港股收盘，恒指收跌1.99%，科指收跌2.42%，海天味业(03288.HK)上市首日涨0.55%，新消费概念股持 续回调，老铺黄金(06181.HK)跌6.4%，古茗(01364.HK)、泡泡玛特(09992.HK)跌超5%。 ...

商贸零售行业2025年度中期投资策略 维稳、谋变，重视新消费 解慧新 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 2025年6月19日 * 1 01 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 目录 02 医美 03 黄金珠宝 00 零售行业总览 04 商超百货 05 零售板块投资建议 06 风险提示 01 美妆 C O N T E N T S 零售行业总览——细分板块逻辑梳理 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 2 • 美护：25年1-5月，美容护理板块整体表现强劲。美护赛道悦己属性强，对消费者新需求变化敏感度高，逐步成为新消费的主力赛道。25年下半 年重点聚焦三条投资主线：①产品势能强劲、数据高增；②经营情况改善；③龙头大而全的企业。推荐巨子生物、毛戈平、上美股份、珀莱雅、 丸美生物、润本股份。 • 医美：胶原蛋白赛道景气度高且成长性强；行业需求整体承压情况下对渠道管理能力以及医美产品的运营能力提出更高要求，产品管线的持续扩 充以及平台化运营能力对新一轮投资周期至关重要；建议关注新材料以及新产品管线催化，推荐锦波生物、爱美客。 • 黄金珠宝：近年来，消费者对"非必要支出"更加谨慎，黄金因其卓 ...

2025.06. 19 本文字数：705，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 一财资讯 6月19日，A股三大指数集体回调，截至收盘，沪指跌0.79%，深成指跌1.21%，创业板指跌 1.36%。 | 序号 代码 | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 000001 上证指数 | | 3362.11c -26.70 -0.79% | | 2 | 399001 深证成指 | | 10051.97c -123.62 -1.21% | | 3 | 899050 北证50 | 1365.79c | -27.65 -1.98% | | 4 | 881001 万得全A | | 5103.13c -62.09 -1.20% | | 5 | 000688 科创50 | 962.94c | -5.24 -0.54% | | 6 | 399006 创业板指 | 2026.82c -27.91 -1.36% | | 个股跌多涨少，Wind数据显示，全市场超4600只个股下跌。 盘面上看，稳定币、可控核聚变、离境退税、新消费、创新药、稀土永磁题材走低，油气开采及服 务、影视院线等少数 ...

Group 1: Second-Hand Luxury Market - The second-hand luxury goods market is expanding into county-level cities, reflecting an increase in consumer spending power in these areas. During the Spring Festival, order volume for second-hand luxury items in fifth-tier cities grew by 33%, while third and fourth-tier cities also saw double-digit growth [1] - Challenges for second-hand luxury stores in county areas include limited style variety, inventory backlog, and profit compression, necessitating stable sourcing and authentication capabilities [1] - The second-hand luxury industry is shifting from high profits to refined operations, with competition expected to concentrate among financially strong major players or local small shops [1] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - New consumption brands are rapidly emerging by targeting lower-tier markets and utilizing efficient channels, disrupting traditional consumer perceptions in first and second-tier cities [2] - Generation Z consumers prioritize emotional value, cost-effectiveness, and information transparency, driving a comprehensive restructuring of products, brands, and channels [2] - The lower-tier market shows strong consumption potential, becoming a new growth engine, reflecting profound changes in demand-side consumption [2] Group 3: Emotional Value in Luxury Consumption - A report indicates that happiness dominates luxury consumption trends in China, with brands needing to provide enjoyable and relaxed experiences while emphasizing equality and respect [4] - The value of luxury goods is shifting towards emotional, cultural, and personal expression, with consumers seeking resonance with ideal personas [4] - Changes in product roles are evident, with bags focusing on practicality and jewelry serving as emotional tokens, highlighting the need for brands to create high-level emotional connections [4] Group 4: Gold Consumption and IP Collaboration - The gold consumption market in China is experiencing turbulence, with rising gold prices but weak demand, leading to a decline in jewelry consumption and an increase in investment gold bars [5] - Brands are exploring the "Golden Valley" model, combining IP collaborations with the value retention of gold to shift consumer perception from "family assets" to "personal expression" [5] - Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang are partnering with anime IPs to achieve product premiumization, while future strategies must balance value retention with emotional needs [5] Group 5: Fast Fashion Challenges - The fast fashion industry faces challenges due to the end of the U.S. tax exemption policy for small packages, significantly impacting the "small order quick response" model represented by Shein [10] - New tariffs increase costs and extend customs clearance times, undermining the rapid response advantage of these businesses [10] - While industry scale may decline in the short term, the "small order quick response" model remains a long-term development direction, requiring companies to innovate technologically and commercially [10] Group 6: Silver Economy in Luxury Brands - Luxury brands are targeting the "silver economy," with China's silver economy scale reaching 7 trillion yuan, indicating significant future potential [11] - Brands are developing practical products and age-appropriate experiences, such as lightweight handbags and cultural scene enhancements, to cater to this demographic [11] - Silver consumers are rational and loyal, focusing on self-expression and brand connotation, prompting brands to reinforce nostalgic emotions through classic revivals and workshops [11] Group 7: Brand Dynamics - The Chinese menswear brand Li Ning has opened its first overseas store in Malaysia, marking a key step in its internationalization strategy [12] - The opening aligns with Li Ning's multi-brand and international strategy, with projected revenue of 3.65 billion yuan in 2024 and a total of 2,773 stores [12] - Semir's children's clothing brand Balabala is facing challenges in a competitive market, with a decline in revenue and net profit, necessitating supply chain optimization and product enhancement [13]

