Core Points - The EU has officially approved a landmark regulation to end all imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas by 2026 [1][3] - This decision is one of the most significant energy decisions made by the EU since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, aiming to eliminate dependence on Russian energy [1][3] Regulation Details - The regulation mandates the cessation of Russian LNG imports by the end of 2026, with pipeline gas deliveries to be completely halted by September 30, 2027 [3] - There is an option for member states to delay the pipeline cutoff until November 1, 2027, if they face difficulties securing sufficient non-Russian gas supplies before winter [3] - Hungary and Slovakia opposed the measure but could not prevent its implementation due to the requirement of a simple majority for approval [3] Energy Supply Diversification - Prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, over 40% of the EU's gas supply came from Russia, which is expected to drop to about 13% by 2025 as member states diversify their energy suppliers and enhance storage capacity [3] - The new regulation represents the final phase of this transition towards energy independence from Russia [3] REPowerEU Strategy - The EU Council describes the regulation as a key milestone in the "REPowerEU" strategy, aimed at eliminating reliance on Russian fossil fuels [5] - The regulation includes stronger oversight mechanisms requiring member states to verify the production sources of all imported gas to prevent circumvention of the ban [5] Compliance and Penalties - Member states must submit national diversification plans by March 1, 2026, addressing supply security issues and any remaining Russian gas orders held by private companies [6] - Non-compliance may result in fines of at least €2.5 million for individuals and €40 million or up to 3.5% of global annual turnover for companies [6] Financial Implications for Russia - As of August 2025, EU countries were still paying €1.15 billion monthly for fossil fuel purchases from Russia, with Hungary, Slovakia, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium accounting for 85% of these expenditures [6] - The loss of the EU market, historically Russia's most lucrative gas market, will significantly impact Russia's fiscal stability and limit its social spending, military funding sustainability, and investment capacity [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [6][6][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over the independence of U.S. Federal Reserve policies are expected to boost gold prices in the short term [6][6]. - The copper market is facing supply constraints due to incidents at major mines, which is likely to support copper prices despite high prices potentially suppressing actual consumption [36][36]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price support due to downstream inventory demand, while the lithium market is anticipated to maintain a strong price trend due to export tax incentives and tight supply expectations [6][6][6]. Summary by Sections Steel - The steel industry is expected to improve profitability as growth policies are implemented, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase [3][3]. - Current steel prices are showing seasonal trends, with expectations of price fluctuations following raw material prices [19][19]. - As of January 23, 2026, the total steel inventory has increased by 0.79% compared to the previous week, indicating a potential accumulation ahead of the Spring Festival [26][26]. Copper - The copper market is experiencing a tightening supply due to strikes affecting production at key mines, which may provide price support [36][36]. - The copper smelting processing fees remain negative, indicating pressure on the supply side, while demand is expected to rise in sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [36][36]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is characterized by stable supply and high operating rates at alumina plants, with expectations of price support from downstream inventory needs [46][46]. - As of January 23, 2026, the average price of alumina is reported at 2,657.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [50][50]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and economic data are influencing gold prices, with a notable increase in prices observed recently [54][54]. - As of January 23, 2026, gold prices have risen by 8.30% on COMEX and 8.07% on SHFE compared to the previous week [54][54]. Lithium and Cobalt - The lithium market is expected to maintain a strong price trend due to export tax incentives and tight supply conditions, with battery-grade lithium prices increasing by 12.46% recently [58][58]. - Cobalt supply is constrained due to limited export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand is driven by the electric vehicle and consumer electronics sectors [6][6].

然而，纸上谈兵和实际操作之间，往往存在巨大的差距。这一切看似顺利的计划在实际执行中遭遇了重重困难。特朗普成功地在政治层面对马杜罗政府施加 了压力，但随着事态的发展，问题迅速暴露出来。石油掌握在手后，如何处置这笔巨额资源，成为了他面临的最大难题。美国国内的大型石油公司对这一局 势保持极为谨慎的态度。企业们深知，委内瑞拉局势复杂多变，潜藏着法律与安全的双重风险。更重要的是，制裁政策的边界模糊不清，稍有不慎，后果不 堪设想。在这种情况下，资本自然不会轻易冒险。因此，特朗普很快意识到，美国自身并不具备处理这块石油的能力。于是，他转向中国，公开表示允许中 国继续购买委内瑞拉的石油，但价格必须提高。这一策略的背后，意图显而易见：美国试图将战略成本转嫁给中国，同时从中获利。然而，这一招却未能击 中中国的实际需求。如今的中国，能源选择多样，委内瑞拉并不是唯一的可选之地。更为重要的是，委内瑞拉的石油并不具备价格优势。中国没有理由为了 配合美国的战略而去承担额外的成本。而中俄之间日益紧密的能源合作，也使得这一策略更加难以奏效。近年来，俄罗斯对中国的石油供应持续增长，公开 数据显示，中俄之间的石油贸易量和价格条件都显得更加具备吸引 ...

