1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - policies, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. Different sectors show various trends. Some sectors are expected to be volatile, while others may have specific upward or downward trends based on their unique fundamentals [2][4][5] - In the commodities market, factors such as raw material supply, inventory levels, and downstream demand play crucial roles in determining price movements. For example, in the metals market, the supply of raw materials like nickel and copper, and the demand from industries such as stainless - steel production and electronics, affect prices [20][23][40] - In the financial market, stock index futures and bond futures are affected by domestic and international news, economic data, and policy orientations. For instance, A - share market sentiment is influenced by domestic economic development and overseas trade policies [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by approaching delivery, the price rose at the end of the session. The cost is supported by raw material news, but supply is abundant and demand is weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 15,000 [2][46] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the spot price is under pressure. The industry operating rate has slightly increased, with high inventory and weak demand [3][111] - **Coking Coal**: The price of coal in Shanxi has mostly risen, while Mongolian coal has fallen from its high. The market has over - anticipated the rise. It is expected to be bearish and volatile, with the reference range of 1,000 - 1,200 [4][64] - **Palm Oil**: It leads the rise in the oil and fat sector, with the potential to break through the 9,000 mark. The production in Malaysia has decreased seasonally, and exports have increased [5][87] - **Gold**: Driven by geopolitical conflicts, the safe - haven sentiment boosts the gold price. It is recommended to buy on dips above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money call options [6][17] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market had a weak rebound with reduced trading volume. The semiconductor sector was hot. It is expected to enter a volatile trend, and investors are advised to control risks and reduce long positions [7][8][9] - **Bond Futures**: The money market is relatively loose, and long - term bond futures have strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and not to chase high prices [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The prices of precious metals were affected by Trump's tariff suspension. Gold closed higher, while silver, platinum, and palladium had different trends. In the future, gold is expected to be strongly volatile, silver may be volatile at a high level, and platinum and palladium will follow gold and be volatile with a narrowing range [14][17][18] 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated and adjusted, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market speculation sentiment has eased, and the price may gradually return to fundamental pricing [19][23] - **Alumina**: The spot market is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate widely around the cash cost line, with the reference range of 2,600 - 2,900 [24][26] - **Aluminum**: The market is in a high - level volatile pattern. The macro and policy expectations are strong, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to be volatile at a high level, with the reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 [27][29] - **Zinc**: The price oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports the price, but the demand is suppressed. It is expected to be volatile, and investors can hold long positions at low prices in the long - term [32][36] - **Tin**: The price fluctuated widely. The supply has increased, and the demand from the welding industry is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and hold a long - term low - buying attitude [36][40] - **Nickel**: The impact of news has been digested, and the price oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 138,000 - 148,000 [40][43] - **Stainless Steel**: Similar to the daily selection, it is affected by delivery and cost - demand game, and is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [43][46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - side disturbance expectation has risen again, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and buy on dips in the medium - term [47][50] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price is weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated. It is expected to be volatile, and investors should pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [54][56] 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate within a range. The reference ranges for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3,050 - 3,250 and 3,200 - 3,350 respectively [57][59] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in the off - season, and the port inventory is accumulating. The price is under pressure, and investors can short at around 800 [60][61] - **Coking Coal**: Similar to the daily selection, the spot is strong before the Spring Festival, but the market has over - anticipated the rise. It is expected to be bearish and volatile [62][64] - **Coke**: The mainstream coke enterprises have started to raise prices, but the market has over - anticipated. It is expected to be bearish and volatile, with the reference range of 1,600 - 1,800 [65][67] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 5,300 - 5,800 [68][69] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese ore supports the cost, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 5,600 - 6,000 [70][72] 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The U.S. soybean market is volatile, and the bottom of soybean meal is strongly supported. The domestic supply is loose, but the downside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile [73][75] - **Live Pigs**: The slaughter pressure has increased, and it is difficult for the white - strip pork price to rise. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [76][77] - **Corn**: There are both support and pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' selling mentality and policy release [78][79] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is oscillating, and the domestic sugar market is in the late stage of stockpiling. The sugar price is expected to be weakly volatile at a low level [80] - **Cotton**: The U.S. cotton is stable, and the domestic cotton price is adjusting. It is expected to continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to the support at around 14,400 - 14,500 [82][83] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable, and the market is moving normally. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [85] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil leads the rise, with the potential to break through 9,000. Soybean oil may have a callback, and rapeseed oil is expected to be narrowly volatile [86][88] - **Jujubes**: The consumption drive is weak, and the futures price has rebounded at a low level. The market is expected to run at a low level [89][90] - **Apples**: Supported by low inventory, the price has stopped falling and stabilized. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory situation after the Spring Festival [91][92] 3.3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The short - term supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term and may be tight in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips [93] - **PTA**: There is a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation, and the driving force before the Spring Festival is limited. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate within the range of 4,900 - 5,300 [94][95] - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate. The processing fee can be shorted at a high level [97] - **Bottle - grade PET**: Multiple devices are under maintenance, and the factory is reducing inventory. The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [98][99] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a seasonal inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short the 5 - 9 spread and sell call options [100][101] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has improved, but the high inventory restricts the driving force. It is recommended to short the BZ03 contract and narrow the EB - BZ spread [102][103] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, but the high valuation limits the rebound space. It is recommended to short the EB03 contract and narrow the processing fee [104][106] - **LLDPE**: The upstream has reduced the price to sell, and the transaction has improved. It is recommended to wait and see [107] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is weakly volatile. It is recommended to hold the PDH profit expansion position [107][108] - **Methanol**: The basis has strengthened, and the price is narrowly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [108] - **Caustic Soda**: Similar to the daily selection, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is under pressure [109][111] - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, but the downside space is limited [112][113] - **Urea**: The inventory has fallen below one million tons, and the demand has recovered. The price is expected to be widely volatile, and the main contract reference range is 1,740 - 1,790 [114][115] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and short positions can be held [116][119] - **Glass**: The supply and demand are both weak in the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short positions can be held [116][120] - **Natural Rubber**: Thailand is entering the production - reduction period, and the raw material price has rebounded. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500. It is recommended to wait and see [120][122] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is strong, and the BR is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread expansion opportunity between BR2603 and NR2603 [124][125][126]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a decrease in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to 198,000, the lowest level since November 2025, which is below market expectations, indicating a strong labor market [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, marking a significant drop and the lowest level since November 2025 [1] - This decline in jobless claims, combined with hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, has reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed [1] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced tariffs on all goods exported to the U.S. from eight European countries starting February 1 due to Greenland-related issues, prompting strong responses from several European nations [1] - The geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly in the context of resource competition and military actions [1] Market Implications - The combination of reduced interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions is expected to lead to an increase in the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver [1] - The independence of the Federal Reserve may be questioned due to the upcoming appointment of a new chair and ongoing investigations into current chair Powell, potentially influencing market expectations for rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged dramatically, reaching a record high of $4,640 per ounce in early 2026, driven by various geopolitical and economic factors, benefiting upstream gold mining companies significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - In 2025, the international gold price increased by nearly 70%, marking the largest annual increase since the 1979 oil crisis, starting from around $2,600 per ounce and nearing $4,600 by year-end [3]. - The domestic gold jewelry price rose from approximately 800 yuan per gram to around 1,360 yuan per gram due to the soaring gold prices [3]. - The global central banks purchased a net total of 297 tons of gold from early 2025 to the end of November, providing long-term support for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Mining Companies' Performance - Zijin Mining Group expects a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a nearly 60% increase, with gold production reaching about 90 tons [1]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining anticipates a net profit of 3 to 3.2 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 70% to 81% [3]. - Shandong Gold reported a revenue of 83.78 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.96 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 91.5% [4]. - Zhongjin Gold's net profit for the first three quarters reached 4.214 billion yuan, up 60.92% year-on-year, slightly surpassing Shandong Gold [4]. - Zijin Mining's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 254.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan, a 55.45% increase year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Cost and Market Dynamics - The unit sales cost for gold mining companies has increased due to rising gold prices and other factors, although some companies like Chaojin Gold have managed to reduce costs through product structure adjustments [5]. - Retail companies in the gold jewelry sector are facing challenges, with brands like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Dazheng reporting revenue declines of 8.71% and 37.35%, respectively [7]. - The increase in gold prices has also positively impacted other precious metals, with silver and platinum prices rising over 140% in 2025 [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions remain optimistic about future gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting a rise to approximately $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, and JPMorgan forecasting a potential peak of $6,000 per ounce [7]. - The global gold ETF assets reached a record high of $472 billion by the end of Q3 2025, indicating strong investment demand [8]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the U.S. debt situation are expected to continue supporting gold prices in the long term [11].

