美国总统特朗普周三表示，他认为美联储下调美国基准利率这件事 "没什么可怀疑的"。 特朗普在接受美国媒体采访时称，他相信自己提名的下任美联储主席人选凯文・沃什，能够理解他希望 下调利率的立场。当被问及沃什是否清楚他希望其下调利率时，特朗普回应道："我认为他是清楚的， 而且我觉得即便没有我的要求，他本身也打算这么做。"他还补充道："我的意思是，如果他过来跟我 说'我想要加息'，他根本就得不到这个职位，绝对不可能。" 新主席提名进程受阻 联邦基金利率期货定价显示，市场预期今年美联储首次降息或发生在7月，而新美联储主席首次亮相的6 月概率仅为56%。 上任挑战不小 特朗普上一次提名美联储主席时，曾偕鲍威尔现身白宫玫瑰园共同出席活动。但这一次，特朗普通过社 交媒体宣布提名凯文・沃什接替鲍威尔，而自那以后，沃什便再未公开露面。 近30年来，发表公开表态早已是美联储主席提名流程中的常规环节。因此，沃什这次的举动让外界有些 惊讶与失望。市场人士表示，沃什过去数日的沉默，或许正是美联储 "减少发声"的首个信号，而这也 是沃什希望改变美联储运作模式的方式之一。自2011年卸任美联储理事以来，沃什对美联储的一贯批评 点之一，便是美 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan after 3.775 trillion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - From February 2 to February 4, the cumulative net withdrawal of 7-day reverse repos by the PBOC amounted to 674.5 billion yuan, indicating a stable liquidity environment ahead of the Spring Festival [1] - Analysts expect that as the Spring Festival approaches, the PBOC may shift to net liquidity injection through reverse repos and potentially utilize 14-day reverse repos to mitigate liquidity fluctuations [1] Group 2 - In January, the PBOC reported a net liquidity injection of 700 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and a net injection of 100 billion yuan from government bond transactions, marking a significant increase compared to previous months [2] - The PBOC's approach to government bond transactions will be flexible, considering various factors to maintain ample liquidity and support the smooth issuance of government bonds [2] - The expectation for net bond purchases to gradually increase in February, with a projected net injection of around 100 billion yuan, reflects a cautious outlook on monetary policy [2] Group 3 - The large-scale liquidity injection by the PBOC in January reduces the urgency for a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut before the Spring Festival, indicating a shift to an observation period for monetary policy [3] - The continuation of MLF operations and the resumption of 3-month reverse repos in February are seen as alternatives to an RRR cut, further decreasing the likelihood of such measures in the short term [3] - Analysts predict that the window for potential interest rate cuts or RRR reductions may open in the second quarter of the year, particularly in light of government bond issuance pressures [3]

Global Economic Landscape - The global economic growth rate is projected to be around 3.0% in 2026, with the US stabilizing at approximately 2%, while the EU and Japan are expected to grow at 1.4% and 0.5% respectively [2][36] - Emerging economies like China, India, and the UAE are maintaining mid-to-high-speed growth, becoming significant engines of global economic development [2][43] Fiscal Policies - Expansionary fiscal policies are becoming mainstream, with developed and emerging economies maintaining high fiscal deficit rates of around 5.0% and 6.0% respectively, leading to rising government debt levels [2][36] - The sustainability of government debt is increasingly being challenged, particularly in the US and Japan [2][36] Supply Chain Restructuring - The trend of localization and regionalization is reshaping global supply chains, with the US controlling high-end segments, China becoming an indispensable "central node," and ASEAN and Latin America attracting investments due to their geographical advantages [2][36] Commodity Prices - Commodity price trends are diverging, with gold prices expected to rise above $6,000 per ounce driven by geopolitical risks and Fed rate cut expectations, while international crude oil prices may further decline to around $57 per barrel [2][36] Technological and ESG Developments - The AI sector continues to innovate, with multi-agent systems and humanoid robots gaining attention, although investment bubble risks exist [2][36] - ESG development is progressing with significant disparities, as Europe leads, China advances steadily, and the US lags behind, moving towards sustainable development [2][36] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical conflicts are identified as the largest risk in 2026, with the US executing Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere and increasing tensions in regions like Latin America and the Arctic [7][15] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to continue as a war of attrition, while the Middle East faces heightened risks due to the spillover effects of the Israel-Palestine conflict [15][20] Central Bank Policies - There are significant differences in global central bank monetary policies, with the Fed expected to adopt a more accommodative stance, potentially cutting rates 2-3 times in 2026 [24][27] - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain a "middle strategy," keeping rates around 2% to balance inflation and growth [28][30] - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising rates to around 1%, facing challenges from policy contradictions and currency pressures [34][36]