Core Viewpoint - Innovation and geopolitical factors are reshaping capital markets, with Hong Kong positioned as a globally connected hub [1] Group 1: Market Confidence and Policy Measures - Timely policy measures have enhanced market confidence in a changing environment [1] - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority have expanded the RMB business funding arrangement to 200 billion RMB, laying the foundation for the next phase of connectivity development [1] - Confidence is reflected in economic, capital markets, and business activities, translating into tangible results [1] Group 2: Competition and Product Offerings - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) faces competition not only from traditional exchanges but also from emerging virtual platforms, necessitating deep and broad professional capabilities [1] - Investors are increasing their exposure to the Chinese market, prompting Hong Kong to offer product options beyond stocks [1] Group 3: Future Development of HKEX - The future development of HKEX relies on stablecoins, tokenization, and 24-hour trading [1] - HKEX will continue to invest in technology and is promoting infrastructure reforms, including shortening the new stock settlement cycle [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in international gold prices is the result of geopolitical turmoil, the shaking of the global political and economic order, and a continuously loose liquidity environment. In 2026, the Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates, and the loose liquidity environment provides strong support for the rise of precious metals. Global investors' strategic allocation demand for precious metals has increased, and the scale of gold and silver ETFs has continued to expand, driving up precious metal prices. Short - term silver has risen significantly, and there may be some pressure for funds to take profits, while gold is more stable [4]. - Morgan Stanley expects that driven by geopolitical uncertainty, continuous central bank gold purchases, and strong ETF demand, the gold price is expected to rise to $5,700 per ounce in the second half of the year. If the Fed starts to cut interest rates in 2026, it may further support strong physical gold demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 on the previous day were 1146.58 and 1143.32 respectively, with increases of 28.20 (2.52%) and 27.68 (2.48%) compared to the day before. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 on the previous day were 27,189 and 27,207 respectively, with increases of 2259 (9.06%) and 2242 (8.98%) compared to the day before [3]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 85,261 and 215,820 respectively, and the trading volumes were 76,211 and 395,962 respectively. The positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 169,868 and 322,579 respectively, and the trading volumes were 605,689 and 965,900 respectively [3]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were - 2.32 and 0.94 respectively, and those of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 324 and 306 respectively [3]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D on the previous day was 1144.26, up 33.91 (3.05%) from the day before. The closing price of London Gold was $5042.75 per troy ounce, up $21.76 (0.44%) from the day before. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D on the previous day was 27,513, up 2525 (10.10%) from the day before. The closing price of London Silver was $106.61 per troy ounce, up $0.53 (0.52%) from the day before [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The current spreads of Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 and Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 were 3.26 and - 18.00 respectively. The current gold - to - silver ratio in the spot market was 41.59, and the ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver were 1.01 and 1.15 respectively [3]. Inventory - **Futures Exchanges**: The current inventories of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 103,029 kg and 573,810 kg respectively, with changes of + 1020 kg and - 7280 kg compared to the day before. The current inventories of gold and silver on the COMEX were 35,941,502 troy ounces and 415,241,837 troy ounces respectively, with changes of - 202,778 troy ounces and - 1,183,026 troy ounces compared to the day before [3]. Related Derivatives and Indicators - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US Dollar Index, S&P 500 Index, 10 - year US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate were 97.04, 6,950.23, 4.22%, $64.89, and 6.9572 respectively, with changes of - 0.46, + 34.62, - 0.02%, - 0.55, and - 0.0070 compared to the day before [3]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 1,087 tons and 15,974 tons respectively, with changes of 0 tons and - 116 tons compared to the day before. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in gold and silver were 244,770 and 25,214 respectively, with changes of - 6468 and - 6846 compared to the day before [3]. Macroeconomic News - **Geopolitical**: The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group has entered the US Central Command's area of responsibility in the western Indian Ocean. If the White House orders an attack on Iran, the strike group could launch military operations within "one or two days." Trump said the situation in Iran is "changing rapidly" and that Iran wants to reach an agreement [4]. - **Trade**: Trump announced that the reciprocal tariffs on South Korean automobiles, timber, pharmaceuticals, and all other goods will be raised from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's failure to approve the trade agreement [4]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4% [4]. - **Commodity Market Analysis**: An analyst pointed out that this is one of the most glorious days in the silver market. The price of silver has risen rapidly due to its small market size and low liquidity. Retail investors are flocking in, and there is a (relatively small - scale) gap in the spot market. This is good news for silver miners, but selling some future production in the futures market may bring some selling pressure [4]. - **Economic Data**: The monthly rate of US durable goods orders in November was 5.3%, the largest increase since May 2025 [4].

郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,726.7 | 0.76% | 565 | 4,225 | -176 | 0.13 | 0.12 | | | EC2604 | 1,200.2 | 5.46% | 43,172 | 41,690 | 541 | 1.04 | 0.75 | | | EC2606 | 1,447.6 | 3.47% | 4,483 | 7,324 | 1,533 | 0.61 | 0.77 | | | | 本期 | | 2026/1/26 | | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | SCFIS：欧洲航线 | | 1,859.31 | | | 点 ...

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold prices continue to rise, closing at $5004.8 per ounce with a 0.50% increase, while domestic SHFE gold prices also show a strong performance, closing at 1148.14 yuan per gram with a 1.49% increase [2][4]. Economic Data - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 5.3% increase in durable goods orders, the largest growth in six months, following a revised decline of 2.1% in the previous month, driven by orders for commercial aircraft and other capital equipment [2][4]. Market Sentiment - Polymarket data indicates a 78% probability of a new government shutdown in the U.S. by the end of January, a significant increase from less than 10% the previous week [2][4]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East for several days of military exercises, raising concerns about geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran [5]. - Despite low expectations for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in January, geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. dollar credibility are expected to support gold prices in the short term [5]. Future Outlook - The market is advised to remain bullish on gold in the short term, with attention on the upcoming decision regarding the next Federal Reserve chairperson [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-27 哈萨克斯坦原油供应即将回归，地缘和 预期促使能化延续震荡 原油市场延续震荡整理格局，多重因素作用于油价之上。原油实际供 需而言，彭博报道哈萨克斯坦的原油出口终端已经完成修复，田吉兹巨型 油田的生产也即将重启，这将有助于缓解欧洲市场的偏紧格局。1月20日 当周，强冬季风暴登陆美国大西洋沿岸，带来强降雪和冻雨天气，2月3日 左右美国气温又将明显回升。美国总统特朗普向中东地区派遣海军兵力 后，当地地缘紧张局势持续升级，伊朗日产原油超过300万桶，是具有地 缘意义的产油国，局势的不确定性对油价形成支撑。（以上新闻和数据均 来自彭博终端） 板块逻辑： 化工延续震荡整理态势，供需面的因素退居其次，预期的力量依旧较 强。液体化工库存周度全线增加，纯苯华东港口库存环比增2.69%，苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比增7.59%，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增7.8%，化工实 体需求即将逐步进入消费淡季，产业将逐步累库。化工整体处于震荡格 局，芳烃生产已经出现利润，但当前也看不到供给大幅增加打压价格的情 况；聚烯烃期价反弹，油制烯烃生产盈亏格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, with the expected production increase in Venezuela and the normalization of low - intensity frictions between the US and Iran, there is a bottom support for oil prices. It is cost - effective to go long when the price is around the shale oil break - even point in the medium - to - long term [3] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and its future pattern will improve marginally. Although there is short - term downward pressure, it is feasible to go long at low prices due to geopolitical expectations in Iran [5] - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short [7] - For rubber, with the overall rise in commodities, but the seasonal weakness of rubber, it is recommended to trade with a neutral mindset, short - term trading on the disk. Short - sell if RU2605 falls below 16000, and partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10][13] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. In the short term, it is supported by electricity price expectations, export rush, and strong commodity sentiment. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [15][17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [19][20] - For polyethylene, the futures price has risen. The price of crude oil may have bottomed out, and the downward valuation space of PE remains. It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand is weakening [22][23] - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply - surplus situation may ease, and it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [24][26] - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil [27][28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium term [29][32] - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing high - inventory and high - production pressure. The valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term, and significant production cuts are needed to improve the supply - demand pattern [33][34] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 17.90 yuan/barrel, a 4.07% increase, closing at 457.30 yuan/barrel; related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil rose 178.00 yuan/ton, a 6.81% increase, closing at 2791.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 108.00 yuan/ton, a 3.49% increase, closing at 3206.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 11.48 million barrels, a 2.00% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 15.41 million barrels, a 2.84% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.11 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels to 5.92 million barrels, a 4.36% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.21 million barrels to 7.83 million barrels, a 2.79% increase; the overall refined oil inventory increased by 0.51 million barrels to 47.76 million barrels, a 1.08% increase [2][3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Venezuela's oil production is expected to increase gradually. The situation between the US and Iran will enter a state of low - intensity friction normalization. There is a bottom support for oil prices, and it is cost - effective to go long around the shale oil break - even point in the medium - to - long term [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot price in Jiangsu changed by 25 yuan/ton, in Lunan by - 17.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 77.