当前，美欧关系趋紧引发对潜在贸易战的担忧，持续影响投资者对这一贵金属的避险需求。金价在2025 年初始于每盎司2640美元左右，至2025年4月已攀升至3200美元。随后价格保持平稳直至8月底，继而再 度上扬，并在10月中旬突破4300美元关口。 目前全球主要黄金生产国包括中国、澳大利亚、美国、南非、秘鲁、俄罗斯和印度尼西亚。 据"加纳网"1月20日报道，受地缘政治风险及美联储降息预期影响，国际黄金价格在2026年开年持续走 强，并于1月20日突破每盎司4700美元，创历史新高。 2026年前20个交易日，黄金涨幅已达9.5%。自特朗普一年前开启第二任期以来，金价累计上涨超过 70%。同期，白银在2026年前两周上涨约20%，收益表现显著优于往年。 （原标题：金价飙升至历史新高，突破每盎司4700美元） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged to historical highs, driven by three main factors: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and rising geopolitical risks [3][4][5] Group 2 - The first driving force is the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which diminishes the attractiveness of the dollar and leads to a natural flow of funds into gold as a risk-averse asset [3] - The second driving force is the sustained high levels of gold purchases by central banks over the past two years, treating gold as a strategic reserve, which supports the market and instills confidence [4] - The third driving force is the escalation of geopolitical risks, which heightens uncertainty and boosts safe-haven sentiment, making gold a preferred asset during unstable times [5] Group 3 - Historical patterns indicate that greater risks lead to stronger gold performance, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, where economic turmoil and liquidity easing resulted in significant gold price increases [7] Group 4 - Ordinary investors have three main ways to participate in the gold market: bank gold accumulation, which has lower fees and moderate liquidity; gold ETFs, which are cost-effective and highly liquid; and physical gold bars, which have slightly higher premiums and lower liquidity [9] Group 5 - Practical advice for entering the gold market includes building positions gradually due to price fluctuations, setting profit-taking and stop-loss levels, and maintaining a long-term perspective as gold is more suitable for asset allocation rather than short-term trading [11]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term safe - haven situation has changed with the decline of trade - war safe - haven demand and the rise of geopolitical risks. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts. [1] - The geopolitical risks have increased due to Trump's statement on the Greenland issue and the strong responses from European countries. [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, the US December CPI increase met expectations, but household food and rent expenditures rose. The US December employment growth almost stagnated, and the unemployment rate decline alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. The market expects the Fed not to cut interest rates in January 2026 with a probability of around 95%, and the next possible rate cut may be in June. [1] - Regarding the commodity attribute, the Polish central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. Silver is supported by tight supply. Platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show short - term volatile strength, medium - term high - level volatility, and long - term step - up trends. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - Price: Comex gold active contract closed at $4769.10 per ounce, up 3.65% from the previous day and 3.80% from the previous week. London gold was at $4747.80 per ounce, up 1.73% from the previous day and 2.70% from the previous week. [2] - Position and Inventory: Comex gold position was 527,455 hands, up 9.46% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory was 8598 tons, unchanged from the previous week. [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [4] - Price: Comex silver active contract closed at $89.95 per ounce, up 5.63% from the previous week. London silver was at $93.01 per ounce, up 2.43% from the previous day and 10.63% from the previous week. [4] - Position and Inventory: Comex silver position was 151,513 hands, down 1.13% from the previous week. The total visible inventory was 42,214 tons, down 0.90% from the previous week. [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] - Price: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down 2.03% from the previous day but up 17.68% from the previous week. The platinum main contract on the GQEX closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 4.46% from the previous day and 26.60% from the previous week. [7] - Position and Inventory: NYMEX platinum active contract position was 18,095 hands, down 32.56% from the previous day and 21.89% from the previous week. NYMEX platinum total inventory was 21 tons, up 4.80% from the previous week. [7] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [10] - Price: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821.00 per ounce, down 7.28% from the previous day but up 5.57% from the previous week. The palladium main contract on the GQEX closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 8.54% from the previous day but up 11.01% from the previous week. [10] - Position and Inventory: NYMEX palladium active contract position was 21,860 hands, up 0.86% from the previous day and 2.30% from the previous week. NYMEX palladium total inventory was 6 tons, up 3.49% from the previous week. [10] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Fed Indicators: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6632.72 billion, up 0.00% from the previous value. [11] - US Economic Indicators: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 2.30%, up 0.30% from the previous value; annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is 4.30%, up 0.50% from the previous value. [11] - Geopolitical and Market Indicators: The geopolitical risk index is 295.76, up 62.59% from the previous day and 86.38% from the previous week. The VIX index is 20.09, up 6.63% from the previous day and 25.72% from the previous week. [13]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1092.300 | 32.1↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千 克） | 23131 | +69.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 207,266.00 | +21302.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 46,814.00 | -3594.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | | 350,273.00 +181809.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 870,541.00 | +154609.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 99990 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 600,779 | -17803↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1087.81 | 31.38↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 22,850.00 | -496.00↓ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -4.49 | -0.76↓ 沪银主 ...

