如何看待反内卷进程？ 当前光伏投资机会展望 20250710 摘要 Q&A 光伏行业目前的供给侧改革进展如何？ 多晶硅行业通过 CPI 年度大会及月度例会，对企业生产配额进行管控， 旨在恢复产业链报价并降低开工率，类似于 OPEC 模式，通过行政手段 干预市场供需关系。 协鑫科技提出产能并购整合方案，通过金融机构支持，头部公司联合并 购低效产能，以实现产能出清和可控，该方案已获政府确认并推进。 近期多晶硅价格显著上涨，n 型居民料报价从 33.5 元/公斤上涨至 40 元 /公斤，预计本周内最高报价可能达到 45 元/公斤，安泰科对报价的严格 要求进一步支撑价格上涨趋势。 光伏需求总体稳定，地面电站需求受集中式项目企稳支撑，工商业分布 式项目自发自用未受政策影响，海外需求预计自 7 月起环比复苏，出口 退税取消政策亦有助推作用。 2025 年 7 月全行业多晶硅排产为 10.4 万吨，环比小幅上升，主要由于 云南地区丰水期产能复产，预计八九月份西南、西北地区部分产能将持 续复产。 哪些光伏标的值得关注？ 多晶硅价格未来几个月的走势如何？ 多晶硅价格预计将继续上涨。根据 SMM 官方报价，上周 n 型居民料报价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes that driving price recovery in the photovoltaic (PV) industry is an effective measure and an important first step towards achieving "anti-involution" in the sector [1][6] Price Recovery and Market Dynamics - A reasonable recovery in the industry chain prices is seen as a key method for "anti-involution" and a prerequisite for supply-side reform [2] - The current "anti-involution" initiative aims to address low-price disorderly competition among companies, with market regulation being a direct demand and supply-side reform as a medium to long-term goal [2] - Recent price increases in silicon materials have reached approximately 45,000 yuan per ton, marking a 25% increase, while N-type materials have seen a 6%-7% rise in average transaction prices [2][3] Impact on Supply Chain and Competition - The price increases are expected to have a cascading effect down the supply chain, with N-type silicon wafer prices rising by 8%-12% due to upstream silicon material price adjustments [2] - The differentiation in pricing among manufacturers is anticipated, with lower-cost producers gaining market advantages while higher-cost firms may face inventory buildup and financial strain [3] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the immediate effects of price recovery, achieving the exit of outdated production capacity and restructuring the supply side will not be a quick process [4] - The industry is currently experiencing a slowdown in demand growth, particularly after a recent surge in installations, which may limit the tolerance for price increases in the supply chain [4] - A substantial improvement in market supply-demand relationships is necessary for further price recovery in the industry chain [4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on leading companies within the PV main industry chain that possess long-term competitiveness and the potential for price and volume recovery as the industry undergoes capacity reduction [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong, which aims to create a robust regulatory framework for stablecoins and digital assets, enhancing financial stability [6][7] - The report discusses the advancements in the AI computing sector, particularly the deployment of CoreWeave's GB300 systems, which are expected to significantly enhance AI processing capabilities [9][10] - The report emphasizes the progress in the biopharmaceutical sector, particularly the promising results from clinical trials of PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies for various cancers, indicating a strong potential for market growth [12][14] - The report notes the financial turnaround of Aisuke Co., which achieved profitability in Q2 2025, driven by strong sales of its ABC components and improved operational efficiency [16][17] - The report tracks the pricing trends in the photovoltaic industry, indicating structural price declines in battery cells and modules, while highlighting the competitive advantages of Aisuke's ABC technology [19][20][21] Industry Commentary - The banking sector is undergoing regulatory changes with the introduction of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong, which is expected to foster a healthier digital asset ecosystem [6] - The communication industry is witnessing significant developments with CoreWeave's deployment of AI computing systems, which is anticipated to drive capital expenditure and investment opportunities [9][10] - The biopharmaceutical industry is experiencing advancements in cancer treatment, particularly with the PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies showing promising clinical trial results [12][14] - The renewable energy sector, particularly solar energy, is facing pricing pressures, but companies like Aisuke are leveraging innovative technologies to maintain competitive advantages [19][20][21] Company Analysis - Aisuke Co. has reported a significant turnaround in its financial performance, achieving profitability in Q2 2025, attributed to strong demand for its ABC components and improved operational efficiencies [16][17] - The report indicates that Aisuke's ABC technology is recognized as a leading solution in the photovoltaic industry, with continuous improvements in efficiency and market share [20][21] - The report suggests that Aisuke's strategic focus on high-value markets and operational efficiency will position it favorably for future growth in a competitive landscape [16][17]

