中美贸易正在重新"活跃"起来。 5月15日晚，经济观察报记者从一场外贸行业线上交流会上获悉，随着中国出口美国货物恢复发 运，业内预计海运价格的上涨潮已拉开序幕。 "中国始发货量或将出现短线激增，并在6月底迎来 高峰。" 5月15日下午，有国际货运界人士告诉经济观察报记者。 "一部分客户立刻恢复了生产、出货，一部分还在观望，需要谈新的价格。"5月14日上午，鸿利达 控股有限公司（下称"鸿利达"）首席商务官蔡铭峰对经济观察报记者如是说。 同日，广东微电新能源有限公司（下称"微电新能源"）董事长陈志勇亦向经济观察报记者表示，自 今年4月以来美国大幅对华加征关税，公司暂停了出口美国的合作订单。"现在可以重启了。"他 说，当下第一步是清理库存。 5月12日，商务部新闻发言人就《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（下称《联合声明》）发表谈话 时表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的 加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"（暂停90天），中方 也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税（暂停90天）。这一举措符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合 两国利益和世 ...

Report Summary - The synthetic rubber outperformed natural rubber this week. The rise of synthetic rubber was mainly due to the sharp increase in the price of butadiene. For natural rubber, recent weather affected the tapping progress, leading to less raw material output and high purchase prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed after the holiday, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was still difficult and had not recovered to last year's level. Macroscopically, the substantial progress in the Sino - US tariff negotiation and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs exceeded market expectations, and the pessimistic sentiment was repaired. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [6][24]. - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the US since May 14, 2025. The tariff rate in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The tariff measures in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped [7]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 8.9% and 9.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.251 million and 1.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 43.8% and 44.2%. In April, automobile exports reached 517,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [7]. - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy applications exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy applications reached 3.225 million, with over 53% for new energy vehicles [7]. - The weekly rainfall in global natural rubber producing areas increased, and the rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas would increase in the next two weeks, affecting tapping [7]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials was strong. Qingdao Port's inventory increased while the general trade inventory decreased. The butadiene price rose rapidly, increasing the losses of butadiene rubber producers. The inventory of butadiene rubber factories and traders decreased. The overall tire capacity utilization rebounded [7]. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors included strong raw material prices strengthening cost support and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US. Bearish factors were the difficult inventory removal of tire companies suppressing capacity utilization and the difficult inventory removal in Qingdao [10]. Data Analysis - As of May 15, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 61.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 54.15 Thai baht/kg. The glue price in Yunnan, China, was 13,800 yuan/ton. The raw material prices at home and abroad moved up compared with last week. Weather affected the tapping progress, resulting in less output and high prices, strengthening cost support [12]. - As of the week of May 9, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 89,994 tons, an increase of 5,003 tons, and the general trade spot inventory was 528,699 tons, a decrease of 497 tons. After the holiday, the macro - sentiment and the recovery of downstream production drove some terminal purchases, but the inventory in Qingdao fluctuated slightly [13]. - This week, the domestic butadiene market rose rapidly. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs drove up the prices of commodities and related products in the butadiene industry chain. The port inventory decreased, some devices had unplanned maintenance, and merchants held back goods, tightening the supply. The market's unexpected rise stimulated downstream chasing sentiment, but as the price reached a high level, downstream buying became cautious. As of May 15, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was 11,200 - 11,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 700 yuan/ton [15]. - As of the week of May 16, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons. The easing of the macro - atmosphere this week boosted the spot trading sentiment, and both factory and trader inventories decreased [17]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the capacity utilization of all - steel tires was 59.88%, an increase of 18.19% from last week, and the inventory - available days of all - steel tires in Shandong factories were 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days. The capacity utilization of semi - steel tires was 71.21%, an increase of 24.5% from last week, and the inventory - available days of semi - steel tires in Shandong factories were 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days. After the holiday, production resumed, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was difficult and had not recovered to last year's level [19]. - As of May 15, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract was weak. Affected by the short - term strength of synthetic rubber, the spread of the "NR - BR" September contract declined [21]. Market Outlook - The rise of synthetic rubber was due to the sharp increase in butadiene prices. For natural rubber, weather affected tapping, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed but the capacity utilization had limited upside as inventory removal was difficult. Macroscopically, the Sino - US tariff negotiation improved market sentiment. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [24].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the recent adjustments in tariffs between the US and China, particularly focusing on the urgency faced by Chinese exporters to fulfill orders from American clients within a limited timeframe of two and a half months [1][3] - The US has canceled a total of 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods since April 8, while retaining 10% of tariffs, leading to a current effective tariff rate of 30% on Chinese products due to previous tariffs related to the fentanyl issue [1][4] - The urgency is particularly felt by businesses like those in Yiwu, where a significant portion of their revenue comes from exports to the US, with one business reporting that 50% of its sales are to American clients [1][3] Group 2 - Companies are experiencing a surge in inquiries and orders following the tariff adjustments, with one company reporting an order volume of approximately 2 million RMB from three clients who resumed normal operations [1][4] - Despite the positive response from some clients, other businesses are still facing challenges as many American customers remain cautious and are observing the situation before placing new orders [6] - The article highlights a shift in focus for some companies towards domestic sales and adapting to new market conditions, as the remaining tariffs still pose challenges for seasonal products [6]

