Market Insights - President Trump plans to appeal the global tariff ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court, citing an economic emergency in the U.S. He warns that a potential loss could lead to unprecedented market shocks [1] - Nearly 600 economists signed an open letter warning that the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could threaten the independence of the Fed and erode trust in the U.S. financial system [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for August rose slightly to 48.7 but remains below the market expectation of 49, marking the sixth consecutive month below the neutral line [3] Economic Indicators - Japan's CPI for August increased by 1.7%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.4 percentage points, the lowest since November of the previous year [4] - Eurozone's CPI for August rose by 2.1% year-on-year, while core CPI slightly decreased to 2.3%. Service prices saw a notable slowdown, increasing by 3.1% [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.55% to 45,295.81 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.69% and 0.82%, respectively [5] - Gold futures on COMEX rose by 1.51% to $3,599.5 per ounce, reaching a historical high [5] - U.S. oil futures increased by 1.56% to $65.62 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 1.39% to $69.10 per barrel [6] Bond Market - The yield on 30-year German bonds reached its highest level since 2011, while French 30-year bond yields hit a new high since 2009 [7] - U.S. Treasury yields increased across various maturities, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.50 basis points to 4.260% [7] Currency Movements - The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.66% to 98.32, with the Euro and British Pound both declining against the dollar [8]

Market Overview - Following the end of the three-day "Labor Day" holiday, major institutions are preparing for increased market volatility as the VIX index rose over 11% on Tuesday after a more than 6% increase on Friday [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data release is expected to further influence market volatility, with rising risk aversion leading to increased demand for gold [1][9] - Historically, September is the worst-performing month for U.S. and global stock markets, with concerns over Trump's potential threats to the Federal Reserve's independence and uncertainty surrounding his tariff policies contributing to market declines [1][2] Economic Indicators - The VIX index has reached its highest level in over a month, reflecting heightened investor anxiety regarding trade policies and upcoming economic data [9][10] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have surged, with the 10-year yield rising nearly 5 basis points to 4.269% and the 30-year yield approaching 5%, indicating pressure on stock valuations [3][4][6] Trade Policy Concerns - Doubts about the legality of Trump's tariffs have intensified market fears of potential global trade disruptions and increased budget deficits, leading to a sell-off in stocks and bonds [2][3] - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs has raised concerns about the future of U.S. trade negotiations and the potential for increased budget deficit anxiety [10] Non-Farm Payroll Data - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical for assessing the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of job growth below 100,000 for the fourth consecutive month [8][11] - Economists predict that the August non-farm payroll will show an increase of only 75,000 jobs, marking the weakest employment data since 2020 [10][11] Investment Strategies - Investors are seeking alternative assets to protect their portfolios amid market turbulence, with gold reaching a historical high of approximately $3,540 per ounce [9] - The rise in long-term bond yields is seen as a key level that could sway stock market demand, with a 10-year yield around 4.5% being a critical threshold [4][6]

Group 1: Gold Market - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining public trust in the institution [2] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August recorded at 48.7, below the expected 49, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector for six consecutive months [2] - Concerns over the Fed's independence are benefiting gold prices, which have seen a strong upward trend, surpassing $3,500 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Bridgewater founder Dalio warns of an impending debt crisis in the U.S. due to excessive spending, with total U.S. debt reaching $37.3 trillion and interest payments exceeding $1 trillion [4] - The price of Russian Urals crude oil is $3-4 cheaper than Brent, making it more attractive for India despite a temporary reduction in imports [4] - Oil prices have been fluctuating between $62 and $65 since mid-August, with a recent short-term breakout above $65 [5] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July but have since stabilized between $4.32 and $4.50, recently breaking above the $4.50 resistance level [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is showing a weak downward trend, with strong support around the 41,800 level; a breakout above 42,400 could signal a return to an upward trend [8]

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美联储独立性被质疑，美国数据支持降息，特兰普关税被裁定不合法，9 月份降息在 | | ★★★ | 做多 | 即，关注区间上方 803、810 附近表现。中长期，主要国家货币政策宽松，央行继续 | | | | 买黄金，地缘格局重塑，黄金有资产配置需求。长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | | | 短期白银跟随黄金市场波动，资金流入较多，破历史新高，白银自身由于双宽政策 | | 白银 | 做多 | 积极，中长期全球流动性和各国再工业化，使得需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，供需 | | ★★ | | 缺口明显，白银向上趋势不变。但是谨防短期美元流动性风险 | | | | 宏微共振，沪铜重回 8 万大关，建议多单继续持有，新入场回调轻仓试多，中长期， | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，对铜长期看好。 | | ★★ | | | | | | 宏观和板块情绪积极，沪锌跟涨外盘，但国内需求疲软库存累库叠加政策真空期， | | 锌 | 反弹沽空 ...