Core Insights - The photovoltaic power stations in Tianzhu County, Gansu Province, are contributing significantly to local economic development and poverty alleviation efforts [1][2] - The county has established 11 photovoltaic assistance stations, generating an average annual revenue of over 23 million yuan for 91 poverty alleviation villages [1][2] - The local government is actively supervising the distribution and use of photovoltaic project revenue to ensure financial integrity and maximize benefits [2] Group 1 - The photovoltaic power stations have become a unique landscape and a vital source of green energy in Tianzhu County [1] - The county's efforts in building photovoltaic assistance stations are aimed at enhancing collective economic strength in impoverished villages [1][3] - The local government has implemented strict supervision measures, discovering and rectifying 7 issues related to the management of photovoltaic project funds [2] Group 2 - The county's disciplinary inspection and supervision commission has taken action against improper fund management, resulting in disciplinary actions against 3 individuals [2] - Some administrative villages have been found to have low expenditure rates for photovoltaic assistance funds, indicating underutilization of resources [2] - The county is working to improve the management of photovoltaic assistance funds and ensure proper allocation and usage through a collaborative mechanism with the agricultural department [2]

Group 1: Credit Bond ETF Impact - The report highlights the significant acceleration in the growth of credit bond ETFs since their issuance in January 2025, particularly after mid-May, with a notable upward trend in scale [2] - On June 6, eight benchmark credit bond ETFs were successfully included in the range of general pledged repo collateral, enhancing their appeal to institutional investors such as banks, insurance companies, and funds [2] - The report focuses on two key phases: the initial building period and the rapid growth period, noting that during the building period, the overall interest rates were rising, but the sample bonds' increase was lower than that of comparable corporate bonds [2] Group 2: HeSai (HSAI.O) Overview - HeSai, established in 2014, specializes in the research and manufacturing of LiDAR technology, with a global leading shipment volume and a strong patent portfolio [3] - The report projects that the global market for vehicle-mounted LiDAR could reach 50 billion RMB by 2030, while the market for robotic LiDAR is expected to reach 10 billion RMB in the same timeframe [3] - HeSai is expected to achieve total revenues of 3.15 billion, 4.57 billion, and 6.06 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 52%, 45%, and 33% respectively [4] Group 3: Daikin Heavy Industries (002487.SZ) Performance - Daikin Heavy Industries is projected to exceed expectations in its performance due to high shipment growth and increased foreign exchange gains, with a favorable outlook for European offshore wind orders [4] - The company is expected to see its net profit attributable to shareholders reach 1.069 billion, 1.461 billion, and 1.893 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 20.1, 14.7, and 11.3 times [4] - The establishment of a floating center and active participation in global tenders are anticipated to enhance market share and net profit per pile [4]

Group 1 - The company estimates the Levered Beta for Inner Mongolia Haoan Energy Technology Co., Ltd. to be 1.4592 based on its capital structure ratio [1] - The expected equity return rate calculated using the CAPM formula is 12.09%, with a risk-free rate of 1.68%, a market risk premium of 5.76%, and a specific risk of 2% [2][30] - The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for Inner Mongolia Haoan Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is determined to be 9.49% [3] Group 2 - The recoverable amount of the long-term asset group for Inner Mongolia Haoan Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is assessed to be 51,712.67 million yuan as of December 31, 2024 [6] - The impairment test indicates that the carrying amount of the long-term asset group is 66,106.15 million yuan, with the recoverable amount being higher than the present value of future cash flows [6][33] Group 3 - The company is currently constructing a 5,000-ton intelligent silicon purification recycling project, which has faced challenges due to substandard trial production results and a downturn in the photovoltaic industry [7][10] - The project aims to reduce the absolute consumption of polysilicon raw materials and achieve a green circular economy by recycling silicon waste [11] Group 4 - The company plans to continue the construction of a 10,000-ton intelligent silicon purification recycling project, which aligns with its strategic goal of cost reduction across the industry chain [34] - The second-generation purification furnace has been developed, showing significant improvements in energy consumption and production efficiency compared to the first generation [35] Group 5 - The company has signed agreements for multiple projects, including a 5GW N-type high-efficiency battery chip production base and a 16GW N-type high-efficiency single crystal silicon rod project, with significant investments planned [37][39] - The company is currently facing challenges in project execution due to market conditions and is in discussions with local governments regarding project adjustments [40] Group 6 - The company has made substantial prepayments for raw materials and services, which are essential for its operational needs, and these prepayments are aligned with industry practices [44][50] - The company is under audit scrutiny regarding its prepayment practices and the potential for funds to flow to related parties, with ongoing evaluations to ensure compliance with accounting standards [56][57] Group 7 - The investment in Jiangxi Donglin Investment Co., Ltd. is aimed at securing a stable supply chain for silicon materials, which is critical for the company's production of silicon rods and wafers [61][63] - The collaboration with Jiangxi Donglin is expected to enhance operational efficiency and provide strategic support for the company's long-term development in the photovoltaic industry [64]