Economic Indicators - In the first four months of 2025, China's RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 8% year-on-year to 325.17 trillion yuan[11] - The total social financing increment for the same period was 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan compared to the previous year[15] - By the end of April 2025, the social financing scale stock was 424.0 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7%[16] Loan and Financing Structure - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 262.27 trillion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year, accounting for 61.9% of the total social financing stock[17] - Foreign currency loans to the real economy decreased by 33.9% year-on-year, with a balance of 1.18 trillion yuan[16] - Government bond net financing reached 4.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.58 trillion yuan[15] Market Reactions and Trade Agreements - The US and China agreed to suspend 24% tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days, retaining a 10% tariff, which may ease cost pressures for businesses[23] - The agreement is expected to boost market sentiment in US stocks and commodities, benefiting China's export sectors significantly[23] - However, the retained tariffs and ongoing technological barriers in sectors like semiconductors and AI remain a concern for long-term trade dynamics[23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, affected by the significant breakthrough in China-US tariff negotiations, the container shipping European route opened higher in the morning. The market expected significant tariff benefits after the closing, and almost all contracts hit the daily limit. On Tuesday, the market sentiment subsided, and concerns about tariff reversals and the strength of the linkage between the European and US routes emerged [9]. - The current spot freight rate has fallen below the long - term contract price and is approaching the cost line, with limited downward space. The 1350$/FEU is an important observation point to see if airlines will "reduce ships" for reporting purposes. The European route freight is in a state of oversupply, with general cargo volume and relatively large supply [9]. - The view that demand is postponed after the tariff suspension has been largely disproven. The 08 peak - season contract will benefit the most, and there may be a rush to export during the peak season in the next 90 days, with some overseas importers starting to replenish inventory for year - end holidays [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI)**: The present value is 1345, with a 0.32% increase from the previous value of 1341 [5]. - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The present value is 1106, a 1.31% decrease from the previous value of 1121 [5]. - **SCFI Sub - routes**: SCFI - US West increased by 3.30% to 2347; SCFIS - US West rose by 10.19% to 1455; SCFI - US East increased by 1.58% to 3335; SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 3.25% to 1161; SCFIS - Northwest Europe dropped by 5.54% to 1303; SCFI - Mediterranean remained unchanged at 2089 [5]. 3.2 EC Contracts - **Contract Prices**: EC2506 increased by 3.55% to 1787.3; EC2508 rose by 7.92% to 2359.3; EC2510 decreased by 5.01% to 1464.7; EC2512 dropped by 5.78% to 1611.2; EC2602 decreased by 4.56% to 1449.0; EC2604 decreased by 3.11% to 1273.2 [5]. - **Contract Positions**: EC2506's position increased by 61 to 38562; EC2508's position increased by 2731 to 48514; EC2410's position increased by 578 to 24456; EC2412's position increased by 110 to 5104; EC2602's position decreased by 29 to 3294; EC2604's position increased by 353 to 3455 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 spread increased by 250.5 to 894.6; the 12 - 2 spread increased by 21.5 to - 146.5; the 12 - 4 spread decreased by 57.9 to 338.0 [5]. 3.3 Tariff Adjustments - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [5]. - The US will suspend the 24% tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macao) for the initial 90 days and retain the remaining 10% tariff, and cancel the additional tariffs imposed by certain executive orders [6]. - The US will reduce the tariff on small parcels from 120% to 54%, maintain a 100 - dollar per - item specific tariff, and cancel the planned increase to 200 dollars [6]. 3.4 Market Strategies - Long positions and arbitrage can be gradually closed for profit [10]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 螺纹钢市场周报 中美关税互降，螺纹钢期价冲高回调 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 1. 价格及价差：截至5月16日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3082（+60），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3240（+90）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：螺纹产量小幅上调。226.53（+3）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：市场信心回暖，表观需求增加。本期表需260.29（+46.39），（同比-30.02）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库与社库双降，总库存下滑。螺纹钢总库存619.87（-33.76），（同比-206.66）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周增加0.44个百分点，同比去年增加7.36个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，美国调整对华加征关税，于美东时间5月14日 ...