2023年8月25日深夜，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普在其创立的社交媒体平台\"真实社交\"上发表了一封极具火药味的公开声明。这份措辞强硬的声明中，特朗 普援引美国宪法第二条和1913年《联邦储备法》的具体条款，宣布立即解除美联储理事莉萨·库克的职务。声明指控库克在2021年申请两笔住房贷款时存在 \"虚报主要住所\"的行为，涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈，并称其行为\"令人难以置信\"，已经完全丧失了作为金融监管者的公信力。 在您开始阅读本文之前，衷心感谢您点击\"关注\"按钮。您的每一次互动不仅为我们的讨论创造了宝贵空间，也为内容传播提供了重要支持，这份参与感让 我们倍感珍惜！ 美联储在此事件中的态度颇为耐人寻味。对外，该机构拒绝就库克的身份问题发表评论，仅表示将严格遵守法院最终判决；但在内部运作中，仍将库克视为 在任理事对待。这种\"制度性缄默\"既体现了对法律的尊重，也是一种不动声色的抵抗，在司法裁决前以实际行为维护着机构的完整性。 值得注意的是，特朗普对库克的指控明显带有精心设计的政治色彩。法律专家普遍认为，这类房产纠纷通常只会通过民事和解方式解决，甚至可能只是简单 的\"文书填写失误\"。然而特朗普却刻意将其升级为 ...

美债被看空！ 日前，澳大利亚第二大养老基金透露，已减持美国债券，主要是担心华盛顿的政策可能引发通胀。该基 金管理着3300亿澳元（2160亿美元）的资产。 当地时间9月2日，美国国债跌势扩大，30年期国债收益率逼近5%。截至记者发稿，美国10年期国债收 益率上涨7个基点至4.2984%；30年期国债收益率上涨6.7个基点至4.9883%。 Temple表示，随着长期市场利率上升，债券市场在传递这样的信号："这不是我们所期待的。我们想要 的是一个独立的美联储。" 美股也有隐忧 与此同时，对冲基金对美股也保持谨慎。有数据显示，对冲基金并未参与美股8月的上涨，反而持续卖 出。 周二，美股三大指数集体下跌，纳指盘中一度跌近2%。截至收盘，道指跌0.55%，纳指跌0.82%，标普 500指数跌0.69%。大型科技股多数下跌，英伟达跌近2%，亚马逊、苹果、特斯拉跌超1%。中国资产逆 市上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.52%，理想汽车涨超4%，蔚来涨超3%，阿里巴巴涨2.63%。 卖出美债 澳大利亚第二大养老基金——澳大利亚退休信托基金（ART）对美国国债的看法日益悲观。近日，该基 金的高级投资组合经理Jimmy Lou ...