近期部分中小银行提高存款利率，一般均设定了额度限制或期限限制，部分产品利率上浮一度达到 20BP。《中国经营报》记者采访了解到，存款利率提高属于"开门红"高息揽储，长期不可持续，利率 下滑的大趋势并未改变。 产品利率上调 部分中小银行近期发布公告，对存款利率进行调整。 中经记者 慈玉鹏 北京报道 记者了解到，目前存款利率走势正处于分化阶段。例如，一家中小银行2月4日发布公告表示存款利率整 体调整，该行人士告诉记者，此次调整后，整体利率下调。 记者查阅发现，该行2月4日公告信息显示，20万元起存大额存单1年期年利率1.35%，3年期年利率 1.45%；而该行此前公告，起存金额20万元，1年期、2年期大额存单利率分别为1.50%、1.55%。此次调 整分别下调15BP、10BP。 一位地方银行人士告诉记者，部分中小银行开门红为揽储提高存款利率，但整体来看，目前利率仍呈现 下降趋势，存款利率提高属于短期现象。 从大背景看，记者注意到，2026年中国人民银行工作会议指出，将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，促 进社会综合融资成本低位运行。为减轻银行净息差压力，存款利率大概率会随之下调。 例如，湖南新晃农村商业银行2月4日 ...

新华财经布鲁塞尔2月4日电欧盟统计局4日公布的初步统计数据显示，欧元区1月通胀率按年率计算为 1.7%，较去年12月的2.0%有所下滑，也略低于欧洲央行2%的中期通胀目标。 欧洲央行去年12月决定维持欧元区三大关键利率不变，这是其自去年7月以来连续第四次维持利率不 变。市场普遍预期，欧洲央行将在5日的货币政策会议上维持现有关键利率水平。 市场服务机构晨星公司策略师迈克尔·菲尔德说，欧洲央行决策非常谨慎，既希望刺激经济，又要避免 通胀反弹。他认为，鉴于近期通胀率持续稳定在较低水平，欧洲央行应该将更多精力放在促进经济增长 上。 （文章来源：新华社） 数据显示，欧元区1月食品和烟酒价格上涨2.7%，服务价格上涨3.2%，非能源类工业产品价格上涨 0.4%，能源价格下降4.1%。能源价格下滑是欧元区通胀下降的主要因素。当月，剔除能源、食品和烟 酒价格的核心通胀率为2.2%。 ...

市场服务机构晨星公司策略师迈克尔·菲尔德说，欧洲央行决策非常谨慎，既希望刺激经济，又要 避免通胀反弹。他认为，鉴于近期通胀率持续稳定在较低水平，欧洲央行应该将更多精力放在促进经济 增长上。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 新华社布鲁塞尔2月4日电 欧盟统计局4日公布的初步统计数据显示，欧元区1月通胀率按年率计算 为1.7%，较去年12月的2.0%有所下滑，也略低于欧洲央行2%的中期通胀目标。 数据显示，欧元区1月食品和烟酒价格上涨2.7%，服务价格上涨3.2%，非能源类工业产品价格上涨 0.4%，能源价格下降4.1%。能源价格下滑是欧元区通胀下降的主要因素。当月，剔除能源、食品和烟 酒价格的核心通胀率为2.2%。 欧洲央行去年12月决定维持欧元区三大关键利率不变，这是其自去年7月以来连续第四次维持利率 不变。市场普遍预期，欧洲央行将在5日的货币政策会议上维持现有关键利率水平。 ...

海外宏观利率攻略系列 美联储利率走廊制度演变回顾 glmszqdatemark | [Table_Author] | | --- | | 分析师 | 徐亮 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 黄涵静 | | 执业证书： S0590125110075 | | | 邮箱： | huanghanjing@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 1． 流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：资金波澜 再起-2026/01/28 2． 指数增强策略系列： 基于科创债 ETF 的增 强策略-2026/01/27 3． 信用债周策略 20260126：怎么看民企发 债热度回升？-2026/01/26 4． 债券策略周报 20260125：当前各债券品 种及期限的定价分析-2026/01/25 5． 海外利率周报 20260125：美债延续高位 小幅波动格局-2026/01/25 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 02 月 04 日 为什么要研究美国的利率走 ...

