Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - SCFIS is continuously declining, indicating that the actual price increase implementation is not ideal, leading to a decline in bullish sentiment and a weak overall market oscillation. The core now lies in the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the process of bottom - building. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][6]. - The issue of tariffs has shown a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - **SCFIS**: On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period [3]. - **SCFI**: On November 14, the announced price of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [4]. - **NCFI**: On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period [5]. - **CCFI**: On November 14, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [5]. 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone: In October, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5 (previous - 9.2) [5]. - China: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [5]. - US: In October, the preliminary S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the preliminary composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [6]. 3.3 Market Conditions of Contracts - On November 18, the main contract 2602 closed at 1678.1, down 2.88%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 38,900 lots, a decrease of 20 lots from the previous day [6]. 3.4 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [7]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see or lightly attempt [7]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [7]. 3.5 Other Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [7]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [7]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7].

Group 1 - A research report from the San Francisco Federal Reserve suggests that a 4% increase in tariffs could lead to a 2% decrease in inflation, which contradicts conventional economic wisdom [1] - The report indicates that while inflation may decrease, unemployment could rise by approximately 1% as a consequence [3] - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of only 2.4% in May 2025, which was lower than market expectations, but subsequent data indicated a rise to 2.7% in June, marking the largest increase since February [3] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs extends beyond consumer prices, as Japan's economy shrank for the first time in six quarters, with a 1.8% annualized decline in GDP [7] - The Trump administration's proposal to distribute $2,000 to families earning under $100,000 faces challenges, including a projected cost of $600 billion, which exceeds anticipated tariff revenues [9][15] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a response to conflicting economic signals, with internal divisions among policymakers regarding the timing and extent of rate changes [11][12] Group 3 - Companies are experiencing increased cost pressures, with a survey indicating an average expected cost increase of 4.4%, of which 1.7 percentage points are attributed to tariffs [13] - Retail prices have shown upward pressure, with clothing prices rising by 0.4% and furniture prices increasing by 0.4% as well, indicating that tariff costs are being passed on to consumers [13] - The Federal Reserve's internal disagreements are evident, with some members advocating for more aggressive rate cuts while others express concerns about inflation targets [12][15] Group 4 - The inflation rate reached 2.9% in August, the highest level since January, while non-farm employment increased by only 22,000, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [14] - Financial markets reacted unpredictably to the Fed's rate cut announcement, with initial gains reversing as comments from the Fed Chair were interpreted [14] - The Trump administration's tariff policies are reshaping global trade dynamics, with selective agreements made with Latin American countries to lower costs, while certain products still face high tariffs [14][15]

印度拟从美国墨西哥湾沿岸每年进口约220万吨液化石油气，协议有效期至2026年。 在寻求美国关税减免之际，印度首次同意从美国大量采购液化石油气（LPG）。 据报道，当地时间17日上午，印度石油和天然气部部长普里（Hardeep Puri）宣布，印度国有石油公司与美国签署 了史上首个采购协议，拟从美国墨西哥湾沿岸每年进口约220万吨液化石油气，协议有效期至2026年。 普里表示，这是印度市场首个美国液化石油气结构化采购合同，采购量约占印度年进口量的10%。 同时，美国和印度之间仍在就贸易协定进行谈判，目前双方在美国产品进入印度农产品和乳制品市场等问题上仍 存在明显分歧。 "收益将是政治性的，而非经济性的" 印度对美出口连续第二个月大幅下滑 根据当地时间17日公布的数据，10月印度对美国出口额同比下降8.6%，至63亿美元。印度10月出口总额同比下降 0.7%，至729亿美元。印度对美出口连续第二个月大幅下滑。 "史上首次！"普里在社交媒体平台上发帖称"全球最大、增长最快的液化石油气市场之一向美国敞开了大门。" 根据印度政府数据，在截至2025年3月的财年中，印度进口了约2100万吨液化石油气，价值145亿美元， ...

