Group 1: Gold Market - Economists express concerns that the Federal Reserve may lose its independence in setting interest rates due to Trump's actions, with 25% fearing this could happen before the end of his term in 2029 [1] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates an 89.6% probability of a rate cut in September, with a 47.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October [1] - Gold prices have been rising, nearing the historical high of $3500, with no immediate signs of a peak; short-term support is at $3466 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is crucial, especially after the last meeting announced an increase in production by 547,000 barrels per day [3] - The U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 13.58 million barrels per day in June, while the IEA warns of a global supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day, significantly outpacing demand growth of 700,000 barrels per day [3] - Oil prices have been fluctuating between $62 and $65 since mid-August, with a potential for further declines if the price does not break above $65 [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July and have been fluctuating between $4.32 and $4.50 in August, indicating a potential for further declines [6] - A short-term breakout above $4.50 was not sustained, with resistance at $4.51 and support at $4.46 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index shows a weak downward trend, recently bouncing back from the support level around 41800; a stable position above 42400 could indicate a return to an upward trend [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence while acknowledging past decision-making errors [2][3] - Treasury Secretary Bessent supports President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, indicating dissatisfaction with the Fed's past decisions [2][3] - There are concerns that the dismissal of Cook is aimed at allowing Trump to appoint allies to the Federal Reserve Board, which could influence its majority [3][4] Group 2 - Bessent criticized the Federal Reserve for not conducting an independent review of Cook's alleged misconduct regarding mortgage applications [4] - Cook's defense states that any alleged misconduct occurred before her Senate confirmation and is unrelated to her duties as a governor [4] - Bessent urges the Senate to quickly confirm Stephen Milan as a temporary board member to fill the vacancy left by Adrienne Kugler's resignation [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased investment in precious metals, with gold approaching its previous high and silver breaking through $40, reaching its highest level since 2011. The A - share market sentiment remains strong, and trading volume is still high. The US government's influence on the Federal Reserve is strengthening, and the US dollar maintains a weak trend. The stock index futures market is expected to remain bullish in the short term, and the US stock index is expected to fluctuate upward due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][3][4]. - In the commodity market, the supply and demand of various products show different trends. For example, the production of red dates in Xinjiang is normal, and the production of polycrystalline silicon may increase in September. The price trends of different commodities also vary, with some expected to be volatile, some to decline slightly, and some to have potential upward momentum [5][56]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary stated that the Federal Reserve should be independent but has made many mistakes. Market concerns about its independence have led to a strong rise in precious metals. The expected trend of gold is bullish but with increased volatility. Whether it can break through the previous high remains to be seen [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The cross - regional traffic volume during the summer vacation increased by 7% year - on - year, and the SCO issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development. The A - share market sentiment is strong, and trading volume is high. It is recommended to allocate the stock indices evenly [16][17][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary's statement implies that the US government's influence on the Federal Reserve is strengthening, and the US dollar is expected to remain weak [23][24]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence are hard to ease, but short - term expectations of interest rate cuts support the risk appetite of the US stock market. The index is expected to fluctuate upward [25][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through reverse repurchase operations. There are opportunities to go long on treasury bonds, but the rhythm needs to be grasped [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In August, the national soybean crushing volume increased, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills rose slightly. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of the US balance sheet and Sino - US relations [29][30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In September, the arrival of imported rapeseed is expected to decrease significantly, and the export of Malaysian palm oil in August increased by 10.22% month - on - month. It is recommended to gradually lay out long positions and pay attention to the production in August and the MPOB report [32][33][34]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net short position of raw sugar increased, and the export of Indian sugar in the 2025/26 season may reach 200,000 tons. The domestic sugar market is under pressure from imported processed sugar, but the downside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on the 1 - month contract on dips [35][36][38]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch has stabilized. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price difference between rice and flour is at a low level. Attention should be paid to the driving factors for widening the price difference [40]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises in August decreased month - on - month but were still higher than the same period last year. The futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [41][42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in August increased year - on - year, and the heavy - truck sales increased by 35%. The steel price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with a callback mindset [43][44][47]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - During the summer vacation, the national railway transported 2.43 billion tons of thermal coal. The price of steam coal is expected to decline slightly seasonally and maintain a range of 650 - 700 yuan [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The CMI index in August increased year - on - year. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile, and short - selling should be cautious [49][50]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal and entering the sugar - increasing period. The futures price is in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [51][52]. 2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Some coal mines are operating normally, and the supply is affected by safety inspections. The demand side is under pressure, and the futures price is expected to be volatile [53][54]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polycrystalline Silicon) - There are many positive news, but the production in September may increase. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in time and consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and December [56][58][59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel industry in Indonesia is operating normally. The raw material price is firm, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low levels [60][61][62]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is less than expected. The short - term price is expected to be in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [63][64]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The merger of Sayona and Piedmont was completed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities after de - stocking and the strengthening of the basis, as well as positive arbitrage opportunities [65][66]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price is weak, and the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to turn from loose to tight. It is recommended to consider long positions at low levels and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [69][70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Traders plan to make large - scale deliveries of copper futures. The market is paying attention to the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on a single - side basis and wait and see on an arbitrage basis [71][73][74]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory has increased, and the LME zinc price is strong. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [75][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG in East China is stable, and the 9 - month CP price remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of upward valuation repair of CP [77][78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The supply of Nayara refinery depends entirely on Russia. The oil price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price is weak, and the supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [82][83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has declined, and the basis has weakened. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [85][87][88]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory has decreased, mainly due to the reduction of refinery production. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88][89]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity utilization rate of melamine has increased. The supply of urea is under pressure, and the demand is not strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the new Indian tender [90][91]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has been slightly adjusted downward, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is under pressure [92][93]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene has increased. The short - term inventory pressure may slow down, but the outlook in the fourth quarter is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy [94][95]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash has decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [97]. 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The glass market is under pressure, and it is recommended to focus on arbitrage strategies of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price difference widens [98]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The throughput of the Port of Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia increased by 15.4% in the first half of the year. The spot freight rate is weak, and the supply pressure is high from late September to early October. The 10 - month contract has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to the support at 1,250 [99][100].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses concerns among economists regarding the potential impact of the Trump administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly after the term of Chairman Powell ends next year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Concerns - A survey of 94 economists indicates that many believe the Trump administration's interference could undermine the Federal Reserve's ability to manage inflation through interest rate setting [2][3]. - Economists warn that investors may be underestimating the threat posed by the Trump administration to the Federal Reserve's independence, with some describing the future of U.S. monetary policy as "chaotic" and "disastrous" [3][5]. - 89 out of 94 economists surveyed stated that the ongoing conflict has already damaged the credibility of the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The confirmation hearing for Trump's latest nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Miran, is scheduled for September 4, with expectations that it will be expedited before the FOMC meeting on September 16-17 [2][9]. - The article highlights a significant test of the relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly following Trump's dismissal of board member Cook, which has led to legal disputes [4][9]. - Economists express concern that if Trump's pressure leads to a loss of the Federal Reserve's independence, it could harm the largest economy in the world [5][10]. Group 3: Future Projections - 42% of surveyed economists believe that Trump's actions could trigger strong inflationary pressures, while 35% see a potential loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds as a major risk [6]. - A majority of economists (52%) expect that the focus of the Federal Reserve will shift after Powell's term ends, prioritizing government borrowing costs and employment over price stability [5]. - Despite the potential changes, over a quarter of economists remain cautiously optimistic, predicting that the Federal Reserve will still be able to fulfill its responsibilities, albeit with reduced independence [5].

