2025年04月27日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：累库交易乏力，关注新边际变化 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：国际豆油支撑油脂价格 | 2 | | 豆粕：偏弱震荡，规避五一假期风险 | 7 | | 豆一：回调震荡，规避假期风险 | 7 | | 玉米：偏强运行 | 13 | | 白糖：关注内外价差机会 | 19 | | 棉花：需求驱动弱关注新疆天气 | 26 | | 生猪：累库空间缩窄，等待节后印证 | 33 | | 花生：有所回调 | 39 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 4 月 27 日 棕榈油：累库交易乏力，关注新边际变化 豆油：国际豆油支撑油脂价格 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：上周油脂板块交投激烈，棕榈油强现实弱预期的交易博弈近两月后，市场认为累库故事交易 暂时充分，因此随着印度边际需求改善的新变量，棕榈油触底反弹，并随着美豆油情绪利好继续大涨， 棕榈油 09 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Red dates: Neutral [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple is in the traditional sales peak season, with improved terminal consumption of late Fuji apples. The inventory is at a five - year low, and the price is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend. New - season apples are in the flowering period, and weather factors may affect production. [3] - Red dates had a bumper harvest in 2024. The current spot and futures prices are at historical lows. The consumption off - season will last until September. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,935 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton or 0.62% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.30 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. In the traditional peak season, merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, and terminal sales are stable. The remaining inventory is at a five - year low, and the de - stocking pressure is small. The price is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend this week. New - season apples are in the flowering period, and some areas have a certain expected reduction in production due to frost damage. [3] Strategy - Oscillating with an upward bias [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2509 contract yesterday was 9,060 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton or 1.31% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. [4][5] Market Analysis - The red dates futures price fell yesterday. The supply in the sales area is sufficient, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable. The market is in the consumption off - season, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates. [6] Strategy - Neutral [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: In Malaysia, the long - term view remains cautiously bearish as the current downward trend is well - maintained. In China, palm oil is expected to show a phased oscillatory upward trend due to low port inventories and slow customs clearance of soybeans. For soybean oil, CBOT soybean oil has upward momentum due to positive fundamentals in the US, while in China, supply is tight, supporting the basis price [1]. Cotton Industry - Short - term domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate slightly. Downstream demand is weak but has rigid needs, and there is some pressure and support for cotton prices. Attention should be paid to weather conditions in Xinjiang and macro - economic trends [2]. Sugar Industry - The international raw sugar market will oscillate widely between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern as it lacks effective driving factors, although there is resistance to price drops [3]. Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is mostly sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed is average. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize, with a possible decline later [5]. Meal Industry - The upward trend of US soybeans lacks sustainable drivers. Brazil's soybean supply pressure is increasing, and China's soybean arrivals will be abundant. In the short term, due to slow customs clearance, meal demand for pre - May Day stocking has boosted the basis price. Caution is advised in disk operations [7]. Corn Industry - In the short term, corn prices will oscillate within a range. There is support from reduced supply and increased demand for pre - May Day stocking, but the upside is limited by factors such as high inventories and the need to clear warehouses before the wheat harvest. In the long term, prices are expected to rise [10]. Pig Industry - Pig prices lack the power for continuous upward movement in the short term. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,800 yuan. Attention should be paid to the performance of second - fattening pigs' market supply around May Day [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On April 22, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,270 yuan, up 1.60% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7,852 yuan, up 0.80%. The basis of Y2509 was 418 yuan, up 19.43%. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of P2509 was 8,568 yuan, up 0.33%. The basis of P2509 was 432 yuan, down 6.09%. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,360 yuan, up 0.86%; the futures price of 01509 was 9,340 yuan, up 0.95%. The basis of 01509 was 20 yuan, down 28.57% [1]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 23, the price of cotton 2505 was 12,565 yuan/ton, down 0.95%; the price of cotton 2509 was 12,795 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14,082 yuan, up 0.07%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,218 yuan, up 0.06% [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 23, the price of sugar 2505 was 6,154 yuan/ton, down 0.40%; the price of sugar 2509 was 5,978 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 6,210 yuan, unchanged; the price in Kunming was 6,050 yuan, down 0.08% [3]. Egg Industry - On April 23, the price of the egg 06 contract was 3,028 yuan/500KG, down 0.62%; the price of the egg 09 contract was 3,817 yuan/500KG, up 0.18% [5]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: On April 22, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3,520 yuan, up 2.03%; the futures price of M2509 was 3,054 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis of M2509 was 466 yuan, up 15.06%. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,540 yuan, up 0.79%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2,658 yuan, up 1.03%. The basis of RM2509 was - 118 yuan, down 6.31% [7]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On April 23, the price of corn 2507 was 2,324 yuan/ton, up 0.96%; the 7 - 9 spread was - 23 yuan, up 20.69%. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 was 2,684 yuan/ton, up 1.21%; the 7 - 9 spread was - 67 yuan, up 4.29% [10]. Pig Industry - On April 23, the price of the pig 2507 contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the price of the pig 2509 contract was 14,485 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The 7 - 9 spread was 815 yuan, down 6.86% [15].