日本内阁府17日公布，日本三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下降1.8%，自2024年第一季 度以来再次出现负增长。分析人士指出，受困于内需与外需的双重压力，以及对华关系持续紧张，日本 经济正滑向更为复杂的境地。 数据显示，日本今年三季度实际GDP（剔除物价变动因素）比上一季度下降0.4%。日媒分析指出，国 内需求疲软和出口低迷是导致GDP下滑的主要原因。 自5月以来，受美国关税影响，日本出口连续4个月萎缩。尽管日美双方于7月份达成协议，将"对等关 税"税率设定为15%，但历史高位的关税水平仍然抑制了制造业的发展，对其出口依赖型经济构成严重 冲击。受此影响，三季度货物及服务贸易出口大幅下降，环比下降1.2%，拖累GDP增速0.2个百分点。 进口因内需疲软环比下降0.1%。 与此同时，内需方面，占日本经济总量过半的私人消费增速也显著放缓，增速从第二季度的0.4%放缓 至0.1%，这再次表明，由于生活成本高企导致实际工资停滞不前，日本家庭仍在削减可自由支配的支 出。 截至发稿，日经225指数跌破49000点关口，日内跌超1300点。 来源：经济日报 日本内阁府此前发布中期经济预测报告称，考虑到美国关税政策 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottoming process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [4]. - After the early settlement of the 2602 contract and the upward movement of SCFI, the bullish sentiment was boosted, and the main contract rose significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On November 17, the 02 contract opened high and moved high, with the overall disk oscillating strongly. The main contract 2602 closed at 1726.0, with a gain of 6.73%, a trading volume of 24,450 lots, and an open interest of 38,900 lots, an increase of 837 lots from the previous day [2][4]. Freight Index - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [3]. - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (comprehensive index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (comprehensive index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - In the US in October, the S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, expected 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, expected 52, and the previous value was 52; the comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 54.8, expected 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [4]. - In the Eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, expected 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, expected 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 49.7, expected 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6. The Eurozone's October Sentix Investor Confidence Index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, not carry losses, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or lightly try [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Group 1 - Home Depot and Lowe's are expected to report slight sales growth in their upcoming quarterly earnings, providing insight into market conditions and consumer spending on home improvement and DIY projects [1] - The companies face higher raw material costs due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, but a temporary pause on tariffs for Chinese goods may offer short-term relief [1] - The actual tariff rate borne by American consumers has surged to 17.9%, the highest level since 1934, adding pressure to household budgets [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict Home Depot's same-store sales will grow by 1.5% in the third quarter, compared to a decline of 1.3% in the same period last year [3] - Lowe's is expected to see a 1% increase in same-store sales, up from a 1.1% decline in the previous year [4] - The stock prices of Lowe's and Home Depot have dropped approximately 16% and over 11% respectively in the past 12 months, while the S&P 500 index has risen by 15% [3] Group 3 - Demand for home improvement is anticipated to be led by professional customers, while DIY customers are expected to engage in smaller projects [6] - Home Depot and Lowe's are increasing their focus on professional contractors and builders to offset weak DIY demand during a sluggish real estate market [6] - Lowe's has made significant acquisitions, including a $1.33 billion purchase of Artisan Design and an almost $8.8 billion acquisition of Foundation Building Materials, while Home Depot announced a $4.3 billion acquisition of GMS [6]

