Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the mid-term [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing continued pressure, with a focus on quality over speed in growth. The recovery in demand is showing signs of being uneven, leading companies to prioritize prudent growth strategies [12][18]. - The high-end liquor segment is seeing stable pricing control, while the mid-range segment is under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different price tiers [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Quality Focus - The liquor sector's revenue for FY 2024 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.2%. For Q1 2025, revenue growth slowed to 2.3% and net profit to 2.6% [12][18]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly in the mid to low-end segments, while high-end banquet consumption is showing signs of recovery from a low base [12][18]. 2. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth is gradually bottoming out, with increasing differentiation among companies. The high-end segment remains relatively stable, while the mid-range segment faces significant challenges [18][27]. - The report highlights that many liquor companies are tightening control over distributors and focusing on core products to drive sales [18][27]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in FY 2024 was 82.93%, a slight increase from the previous year. However, many companies are facing pressure on their gross margins due to pricing and product mix challenges [2][3]. - Sales and management expense ratios have seen slight increases, indicating a cautious approach to spending amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading liquor companies are expected to show resilient growth, supported by effective channel management and digital tracking strategies. Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for their solid performance and valuation safety margins [3][12].

截至4月30日，21家白酒上市企业的2024年年报悉数发布，各酒企的营收、净利、经营目标等数据成为 行业关注的焦点。业绩表现背后，财报中还藏着更大的秘密。南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者 梳理发现，2024年多家白酒上市公司的经销商数量在减少，其中有酒企去年一年时间经销商数量骤减超 3000家。 而反映经销商打款意愿的合同负债一项，去年也有多家酒企合同负债下滑；随着高库存和价格倒挂等现 象持续，白酒经销商普遍承压。面对越来越多人的"逃离"，酒企要怎么做才能留住经销商？ 7家酒企去年经销商数量共减少超4000家 上海贵酒减少3627家 从整体来看，2024年20家白酒上市公司的经销商总数量出现微增，其中有13家酒企的经销商数量增加， 但经销商数量减少的酒企有7家，减少的总量超过4000家，这在以往属于较为罕见的情况。 课题组记者了解到，上海贵酒2024年末的经销商数量仅剩772家，相比2023年，经销商数量锐减3627 家，成为20家上市公司中经销商数量减少最多的企业。 对此，上海贵酒在财报中表示，2024年，受多方面因素影响，公司资金承压，市场投放减少。叠加公司 实际控制人被公安机关采取强制措施和控股股东 ...

毛利率端：2024/25Q1白酒板块平均毛利率分别为81.8%/81.5%，高端酒表现相对稳健，次高端酒分化明 显，地产酒多有回落。 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，25Q1春节旺季催化下，行业整体营收小幅增长，但增速较 2024年下滑，行业仍处调整期。分价格带来看，高端白酒整体稳中有增，次高端酒营收增速接近零值区 间，地产酒及其他白酒分化加剧。当前进入5月，白酒行业由传统淡季转向五一、端午小旺季，在需求 回暖的情况下主流产品价盘有望企稳。展望2025全年，龙头酒企稳字当头，渠道静待库存消化，动销预 计保持平稳。 广发证券主要观点如下： 收入端：高端表现稳健，次高端承压，地产酒分化 高端酒：25Q1三家酒企营业总收入均延续增长态势，相较其他酒企展现出更强的品牌力与经营稳定 性。 次高端：春节期间营收承压，24Q4+25Q1次高端酒企收入合计266.1亿元，同比-4.8%。分公司看，山西 汾酒表现突出，水井坊发力新渠道带动增长，舍得酒业、酒鬼酒持续调整。 地产酒：25Q1内部呈现强分化。古井贡酒、今世缘收入增速表现较好，主因部分强势单品势能延续、 持续放量，口子窖在新品兼8带动下营收表现略超预期，迎驾贡 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, with expectations for a recovery in elasticity as the economy stabilizes [5][7]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.576 billion and 346 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 25% and 37% [5]. - The company is positioned as a resilient player in the mid-to-high-end market, with anticipated brand strength improvement post-economic recovery [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the gross margin and net profit margin were 69% and 22%, showing declines of 4.8 and 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company's operating cash flow significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 107% to 224 million yuan [5]. - Contract liabilities reached 206 million yuan by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41 million yuan [5]. Sales Channel and Product Performance - E-commerce sales showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 37%, while wholesale and agency sales declined by 32% [6]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in Q1 2025 was 1.234 billion and 208 million yuan, respectively, with mid-to-high-end liquor sales experiencing a larger decline [6]. - The company has focused on developing its domestic market, particularly in regions like Suining, resulting in a year-on-year revenue increase of 7 percentage points in provincial markets [6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.10, 2.84, and 3.61 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28, 20, and 16 times [7][10]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in business dining scenarios, which will enhance its performance in the next few years [7].