Core Viewpoint - The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024 and Trump's proposal for a Bitcoin reserve have transformed Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a mainstream recognized asset class, referred to as "digital gold" by the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bitcoin's Evolution and Market Positioning - The Trump administration is accelerating Bitcoin's transition from a retail-driven speculative tool to an institutionally recognized asset class, altering its hedging characteristics [2][4]. - The study examines Bitcoin's hedging properties compared to gold during different crisis periods, particularly focusing on the evolution of Bitcoin's hedging features in the Trump 2.0 era [5][6]. - Prior to Trump 2.0, Bitcoin and gold exhibited similar hedging characteristics primarily during mid-term crises, but this similarity has diminished in the Trump 2.0 period, with Bitcoin showing increased correlation with the market [6][21]. Group 2: Methodology and Data Analysis - The research utilizes frequency domain decomposition and quantile Granger causality tests to analyze Bitcoin's hedging properties over time, providing new empirical evidence on its behavior under different market conditions [6][12][13]. - Data from March 2015 to May 2025 was collected, focusing on the significant growth and stability of the cryptocurrency market post-2015, ensuring reliability in comparisons with traditional financial assets [12][13]. Group 3: Risk Transmission and Hedging Properties - The results indicate that Bitcoin has the lowest risk transmission levels among various assets, suggesting its potential as a diversification investment [19][20]. - In the Trump 2.0 era, the risk transmission structure has changed significantly, with an overall increase in sensitivity to policy and geopolitical shocks, indicating a shift towards institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market [21][22]. - Bitcoin's hedging properties are context-dependent, showing potential as a hedging asset during specific crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Silicon Valley Bank collapse [24][26]. Group 4: Implications for Investors and Policymakers - The findings suggest that Bitcoin is transitioning from a quasi-hedging asset to a high-risk growth asset, indicating that it may no longer be suitable for long-term hedging against traditional risk assets [31][34]. - For investors, it is crucial to recognize the dynamic changes in Bitcoin's hedging attributes and adjust portfolio allocations accordingly, especially in the context of increasing correlation with mainstream assets [34]. - Policymakers should enhance monitoring and regulation of the interconnectedness between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial markets, given the increased risk transmission observed in the Trump 2.0 era [23][34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the resilience of the non-ferrous metal sector, as evidenced by the performance of the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), which saw a price increase of 0.18% and a net subscription of 28.8 million units, reflecting strong investor confidence in the sector [1][3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by multiple factors, including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, enhanced monetary attributes, and improved domestic macro expectations, with institutions generally agreeing on the bullish outlook for the sector [3][4] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has reached a record size of 1.626 billion yuan as of January 19, indicating strong market interest and positioning it as the largest ETF tracking the non-ferrous metal index [3][4] Group 2 - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector have shown substantial gains, with Hunan Silver, Baiyin Nonferrous, and Mingtai Aluminum hitting the daily limit, while Nanshan Aluminum and Shanjin International also reported significant increases [4] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of industries, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better capture of the sector's beta performance across different economic cycles [6]

Core Viewpoint - The silver futures market is experiencing a significant surge, with the main contract reaching a peak of 23,568.00 yuan, reflecting a 4.09% increase [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main silver futures contract reported a rise of over 4%, indicating strong market performance [2] - As of the latest report, the main silver futures contract is priced at 23,167.00 yuan [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures predicts that precious metals will maintain a strong performance in the short term due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions [2] - Hualian Futures expects the medium to long-term trend of silver to remain strong, driven by rising market demand and supply constraints [3] - Zhonghui Futures maintains a long-term bullish outlook on silver, emphasizing the ongoing supply-demand gap and favorable macroeconomic conditions [3] Group 3: Market Drivers - The geopolitical situation regarding Greenland has heightened market risk, prompting investors to seek refuge in precious metals like silver [2] - The silver market is facing a significant supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, while demand is bolstered by sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers [3] - Continuous inflows into global silver ETFs and declining COMEX inventories have resulted in historically low deliverable silver stocks [3]

