最新动态及原因 2025年12月15日，铂、把价格均出现大涨，截至14:30，拍主力合约上涨7.0%至482.4元/克，把主力合约上涨5.82%至411.8元/克。其主要原因在于，其一、市场进一步交易美联储融的立 受损所带来的未来降息空间的打开；真二，现货市场供需再度收紧。进入12月后，临近新任美联储主席提名，市场逐渐加强对美联储独立出风险的交易。根据央视财经、当地时间12日，持朗普 表示凯文·沃什已成为下一任美联储主席的头号候选人，并称在降息问题上与自己观点一致，他希望联邦基金利率一年后被降至"1%亮至更低"，以帮助财政部降低美国国贡的高额融资成本。 凯文 法什获得提名的概率大幅提升，截至12月15日，根据Polymarket，凯文·哈塞特被提名的概率降为52%，凯文·沃什被提名的概率上升至40%，我们认为，无论是哪位获得提名，在上任初期他都 将探持帰向部派的政策倾向，加之美国非农数据即将公布，市场认为数据或表现弱势，从而抬升降息预期，贵金属价格获得向上驱动。此外，近期铂金现货市场再度趋于紧张，藏至12月12日， 铂金1个月租赁利率上升至14.12%。双重因素共振下,今日铂把价格出现大涨。 三期货有限公司 ...

当地时间12月14日，美国白宫经济顾问凯文・哈塞特在接受美国哥伦比亚广播公司《面向全国》节目采 访时表示，如果自己获得提名出任美联储主席，美联储的利率决策仍将保持独立性，总统特朗普可以向 美联储提出政策建议，但其意见不具有权重。 "如果当选美联储主席，当总统说希望自己的意见被听到时，你会多久与总统协商一次？" 凯文・哈塞特： 我现在是总统的首席经济顾问，我几乎每天都和他谈论几乎所有事情。我当然也谈到了货币 政策。我认为他对我们应该做什么有着非常强烈和有依据的看法。但最终，美联储的工作是 保持独立性，并与联邦公开市场委员会的理事们共同协作，就利率水平达成集体共识，这一 过程基本上是在美联储主席的指导下进行的。但最终，是一个委员会来投票（决定）。我很 乐意每天和总统交谈，直到我们俩都去世，因为和他聊天非常有趣。" 总统的意见是否与联邦公开市场委员会的投票成员有同等的权重？ 凯文・哈塞特： 不，不是，他的意见不具备权重。只有当他的意见是合理的、基于数据的时候，才有参考价 值。然后如果你去联邦公开市场委员会，你可以说，'总统提出了这个意见，我认为这是一 个非常合理的意见。你们觉得怎么样？'如果他们拒绝，那么他们可以以 ...

