Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility, with prices recently surpassing $80 per ounce, making it the third-largest asset globally, only behind gold and NVIDIA [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged nearly 180% this year, driven by supply shortages, strong industrial demand, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][6]. - The recent price fluctuations were attributed to traders taking profits after a record surge, leading to a sharp decline from a peak of over $83 to below $75 within a single day [1][3]. Group 2: Market Capitalization - As of now, silver's market capitalization stands at $4.485 trillion, surpassing Apple and ranking third among all assets, while gold leads with $31.719 trillion and NVIDIA follows with $4.638 trillion [4][5]. - The rapid ascent of silver's market cap occurred within approximately ten days, during which it overtook Google [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market experts suggest that if the current upward momentum continues, silver could potentially surpass NVIDIA to become the second-largest asset globally [6]. - Analysts are divided on silver's future price trajectory, with some optimistic about a potential rise above $100 next year, while others warn of a looming correction, predicting a drop to around $42 by the end of next year [6].

来源：领峰贵金属 一、基本面： 黄金多头浪延续攻击到历史高位4545.0美金附近，因市场对2026年美联储降息预期及地缘政治局势加剧 共同推动黄金多头上涨。短线市场聚焦俄乌谈判结果，若出现利好局面，黄金短线恐下跌调整。 当地时间12月28日下午，美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基在美国佛罗里达州海湖庄园举行会晤。 特朗普在会后表示，会谈取得多项进展，但俄乌"和平计划"中关键的领土问题尚未达成一致；在安全保 障议题上，泽连斯基称美乌已100%达成一致，特朗普则表示双方共识度约为95%。对于谈判时间表， 特朗普指出若进展顺利可能"几周内就会有结果"，若遇阻力则可能延迟甚至无法达成协议。特朗普强调 当前谈判是"极其复杂、细节密集的"，但他对最终达成协议持谨慎乐观态度。此次会晤凸显了俄乌冲突 调解进程中领土问题的敏感性，以及各方在安全保障机制建设上的积极进展。 12月28日，俄国家杜马国际事务委员会主席斯卢茨基在接受媒体采访时表示，俄美两国在原则上已达成 共识，将举行俄罗斯国家杜马议员和美国国会议员的会见，但会谈地点和时间目前尚未确定。斯卢茨基 表示，本次会见不是形式上的为了会见而举行的，而是需要成果，是为了国家利益 ...

周一(12月29日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格震荡走低，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4515.89美元/盎司，下跌 0.36%，最高触及4548.92美元/盎司，最低下探4471.99美元/盎司。黄金短期主要是避险情绪支撑之下， 金价多头有望继续走强，不过在历史新高附近，波动率有所增加，市场对于美联储降息预期同样支撑金 价，在美元指数没有加速下行之前，金价大概率维持震荡。 特朗普在会谈结束后表示："我认为我们确实离(达成协议)近了很多，也许非常接近了。"泽连斯基在讲 话中称此次和平谈判是一次"真正伟大的讨论"，其中美乌安全保障条款已"100%达成一致"，不过特朗 普在被问及该部分提案时给出了略为保守的评估。 市场普遍认为，金价下行空间相对有限，主要原因在于对美联储2026年进一步降息的预期依然存在。利 率下降将降低持有黄金的机会成本，有利于这种无息资产的估值。 高盛对黄金前景尤为乐观，预计2026年第四季度现货黄金价格将达到4900美元/盎司，Peter Grant更是大 胆预测2026年上半年可能突破5000美元。 上周黄金市场周初开盘在4339.8的位置后行情先回落，周线最低给到了4337.2的位置后行情强势震荡拉 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions, weak dollar performance, and year-end liquidity issues [2][3][4]. Group 1: Silver Price Movements - On December 29, spot silver prices opened rapidly, breaking through $80 per ounce and peaking at $83 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 5% and a cumulative annual increase of $52 [1]. - Following this peak, silver prices quickly retreated, with a maximum drop of over $6 within 30 minutes, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $9, ultimately settling at $76.5 per ounce, reflecting a daily decrease of over 3% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - Geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar have contributed to a strong demand for precious metals, maintaining their historical upward trend as year-end liquidity remains thin [3]. - Analysts from UBS have indicated that precious metal prices are currently at high levels, with increased short-term trading risks as investors may seek to take profits [3]. - The demand for safe-haven assets remains robust, supporting investment in gold and silver, while thin market liquidity amplifies price volatility [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - A significant amount of liquid silver is stored in New York, awaiting results from a key U.S. Department of Commerce investigation regarding mineral imports, which could lead to adjustments in silver tariffs and other trade restrictions [3]. - Commodity analyst Manav Modi noted that the high volume of paper silver trading requires physical silver support, and current physical silver supply is insufficient to meet demand, impacting paper trading [3]. Group 4: Industrial Demand and Future Outlook - Silver prices are influenced by its industrial applications, including electrification, solar panels, electric vehicles, and data centers, with demand in these sectors driving inventory depletion [4]. - A substantial influx of capital into the precious metals market has led to rising silver prices, supported by expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [4]. - The primary driver of recent silver price increases is a structural supply-demand imbalance, with physical