【最新伦敦银行情解析】 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普上周六表示，他将从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、荷兰、 芬兰和英国的商品加征10%的进口关税，直到美国获准购买格陵兰岛。 据报道，法国总统埃马纽埃尔.马克龙要求欧盟启动其"交易核武器"。这一措施可能会阻止美国进入欧 盟市场，或实施出口管制，这是更广泛潜在反制措施清单中的一部分。特朗普威胁对反对他提议收购格 陵兰岛的八个欧洲国家征收新关税，可能会提振传统避险资产，从而利好白银价格。 另一方面，预计美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)将在1月的货币政策会议上维持利率不变。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场已将美联储本月晚些时候降息的可能性定为近5%。美联储能够维持较高利率的观 点通常会提振美元(USD)，并对非收益资产如银价施加压力。 今日周二(1月20日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于94.16一线上方，今日开盘于94.39美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报94.45美元/盎司，下跌0.24%，最高触及94.72美元/盎司，最低下探92.56美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 白银兼具贵金属与工业属性，宏观不确定性升温时，避险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in spot gold prices, surpassing $4,700, is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Europe, raising concerns about a potential new trade war [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid fears of geopolitical instability [1]. - Following the new high, gold prices have stabilized at elevated levels, indicating strong market support [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, multiple factors including policy, capital flow, and market sentiment will continue to influence gold prices [1]. - Galaxy Futures anticipates that gold, as a core safe-haven asset, will demonstrate more stable performance compared to silver [1].

周二(1月20日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格持续走涨，目前交投于4698.07美元/盎司附近，因避险情绪持续 升温，且美元指数延续跌势刷新逾一周低点，现货黄金午后持续走高，在EMA50上方的动态支撑持续 下，强化了主看涨趋势的稳定和短期主导地位，仍有上涨空间。 若这种信心的逐渐侵蚀在未来数个交易日内得到巩固，市场可能转向更具风险规避倾向的环境，从而推 高对避险资产的需求。在此情境下，黄金作为资本保值工具的重要性将凸显，短期内或持续维持买盘压 力。 过去数月，黄金始终维持着稳健的看涨结构，表现为高点与低点不断上移，屡次持续推动价格创下历史 新高。目前尚未出现明确的技术信号预示趋势反转，但价格接近关键心理关口(4700美元)时，可能在涨 势重启前进入盘整阶段或技术性回调。 金价昨日高开高走收涨，稳于短期均线上方，但目前触及趋势线压力附近，有遇阻回调的风险，不过， 鉴于看涨前景良好，如有回撤，下方5/10日均线等支撑，仍是触及看涨的支撑位置。并等待趋势线压力 的突破。 只要现货黄金价格维持在每盎司4650美元的关键支撑位上方，其后续上行目标区间仍指向每盎司4718美 元至4749美元。通道技术与波浪投影分析共同指向这一 ...

Group 1 - The threat of tariffs on Greenland by the U.S. has weakened demand for U.S. assets and heightened concerns about Washington's long-term fiscal situation, leading to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries [1] - U.S. Treasury yields for 10-year and 30-year bonds rose by at least 3 basis points during Asian trading hours, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical tensions [1] - Japanese government bonds have also seen a decline, with the 40-year bond yield reaching 4%, the highest since its issuance in 2007, indicating rising interest rates in Japan [1] Group 2 - Concerns about the long-term trajectory of global sovereign interest rates persist, with speculation about the potential appointment of Rick Riedel as the next Federal Reserve Chair adding to the uncertainty [2] - European countries hold trillions of dollars in U.S. bonds and stocks, raising speculation that they may sell these assets in response to renewed tariff conflicts, which could increase borrowing costs and negatively impact the stock market [2] - The rising yields in Japan may prompt Japanese investors to repatriate funds from U.S. Treasuries, further pushing up U.S. Treasury yields [2] Group 3 - The high level of Japanese government bond yields makes investing in U.S. Treasuries less attractive after accounting for currency hedging costs, potentially leading to a shift of funds back to Japan for better net yields [3]