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat due to ongoing conflicts with President Trump, which could have serious implications for both the U.S. and global economies [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra defended the independence of the Federal Reserve while acknowledging that it has made many mistakes [1] - Becerra stated that the Federal Reserve should be independent, but he also criticized its recent actions, including the costly renovations at its Washington headquarters [1] Group 2: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - President Trump recently dismissed Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, following allegations of mortgage fraud against her [2] - Cook's supporters argue that the fraud allegations are a pretext for Trump to appoint an ally to the Federal Reserve to further his policy agenda [2] - Becerra expressed surprise at the lack of independent review of the Federal Reserve's actions and highlighted the distinction between Cook's denial of wrongdoing and the President's authority to dismiss her [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Becerra dismissed claims that the market is being affected by Trump's actions, noting that the S&P index has reached new highs and bond yields remain strong [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses concerns regarding the influence of the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, particularly after the potential confirmation of Stephen Miran as a Fed governor, which could undermine the Fed's independence and credibility [2][5][6]. Group 1: Impact of Trump's Administration on the Federal Reserve - A survey of 94 economists indicates that many believe the Trump administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve could lead to a loss of its independence, with 89 participants stating that the ongoing conflict has already damaged the Fed's credibility [6]. - Over a quarter of economists worry that by 2029, the Fed may struggle to maintain its role in keeping borrowing costs free from political influence [6]. - 52% of respondents expect a shift in the Fed's focus after Powell's term ends, prioritizing government borrowing costs and employment over price stability [6]. Group 2: Economic Predictions and Concerns - Economists describe the outlook for U.S. monetary policy as "bad," "chaotic," and "disastrous," with 42% believing Trump's actions could trigger strong inflationary pressures [5][7]. - The potential loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds is seen as a significant risk by 35% of the surveyed economists [7]. - The article highlights that since 1951, the Fed has had the authority to set interest rates free from political pressure, despite past presidential calls for lower borrowing costs [9]. Group 3: Upcoming Events and Market Reactions - Stephen Miran's confirmation hearing is scheduled for September 4, with expectations that it may pass quickly before the FOMC meeting on September 16-17 [2][11]. - The market's reaction to Miran's nomination has been relatively calm, although there are concerns about potential aggressive questioning from Democrats regarding the administration's influence on the Fed [10][11]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting is estimated at 84%, following dovish comments from Powell [12].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid President Trump's attacks, leading to increased discussions about reducing exposure to U.S. assets among foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Foreign investors are increasingly discussing the need to reduce their exposure to U.S. assets due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence [2]. - U.S. domestic investors are less motivated to reallocate funds away from U.S. assets, attributed to a sense of complacency [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - There is a lack of evidence supporting inflation driven by tariffs, despite average tariffs nearing 20% [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence may lead to a sharp rise in long-term interest rates, potentially undermining hopes of alleviating U.S. debt repayment pressures [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The stability of the $37 trillion U.S. bond market is at risk due to increasing uncertainty, with potential liquidity panic in the short-term bond market as international investors signal a desire to limit exposure to long-term U.S. bonds [3]. - Despite concerns reflected in the bond and forex markets, the U.S. stock market is currently performing well, indicating a disconnect in pricing [3].

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook raises concerns about the independence of U.S. monetary policy, which could have severe implications for both the U.S. and global economies [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Monetary Policy - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve could undermine the independence of U.S. monetary policy, potentially destabilizing the U.S. economy and affecting global economic balance [1][3]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is considered crucial for maintaining the U.S. economy's stability and its position in the global economy, as political interference can lead to inflation, currency depreciation, and stock market declines [3]. Group 2: Legal and Political Context - Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook is unprecedented in U.S. history, as it marks the first time a president has sought to remove a sitting Federal Reserve governor, which may lead to legal challenges up to the Supreme Court [3]. - Cook has filed a lawsuit to prevent her dismissal, and it remains uncertain whether federal courts will agree that a criminal transfer without actual charges meets the "for cause" standard for removing a Federal Reserve governor [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Key inflation indicators, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), have remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target throughout the year, with July PCE showing a year-over-year increase of 2.6% and core PCE rising to 2.9% [4]. - The July CPI data indicated a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.7%, with core CPI increasing by 3.1%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [4]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a 89.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% stands at 10.3% [5].

美国财长贝森特：美联储是独立的，且应当保持独立，但美联储确实也犯过许多错误。如果抵押贷款指 控属实，美联储理事Lisa Cook应该被免职或辞职，她没有否认这些指控。令人惊讶的是美联储尚未对 针对Cook的指控进行独立审查。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has been performing strongly since April, with expectations of reaching 4,000 points this year, which correlates with the strengthening of the RMB against the USD [1][2]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - The A-share market has surged, reaching a peak of 3,900 points, leading to widespread confidence in surpassing 4,000 points within the year [1]. - As of August 21, foreign institutional investors held approximately 2.5 trillion RMB in A-shares, reflecting an 8% increase from the end of 2024 [8]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the USD has risen to 7.12, indicating a correlation with the A-share market's performance [2]. - A rising economy typically leads to higher asset returns, which in turn supports the appreciation of the currency [3][6]. - The increase in asset returns due to a booming economy results in a higher demand for RMB, thereby driving up its value [7]. Group 3: External Influences on Currency Strength - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially impacting the credibility of the USD [10]. - A decline in the credibility of the USD could benefit other currencies, including the RMB, contributing to its recent strength [11].