东证衍生品研究院贵金属研究员徐颖介绍，美国为霸占格陵兰岛发出的关税威胁，导致美欧关系紧张，加之丹麦一家养老基金宣布将退出美债市场(理由 是美元信用受损)，导致市场风险偏好显著下降——美国股市、债市及汇市遭遇重挫，金价则强势上涨。"这既源于市场避险需求的提振，也反映出市场对 美元的信任度进一步降低。"她说。 据期货日报记者了解，今日金价创新高主要是受地缘局势紧张加剧、市场避险情绪高涨的影响。 1月21日，伦敦金价格开盘后一路走高，一度触及4888.17美元/盎司，再创新高，随后直线下跌。与此同时，当日沪金期货主力合约2604在突破1100元/克 后也开始回落，收盘报1092.3元/克。 刚刚，金价创新高后直线下跌。 需要注意的是，上海期货交易所20日晚间发布公告，调整相关期货合约的交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。其中，在贵金属方面，黄金期货2602、2603、 2604合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为16%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为17%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为18%；黄金期货2606、2608、2610、2612、 2702合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为15%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为16%，一般持仓交易保证金 ...

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold, platinum, and silver, are experiencing significant price increases, with gold surpassing $4800 per ounce and platinum reaching $2500 per ounce, driven by rising market demand and geopolitical tensions [1][2][4] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have risen approximately 12% year-to-date, with spot gold currently at $4828.171 per ounce and COMEX futures at $4830.6 per ounce [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened market anxiety regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, as well as lower-than-expected inflation data, which has led to speculation about potential interest rate cuts [2][3] - The recent geopolitical developments, including tariffs announced by Trump, have further escalated market risk aversion, providing additional support for gold prices [2][4] Group 2: Platinum and Silver Market Dynamics - Platinum has also reached a historical high, with prices peaking at $2515.1 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of nearly 20% [1] - Silver prices have surged over 30% this year, with recent highs of $95.78 per ounce, driven by strong industrial demand and supply constraints [1][5] - The demand for silver and platinum is bolstered by their dual roles in finance and industry, with supply shortages and robust industrial applications, particularly in solar energy and automotive sectors, contributing to price stability [5] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to approach precious metal investments with caution, recognizing the potential for short-term volatility despite long-term structural support for prices [3][4] - The current market environment suggests that while gold and silver have reached historical highs, the cost-effectiveness of chasing these prices may be diminishing, necessitating a strategic approach to asset allocation [3][4] - The ongoing support from gold ETFs and central bank purchases is expected to provide a solid foundation for gold prices in the medium term, with $4800 becoming a critical support level [4]

3. 长期结构性利好 · "去美元化"与央行购金：全球央行持续的购金行为，是金价长期上涨的坚实基础。即将签署的港沪跨境黄金清算协议，将进一步增强黄 金的金融抵押品属性，契合全球"去美元化"需求。 今天黄金市场在多重因素的强力助推下，价格继续飙升。你提到的伦敦金最高触及4888美元/盎司，已突破了重要的心理关口，市场情绪极 为高涨。 金价狂飙几大因素驱动： 1. 地缘政治与贸易风险急剧升温 这是最核心的短期驱动力。特朗普政府围绕格陵兰岛问题对欧洲多国发出关税威胁，导致跨大西洋贸易紧张局势骤然升级。这种"卖出美 国"的交易模式，使得资金从美元、美股、美债中流出，疯狂涌入黄金寻求避险。 2. 宏观经济与政策不确定性 · 美联储独立性担忧：市场对美联储独立性的持续讨论，削弱了美元资产的稳定性预期。 · 降息预期支撑：尽管短期数据波动，但市场对美联储年内降息的预期依然稳固，为金价提供了中期支撑。 · 市场情绪狂热：金银价格同步创历史新高，显示贵金属市场整体进入加速上行阶段。 信号解读 目前价格持续刷新历史高点，所有周期均线呈强多头排列，上升趋势无可争议，但是短期价格已大幅偏离均线，RSI等动量指标处于极端 超买区域。价 ...