来源：深圳平湖实验室 通过进一步进行激光剥离的机理研究和优化激光剥离的工艺参数，2025年6月实现激光剥离的单片总损 耗≤75μm，单片切割时间20min，单片成本降低约26%，单台设备切割时间从60分钟/片缩短至20分钟/ 片，结合智能化产线，产能提升3倍，为规模化生产奠定基础。并且已完成三批次的小批量验证，良率 100%。 随着新能源汽车、光伏等领域对碳化硅需求激增，国产激光剥离技术的成熟将为产业链自主化注入强劲 动力。 | 参数指标 | Disco_6inch | Infineon_6inch | 深圳平湖实验室 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 6inch | 8inch | | 单片总损耗 (um) | ~100 | ~80 | 575 | ૬૪૨ | | 切割时间(min) | -20 | 30 | ≤20 | $30 | 近日，国家第三代半导体技术创新中心深圳平台（深圳平湖实验室）宣布在碳化硅衬底加工领域取得里 程碑式进展。该团队自主研发的全自动化激光剥离系统，成功将碳化硅衬底单片切割损耗从传统工艺的 280-300微米降至75微米以下，单片 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price increase trend in the photovoltaic industry chain is beginning to transmit downstream after the rise in polysilicon prices, indicating a potential rebound in prices across various segments of the industry chain [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - Recent reports indicate that multiple polysilicon companies have started adjusting their product prices, showing a strong determination to maintain price levels [1]. - From July 3 to July 9, the average price of silicon wafers has slightly increased due to the rising expectations of polysilicon prices [1]. - The price adjustments in the polysilicon segment are expected to lead to a wave of price rebounds across the industry chain, although the overall recovery of the industry will depend on specific capacity reduction situations [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The downstream crystal pulling segment is facing a decision on whether to continue observing the market or accept slight price increases to replenish inventory [1]. - As the price of polysilicon rises, leading silicon wafer manufacturers have begun to raise prices, with other specialized manufacturers following suit [1]. - The atmosphere for silicon wafer price increases is strengthening, supported by healthy inventory levels, cash cost support, and policy guidance [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the overall terminal demand not showing significant recovery, the recent price increases in the polysilicon segment have gradually transmitted to the silicon wafer segment, providing initial support for the market [2]. - The prices of polysilicon and silicon wafers are currently at a bottom range, and future prices are expected to gradually rise and maintain within a certain range [2]. - The industry is anticipated to gradually recover and form a healthy competitive landscape due to the large-scale elimination of backward production capacity in the photovoltaic sector [2].

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of weekly announcements from Sunday to Thursday, which include significant stock market updates such as suspensions, investments, acquisitions, and performance reports, helping investors identify potential investment hotspots and avoid black swan events [1] - A company is in the customer validation phase for its 1.6T optical module using AWG chips and components, indicating progress in the optical module and data center sectors [1] - Another company has achieved small batch sales of its phenolic resin products for photoresist and is in the pilot testing stage for its sulfide solid electrolyte project, showcasing advancements in photoresist and solid-state battery technologies [1] Group 2 - A humanoid robot company, in collaboration with Nvidia, is expected to see its net profit double year-on-year in the first half of the year, with multiple AI computing modules in development, reflecting growth in AI and robotics sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Shijia Photonics plans to acquire an 82.381% stake in Dongguan Fokexima Communication Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, aiming to enhance its production capabilities in optical components and strengthen its market position in the optical communication sector [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Shijia Photonics will acquire the stake from five parties, including Guangdian Fund and Liu Xiaoming, and the company's stock will resume trading on July 11 [1]. - Fokexima specializes in the research, production, and sales of MPO components, which are essential for high-speed data transmission in data centers [1][2]. Group 2: Market Context - The optical device market is experiencing rapid growth due to increasing demand driven by advancements in cloud computing, big data, IoT, and AI technologies [1]. - Fokexima has launched several low-loss MT connectors and has developed a range of MT connector products, achieving mass production and gaining recognition from major market clients [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Shijia Photonics reported a revenue of 1.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.40%, and a net profit of 64.93 million yuan, up 236.57% [3]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 436 million yuan, reflecting a 120.6% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 93.19 million yuan, which is a 1003.8% increase [3].