Core Insights - The latest report from ICIS indicates a decline in U.S. chemical production in October, influenced by a sluggish manufacturing sector and increasing concerns over tariffs [1] - The ISM's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October shows a further deterioration in U.S. manufacturing output, dropping to 48.7, indicating deeper contraction [1] - Despite the decline in chemical production, prices for chemical products have risen [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - The PMI data reveals that the manufacturing sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with the index falling into a deeper contraction zone [1] - A participant in the PMI survey from the chemical industry expressed a shift in sentiment regarding tariff policies from "expectation" to "concern," noting a decrease in order volumes and a downward revision of financial expectations for 2025 [1] - Another chemical company reported ongoing difficulties in business, citing global economic uncertainty and frequent changes in tariff policies leading to order cancellations or reductions by clients [1] Group 2: Demand Indicators - Susan Spence, chair of the ISM PMI Business Survey Committee, noted that the short-term benefits from new orders growth in August and production improvement in September have not translated into sustained growth in manufacturing [1] - Four key demand indicators (new orders, new export orders, unfilled orders, and customer inventory index) have shown improvement but remain in contraction territory, with the customer inventory index's contraction rate slowing down [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by Trump to exempt tariffs on over 200 agricultural products, including coffee and beef, is a response to significant price increases that have pressured the White House, with coffee prices rising nearly 20% and beef prices up 14.7% year-over-year [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Changes - Trump's executive order exempts tariffs on various agricultural products, including coffee, tea, beef, and tropical fruits, effective retroactively [1]. - The exemption is politically motivated to alleviate pressure on consumer prices while maintaining leverage in negotiations with specific countries [3]. - The agricultural trade deficit is projected to reach $39.4 billion, with coffee imports alone accounting for one-third of this figure [3]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - The tariff policy has significantly affected American households, with grocery costs becoming a primary source of stress for half of the population [4]. - Even higher-income families are feeling the pinch, leading them to shop at discount stores and cut back on expenses [4][6]. - A report indicates that consumers currently bear only 22% of the tariff costs, which is expected to rise to 67% by October as costs transition from importers to consumers [6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, with some officials expressing concerns about inflation remaining too high [7]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped below 50%, contrasting sharply with nearly 95% a month prior [7]. - The ongoing government shutdown has created uncertainty in economic data, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [9]. Group 4: Labor Market and AI Influence - The labor market is showing signs of downward pressure, with rising layoff announcements and increased discussions about layoffs in various sectors due to AI adoption [9]. - The interplay between Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policies is becoming increasingly evident, with potential implications for short-term interest rate strategies [9].

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2025 年第 41 期） 史上最长美国政府"停摆"结束，美国政府重启有待缓慢加档，可 能需要一周以上时间才能基本恢复。关键数据缺失将导致美联储和 美国政府决策部门要在"迷雾"中航行一段时间。本周开始关键数 据将陆续补发，部分数据已有排期，而另一部分或永久缺失。未来 两周需关注 9 月非农、三季度 GDP 及 PCE 等数据。在 12 月 10 日 晚间美联储利率决议公布之前，最关键的数据有三项：即 11 月 26 日发布的核心 PCE 物价数据，12 月 5 日发布的 11 月非农就业数 据，以及 12 月 10 日上午发布的 11 月 CPI 数据。考虑到政府停摆 对就业市场和通胀的下行冲击，以及近期各项关税政策的缓和，上 述三项数据有望提供更多支持降息的证据，市场对于紧缩定价可能 有些过头了。其他关注点：明年 1 月 31 日再次停摆概率超 30%， 哈塞特仍领跑美联储主席人选，最高法大概率不支持对等关税。 2025 年 11 月 17 日 民银国际研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has raised the target price for Minhua Holdings (01999) by 15% from HKD 4.6 to HKD 5.3, maintaining a "Neutral" investment rating due to the resilience of profit margins and a 6% dividend yield offsetting uncertainties from tariff policies and domestic demand [1] Financial Performance - Minhua's net profit for the first half of the year was HKD 1.146 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, exceeding expectations by 7% [1] - Revenue decreased by 3% year-on-year to HKD 8.045 billion, primarily impacted by a 6% decline in the Chinese market (average selling price/sales volume: down 6%/flat) [1] - The US and European markets experienced moderate growth of 0.3% and 4%, respectively [1] Margin and Costs - Gross margin outperformed expectations, reaching 40.4%, mainly due to favorable raw material costs [1] - Gross margins in China and the US both improved by 1 percentage point compared to the same period last year [1] - Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased by 1.7 percentage points to 23.7%, reflecting a tariff-sharing agreement with Vietnamese customers [1] Dividend Announcement - The company announced a dividend of HKD 0.15 per share, unchanged from the previous year [1]