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 22 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华 从业资格号：F03088692 交易咨询资格证号: Z0016646 豆油劲升、玉米大涨 一、农产品板块综述 油脂板块集体上扬,豆油领涨,因进口大豆到厂节奏偏慢,供需 错配导致油厂开机率偏低,加之五一备货需求提振,豆油需求较强, 库存下降,支撑豆油期价强劲走高,后市关注进口大豆入关和到厂情 况。玉米大幅上涨,基层余粮见底,进口玉米大豆下降,支撑玉米期 价大幅走高,后市或偏强运行。豆一亦大幅走高,因余粮见底,贸易 商挺价等支撑价格走高。自糖回落调整,受外盘下跌拖累,但国内白 糖销售较快,进口糖大幅下降,郑糖回落空间有限,后市仍有再升空 间。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆油:大幅上涨 焦点关注:豆油主力 2509 合约强劲上涨,受到产出下降、需求 旺盛的偏多影响: 1.进口大豆到港,但是海关检验检疫 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Oscillating with an upward bias [3] - Red dates: Neutral [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Apple: In April, the apple market enters the traditional sales peak season. With the increase in low - price apple transactions in Shandong and more shipments from cold storages, and the improvement in market sales in distribution areas, the market's bullish sentiment prevails. The remaining inventory is at a five - year low, and the de - stocking pressure is small. The new - season apples in the western region are in the flowering period, and the overall flower volume is sufficient. Although there was a large - scale strong wind disaster in North China, the impact on the market is still to be observed. In the short term, the spot and futures prices of apples are expected to be optimistic [2]. - Red dates: In 2024, the red date harvest exceeded expectations, and the spot inventory is at a high level. The prices of both futures and spot are at historical lows. The peak consumption season is over, and the off - season will last until September. The current demand is weak, and there is limited room for price increase. However, the cost of warehouse receipts provides some support, and the downside is also limited. The new - season red dates have started to sprout, and the market focus will shift to their growth conditions. In the short term, the price of red dates is expected to be volatile [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,752 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.05 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.30 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price closed higher yesterday. As the main contract switched and the production area entered the traditional peak season, the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase increased. The new - season apples are in the flowering period. In the short term, the apple price is expected to remain stable, and the weather conditions in the production area need to be tracked. The current inventory is at a five - year low, and the de - stocking pressure is small. The new - season apples in the western region are in the flowering period, and the impact of strong winds on pollination and the impact of low - temperature weather in the main production areas need to be focused on [2]. Strategy - Oscillating with an upward bias [3] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 9,485 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous day [3]. - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Market Analysis - The red date futures price closed higher yesterday. The supply of goods in the distribution area is sufficient. As the national weather warms up, the demand for warehousing increases, and the spot price is expected to remain stable. The 2024 red date harvest exceeded expectations, and the inventory is high. The peak consumption season is over, and the off - season will last until September. The new - season red dates have started to sprout, and the market focus will shift to their growth conditions [5]. Strategy - Neutral [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recently issued "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024-2035)" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council aims for significant progress in agricultural development by 2027, with a focus on enhancing food production capacity and ensuring self-sufficiency in key agricultural products [1] Group 1: Agricultural Production Capacity - By 2024, China's total grain production is projected to reach 14.13 trillion jin, marking the 21st consecutive year of bumper harvests and the first time surpassing the 1.4 trillion jin threshold, indicating strong resilience and potential in grain production [1] - The plan emphasizes the need for financial support to enhance comprehensive grain production capacity, targeting weak links such as independent breeding, agricultural machinery research and development, and technology transformation [1][2] Group 2: Financial Support and Risk Management - Financial support should also focus on upgrading and optimizing the grain industry chain through investments in