冠通期货研究报告-- 宏观与大宗商品周报 市场综述 最近一周，海外聚焦美联储12月FOMC会议，国内瞩目中央经济工作会议。海外，12月FOMC会议如期降息25bp，点阵图彰显出美联 储官员内部的分歧，市场强化宽松预期，美债利率近弱远强，美元指数承压下行。国内，中央经济工作会议召开，肯定2025年的不平 凡，定调2026年的继续宽松，明确八大重点工作。11月宏观经济数据表现平平，工业转弱，投资降速，消费降低，出口强劲，物价分 化，信贷疲软。资本市场投资者态度谨慎，波动率VIX指数窄幅波动，风险资产涨跌互现，全球股市与大宗商品跌多涨少，A股走势分 化，BDI指数大幅回落。大宗商品分化加剧，贵金属与有色强势上扬，油价延续弱势拖累能化板块，地产的加剧恶化与政策的相对稳健， 令黑色系大幅下挫领跌商品。 国内债市涨跌互现近强远弱、股指震荡分化，商品大类板块涨跌互现多数收跌；股市震荡分化，成长型风格表现强于价值型，中 证500反弹幅度最为明显；国内商品大类板块涨跌互现多数收跌，Wind商品指数周度涨跌幅4.4%，10个商品大类板块指数中3个收涨7个 收跌。具体商品大类表现来看，商品期货表现分化加剧，贵金属飙涨超过4%，有色 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hassett emphasizes the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) in monetary policy decisions, stating that while the President's opinions can be considered, they do not hold equal weight in the decision-making process [3][5]. Group 1: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Hassett clearly states that the Fed's role is to maintain independence and work collaboratively with the Board members and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to reach a consensus on interest rates [4]. - He refutes the notion that the President's opinions carry the same weight as FOMC voting members, asserting that policymakers can freely reject the President's views and vote differently [5]. Group 2: Trump's Influence and Pressure - Trump and his senior advisors have been pressuring Fed Chairman Powell for months to lower interest rates, indicating a desire for a Fed chair who would support this agenda [5]. - Hassett attempts to frame Trump's involvement as a normal part of policy consultation rather than a threat to the Fed's independence, emphasizing that ultimate decision-making authority lies with the FOMC [5]. Group 3: Fed Chair Candidates - Hassett is widely regarded as a leading candidate for the Fed chair position, but Trump has not yet made a final decision, having also met with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh [6]. - The selection of the new Fed chair will significantly impact the future direction of U.S. monetary policy, with the new chair needing to balance Trump's policy expectations with the need to maintain the Fed's institutional independence [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the precious metals market shone brightly. Gold and silver were the best - performing assets among global major asset classes, with silver doubling in value and gold rising over 60%, the best annual performance since 1979. The underlying logic driving this bull market was the global shake of faith in the US dollar system, the decline of the real interest rate's explanatory power for precious metal prices, and the weakening independence of the Federal Reserve. Precious metals were re - defined from traditional safe - haven assets to inflation - resistant and risk assets [2][167]. - In 2026, the bull market in the precious metals market is expected to continue. The factors driving the 2025 rise may be strengthened. The Fed chair change, potential interest rate cuts, and increased US debt issuance may further undermine the US dollar's credit. Global central banks are likely to maintain strong gold - buying intentions, and investment demand for precious metals is expected to be further released. Silver may have a larger price increase than gold, and the gold - silver ratio may further decline [3][4][168]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections I. Review of Long - term and 2025 Trends of Precious Metals - **Long - term historical trends**: Since the Bretton Woods system in 1944, the gold price has experienced multiple bull - bear cycles. After the system collapsed in the 1970s, the gold price became market - oriented. From 1972 - 2023, it can be divided into five stages: the 1973 - 1980 bull market, the 1980 - 2000 bear market, the 2000 - 2011 bull market, the 2011 - 2018 bear market, and the 2019 - present bull market [12][13][14]. - **2025 trends**: Gold had two main upward waves in 2025, reaching a high of nearly $4400 per ounce. Silver's performance was even more remarkable, with a cumulative increase of over 80%. The gold - silver ratio declined from a high level [19][20][21]. II. Decline of the Explanatory Power of US Treasury Real Interest Rates for Precious Metal Prices Since 2023, US Treasury real interest rates have shown a positive correlation with gold prices. In 2025, their explanatory power for gold prices further weakened. The US debt, deficit, and damaged US dollar credit are becoming the new pricing anchors for gold, and the pricing logic has shifted from the financial to the monetary attribute [27][28]. III. The Underlying Logic of the Current Precious Metals Bull Market is Global De - dollarization - **The US dollar returning to its intrinsic value**: In 2025, the US dollar index declined by over 10%. The "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" aims to address the US trade deficit and manufacturing hollowing - out, which may lead to a long - term decline in the US dollar index [32][33]. - **Shaken faith in the US dollar**: In 2025, the US dollar and US Treasuries lost their safe - haven properties and began to show risk - asset characteristics. Gold and silver's safe - haven properties were highlighted [38][39]. - **Loosening of global capital's focus on US dollar assets**: In 2025, global capital reduced its allocation of US dollar assets and increased non - US assets. Precious metals benefited from this capital flow. In 2026, the attractiveness of US dollar assets may increase, but precious metals still have investment value [42][43][46]. - **Inability of stablecoins and the "Pennsylvania Plan" to fundamentally strengthen US dollar and US Treasury credit**: Stablecoins can temporarily increase US Treasury demand, but in the long run, they may accelerate the collapse of the US dollar credit system. The "Pennsylvania Plan" has not achieved the expected results in stabilizing the long - term US Treasury demand [49][53][57]. - **The US dollar index entering a new medium - to - long - term downward channel**: Historically, the US dollar index has a cycle of about 17 years, with 6 - 7 years of rising and 10 years of falling. Currently, it is at the beginning of a new downward cycle, which is favorable for the rise of precious metal prices [60][61][62]. IV. The Monetary Attributes of Precious Metals Shine Global high debt and shaken faith in the US dollar have made gold and silver the ultimate choice to hedge against the risk of the credit - currency system. In 2025, global major economies' long - term bond yields rose, and the US and French sovereign ratings were downgraded. The US Treasury debt scale expanded rapidly, and global central banks increased their gold holdings. The Fed's independence was severely challenged, which was conducive to the rise of precious metal prices [70][71][75]. V. Redefinition of Precious Metals - **Transition from safe - haven to inflation - resistant and risk assets**: Gold and silver are being re - defined from traditional safe - haven assets to inflation - resistant and risk assets. In 2026, with the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, global inflation may rise again, increasing the attractiveness of precious metals [90][91]. - **Highlighted value as a major asset allocation**: Gold and silver have both risk - asset attributes. Their volatility is similar to that of the S&P 500, and their positive correlation with the US stock market is increasing. They are becoming an important part of global major asset allocation [94]. VI. Changes in the Supply - Demand Structure of Precious Metals - **Global central banks' gold - buying**: In 2025, the global central banks' gold - buying pace slowed down in the first half of the year but accelerated in the third quarter. It is expected that in 2026, central banks' gold - buying intentions will remain strong due to the potential weakening of the US dollar credit [96][99][101]. - **Global physical gold supply and demand**: In 2025, gold investment demand soared, compensating for the decline in central banks' gold - buying. Although the supply was slightly in surplus in the first three quarters, the supply - demand pattern tightened compared to 2024. In 2026, the physical gold market may face a supply shortage [106][110][111]. - **Global physical silver supply and demand**: In recent years, silver supply has been constrained. In 2025, supply is expected to increase by about 2%. In 2026, the supply growth rate may be about 1.5%. Demand in 2025 is expected to decline by 1%, but in 2026, it may increase by 2%. The silver market has had a supply shortage for five consecutive years, and the shortage may widen in 2026 [112][121][127]. VII. Technical and Seasonal Analysis - **Technical analysis**: Gold's upward space has been fully opened. Based on historical bull - market performance, it still has room for growth. Silver usually lags behind gold in entering the bull market but has a larger cumulative increase. Technically, it supports a significant increase in silver prices [144][146]. - **Seasonal analysis**: For gold, December has the highest winning rate, and November - January is the strong - season period. For silver, January and June have a higher probability of decline, while March and October have a higher probability of increase [149]. VIII. Position Changes In 2025, the inventories of COMEX gold and silver increased. The non - commercial net long positions in the futures market decreased, but the spot - market sentiment was stronger, as shown by the increase in ETF holdings [157]. IX. Arbitrage Strategy The gold - silver ratio reflects the premium of gold over silver in terms of safe - haven demand. In 2025, the gold - silver ratio declined. In 2026, with the rise of inflation expectations and copper prices, the gold - silver ratio is expected to further decline to around 60 [162][163]. X. Full - text Summary and Operational Suggestions The bull market in the precious metals market in 2026 is expected to continue. The upper pressure range for London gold is $5000 - $5200 per ounce, and the lower support range is $4100 - $4300 per ounce. For Shanghai gold futures, the pressure range is 1200 - 1250 yuan per gram, and the support range is 920 - 940 yuan per gram. The upper pressure range for London silver is $90 - $95 per ounce, and the lower support range is $55 - $60 per ounce. For Shanghai silver futures, the pressure range is 19000 - 20000 yuan per kilogram, and the support range is 13000 - 13500 yuan per kilogram [168]. XI. Related Stocks The report lists the cumulative price increases of some precious - metal - related stocks in 2025, such as Shandong Gold (600547.SH) with a 59.05% increase and Western Gold (601069.SH) with a 129.82% increase [170].