Group 1 - The Australian Retirement Trust (ART), the second-largest pension fund in Australia, has reduced its holdings in U.S. bonds due to concerns that Washington's policies may trigger inflation. The fund manages assets worth 330 billion AUD (approximately 216 billion USD) [1][4] - As of September 2, U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7 basis points to 4.2984% and the 30-year yield rising by 6.7 basis points to 4.9883% [1] - ART's senior investment manager, Jimmy Louca, indicated that the fund is favoring investments in markets like the UK and Australia, citing concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and potential inflationary pressures from increased government spending [4] Group 2 - Hedge funds have maintained a cautious stance towards U.S. equities, with data showing they did not participate in the market's rise in August and continued to sell off positions [2][6] - On September 2, major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.55%, Nasdaq down 0.82%, and S&P 500 down 0.69%. Notably, large tech stocks like Nvidia and Amazon also saw declines [2] - Historical data indicates that nearly half of the years in the past 20 have shown negative returns for the U.S. stock market in September, raising concerns about potential sell-offs [8] Group 3 - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased following President Trump's pressure on the institution, leading to a widening gap between the yields of 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries, reaching the highest level since 2021 [5] - UBS reported that the current direct stock holdings of U.S. investors relative to their income have reached a historical high, with projections indicating that by 2025, this ratio could reach 265% of disposable income [9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in gold prices, with London spot gold surpassing $3500 per ounce and COMEX gold futures reaching $3599.5 per ounce, marking historical highs [1][2] Group 1: Price Movement and Trends - Gold prices have increased by 5% since August, achieving the best performance since April [1] - Year-to-date, COMEX gold has risen by 36% [1] - After a four-month period of consolidation, gold prices resumed their upward trend in late August, breaking previous highs [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The primary driver of the recent gold price increase is the changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in September [3] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - Global geopolitical instability has also contributed to the rising demand for gold [5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The structural weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system, exacerbated by rising government debt, is expected to support gold's long-term value [6] - As of August 12, U.S. national debt exceeded $37 trillion, significantly outpacing previous forecasts [6] - Central banks, including China's, are increasing their gold reserves, indicating a sustained bullish outlook for gold [7] Group 4: Investment Vehicles - Investors interested in gold can consider the Gold ETF (518800), which directly corresponds to physical gold holdings [8] - The Gold ETF has seen significant inflows, with its scale exceeding $17.2 billion and growing by nearly $10 billion this year [9]

Group 1 - Good Products' acquisition case has entered the acceptance stage, with Wuhan Yangtze International Trade Group acquiring 29.99% of Good Products' shares [6][7] - Bawang Tea has officially entered the Philippine market, opening three stores in key business districts and selling over 23,000 cups in the first three days [8] - Nestlé's CEO was dismissed due to a romantic relationship with a subordinate, which violated the company's code of conduct [3] Group 2 - Yushun Technology plans to submit an IPO application to the Chinese stock exchange between October and December 2025, with quadruped and humanoid robots expected to account for 65% and 30% of sales in 2024, respectively [2] - Tencent responded to a lawsuit from miHoYo, stating it will comply with legal regulations regarding user data requests [6] - The fast delivery industry is experiencing a price increase in core areas, driven by a national "anti-involution" policy aimed at improving profitability [11] Group 3 - The current spot gold price has surpassed $3,500 per ounce, marking a historical high with a year-to-date increase of over 33% [11] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices decline, while many Chinese concept stocks experienced gains [12] - Google was ruled not to divest its Chrome and Android systems in an antitrust case, but must share data with competitors [13] Group 4 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a visa-free policy for Russian passport holders from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [5] - WeChat's customer service clarified that inactive accounts may be reclaimed by the system after one year of inactivity, leading to the loss of all associated data [4] - The company "Sina" announced the resignation of its CEO due to an investigation into the purchase of illegal health products [16] Group 5 - Companies such as Jiadou Technology and XGIMI Technology are planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance competitiveness and international presence [17][19] - "Si Ai Ran Medical" completed a financing round exceeding 100 million yuan to advance its ophthalmic medical device product line [22] - "Lai Mu Technology" secured several million yuan in Series A financing to enhance its smart lawnmower product development and market expansion [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the New South Wales Treasury Corporation's significant reduction of USD exposure has yielded substantial returns, preparing for a further decline in the USD exchange rate, reinforcing the logic of a long-term USD bear market [1][2] - The Treasury Corporation has reduced its USD weight in its foreign exchange investment portfolio from nearly 75% to approximately 14%, indicating a strategic shift towards defensive currencies like JPY, CHF, and EUR [1] - The Chief Investment Officer, Stuart Brentnall, anticipates a further 10% decline in the USD, highlighting the impact of U.S. policy uncertainty and potential Fed rate cuts on the currency's performance [1][3] Group 2 - The recent strategy shift has resulted in a 2% increase in investment returns over the past year, with unhedged positions outperforming hedged ones by about 7% [2] - Analysts expect the USD to continue its downward trajectory, with an anticipated 8% decline for the remainder of the year, reflecting ongoing economic slowdown and Fed rate cut preparations [3] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, exacerbated by political tensions, are eroding the USD's safe-haven status, leading to increased demand for alternative assets like gold and silver [4][5]