silver in short supply prompting concentrated market purchases [4]. Group 5: Investor Sentiment - According to a Kitco News annual silver survey, a majority of retail traders are optimistic about silver's performance in 2026, with expectations for further price increases [4]. - Among surveyed retail traders, 57% anticipate silver prices will exceed $100 per ounce in 2026 [5]. - Additionally, 27% expect prices to range between $80 and $100 per ounce, while 11% predict a high of $60 to $80 per ounce [6]. - A small minority, 5%, believe prices will retreat to the $40 to $60 per ounce range seen in late 2025 [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the index and various stocks experiencing notable gains, particularly in silver and copper prices reaching historical highs [1][2]. - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) increased by 0.56%, with key stocks such as Silver Holdings (601212) up by 10.05% and Jiangxi Copper (600362) up by 4.68% [1]. - The surge in precious metals, especially silver, is attributed to lower-than-expected inflation data, which has fueled expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 52.34% of the index, with major players including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [3]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index and includes 50 prominent securities from the sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry [2][4].

Price Movement Core Reasons - Geopolitical risks have decreased as Trump stated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is "close to reaching an agreement," which weakened safe-haven sentiment and triggered long position sell-offs [3] - Insufficient liquidity and profit-taking were highlighted by UBS, warning that the current rally is driven by liquidity shortages and carries a risk of rapid decline; some investors opted to cash out at high levels before the Christmas holiday [3] - Technical breakdown signals were noted, with $4500 being a critical support level; breaking below this triggered programmatic selling, with short-term support shifting to the $4470-$4480 range [3] Market Reactions and Divergent Views - The bullish logic remains unchanged due to long-term support factors such as a 65.3% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 2026, global central bank gold purchases (net purchases of 902 tons in the first three quarters), and a restructuring of the dollar credit system [4] - Institutional target prices are high, with Goldman Sachs projecting $4900 and JPMorgan forecasting $5055, suggesting that the current pullback is an opportunity to buy [5] Cautionary Signals - Technical indicators are overbought, with RSI reaching 74-80; Citigroup warns of a potential short-term pullback to $4300-$4400 [6] - Historical lessons indicate that gold prices experienced two significant drops after reaching $4380 in October (a single-day drop of 6.3%), leading some investors to exit at $4500 [6] Impact on Ordinary Consumers - There is a contradiction in the consumer market, as domestic gold jewelry prices have surpassed 1400 yuan per gram, but the buyback price is over 30% lower, leaving consumers in a "paper profit hard to realize" dilemma [6] - The wedding demand is shifting towards the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, where pricing by gram or rental services is being adopted to lower costs [7] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Short-term strategy advises against chasing prices; focus on support at $4480, with a breakdown indicating a target of $4430 [8] - Long-term strategy suggests a maximum allocation of 10% of liquid assets, with a preference for gold ETFs (considering fees) [8] Future Key Observation Points - Policy outlook includes the Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting statements and non-farm payroll data; weak employment figures could strengthen rate cut expectations [9] - Geopolitical developments such as progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the potential escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts are critical [10] - Fund flows, including changes in global gold ETF holdings (with a net increase of $5.2 billion in December) and the sustainability of central bank gold purchases, are essential to monitor [11]