Core Insights - The reasons for multinational companies to invest in China have shifted from cost advantages to innovation and efficiency in the supply chain [1][2] - China is increasingly recognized for its capabilities in research and development, as well as its talent pool, particularly in emerging industries like electric vehicles and drones [2] Investment Trends - Multinational companies are now focusing on China's industrial chain efficiency and innovation capabilities, moving away from traditional factors like labor and land costs [2] - The automotive sector, particularly in electric vehicles, has seen significant foreign investment, with companies establishing manufacturing bases in cities like Hefei and Jiaxing [2] New Consumer Opportunities - The rise of "new consumption" trends in China is creating opportunities for global retailers, with a shift towards experiential and personalized services [3] - The retail market is seeing a notable increase in service-oriented consumption, with 73% of retail inquiries related to new store openings or expansions, the highest since mid-last year [3][4] Commercial Real Estate Insights - The demand for commercial real estate, particularly retail and hospitality properties, is increasing as consumer spending rises [5] - Investors are advised to focus on core cities in major urban areas like the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area, as these regions show strong potential for commercial real estate investment [6] Future Outlook - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China are projected to approach 49 trillion yuan in 2024, solidifying its position as the world's second-largest consumer market [4] - There is an anticipated investment window in the next 6-12 months for certain asset classes, particularly in first and second-tier cities [6]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 2.02% to 23,231.48 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.38% to 5,090.33 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 2.12% to 8,412.32 points [1] - The Hong Kong consumer sector continued to decline, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) down nearly 2.5%, indicating a sustained low-point layout opportunity [1] - The State Council Information Office emphasized that consumption is a key driver of economic growth, and boosting consumption is crucial for responding to external environmental changes and enhancing residents' quality of life [1] Group 2 - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods (social retail) grew by 6.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations of 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1%, marking a new high for 2024 [2] - The strong performance in May was attributed to the early launch of e-commerce promotional activities and changes in holiday distribution, which led to a concentrated release of consumer demand [2] - Specific categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw retail growth rates increase by 14.2 and 13.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating significant structural improvement [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on June 19, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping nearly 2.5%, reflecting a broad sell-off in tech stocks, Chinese brokerage shares, innovative drug concepts, and new consumption stocks [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) followed the index's downward trend, with major holdings like Tongcheng Travel, Alibaba Health, JD Group, Sunny Optical Technology, and Trip.com seeing significant declines, while only a few companies like Huahong remained in the green [1] - Despite the current downturn in new consumption stocks, industry analysts from Industrial Securities believe that the long-term growth potential and structural investment opportunities in the sector remain strong, supported by industry dynamics, policies, and technological innovations [1] Group 2 - The valuation of the Hong Kong technology sector is currently at a historically low level, with the latest valuation (PETTM) of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) at 19.96 times, which is below 91% of the time since the index was launched on July 27, 2020 [1] - The recovery of the domestic economy, expectations for AI performance catalysts, and the influx of quality companies listing in Hong Kong are anticipated to lead to an increase in valuations in the second half of the year [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong consumption ETF (513230) encompasses e-commerce and new consumption sectors, which are relatively scarce compared to A-shares [4] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) includes core AI assets and features technology leaders that are also relatively rare in A-shares [4]

今日沪指跌0.86%，全市场超4600股下挫。A股在让人失望这件事情上从来没有让散户失望，下跌的数量也再次刷新最近下限，它还能跌多少家？ 这个位置，大家都情绪化了，在股市挣10%比在现实盈利100万元都难，因为长期盈利是一件很难的事情。年初很多人都挣利润了，目前大概率都回撤了。 不出意外，港股的新消费概念走低，A股的白酒连续几天没有跌了，周末都不看好白酒的情况下，这周反而跌幅最少了。 | 前前,都有所不 | AND THE | | | | 304178 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2614 11 11 | 12.11 | | | A3.28 | 1800 | | | | | WARRET CON | | 200 2 1 | 35 20 | 5.5481 | | | | Clear .. The N | -11 . 11 . 11 . | | A all " the till | and and | 28880 | | | | A 45 111 | | 11 - 17 | al lil al | | 159811 | | | ...

无需港股通，A股账户就能T+0买港股>> 港股午间收盘，恒生指数跌2.02%，恒生科技指数跌2.38%。新消费概念股下挫，毛戈平跌超7%，老铺 黄金、泡泡玛特跌超5%。 ...

2025.06. 19 作者 | 一财资讯 | ਵੰਮ | 涨713 | # 48 | 跌 4654 | A股成交额 | | 8059417 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | A股重要指数 | | é | | | | 名称 | | 最新 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3359.78 | -29.03 | -0.86% | | | | 深证成指 | | 0072.42 | -103.17 | -1.01% | | | | 北证50 | | 1379.67 | -13.77 | -0.99% | | | | 创业板指 | | 2032.19 | -22.54 | -1.10% | | 推荐阅读 稳定币题材高开低走，可控核聚变、军工、离境退税、减肥药、新消费、稀土永磁、黄金概念股纷纷 回调；固态电池、人形机器人概念股逆势走强。 工信部严查车企"说一套做一套" 中信建投投顾吕佳认为，近期上证指数在整数关口反复但成交量并未有效放大。目前行业为主的趋势 类个股表现出较强韧性，对稳定指数有较强帮助，板块轮动速度明显加快后，我们 ...