2026.01. 20 本文字数：1996，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 受美国总统特朗普上周末威胁对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、荷兰、芬兰和英国八个欧洲盟国加征关税影响，全球市场本周首个交易日迎来巨震。 欧洲股市全线下挫，因假日休市，美股期指盘前跌逾1%。 在地缘政治与经济前景动荡的背景下，投资者纷纷涌入避险资产，推动黄金与白银价格在时隔数日后再度飙升至新高点。 关税威胁又来了 特朗普在社交媒体明确表示，若未能就全面收购格陵兰岛达成协议，自6月1日起，对上述所有国家的关税税率将提升至25%。这些国家均为北约成员 国，且在丹麦拒绝出售格陵兰岛一事上，一致选择支持丹麦的立场。 预测市场正将格陵兰岛相关风险纳入定价模型。在Polymarket预测市场上，交易员目前认为，与格陵兰岛相关的部分关税在2月1日前生效的概率为 39%；分国家来看，丹麦和挪威面临关税的概率分别为36%和35%，德国则为25%。长期预测显示，美国在2026年取得格陵兰岛部分地区控制权的概率 为25%，而美国对格陵兰岛发动军事入侵的概率相对较低，仅为11%。 受马丁路德金纪念日影响，美国股市与债市周一休市，因此此次关税威胁的 ...

受美国总统特朗普上周末威胁对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、荷兰、芬兰和英国八个欧洲盟国加征 关税影响，全球市场本周首个交易日迎来巨震。欧洲股市全线下挫，因假日休市，美股期指盘前跌逾 1%。 在地缘政治与经济前景动荡的背景下，投资者纷纷涌入避险资产，推动黄金与白银价格在时隔数日后再 度飙升至新高点。 关税威胁又来了 围绕格陵兰岛的争端，只是当前众多地缘政治热点之一。特朗普还在考虑介入伊朗国内动荡局势；与此 同时，美国政府威胁起诉美联储主席鲍威尔，这一消息再次引发外界对美联储独立性的担忧。近期华尔 街频繁上调黄金目标价，其中美银和摩根大通认为金价有望最终触及6000美元。 荷兰国际集团ING在发给第一财经记者的报告中写道，"特朗普此次的关税声明，将贸易紧张局势推向 了全新高度 ——此举的背后，经济逻辑的驱动成分减弱，政治动机的主导意味越发明显。这也将长期 以来的跨大西洋关系推入严重危机，局势存在明显的进一步升级风险，还会给欧美双方的经济带来无端 的负面后果。" 世界经济论坛年会本周即将在达沃斯召开，特朗普将出席此次会议。值得一提的是，论坛会前发布的年 度风险认知调查报告显示，国家间的经济对抗已取代武装冲突，成为全 ...

