日本央行以9-0的投票比例维持利率不变。 日本央行维持利率在0.5%不变，符合预期。 ...

实际上，货币汇率才是解决问题的关键所在。 相信时至今日，整个市场都已经相信。 前言 依稀记得去年12月5日的文中，我们提到CBA发布的预测报告表明，该行对澳元未来走势的预期急剧转 向悲观。 预测指出，澳元可能在2025年跌至60美分，甚至更低水平。在此之前，CBA曾乐观预测澳元能在2026 年底前回升至70美分，但目前该行认为这一反弹前景可能难以实现。 CBA国际经济主管Joseph Capurso指出："若全球贸易战的规模超出预期，并带来更具破坏性的影响，澳 元的下跌趋势可能会进一步加剧，并更快到来。" 但是笔者提出逆市场共识的，即随着特朗普的上任，美元指数或将下一个台阶运行。特朗普的核心需求 的实现必然需要伴随弱美元。 美国的关税也并未核心议题，谈判的核心议题究竟为何？ RBA最新货币政策及其影响 从澳洲内部来看，澳大利亚经济增速放缓。 2025年第一季度GDP环比仅增长0.2%，同比增速约1.3%。季报指出公共部门支出回落和极端天气冲击 对增幅产生压制作用。 通胀方面，澳洲当前处于温和通胀环境： 3月季度CPI同比2.4%，核心通胀（修正均值）2.9%，整体处于央行2-3%目标区间下端。劳动力市场依 然 ...

日本央行据悉下周可能维持 利率不变。 ...

Group 1 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.6% year-on-year in May, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 3%, slightly below the expected 3.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims remained stable at 248,000, the highest level since October of the previous year, indicating increasing difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, both below market expectations, with core CPI at its lowest level since March 2021 [1] Group 2 - Trump argues that a 2% rate cut could save the U.S. $600 billion annually, emphasizing the potential financial benefits of lowering interest rates [2] - Several high-ranking officials from the White House have echoed Trump's sentiments, suggesting that a rate cut could lead to significant government savings [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, faces political pressure to lower interest rates, although Powell emphasizes the independence of the Fed and the need to focus on economic outlook rather than political motivations [3] - Analysts note that while tariff impacts are currently minimal, risks of rising unemployment and inflation are increasing, with predictions of significant price increases in the coming months [3] - Former Treasury Secretary Yellen warns that Trump's tariff policies could lead to rising inflation and declining average household income, predicting an inflation rate of at least 3% for the year [3]

欧洲央行管委Vujcic：欧洲央行在利率方面处于非常有利的地位。 欧洲央行可以等待新的预测和数据，然后再采取下一步行动。 希望我们能在9月份之前有关税方面更明确的信息。 不知道美国的关税是（导致）通货紧缩还是通货膨胀。 不稳定的美国政策正推动投资者转向欧元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on June 10, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and chemical futures, and gives resistance and support levels [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided. For the whole of June 2025, they are also expected to have a generally strong - oscillating trend [2][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with corresponding resistance and support levels [3][39]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold futures AU2508 are expected to oscillate and consolidate on June 10, 2025, while silver futures AG2508 are likely to oscillate strongly and may hit a new high. For June 2025, gold futures are expected to have a wide - range strong - oscillating trend, and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly and break through key resistance levels [3][45][50]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper (CU2507), aluminum (AL2507) futures are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, while alumina (AO2509), zinc (ZN2507), nickel (NI2507), rebar (RB2510), hot - rolled coil (HC2510), iron ore (I2509) futures are likely to oscillate weakly. Different resistance and support levels are given for each [3][4][5]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures SC2507 are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels. For June 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range strong - oscillating trend [5][95]. - **Chemical Futures**: PTA (TA509) futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate on June 10, 2025, while PVC (V2509), methanol (MA509), and natural rubber (RU2509) futures are likely to oscillate weakly, with corresponding resistance and support levels [7][101][103]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and continued on June 10 [8]. - **Domestic Policies**: The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion on improving people's livelihood, and the State Council carried out a special study on promoting the integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation [8][9]. - **Economic Data**: In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and PPI was still at a low level. In the first five months, China's total import and export value increased by 2.5% year - on - year, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 3.8% [8][9]. - **International News**: The US Senate Republicans plan to propose a revised tax and healthcare bill, the US may hit the debt ceiling between mid - August and late September, and consumer inflation expectations in the US decreased in May [10]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **International Futures Market**: On June 9, international precious metals futures closed mixed, and international oil prices strengthened. The first recycled metal futures option, cast aluminum alloy, was listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on June 10 [12]. - **Exchange - Rate Information**: Hong Kong will maintain the linked exchange rate system, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on June 9. The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies generally rose [12][13][14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 9, IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 all showed a trend of opening higher, rising and then falling back, with different degrees of increase. The A - share market oscillated and rebounded, and the Hong Kong stock market was strong [14][15][16][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 9, the ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 both showed a trend of opening higher, rising and then falling back, with different degrees of increase. The central bank carried out 1738 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 1738 billion yuan [36][41]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: On June 9, gold futures AU2508 fell, while silver futures AG2508 rose and hit a new high [45][50]. - **Base Metals Futures**: On June 9, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures showed different trends of rise and fall [54][59][63][68][71][77][80][83]. - **Energy Futures**: On June 9, crude oil futures SC2507 rose [95]. - **Chemical Futures**: On June 9, PTA, PVC, methanol, and natural rubber futures showed different trends of rise and fall [101][103][105][108].