据央视新闻，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，今天（2月4日）中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限 为3个月（91天）。 买断式逆回购是中国人民银行于2024年10月推出的新工具，是在央行每日根据一级交易商需求连续开展7天期逆回购操作的基础上，额外投放的中长期资 金。买断式逆回购可以使央行更加及时、精准地调节市场流动性。 此外，2月4日，央行公告称，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了750亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.4%。因今日有3775亿元7天期逆回购和7000亿元3 个月（91天）买断式逆回购到期，叠加央行开展的8000亿元3个月（91天）买断式逆回购操作，实现净回笼2025亿元。 | | | | 中国人民银行 | 货币政策司 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | Monetary Policy Department | | | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is seen as a significant move that could "re-anchor the credibility of the Federal Reserve" and has strong implications for gold and silver markets [1]. Group 1: Nomination and Background - Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve Governor, has been nominated by President Trump to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, pending Senate confirmation [1]. - Warsh, aged 55, served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 and was involved in the coordination efforts during the 2008 financial crisis [1][3]. - After leaving the Fed, Warsh has been active in academic and policy research, contributing to discussions on monetary policy and central banking [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role and Independence - The Federal Reserve is crucial in formulating monetary policy, maintaining financial stability, and regulating certain financial institutions, with its decisions impacting U.S. Treasury yields, dollar exchange rates, and stock market expectations [3][4]. - Historically, the Federal Reserve has been viewed as one of the most independent institutions in the U.S. government, designed to minimize political influence on monetary policy [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Warsh's nomination, U.S. financial markets reacted negatively, with major stock indices declining between 0.2% and 1%, and bond yields rising, indicating a reassessment of future monetary policy [4][6]. - The simultaneous movement in stock and bond markets was attributed to investor recalibration of policy expectations rather than new macroeconomic data [4]. Group 4: Challenges to Independence - The Federal Reserve's independence is under unprecedented pressure, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to significant asset purchases and a substantial increase in its balance sheet [5][6]. - The blurred lines between monetary and fiscal policy have raised questions about the Fed's technical independence amid rising public and political scrutiny [5][6]. Group 5: Policy Implications - The ongoing debates surrounding interest rates, inflation control, and trade policies highlight the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, especially under the Trump administration [6][7]. - Warsh's approach to monetary policy is expected to emphasize credibility, discipline, and clear boundaries, contrasting with Powell's more pragmatic style [10][11]. - The effectiveness of Warsh's proposed monetary policy framework, which focuses on institutional credibility, will depend on balancing short-term stability with long-term constraints in a complex economic environment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Kevin Warsh's appointment as the next Federal Reserve Chair, questioning whether he will adopt a hawkish stance on inflation or align with political pressures from Trump [1][2]. Group 1: Warsh's Economic Philosophy - Warsh is characterized as a typical "hard currency" central banker, emphasizing the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence and the dangers of excessive monetary policy intervention [3]. - In a 2010 speech, Warsh outlined four key points regarding the Fed's responsibilities, including the need to resist becoming the ultimate rescuer and the importance of maintaining a reputation for historical significance rather than political expediency [3]. - His recent criticisms of the Fed's performance suggest a continuity of his hardline stance, particularly regarding the need for price stability and the dangers of fiscal dominance over monetary policy [4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Implications - The article raises concerns about Warsh's potential to act as a political tool, shifting his stance on monetary policy based on the ruling party, which could lead to unpredictable economic risks [2]. - Trump's choice of Warsh, despite his own fiscal dominance, suggests a complex relationship where Warsh's criticisms of the Fed's expansion may align with Trump's agenda [5][6]. - The potential for Warsh to adopt a more lenient view on inflation due to technological advancements raises questions about the risks associated with such a shift, especially given the current economic context of high fiscal deficits [6]. Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - Concerns persist regarding Warsh's willingness to defend Trump's policies, which may lead to a scenario where fiscal expansion and deregulation undermine monetary discipline, potentially sowing the seeds for a financial crisis [8]. - The article warns that the combination of short-term political considerations and long-term economic stability could heighten systemic risks within the financial system [9]. - The need for a Federal Reserve Chair who can resist political pressures is emphasized, with the current chair, Powell, being recognized for his ability to maintain independence [9].