storage logistics and agricultural product processing, which can increase the added value of grain and enhance production resilience [2] - Agricultural insurance is highlighted as a crucial risk management tool that can help farmers withstand natural disasters and market fluctuations, significantly reducing production risks [2] - The government is encouraged to implement policies that promote financial institutions to increase support for grain production, ensuring effective allocation of financial resources [2] Group 3: Integration of Finance and Agriculture - The deep integration of finance and grain production is expected to steadily enhance China's comprehensive grain production capacity [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Agricultural Products under Tariffs Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the agricultural products sector, particularly in the context of global tariff increases and their implications for various commodities [2][4][16]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: The agricultural products market is expected to experience a turbulent bottoming phase in 2025, influenced by unprecedented global tariff increases that accelerate structural changes without altering overall trends [2][16]. 2. **Commodity Segmentation**: Agricultural futures are categorized into four main segments: three oils and two meals (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil; soybean meal, rapeseed meal), corn, live pigs, and soft commodities (sugar, cotton) [2][4]. 3. **Import Dependency**: Over 80% of the raw materials for the three oils and two meals are imported, with China importing 100 million tons of soybeans annually, while domestic production is limited to 20 million tons primarily for food processing [2][4]. 4. **Pricing Mechanism**: Soybean crushing plants utilize futures markets for pricing, typically purchasing soybeans on the international market while shorting soybean meal and oil domestically. Post-tariff changes, these plants are likely to support soybean meal prices due to its higher value compared to oil [5][7]. 5. **Palm Oil Outlook**: Palm oil is expected to perform strongly in 2024 due to Indonesia's B40 policy promoting biodiesel consumption, but a decline is anticipated in 2025 as production recovers and biodiesel consumption stabilizes [9][16]. 6. **Corn Market**: The domestic corn market is primarily influenced by local supply and demand, with a projected narrowing of the production gap for the 2024-25 season. However, low import volumes are expected due to policy impacts, leading to a tighter domestic market [10][12]. 7. **Live Pig Market**: The live pig market is currently outperforming expectations, with structural issues leading to price stability despite a projected year-on-year decline in prices for 2025 [13][16]. 8. **Sugar Market**: The domestic sugar market is expected to remain stable in 2025, with production levels consistent and imports falling short of targets. Internationally, production declines in Brazil and India may exert upward pressure on prices [14][16]. 9. **Market Volatility**: The agricultural market is anticipated to enter a phase of low-level volatility in 2025, with potential fluctuations of 30% to 50% based on historical trends [16][17]. 10. **Impact of Extreme Weather**: Extreme weather events significantly affect agricultural yields and prices, with the potential for substantial fluctuations in soybean prices due to weather conditions in mid-2025 [18][19]. 11. **Trade Alternatives**: Reducing imports from the U.S. may lead to increased imports from Brazil or Southeast Asia, although logistical challenges may complicate this transition [19][20]. 12. **Global Supply Tightness**: A 30% reduction in U.S. soybean exports could lead to global supply tightness, with other regions struggling to compensate for the shortfall, resulting in increased costs for Chinese importers [20][21]. 13. **Market Response**: The market's response to tariff changes and supply chain disruptions has been slower than anticipated, leading to significant price adjustments and volatility [21][22]. Additional Important Insights - The concentration of the soybean crushing industry in China, with the top ten companies holding an 85% market share, indicates a high level of market control and influence over pricing strategies [6][7]. - The phenomenon of "flour being more expensive than bread" is attributed to procurement rhythms and market dynamics, exacerbated by unexpected tariff increases [8][16]. - The current agricultural market environment is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, with participants largely reacting to rapid changes rather than proactively preparing for them [22].