jianxin Energy - Chemical Futures ETF) had a return rate of 0.14%, with a scale of 21.13 billion yuan and a growth rate of 1.79%. The trading volume decreased by 33.79% [36]. - The soybean meal ETF (represented by the Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return rate of 2.26%, with a scale of 27.19 billion yuan and a growth rate of 0.43%. The trading volume increased by 3.91% [36]. - The non - ferrous metal ETF (represented by the Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metal Futures ETF) had a return rate of 1.34%, with a scale of 76.79 billion yuan and a decline rate of 2.09%. The trading volume decreased by 36.37% [36]. - The silver fund (represented by the Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return rate of 6.32%, with a scale of 104.47 billion yuan and no change in scale. The trading volume increased by 565.95% [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The speech is a political gamble by Trump to address his执政困境 during his second term, aiming to reshape the political narrative, mobilize for the mid - term elections, and announce his governing路线. However, it fails to bridge the partisan divide, eliminate policy risks, or offer solutions to deep - seated social and economic contradictions. Trump's second - term governance will face multiple challenges [3][22] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.四面楚歌：一场危机倒逼下的政治突围 - Trump's political support rate has fallen to the lowest in his second term, with a continuous loss of voter trust. His support rate is below 40%, and over 50% of the public believes he pays insufficient attention to core US issues. The support rate within the Republican Party has also declined, and the support rate among swing voters has dropped sharply [4][6] - Trump's core trade policy has suffered a judicial setback. The US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose large - scale tariffs, causing his core trade policy to face a legitimacy crisis [6] - There is a government shutdown and a political deadlock. The US Department of Homeland Security has partially shut down due to a lack of consensus on temporary funding, and many Democratic lawmakers boycotted the speech. The core of the bipartisan dispute lies in the boundaries and scope of federal law enforcement [7] - The upcoming 2026 mid - term elections force Trump to start political mobilization in advance. The Republican Party has a narrow majority in Congress, and losing control of either house would lead to a "lame - duck" situation for Trump's second term [8] 2.演讲内核：危机应对的叙事重构与"美国优先"的路线重申 (1)内政主线 - **Economic narrative**: Trump declared that the US has entered a "golden age" under his leadership, listing achievements such as reducing core inflation to the lowest in over five years, the stock market reaching new highs, and implementing tax cuts. He also addressed people's concerns about the cost of living, such as reducing medical costs and alleviating the public's burden of industrial development costs [9][10] - **Fiscal policy**: In response to the Supreme Court's ruling, Trump provided a legal framework to replace the tariff system. He proposed to maintain tariffs based on other laws, such as the 122nd article of the 1974 Trade Act, and expected the tariff revenue in 2026 to remain stable. However, he did not address the issue of tariff refunds. The speech did not introduce large - scale incremental fiscal stimulus [10][11] - **Monetary policy**: Trump did not mention the Federal Reserve, interest rate policies, or the change of the Fed chair in his speech, which is in contrast to his previous style and leaves great uncertainty for future monetary policy [11][12] - **Conservative core agenda**: Trump strengthened his tough stance on immigration and elections, such as promoting legislation to ban states from issuing driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants and requiring voter ID. He also called for legislation to ban insider trading by members of Congress to win over swing voters [13] (2)外交主线 - **Foreign trade policy**: Trump provided a legal framework for tariff reconstruction, shifting from the IEEPA - based system to a traditional trade law framework. However, the policy still has high uncertainty as the 122 - clause tariff is a temporary measure, and the scope and intensity of the 301 and 232 - clause investigations are not clear [15][16] - **Geopolitics**: The speech focused on the Iranian nuclear issue, with Trump issuing strong warnings and leaving room for military action, which will increase geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The speech briefly mentioned the Russia - Ukraine conflict without providing specific policies for reconciliation [16][17] 3.余波与定调：这场演讲的政治效果与深层影响 - **Domestic politics**: The speech further amplifies the bipartisan polarization and fails to resolve Trump's core governance difficulties. His policy narrative is inconsistent with reality, and his subsequent policy agenda will face multiple obstacles [20] - **Financial markets and global trade**: The speech will cause short - term emotional fluctuations in the market and increase long - term risks. Trump's optimistic remarks on the stock market will support certain stocks in the short term, but his tariff policy will raise concerns about inflation and global supply chains. In the long run, it will impact the global multilateral trading system [21] - **Geopolitics**: The speech will intensify tensions in the Middle East and accelerate the fragmentation of the global pattern. Trump's tough stance on the Iranian nuclear issue will increase the risk of military conflicts in the Gulf region, and his unilateral foreign policy will weaken the trust between the US and its traditional allies [21]

津巴布韦锂矿禁令落地 发布时间： 2026年2月25日 JUNAN FUTURES 风险提示：如市场快速回落，卖出看跌期权有追加保证 金风险，注意做好仓位管控和对冲止损等风控预案。 场外期权 碳酸锂 根据路透、新浪财经消息，津巴布韦矿业与矿业发 展部发布关于禁止出口未加工矿产和锂精矿的新闻声明, 政府已决定即刻暂停所有未加工矿产和锂精矿的出口， 直至另行通知。 此项暂停措施包括目前所有在途矿产。 根据中国海关数据，2025年我国进口锂精矿620.9万吨， 其中从津巴布韦进口119.1万吨，占比19.1%。2026年 根据我们的测算，津巴布韦将提供17.7万吨LCE，占全 球资源的8.1%。预计受地缘政治和资源本土化影响，叠 加基本面紧张，锂将维持强势上涨。 场内斯权 隐含波动率溢价较高，看涨期权性价比相对较高， 在强势上涨预期时可考虑买入浅虚值看涨期权，并少量 卖出虚值看跌期权降低建仓成本，构建看涨领口策略参 与做多。 对于有碳酸锂买入套保需求的产业企业，建议考虑 适当布局熔断增强累购期权，尽量优化买入套保点位， 如市场快速上行也可及时转为线性多单。 风险提示：如市场快速回落，本结构有高位建立多单以 及加速追 ...