去年4月一幕是否会重演？ 受美国总统特朗普上周末威胁对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、荷兰、芬兰和英国八个欧洲盟国加征 关税影响，全球市场本周首个交易日迎来巨震。欧洲股市全线下挫，因假日休市，美股期指盘前跌逾 1%。 在地缘政治与经济前景动荡的背景下，投资者纷纷涌入避险资产，推动黄金与白银价格在时隔数日后再 度飙升至新高点。 关税威胁又来了 特朗普在社交媒体明确表示，若未能就全面收购格陵兰岛达成协议，自6月1日起，对上述所有国家的关 税税率将提升至25%。这些国家均为北约成员国，且在丹麦拒绝出售格陵兰岛一事上，一致选择支持丹 麦的立场。 预测市场正将格陵兰岛相关风险纳入定价模型。在Polymarket预测市场上，交易员目前认为，与格陵兰 岛相关的部分关税在2月1日前生效的概率为39%；分国家来看，丹麦和挪威面临关税的概率分别为36% 和35%，德国则为25%。长期预测显示，美国在2026年取得格陵兰岛部分地区控制权的概率为25%，而 美国对格陵兰岛发动军事入侵的概率相对较低，仅为11%。 受马丁路德金纪念日影响，美国股市与债市周一休市，因此此次关税威胁的首轮市场影响率先在欧洲本 土显现。泛欧斯托克600指数收跌 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices surged to a historical high, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.77% to $4,676.70 per ounce, and reaching $4,698 during Asian trading hours, driven by concerns over a potential trade war between the US and Europe due to President Trump's actions regarding Greenland [1] - COMEX silver futures increased by 6.49%, closing at $94.280 per ounce, also hitting a new historical high during the trading session [1] - Over the past 12 months, international gold prices have risen approximately 70%, with recent geopolitical tensions and criticisms of the Federal Reserve's independence further fueling demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5%, and also adjusted the growth expectations for 2026 [3] - The Chinese government is set to hold two important press conferences on January 20, 2026, to discuss the implementation of the central economic work conference and the role of active fiscal policy in promoting high-quality economic development [4] Group 3 - Jihong Co., Ltd. (02603) expects a net profit of approximately RMB 273 million to RMB 291 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 60% [5] - Xinyi International (00732) announced an investment of RMB 500 million into Guangdian Renshou, reducing its ownership from 100% to 60% after the completion of the capital increase agreement [6] - Tencent, Fidelity International, and Temasek are reportedly planning to invest in the Hong Kong IPO of snack retailer Mingming Hen Mang, with the fundraising potentially reaching up to $500 million [7][8] Group 4 - HSBC (00005) is on track to reach a market capitalization of £300 billion, with the bank's CEO expressing confidence in the potential for a stock price increase of over 50% [9] - China Duty Free Group (01880) announced plans to acquire equity and assets related to DFS's travel retail business in Greater China for up to $395 million [10][11] - XPeng Motors has successfully launched the first robot developed under the ET1 standard, marking a significant step towards mass production of high-level humanoid robots [12] Group 5 - China Eastern Airlines announced the sale of a property by its subsidiary Shanghai Airlines for approximately RMB 134 million, aimed at optimizing its asset-liability structure [13] - Mingming Hen Mang plans to issue over 14 million shares in its Hong Kong IPO, with a pricing range between HKD 226.6 and HKD 236.6 per share, expected to start trading on January 28 [14] - SANY International (00631) reported a revenue of approximately RMB 18.147 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 22.9% [16]

智通财经APP获悉，周一，受美国总统特朗普就格陵兰岛问题对欧洲征收关税威胁的影响，贵金属价格 飙升，黄金和白银矿业股走强，加拿大股市延续了此前的上涨势头，连续第四个交易日走高。多伦多证 券交易所S&P/TSX综合指数收盘上涨约0.2%，创下新高。在11个板块中，材料板块表现最佳。Iamgold 公司在公布好于预期的初步产量数据后，领涨该指数。 由于特朗普加大了吞并格陵兰岛的力度，加剧了人们对美国和欧洲之间可能爆发破坏性贸易战的担忧， 黄金和白银价格飙升至历史新高。现货黄金价格一度上涨2.1%，接近每盎司4700美元，白银价格也一 度飙升4.4%，原因是特朗普的强硬立场打压美元，提振了避险资产的需求。美国将对包括法国、德国 和英国在内的八个反对其收购格陵兰岛计划的欧洲国家加征关税。 加拿大丰业银行量化及指数策略师Jean-Michel Gauthier周一在致客户的报告中写道，预计S&P/TSX指数 成分股公司将在下周开始的第四季度财报季中再创佳绩。他预计季度盈利将同比增长14%。 特朗普吞并格陵兰岛的举动引发的担忧，再次推动金价创纪录上涨，过去12个月金价累计上涨约70%。 近几周来，随着地缘政治紧张局势加剧 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising over 300 points, indicating potential economic recovery or market manipulation [1] - TSMC's ADR increased by over 6%, reaching a market capitalization of over $1.8 trillion, reflecting both technological advantages and capital exuberance in the semiconductor industry [1] - The semiconductor supply chain is under scrutiny, with future performance dependent on orders, capacity, and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing volatility, with Bitcoin nearing $96,240 and Dogecoin dropping over 4%, highlighting the risks associated with leveraged trading [4] - Over 120,000 individuals faced liquidation in the past 24 hours, indicating a significant risk exposure among younger investors [4] Group 3: Precious Metals and Oil - Precious metals like gold and silver are facing declines, with silver dropping below $91 and gold falling below $4,620, suggesting that safe-haven assets are not immune to market sentiment [3][5] - Oil prices have also plummeted, with WTI and Brent crude both falling over 4%, indicating market reactions to geopolitical events [3] Group 4: Employment and Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 198,000, the lowest since November 29 of the previous year, suggesting a stable job market [5] - Despite positive employment data, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about inflation and the need for continued tightening [5][6] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market is characterized by a preference for certain stocks, with leading technology and semiconductor companies like NVIDIA and Micron seeing significant gains [8] - Investors are advised to maintain a long-term perspective while managing leverage and liquidity, as short-term data can be misleading [9] - The current market environment emphasizes the need for transparency and comparability in data, as well as caution regarding interest rate paths and geopolitical risks [9]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price continues to maintain a strong momentum due to ongoing geopolitical risks and expectations of declining dollar credit, making gold ETFs and futures more attractive for short-term investors [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - On January 19, the COMEX gold futures for February reached a historical high of $4698 per ounce, with trading volume exceeding 80,000 contracts and open interest at 246,200 contracts [1]. - The domestic Shanghai gold futures also hit a record high, reaching 1050.4 yuan per gram, with a closing price of 1048.88 yuan per gram and a trading volume of 155,800 contracts [1]. - The strong performance of gold prices is supported by persistent geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that gold ETFs and futures have shown significant gains this year, while gold-related stocks have varied performance based on individual companies' production and profitability [2]. - The short-term outlook for gold prices remains strong, with potential for funds to enter the market, providing support for prices [2][3]. - Gold futures are highlighted as having prominent short-term trading opportunities due to their leverage, suitable for risk-tolerant investors [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - As of January 19, the total funds in the Shanghai gold futures market reached 117.57 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.52 billion yuan for the day [3]. - The Shanghai silver market also saw significant funds, with a total of 79.15 billion yuan and a net inflow of 1.56 billion yuan [3]. - The capital inflow positions Shanghai gold and silver as the top two in the commodity market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The escalating tariff threats between the US and Europe regarding Greenland have led to significant market turbulence, resulting in a sharp increase in commodity prices, with gold and silver reaching historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Gold and silver have both reached new historical highs, indicating a strong demand for precious metals during turbulent times [1][3]. - Prices of other metals such as copper, platinum, and nickel have also risen, highlighting a trend where investors are turning to metal assets as a safe haven [1][3]. - Copper prices have notably surged, reaching $12,985 per ton, approaching recent historical peaks [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the ongoing escalation of the US-EU tariff conflict may signal a weakening dollar, declining real interest rates, and rising inflation levels [4]. - The situation is viewed as a positive factor for all commodities, according to analysts from Panmure Liberum [2][5].