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2347 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 148 yuan [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and the future pattern will improve marginally. It is feasible to go long at low prices due to geopolitical expectations in Iran [5] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 3 yuan/ton, closing at 1791 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 51 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities and chemicals rose overall, and rubber prices rebounded. The sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be due to macro funds' large - scale allocation of chemical longs, the expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to the naphtha consumption tax policy, and the increase in butadiene exports due to spot demand in South Korea. The port inventory decreased significantly. The long and short sides have different views on natural rubber. The long side believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, and there is an expected improvement in demand in China; the short side believes that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, and supply is increasing while demand is in the seasonal off - season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than last week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than last week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 125.6 tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period [10][11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the overall rise in commodities but the seasonal weakness of rubber, it is recommended to trade with a neutral mindset, short - term trading on the disk. Short - sell if RU2605 falls below 16000, and partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, closing at 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (+100) yuan/ton, the basis was - 209 (+62) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (- 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2475 (- 25) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 785 (- 35) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (- 5) dollars/ton, and the price of caustic soda was 605 (- 17) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period; the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 tons (+3.3) [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. In the short term, it is supported by electricity price expectations, export rush, and strong commodity sentiment. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6010 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 6078 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan increase; the basis of pure benzene was - 68 yuan/ton, a 23 - yuan increase. The spot price of styrene was 7850 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 7702 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan decrease; the basis was 148 yuan/ton, a 156 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 194.75 yuan/ton, a 9.75 - yuan increase; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was 119.6 yuan/ton, a 20.55 - yuan decrease; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 tons to 9.35 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the operating rate of PS was 57.30%, a 0.10% decrease, the operating rate of EPS was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the operating rate of ABS was 66.80%, a 3.00% decrease [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6935 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan increase; the basis was - 85 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 27 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The downward valuation space of PE remains. It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand is weakening [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6737 yuan/ton, an 81 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6600 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 137 yuan/ton, a 56 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 198 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan decrease; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 41 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan decrease [24][25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, closing at 7508 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 7 dollars, closing at 930 dollars. The basis was - 35 yuan (+34), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 108 yuan (+10). The operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase. Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the South Korean GS plant restarted overseas. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase. In the first and middle of January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons. The inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6 tons. The PXN was 358 dollars (+18), the South Korean PX - MX was 151 dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 86 dollars (- 14) [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, closing at 5448 yuan. The East China spot price rose 65 yuan, closing at 5350 yuan. The basis was - 79 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 30 yuan (- 10). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 tons, a 4 - ton increase from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 34 yuan to 439 yuan, and the disk processing fee fell 19 yuan to 504 yuan [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium term [30][32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 150 yuan, closing at 3997 yuan. The East China spot price rose 89 yuan, closing at 3887 yuan. The basis was - 120 yuan (- 2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 97 yuan (- 14). The supply - side operating rate was 73%, a 1.4% decrease; among them, the synthetic gas - based operating rate was 79.4%, a 0.8% decrease; the ethylene - based operating rate was 69.5%, a 1.7% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. The import arrival forecast was 20.5 tons, and the East China departure volume from January 23 - 25 was 2 tons. The port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 869 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 606 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 352 yuan. The price of ethylene fell to 705 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines fell to 530 yuan [33] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is facing high - inventory and high - production pressure. The valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term, and significant production cuts are needed to improve the supply - demand pattern [34]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 1月26日，铂族金属跟随金属板块同步大涨。截至当日收盘，铂期货主力2606合约上涨9.68%，报744.70 元/克；钯期货主力2606合约大幅上涨7.17%，报534.80元/克。 | 铂2606 | 744.70 +9.68% | 65.75 | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 pt2606 | | | | 锂2606 | 534.80 +7.17% | 35.80 | | 期货 pd2606 | | | 值得注意的是，1月26日，针对部分品种价格近期波动较大的情况，广期所发布风险提示称，期货公司 应切实履行风险管理职责，强化客户交易行为合规监管和风险防范，提醒投资者依规、谨慎、理性参与 交易，确保市场平稳运行。 同时，广期所将坚持严监严管主基调，持续强化市场监管，严肃查处各类违规行为，加强实际控制关系 账户调查、认定，发挥五位一体监管协作合力，依法严厉打击市场操纵行为，维护市场秩序。 国投期货分析师孙芳芳认为，铂、钯期货价格上行的主要原因是海外避险情绪升温。"虽然美国不再对 关键资源国加征关税，缓解了铂、 ...