银价格，又爆了！ 昨天，随着国际金价和银价一路飙升并双双再度创下历史新高，贵金属再次成为市场的焦点。 那么，本轮贵金属"牛市"背后的深层逻辑是什么？2026年是"盛宴的尾声"还是新周期的起点呢？下面我们就一起来看看。 去年以来，贵金属市场可以说是"牛气冲天"——黄金领涨，白银后来居上，上演了一场"接力赛"。 2025年，纽约期金和伦敦金现货累计上涨超70%，沪金期货上涨近65%；纽约期银及伦敦银现货累计上涨超170%，沪银期货上涨超155%。 而今年开年以来，金银价格的走势也持续强劲。 昨天（1月19日），国际黄金期货价格一度飙升至每盎司4698美元的历史最高点，现货黄金也站上4690美元。 02宽松货币政策的催化 比黄金更为耀眼的是白银的涨幅。伦敦现货白银价格一举突破每盎司94美元，自今年开年以来已累计飙升31%，创下自1983年以来最强劲的新年开局。 | < 白 | | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | 93,131 | | 昨结 | 9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Aluminum, cotton [39][189] - **Negative Outlook**: PX, PTA, rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, soda ash, PVC, sugar, live pigs [84][86][94][102][159][165] - **Neutral Outlook**: Zinc, lead, tin, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal, steam coal, logs, MEG, synthetic rubber, methanol, urea, styrene, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, pure benzene, palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, eggs, peanuts [29][31][36][44][50][53][56][57][62][67][71][77][84][92][115][119][120][130][137][155][157][165][172][175][178][193][201] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Global Market**: Geopolitical conflicts led by Trump have increased short - term volatility in overseas markets, with the EU considering counter - measures. Meanwhile, China's GDP data has stabilized global confidence in China, and the RMB has strengthened. Pre - holiday domestic stability and overseas volatility intensification are normal, and investors should pay attention to the uncertainty risks caused by irrational fluctuations under the linkage of various markets [8]. - **Commodity Markets** - **Caustic Soda**: High inventory and weak demand lead to downward price pressure in the near term, but long - term contracts may face cost increases and supply cuts [11][100]. - **Natural Rubber**: Overseas raw material prices are falling, and domestic inventory accumulation continues, with short - term market trends remaining weak [12]. - **Propylene**: Spot driving force is weakening, and the market is mainly affected by cost and downstream factors [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased risk - aversion sentiment, driving up the prices of gold and silver [8]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in a range - bound pattern [43][44]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: LME spot prices are strengthening, and the price is firm. Supply - side projects and geopolitical factors have an impact [24]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound pattern [27]. - **Lead**: Reduced overseas inventory supports the price [30]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound pattern [33]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, while alumina continues to decline [38]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Indonesian policies cause fluctuations, and nickel prices have a wide - range oscillatory pattern [46]. 3.1.3 Other Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: Downstream purchases have cooled, and the price is in a high - level oscillatory pattern [51]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Upstream production cuts have led to a rebound in the market [54]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy - **Coal**: The market sentiment for steam coal is weak, and the price is in a short - term weak adjustment [72]. - **LPG**: The downward driving force is gradually being realized [127]. - **Fuel Oil**: It has a narrow - range oscillatory pattern, and short - term fluctuations are narrowing [137]. 3.2.2 Chemicals - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX has a weak cost and a short - term oscillatory pattern; PTA focuses on narrowing processing fees; MEG has limited downward space [78]. - **Rubber**: It is in a weak oscillatory pattern [86]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has a short - term weak operation [90]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE has increased standard product production and weakening spot trading; PP has a strong cost support but weak demand [93][95]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is under pressure in the short term [98]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a weak oscillatory pattern [103]. - **Glass**: The raw sheet price is stable [108]. - **Methanol**: It is in an oscillatory operation [111]. - **Urea**: It is in an oscillatory consolidation [116]. - **Styrene**: It has a short - term oscillatory pattern [120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change [122]. - **PVC**: It has a weak oscillatory pattern [134]. 3.3 Agricultural Products 3.3.1 Grains - **Corn**: The price has corrected [176]. 3.3.2 Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil has limited short - term negatives, and soybean oil has limited rebound height [167]. 3.3.3 Others - **Sugar**: It is in a low - level consolidation [179]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment [185]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [192]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has weakened, and the peak - season expectation has decreased [195]. - **Peanuts**: It is in an oscillatory operation [199]. 3.4 Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in a temporary oscillatory pattern. Factors such as capacity, geopolitics, and demand affect the market [139].

【环球网财经综合报道】1月19日，COMEX黄金期货收涨1.77%报4676.7美元/盎司，盘中一度升至4690美元，现货黄 金价格也一度触及4036.60欧元；COMEX白银期货收涨6.49%报94.28美元/盎司。 报道还提到，专家预测，到2026年，黄金价格可能远超5000美元，白银达到100美元。除了当前的地缘政治紧张局 势，美国的外交政策、全球去美元化以及华盛顿和欧元区的毁灭性债务政策，都会对黄金价格产生推动作用。白银作 为重要的工业金属，对人工智能、机器人技术和能源应用都有需求，同样受到影响。 今日俄罗斯发文称，美国对欧盟的最新关税威胁引发金融市场动荡，高达25%的税率威胁对投资者的风险承受力造成 严重影响，因此，黄金和白银等避险资产需求大增，而比特币和美国股市等风险较高的资产则面临压力。 在此背景下，越来越多'纸黄金'和'纸白银'交易涌现出来，而实际的实物黄金和银条、硬币供应跟不上需求。买家希望 在家就能实物持有这些资产，导致很多金属交易商订单暴涨或面临供应短缺。 ...