海外市场周报 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025年06月09日 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号: S0120523080002 邮箱:xuewei@tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号:S0120523070007 邮箱:tansy@tebon.com.cn 投资要点: ● 上周全球股市涨多跌少。韩国综合指数领涨全球主要市场。美股三大指数集体上 涨,纳指、标普 500和道指涨跌幅分别为+2.2%、+1.5%和+1.2%;欧洲市场三大 主要指数集体上涨;亚太地区涨多跌少,仅越南 VN30和日经 225 指数回调。 | 会议,有望带来好消息。特朗普在国内遭遇马斯克冲击、海外对日对欧谈判踌躇难 | | --- | | 进的背景下,做出一些让步与妥协来寻求共识的诉求预计将有所加强。 | | ● 策略应对:布局风偏走高,警惕波动加剧。在全球市场有望迎来中美首轮磋商利好 | | 的背景下,布局风险偏好走高的思路值得关注,但同时也应警惕可能的波动加剧带 | | 来的潜在风险。从大类资产角度看,权益类是最优选择,特别是中美双方的权益市 | | 场，受可能利好的推动最强,而固收类与商品类则相对左侧,美债布局机会佳,金 ...

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance last week, with the South Korean Composite Index leading gains among major markets[3] - The US stock indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones increasing by +2.2%, +1.5%, and +1.2% respectively[3] - European markets also saw collective gains, while the Asia-Pacific region had mixed results, with only Vietnam's VN30 and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices experiencing pullbacks[3] Employment Data - The US added 139,000 jobs in May, with an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months[3] - This job growth was better than market expectations but below the 12-month average increase of 149,000 jobs per month[3] - The ADP report indicated only 37,000 new jobs were created, significantly lower than the revised 60,000 from April and the market forecast of 110,000[3] Legislative Developments - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed the House with a narrow margin, raising concerns over increasing fiscal deficits in the US[3] - Elon Musk criticized the bill, leading to a public fallout with former President Trump, which caused significant volatility in Tesla's stock price[3] US-China Trade Talks - The first meeting of the US-China economic consultation mechanism is scheduled from June 8 to June 13, potentially improving market risk appetite[3] - The previous high-level talks in Geneva have set a foundation for deeper negotiations, with expectations for positive outcomes[3] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on equities, particularly in the US and China, as they are likely to benefit from potential positive news from trade talks[3] - Caution is advised regarding increased volatility, with fixed income and commodities being less favorable in the current environment[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflation rebounds in overseas markets, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[3]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-9） | | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 万吨至 | | | | 态势，需求端铁水产量环比回落 0.1 241.8 万吨，连续四周下行， | | | | | | 基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水 | | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹抛空 | 仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁 | | | | | | 关税至 50%，资金和情绪端表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消化反应以及 | | | | | | 减产的推进程度，短期受煤焦带动呈现反弹走势，策略上，前期空单建议 | | | | | | 继续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情加仓。 | | | | | | 煤焦：部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产，但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，52 ...

EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为99.9% 金十数据6月9日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为99.9%，降息25个基点的概率为0.1%。美联储7月维 持利率不变的概率为83.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为16.5%。 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 0.0% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 0.0% | 8.6% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 0.0% | 16.5% | 51.2% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 99.9% | 83.4% | 40.2% | | 4.50%-4.75% | 0.1% | | | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ...