首先通胀会侵蚀纸币储蓄的价值，促使更多人投向白银等有形资产。而地缘政治不确定性以及最新升级的美联储独立性担忧的局面，可能会为白银价格进一 步冲高创造必要条件。 周三，今年势如破竹的白银期货价格再次大涨，连续攻克90-93共四个整数关口。过去五年间，白银价格稳步攀升，2025年开启的这轮涨势尤为引人注目， 区间累计涨幅已超过200%。 在持续通胀、美元走弱、各国央行需求上升以及投资者在经济不确定性中寻求避险资产等多重因素的共同作用下，大量资金 正涌入白银市场。那么，白银 何时可以跨越近在咫尺的100美元呢？ 历史性超越 据企业市值数据平台companiesmarketcap 显示，持续创下历史新高的白银，在周三市值突破5万亿美元，超过英伟达成功跻身全球价值第二高的资产，仅次 于黄金。 此前，英伟达凭借人工智能概念股热潮，一直在全球金融市场占据领先地位。但长期被视为传统避险资产的白银，依托贵金属属性与工业实用价值的双重加 持，上演了一场出人意料的逆袭。 从历史上看，黄金一直是这两种贵金属中价值更高的品种，在金融与贸易领域常被奉为 "金本位"的标杆。然而，随着市场趋势与工业需求的转变，白银的 价值正在被挖掘。 不过 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US economic data shows a continued slowdown, with concerns about the Fed's independence increasing. Key events such as the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs, US CPI data, new Fed chair nomination, and Q4 GDP data should be closely monitored [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve moderately, with a focus on the investment side. Policies are being implemented, and the central bank is increasing liquidity through a 300 - billion - yuan net injection of 6 - month repos [7]. - Asset views: Recommend long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and gold on a monthly basis. Treat silver as a short - term standard allocation and consider overweighting it after volatility stabilizes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary 3.1.1 Index Futures and Related Financial Instruments - Stock index futures: CSI 300 futures closed at 4740 with a daily decline of 0.44%, SSE 50 futures at 3114 with a daily decline of 0.57%, CSI 500 futures at 8197.8 with a daily increase of 0.66%, and CSI 1000 futures at 8156 with a daily increase of 0.09% [2]. - Bond futures: 2 - year bond futures closed at 102.334 with no daily change, 5 - year at 105.655 with a daily increase of 0.04%, 10 - year at 107.93 with a daily increase of 0.07%, and 30 - year at 111.27 with a daily decline of 0.03% [2]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was at 99.1842 with a daily increase of 0.29%, and the US dollar mid - price was 6.9777 with a 46 - pip increase [2]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5668% with a 1.94 - bp increase, the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.8494% with a 0.25 - bp decrease, and the 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.18% with a 1 - bp decrease [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Indexes - Computer, comprehensive finance, and media industries showed significant monthly increases of 17.81%, 6.64%, and 25.84% respectively, while banking and real estate industries had monthly decreases of 2.68% and 2.91% respectively [4]. 3.1.3 Domestic Commodities - Precious metals: Gold had a daily increase of 1.29% and a monthly increase of 6.51%, silver had a daily increase of 1.53% and a monthly increase of 2.54% [5]. - Energy and chemicals: Fuel oil had a daily increase of 5.1%, low - sulfur fuel oil had a daily increase of 6.15%, and crude oil had a daily increase of 0.38% [5]. - Non - ferrous metals: Stainless steel had a daily increase of 0.93%, tin had a daily increase of 8.84% [5]. 3.1.4 Overseas Commodities - Crude oil: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 61.1 with a daily increase of 2.69%, and ICE Brent crude oil was at 65.46 with a daily increase of 2.49% [6]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold was at 4594.4 with a daily decline of 0.44%, and COMEX silver was at 86.86 with a daily increase of 2.08% [6]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans were at 1039 with a daily decline of 0.95%, and CBOT corn was at 420.25 with a daily decline of 0.3% [6]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Views 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upward, awaiting incremental funds. Stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to fluctuate, with long - end sentiment remaining weak [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Both gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upward, influenced by factors such as US fundamentals, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - The container shipping route to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with attention on 2026 shipping company resumption plans, year - end long - term contract freight rates, and pre - Spring Festival cargo volume [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products, iron ore, and other related products are expected to fluctuate, with attention on factors such as special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron ore production and transportation [9]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper, aluminum, tin, and other non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors for each metal, such as supply disruptions and policy changes [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with geopolitical factors and raw material prices being important influencing factors. Asphalt is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Some agricultural products such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and cotton are expected to fluctuate upward, while sugar is expected to fluctuate downward [11].

美联储发布褐皮书。 当地时间1月14日（周三），美股三大指数录得连续第二个交易日下滑。交易员正在消化最新一批银行企业财报。 截至收盘，道指跌42.36点，跌幅为0.09%，报49149.63点；纳指跌238.12点，跌幅为1.00%，报23471.75点；标普500指数跌37.14点，跌幅为0.53%，报 6926.60点。 美联储发布经济状况"褐皮书" 据央视新闻，当地时间1月14日，美联储发布全国经济形势调查报告（也称"褐皮书"）。 褐皮书显示，在12个联邦储备区中，有8个地区的整体经济活动以轻微至温和的速度增长，3个地区报告没有变化，1个地区报告温和下降。这比过去三个 报告周期有所改善，此前大多数地区报告经济活动变化不大。褐皮书显示，对未来活动的展望略显乐观，多数地区预计未来数月将实现小幅至适度增长。 "假设到了今年下半年，情况会怎样？如果有了新的美联储主席，也许美联储应该加息，或者肯定不应该降息，因为经济已经趋于平稳，而通胀又回升 了。"格拉夫说，"交易员会对此感到担忧。" 科技股拖累大盘 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块六涨五跌。能源板块和必需消费品板块分别以2.26%和1.18%的涨幅领涨，非必 ...

Market - US stock market experienced a decline for the second consecutive day, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all falling, primarily driven by poor performance in technology stocks, particularly chip stocks like Nvidia, which dropped due to export restrictions [2] - Bank stocks also struggled, with Wells Fargo's revenue falling short of expectations, while Bank of America and Citigroup exceeded expectations but could not support the high market levels. The banking sector faced additional pressure from Trump's call for credit card interest rate reforms [2] - Despite strong PPI and retail sales data, the market remained low due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks, particularly related to Iran [2] Company - Tesla announced it will stop selling its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software at a fixed price and will instead offer it as a monthly subscription service starting at $99, leading to a 1.79% drop in its stock price [3][33] - Cerebras secured a significant contract with OpenAI worth over $10 billion, committing to provide 750 MW of computing power by 2028, which will help reduce its reliance on a single customer [32] - Wells Fargo reported profits below expectations, with a significant $612 million spent on severance costs, leading to its stock experiencing the largest intraday drop in six months [40] - Bank of America reported a 23% increase in stock trading revenue to $2.02 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, but concerns over costs led to a 5% drop in its stock price [41] - Boeing announced it received 1,173 net orders in 2025, surpassing Airbus, although its stock fell 1.7% in early trading [42]

Group 1 - Metal prices continue to rise strongly, with gold, silver, copper, and tin reaching historical highs, and spot silver briefly exceeding $92 per ounce, marking a more than 6% increase [1][3] - Spot silver price reached a peak of $92.26 per ounce during the day, with a maximum increase of over $5, before retracting to around $91.60, resulting in a daily increase of approximately 5.5% [1] Group 2 - The rise in silver prices is primarily driven by market speculation on declining U.S. interest rates, alongside renewed criticism of the Federal Reserve by the Trump administration and escalating geopolitical tensions [3] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified following a criminal investigation into Chairman Powell, which analysts believe could further undermine the central bank's independence and increase uncertainty in monetary policy [3] - The ongoing worries about the U.S. dollar, budget deficits, and geopolitical tensions, combined with expectations of lower interest rates and growing industrial demand for silver, are seen as supportive factors for precious metals [4]

多位美联储地区联储主席最近重申年内温和降息的可能性，同时强调央行独立性对维持物价稳定不可或 缺。费城联储主席保尔森（Anna Paulson）和芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）分别阐述了 对经济前景和货币政策的看法，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）明确主张本月末的货 币政策会议应维持利率不变。 美东时间14日周三，保尔森在费城大区商会活动上重申，如果通胀降温且劳动力市场企稳，美联储可能 今年晚些时候进一步小幅降息。这与她本月初的表态基本一致。古尔斯比在接受媒体采访时为美联储的 独立性辩护，称"美联储的独立性对这个国家的长期通胀率至关重要"。卡什卡利强调，无论下任美联储 主席是谁，联储的政策必须基于数据而非政治指令，集体决策机制是抵御干预的防线。 保尔森和卡什卡利均拥有2026年美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议的投票权，古尔斯比拥有2025年的会 议投票权。他们的表态凸显了，面临特朗普政府的大幅降息压力，美联储的官员们仍坚持基于经济数据 而非政治偏好制定利率政策的立场。目前市场普遍预期，美联储1月27日至28日的FOMC会议将决定按 兵不动、暂停降息。 保尔森重 ...

财经媒体援引消息称，财政部长贝森特已提醒特朗普，这调查弄得乌烟瘴气，可能让金融市场吃亏。而在交易层面，虽然长期利率上去了，整体市场反应 并无恐慌，黄金创了新高，美元稍弱，美国三大股指反而在零售股和科技股的带动下刷了收盘纪录。有人分析，鲍威尔的反击和前任的声援，让参议院的 反弹更有底气，这也给市场吃了颗定心丸。说真话，投资者有时候就是这么看情绪和姿态。 值得一提的是，鲍威尔是2017年底被特朗普提名，次年初获参议院确认的。他的主席任期到今年五月结束，但按程序，他在2028年前无需离开理事会。外 界不少人觉得，这场风波反倒可能增加他继续留在美联储的可能性。在特朗普打算撤掉另一位理事丽莎·库克的案子进入最高法院辩论前两周，鲍威尔就 碰上了刑事起诉的威胁。过去，他在公开场合很少和特朗普政府对着干，多数共和党议员也保持克制。市场则在默默跟拍这场二任期里的权力博弈。 鲍威尔这次的表态很尖锐，他说要把这前所未有的调查放在政府施压降息的大背景下这跟之前翻新工程的证词没关联，也是为了争夺美联储发声权的手 段。他承认法律的约束力，但指出降息和货币政策方向必须基于公众利益，而不是总统的喜好。特朗普接受采访时称自己毫不知情，不过还是 ...

一场突如其来的刑事调查，让美联储主席鲍威尔成为了美国历史上首位在任期间遭到刑事调查的美联储掌门人。 这场风波不仅在美国国内引发震荡，更引 发了全球央行界的集体关切。 此次刑事调查并非孤立事件。 自特朗普2025年再次就任总统以来，白宫与美联储的关系持续紧张。 特朗普多次批评鲍威尔不愿大幅降息，并以多种方式施 压，屡次要求其辞职。 2025年8月25日，特朗普以"涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈"为由将美联储理事丽莎·库克免职，这是其对美联储独立性的一次直接挑战。 2026年1月9日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室向美联储送达了大陪审团传票，正式对鲍威尔展开刑事调查。 调查焦点集中在美联储总部马里纳·埃克 尔斯大楼的翻修项目，以及鲍威尔2025年6月就该项目向国会所作证词是否属实。 这座建于1930年代的大楼自落成以来从未进行过全面翻新，存在石棉和铅污染等问题。 翻修项目自2022年启动，预计2027年完工，但预算已从最初的19亿 美元升至近25亿美元，超支约32%。 在2025年6月的国会听证会上，鲍威尔坚决否认了"豪华装修"的指控，他澄清2021年的提案中确实包含私人电梯、高层决策者私人餐厅等内容，但这些已在 后续方案中 ...

"美联储的独立性对这个国家的长期通胀率而言再重要不过了，"古尔斯比周三接受NPR采访时表示。 "在任何中央银行不独立的地方，通胀都会卷土重来，"古尔斯比在被问及特朗普政府对美联储主席施压 时表示。"我们过去五年一直在努力压低通胀，这并不容易。如果你攻击美联储的独立性，只会让问题 更加严重。" 在美国司法部因鲍威尔去年在国会作证时的相关言论向美联储发出传票后，美联储官员和全球各地的经 济政策制定者本周纷纷声援美国央行。 鲍威尔周日发表声明谴责这一行动，并表示"刑事指控威胁实则源于美联储基于对公众利益的最佳评估 来设定利率，而非迎合总统的个人偏好"。 芝加哥联储行长古尔斯比为央行独立性辩护，认为这对实现低且稳定的价格是必要的。 在美国司法部因鲍威尔去年在国会作证时的相关言论向美联储发出传票后，美联储官员和全球各地的经 济政策制定者本周纷纷声援美国央行。 鲍威尔周日发表声明谴责这一行动，并表示"刑事指控威胁实则源于美联储基于对公众利益的最佳评估 来设定利率，而非迎合总统的个人偏好"。 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长卡什卡利表示认同。他表示："过去一年来的局势升级实际上是关乎货 币政策。" 古尔斯比在NPR节目中称赞了 ...

日本央行并未参与的这份联合声明，签署人包括欧洲中央银行行长以及英国、加拿大、瑞典、丹麦、瑞 士、澳大利亚、韩国和巴西的央行行长。这份罕见的声明强调，维护美联储的独立性"至关重要"，并表 示"我们与美联储及其主席鲍威尔完全团结在一起"。 据路透社14日报道，美国联邦检察官对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查后，英国、加拿大等多国央行行 长13日发表联合声明声援鲍威尔，但日本央行并未参与其中，日本政府对此拒绝置评。 报道称，在记者会上被问及央行独立性的重要性时，木原稔表示，日本政府认为宏观经济政策的最终责 任在于政府。他还称，日本法律规定，货币政策属于整体经济政策的一部分，因此日本央行需要与政府 保持密切协调和充分沟通。 日本内阁官房长官木原稔14日在记者会上表示："此事涉及日本央行自身的判断，因此政府不予置评。" 美国《纽约时报》11日报道称，美国联邦检察官已对鲍威尔展开刑事调查，主要涉及美联储办公大楼翻 修项目，以及鲍威尔是否向国会作虚假陈述。对此，美联储11日罕见发布视频声明，鲍威尔表示相关指 控都是"借口"，自己被调查的原因其实是美联储"没有遵从总统意愿"设定利率。美联社说，这一事态发 展重新引发外界对美联储独 ...