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with revenue growth rates declining from double digits to single digits, and cash flow growth lagging behind revenue growth [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - The white liquor industry achieved a total revenue of 427.218 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.38%, and a net profit of 166.805 billion yuan, up 7.41% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the industry reported revenues of 148.535 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.43%, and a net profit of 63.097 billion yuan, growing by 2.71% [2]. - Combining Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the industry generated revenues of 247.491 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.11%, and a net profit of 98.491 billion yuan, up 0.86% [2]. - Revenue growth rates are highest for high-end liquor, followed by mid-range and then sub-high-end liquor, while net profit growth rates follow the same order [2]. Cash Flow and Prepayments - By the end of 2024, the industry had prepayments of 60.328 billion yuan, an increase of 18.601 billion yuan from Q3 2024 [3]. - In Q1 2025, prepayments decreased to 49.177 billion yuan, down 11.151 billion yuan from Q4 2024 [3]. - The operating cash flow net amount for the industry in 2024 was 148.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.72%, while cash received from sales was 465.847 billion yuan, growing by 6.25% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the operating cash flow net amount was 48.645 billion yuan, up 62.29%, with cash received from sales at 150.192 billion yuan, a 16.65% increase [3]. Valuation Analysis and Dividends - As of April 30, 2025, the absolute PE ratio for the white liquor sector was 19.7x, below the historical average of 30.6x since 2011 [4]. - The relative PE ratio compared to the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.39x, also below the historical average of 2.04x [4]. - Most companies in the sector increased their annual dividend rates in 2024, with dividend yields rising above 3% [4]. - The current valuation reflects market expectations of continued demand pressure, suggesting limited downside for leading brands if demand stabilizes [4]. Recommended Stocks - Key recommendations include Kweichow Moutai (600519), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Wuliangye (000858), Jinshiyuan (603369), and Yingjia Gongjiu (603198) [5].

文 | 酒讯 半颗 编辑 | 方圆 年份打底，文化加持，老牌白酒的故事常常从传承讲起。但相比于年份与文化属性，山庄集团选择了另 一条路——科技。 山庄集团近年来发力科研，为旗下皇家窖藏系列贴上"醒酒更快"的标签，从产品卖点到战略方向进行微 生物研究、加码智能酿造，"科技"正被山庄集团视为撬动未来的一支新杠杆。 当前河北白酒市场三足鼎立，衡水老白干、丛台、山庄三家竞争胶着。在此背景下，山庄集团试图借助 科技构建起差异化优势冲击百亿营收。那么，"科技"这张牌会是可行解法？ 片来源：山庄集团官网 01 老牌酒的科技风 如果要给山庄集团近几年的关键词做一个排序，"科技"无疑排在前列。2025年开窖节上，山庄集团抛出 了"品质为基、文化为魂、科技为翼"的核心理念，2024年开窖节的主题则为"匠心科技·醒酒更快"。重 要的事情说两遍，可以看出山庄集团对科技的重视。 走进细看，山庄集团目前的科技叙事，基本是围绕皇家窖藏系列展开，核心卖点落在"醒酒更快"。为 此，山庄集团与天津科技大学、中国食品检测中心等科研机构合作，围绕"饮后舒适度"这一消费痛点， 进行了生产酿造多个环节的研究。 图 片来源：山庄集团公众号 他们筛选、分离 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company Jinshiyuan achieved record high performance in 2024, with significant revenue growth and expansion into markets outside Jiangsu province [1][6][10] Financial Performance - In 2024, Jinshiyuan reported revenue of 11.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.32%, and a net profit of 3.412 billion yuan, up 8.80% [1][6] - The company's non-net profit reached 3.380 billion yuan, growing by 7.80% [1][6] - In Q1 2025, Jinshiyuan's revenue was 5.099 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.17% increase year-on-year [11] Market Expansion - Jinshiyuan's revenue from outside Jiangsu province reached 926 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 27.37%, surpassing the overall revenue growth rate [2][12] - In Q1 2025, revenue from outside Jiangsu was 437 million yuan, increasing by 19.04% [3][13] - The company has identified Shandong, Anhui, Henan, and Zhejiang as key regions for market expansion [3][13] Product Segmentation - The revenue from high-end products (特A+类) was 7.491 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth of 15.17% and a gross margin of 82.7% [6][7] - The revenue from the A category was 419 million yuan, growing by 1.95%, while the B category saw a decline of 11.09% [7] Organizational Changes - Jinshiyuan is undergoing organizational restructuring to enhance management efficiency and resource allocation [14][15] - A new customer relationship management department has been established, while the strategic research department has been dissolved [15] Dividend Policy - Jinshiyuan announced a dividend of 12 yuan per share, totaling 1.496 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 43.85%, both marking historical highs [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, despite achieving significant revenue and profit figures for 2024 [1][2][3] - In 2024, 21 listed baijiu companies reported a total revenue of 443.97 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 168.08 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.92% and a net profit increase of 7.01% [1][2] - The number of companies experiencing revenue and net profit declines has increased, with 6 companies reporting revenue drops and 8 companies reporting net profit declines in 2024, compared to 2 and 3 respectively in 2023 [1][2] Group 