因特朗普总统加码推进收购格陵兰岛计划，引发市场对欧美爆发破坏性贸易战的担忧，国际黄金与白银 价格飙升至历史新高。现货黄金涨幅最高达 2.1%，逼近每盎司 4700 美元；白银涨幅最高达 4.4%。特 朗普的强硬举措令美元承压，同时提振了市场对避险资产的需求。过去 12 个月间，国际金价已累计上 涨约 70%，此番特朗普谋求吞并格陵兰岛引发的相关担忧，进一步为这一轮创纪录涨势注入新动力。 近几周来，地缘政治紧张局势升级，加之针对美联储独立性的抨击再次出现，投资者纷纷涌入黄金交易 市场。 ...

1月19日，周一亚洲交易时段，受地缘政治摩擦加剧影响，市场情绪显著承压。金丰来认为，美国针对 欧洲八国提出的关税威胁，不仅扰动了汇市平衡，更直接点燃了避险资产的买气，导致黄金价格在避险 情绪的簇拥下强势突破，刷新了历史交易纪录。 针对当前局势，相关观点表示，拟议中的关税计划涉及德国、英国、法国等核心经济体，若谈判无果， 最高税率将在6月升至25%。金丰来表示，这种以领土诉求为导向的贸易施压，迫使欧盟考虑动用《反 胁迫工具》并对约1080亿美元的美国商品实施反制。这种剑拔弩张的氛围，让投资者对全球经济增长前 景感到不安，从而将目光转向更具确定性的贵金属市场。 在金融层面，德意志银行的相关研究表示，欧洲投资者持有的美国证券规模高达8万亿美元。金丰来认 为，如果外交僵局导致这笔巨额资本出现回流，全球市场将面临"资本武器化"的剧烈冲击，其风险等级 远高于常规贸易摩擦。标普500期货下跌0.8%及纳斯达克期货下跌1.1%，均体现了避险情绪在资产配置 中的主导地位，而黄金作为避险资产的首选，正持续吸纳从风险资产中撤出的资金。 区域经济数据也为市场蒙上了阴影。数据显示，相关经济体12月季度的增长率放缓至4.5%，且零售额 ...