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have experienced a significant rebound, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% as of December 9, 2025, driven by both investment demand and physical supply shortages [1] - The global silver supply is projected to remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while demand is expected to decline to 1.12 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 118 million ounces for the fifth consecutive year [4][5] - Investment demand for silver is bolstered by strong inflows into silver ETFs, with the largest ETF, SLV, holding 15,900 tons of silver, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase [4] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have risen approximately 60% year-to-date, supported by investment demand and central bank purchases, with global central banks acquiring 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter [2] - The total global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with investment demand accounting for 537.33 tons, a 47.3% year-on-year increase [2] - The potential for continued monetary easing by central banks may sustain upward pressure on gold prices, although geopolitical tensions and a decline in investment demand could limit short-term gains [2][8] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, which could exacerbate domestic inflation and undermine the dollar's purchasing power, potentially leading to increased gold purchases by global central banks [3] - The labor market shows signs of slowing, with the annualized hiring rate dropping to approximately 21.5%, indicating a shift in employee retention behavior [7] - The possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December 2025 is high, but the central bank may issue hawkish statements to prevent market dependency on automatic policy adjustments [6][7]

特朗普的首席经济顾问哈塞特Kevin Hassett周日表示，如果被选中领导美联储，他将考虑总统的政策意 见，但央行利率决策将保持独立。这一表态试图在承认特朗普影响力的同时，强调美联储决策机制的独 立性。 特朗普和高级顾问数月来一直向美联储主席鲍威尔施压要求降息。在周日白宫的节日招待会上，特朗普 表示"我们很快就会有一个优秀的美联储主席，他会希望看到利率下降"，但"我们正在与更高的利率作 斗争"。 据彭博报道，特朗普在上周五的采访中表达了对美联储利率政策的看法，认为总统应该能够对利率政策 提出建议。这一言论引发了对美联储独立性的新一轮讨论。 哈塞特在CBS《Face the Nation》节目中回应了特朗普上周五关于应该能够对美联储利率提出建议的言 论。他表示，总统"对我们应该做什么有非常强烈且有根据的观点"，但"美联储的工作是保持独立"。 这番表态正值特朗普考虑美联储主席人选的关键时刻。美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于5月结束，哈 塞特被视为该职位的热门候选人。特朗普还在上周会见了前美联储理事Kevin Warsh，并在周五的《华 尔街日报》采访中将两人列为美联储主席的首选。 哈塞特的表态凸显了平衡总统影响力 ...

白宫国家经济委员会主席凯文.哈塞特表示，如果被选中领导美联储，他会考虑美国总统特朗普的政策 意见，但央行的利率决策仍将保持独立。 即便担任美联储主席，"我也很乐意每天和总统交谈，直到我们俩都去见上帝，因为和他交谈实在太有 意思了，"哈塞特表示。 白宫首席经济顾问哈塞特上周日称，总统"对我们应当采取的行动有着非常坚定且理由充分的看 法"。"但最终，美联储的职责是保持独立性，并与联邦储备理事会以及联邦公开市场委员会的成员们合 作，就利率应处于何种水平达成集体共识，"他表示。 然而，他驳斥了"总统的意见将与联邦公开市场委员会投票成员具有同等分量"的说法，称政策制定者可 自由拒绝总统意见，并"投出不同的票"。"不，不，他不会有任何分量，"哈塞特称。"只有当他的意见 正确、且基于数据时，才有分量。" 哈塞特是在回应关于特朗普上周五言论的提问。特朗普当时表示，他应该能够就美联储设定的利率提出 建议。 特朗普及其高级顾问数月来一直在敦促美联储主席杰伊.鲍威尔降低利率，同时也在权衡他自己选择接 替鲍威尔的人选——后者将于明年5月结束任期。 哈塞特被视为这一职位的热门人选，不过特朗普上周也与前美联储理事凯文.沃什会面。特朗普在 ...

美国国家经济委员会主席凯文·哈塞特表示，如果他被选中领导美联储，他会考虑总统特朗普的政策意 见，总统"对于我们应该做什么，有着非常坚定和充分的看法"。"但最终，美联储的职责是保持独立， 并与理事会和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的成员们合作，就利率的定位达成集体共识。"哈塞特 称，总统的意见将"没有分量"，如果该意见并非基于数据，决策者可以自由拒绝它，并"以不同的方式 投票"。哈塞特回应有关特朗普上周五的言论——即他应该能够对美联储设定的利率提出建议——的提 问。 ...

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特：如果沃什出任美联储主席，希望他能（在利率政策问题 上）与总统特朗普对话。经济数据表明，美国CPI朝着美联储2%目标靠拢。美联储的职责是保持独立。 我们不会有10月家庭（就业）调查。 ...