2 - The "billion club" companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, contributed significantly to the overall performance, achieving a combined revenue of 379.73 billion yuan and a net profit of 155.99 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The growth rates for these leading companies have also slowed, with revenue growth at 8.69% and net profit growth at 8.90% in 2024, compared to double-digit growth rates from 2021 to 2023 [2] - Inventory pressure is a significant concern for baijiu companies, with many focusing on destocking as a primary task in the first half of 2025 [2][3] Group 3 - The high inventory levels in the market have led companies to intentionally slow down the release of products to alleviate channel pressure, resulting in increased stockpiles [3] - The Chinese liquor industry faces challenges due to insufficient social purchasing power, with many distributors struggling to clear their inventory [3] - Expanding into international markets is seen as a potential growth avenue for baijiu companies, with the China Alcoholic Drinks Association emphasizing the importance of international market expansion for industry transformation [3][4] Group 4 - The transition from focusing on domestic markets to exploring international markets presents challenges, particularly in integrating traditional Chinese liquor culture with local consumer preferences abroad [4] - Strategies such as pairing liquor with Chinese cuisine and leveraging e-commerce platforms are suggested as innovative approaches for international expansion [4] - The current wave of internationalization for baijiu companies is characterized by a more systematic approach, including global brand promotion and quality education [5]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 25 年经营战略延续，收入目标 5-12% [Table_Title2] 今世缘(603369) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 603369 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 59.6/35.35 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 583.38 | | 最新收盘价： | 46.79 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 583.38 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 1,246.80 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 1 2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 年，公司实现营业收入 115.44 亿元，同 比+14.32%，实现归母净利润 34.12 亿元，同比+8.80%，收入业绩符合市场预期。2025Q1，公司实现营业收入 50.99 亿元，同比+9.17%，实现归母净利润 16.44 亿元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yanghe Co., Ltd. (002304), is undergoing active adjustments in its operations while awaiting improvements in its business performance, as highlighted in the recent research report by Dongwu Securities [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 28.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.673 billion yuan, down 33.37% year-on-year [2]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 1.360 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 52.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of -190.5 million yuan compared to -18.8 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.066 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.92% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.637 billion yuan, down 39.93% year-on-year [2]. Strategic Adjustments - The company is actively adjusting its business strategy in response to the competitive pressures in the white liquor industry, particularly in the mid-range and premium segments [2]. - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in 2024 decreased by 14.79% and 0.49% respectively, indicating a proactive adjustment in core product lines [2]. - The company plans to focus on the Jiangsu province and surrounding markets to strengthen its market position [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - In 2024, the sales net profit margin decreased by 7.16 percentage points to 23.09%, with a gross profit margin down by 2.09 percentage points to 73.16% due to a decline in the proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor [3]. - The tax and additional rate increased by 0.81 percentage points to 16.71%, while the sales expense ratio rose by 2.84 percentage points to 19.10% and the management expense ratio increased by 1.34 percentage points to 6.67% [3]. Q1 2025 Performance Insights - In Q1 2025, the sales net profit margin decreased by 4.41 percentage points to 32.83%, with a gross profit margin of 75.59% [4]. - Sales collections in Q1 2025 amounted to 9.805 billion yuan, a decline of 24.03% year-on-year, with contract liabilities at 7.024 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.209 billion yuan [4]. Future Outlook and Investment Rating - The company is expected to maintain strategic discipline and enhance management to return to a growth trajectory, with updated net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 5.46 billion yuan, 5.66 billion yuan, and 5.90 billion yuan respectively [5]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 18.9, 18.3, and 17.5 for 2025 to 2027, with a maintained "buy" rating [5].