智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 5月14日12时1分（美东时间5月14日0时1分）起，中美相互调整后的关税正式实施，中美各取消91%的 关税、暂停实施24%的"对等关税"90天，保留剩余10%的关税。 值得注意的是，今年2月，中国已对美LNG加征15%关税，对原油加征10%关税。 因此，此次中美关税政策调整后，中国对于进口美国LNG的关税仍为25%，进口美国原油的关税为 20%。 在此背景下，中国自3月以来已停止进口美国产LNG。 海关总署数据显示，今年2月中国自美国进口LNG为6.57万吨，环比1月的19.42万吨减少66%，同比去年 的6.95万吨持平。今年3月，中国自美国进口LNG为0，去年同期为41.25万吨。 据欧洲调查公司Kpler的船舶追踪数据显示，截至5月中旬，中国对美国产LNG的进口量仍然为零。 短期内，美国LNG将难返中国市场。 卓创资讯天然气分析师冯海城对智通财经表示，由于目前欧洲的补库及其他替代性需求比较旺盛，且价 格也高，资源去往欧洲的经济性会更强。 因此，预计短期内美国LNG不会来到国内，待国内需求逐渐改善如在旺季开启前，或有部分美国LNG 得到恢复，但届时也要看降低关税政策的延续性问题 ...

Core Viewpoint - Following the latest adjustments in China-US tariff policies, many foreign trade companies in regions like Shanghai and Jiangxi have resumed supplying the US market, leading to a surge in orders and shipping demands [1][6]. Group 1: Order and Production Surge - A foreign trade company in Yangzhou received five emails from US clients, resulting in over 5 million yuan in new orders, with clients eager to expedite delivery times [1]. - In Jiangxi, a textile company is working overtime to fulfill a new order of 100,000 sets of children's clothing, with orders scheduled through September [3]. - A knitting factory in Shanghai is preparing to ship products as US clients have resumed orders, with plans to start shipping by May 17 if inspections are passed [4]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Recovery - Companies have not only expanded into European and domestic markets but are also quickly restoring exports to the US, with expectations of surpassing 100 million yuan in US orders this year [6]. - A helmet manufacturing company in Ganzhou received a request to resume supplying over 500,000 helmets to US clients, indicating a strong recovery in demand [6]. - Merchants in Yiwu are experiencing rapid order placements from US clients, although some previously delayed shipments have already been sold to other markets due to tariff issues [8][9]. Group 3: Logistics and Shipping Challenges - The logistics sector is witnessing a surge in orders due to the increased shipping demands from foreign trade companies, leading to a peak in exports to the US [11]. - According to trade tracking agency Vizion, container booking volumes from China to the US surged nearly 300% following the tariff reductions, with average bookings rising from 5,709 to 21,530 standard containers within a week [13]. - Shenzhen Yantian Port is handling over a quarter of the national export volume to the US, with shipping processes accelerating as clients aim to stockpile goods during the 90-day window [14].

【原油】 隔夜国际油价回落,布伦特07合约跌1.87%。哈梅内伊及特朗普关于美伊接近达成核协议的表态令 市场对伊朗石油制裁解除、供应风险弱化增加预期,但伊朗高级官员关于尚未收到关于解决核争端 未决分歧的美国最新提议又令这一预期有所修复,油价部分收复跌幅。考虑到OPEC+已进入快速增 产周期,美伊核谈判、俄乌和谈总体处于她缘缓和趋势,相关供应制裁风险趋于弱化,关税降级带 动的油价反弹空间不过分乐观,油价阶段性修复完成后将再度承压。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属先抑后扬波动剧烈。美国公布零售销售月率0.1%略超预期但低于前值,周度初请失业金 人数22.9万人基本持平预期和前值,PP1录得2.4%与CP1超同表现大幅降温。美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 称正在调整其总体政策制定框架,引起市场对于未来走向宽松的猜想。近期市场降低对于美国经济 滚退的抑注,降息路径仍将博弈,国际金价处于调整中,3000美元/盎司位置具备较强支撑,维持 回调买入思路。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收回亚洲盘跌幅,沪铜加权反弹回近7.8万。美国森信销售、PPI数据皆弱于预期，海外投 行对铜持谨慎态度。2505最 ...

5 月 15 日，深圳盐田港 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 黄敏璇 胡梦然 深圳摄影报道 5月14日，中美互降关税纷纷落地。北京时间5月14日12时01分起，中国调整对美商品税率，由34%调整为10%， 并在90天内暂停实施24%的关税；美东时间5月14日凌晨00:01起，美国也调整对华商品税率，24%的关税暂停加征 90天，保留剩余10%关税。 90天暂停期，一个让外贸从业者喜出望外的黄金窗口期正式开启，随之而来的是中美货运市场的强势反弹。 关税落地的24小时内，《华夏时报》记者多方采访了解到，5月美线运费涨幅最高已达2200美元/大柜，6月预计还 将大幅上涨；跨境卖家纷纷赶着发货，有货代从业者表示仓库已经爆满，正在加快报关出货；深圳盐田港进出港 货车也开始有所增加，货柜车司机临时接单跑不停。 壹航运创始人钟哲超接受本报记者采访时表示："美线运价预计短期内受需求影响还将持续上涨。而货量方面，由 于企业出口还需经过报关、拖车、装运等流程，预计未来一周港口码头会开始出现第一波美线发货高峰期。" 工厂抢发货，旺季提前到 5月15日上午10点，距离中美互降关税落地不到24个小时，货柜车 ...