美联储降息预期支撑贵金属资产价值，新能源与AI算力发展带动铜等工业金属需求增长，进一步强化 相关板块的市场关注度。 声明：本内容由AI生成，数据资料来自于交易所及第三方公开信息，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：智投君 交易所数据显示，截至10时12分，白银有色涨幅为10.05%，最新价6.46元，总市值478.35亿元，封板资 金5.83亿元，成交额19.45亿元，换手率4.23%。该股开盘后震荡下探，早盘阶段一度下探至5.96，随后 逐步企稳并震荡上行；临近10时13分，出现显著放量拉升，价格快速冲高至6.46，截至10时14分，价格 维持在6.46附近。 市场炒作点聚焦于白银价格的大幅攀升，白银有色作为国内重要的白银生产企业，业务直接受益于白银 价格上行，同时铜等工业金属需求提升也对相关板块形成带动。 消息面上，现货白银持续拉升涨超5%，报83.16美元/盎司，继续刷新历史新高。芝商所宣布于12月29日 收盘后全面上调黄金、白银、锂等金属期货品种的履约保证金。美联储明年1月维持利率不变的概率为 81.2%，市场对美联储降息预期仍存。 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices experienced significant volatility, reaching a high of $84.03 per ounce before dropping to around $75, with a weekly increase of over 6% and a year-to-date rise of 180% driven by supply shortages and strong investment inflows [1][4] - Last Friday, silver surged by 10.24%, closing at $79.14 per ounce, marking a record high of $79.30 [1] - Predictions suggest silver could reach $80 by the end of 2025, with potential further increases in the first half of 2026 [1][4] Group 2: Platinum and Palladium Performance - Platinum prices rose by 0.66% to a high of $2467 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 10.3%, setting a record high of $2454.12 [1] - Palladium also saw a significant rise, increasing by 14% last Friday and reaching a three-year high of $2003.83 per ounce [1] - The increases in platinum and palladium reflect strong industrial demand and geopolitical risks impacting the precious metals market [1][4] Group 3: Driving Factors for Precious Metals - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar are primary drivers for the rise in precious metal prices [3] - Market expectations indicate two potential rate cuts in 2026, enhancing the appeal of precious metals priced in dollars for overseas buyers [3] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields further supports the outlook for gold and silver prices [3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - There is a divergence in future silver price predictions, with some analysts forecasting a rise above $100 by 2026, while others warn of potential price corrections in the first half of 2026 [4] - The overall bullish trend in precious metals may lead to a consolidation phase due to rapid price increases [4] - Investment strategies suggest positioning for both support and resistance levels, with a cautious approach recommended for trading [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond industry is "Underperform the Market" [1][4] Core Viewpoints - US employment data continues to cool, with weak employment growth and a rising unemployment rate. In November, non - farm payrolls increased by about 64,000, and the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In October, non - farm data weakened significantly, with a decrease of 105,000 jobs [1] - Inflation data unexpectedly cooled. The US CPI in November rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose only 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since 2021, providing room for interest rate cut expectations next year [2] - The US GDP in the third quarter grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, mainly driven by consumer and business spending resilience and more stable trade policies [2] - In the US dollar bond market, it is recommended to prioritize defense. Corely allocate medium - and short - duration investment - grade bonds (5 - 7 - year investment - grade bonds currently have a yield of about 4.3%) and moderately allocate TIPS while keeping low allocations for long - duration varieties over 10 years [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. US Macro - economy and Liquidity - Employment: US employment data shows a cooling trend. In November, non - farm payrolls increased slightly, and the unemployment rate reached a new high. In October, non - farm data was significantly weak, affected by the sharp reduction in federal government employment [1] - Inflation: The US CPI and core CPI in November showed significant cooling, providing room for future monetary policy adjustments and interest rate cut expectations next year [2] - GDP: The US GDP in the third quarter grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, with strong consumer and business spending [2] 2. Exchange Rate - The report presents multiple figures related to non - US currency trends, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, and the relationship between the US dollar index and other indicators, but no specific analysis content about exchange rates is provided [50][55][57] 3. Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The report shows figures such as the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by level and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, and the returns in the past two weeks (by level and industry), but no specific analysis content is provided [63][65][67] 4. Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 16 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 2 rating revocations, 6 rating upgrades, 5 rating downgrades, and 3 initial ratings. Specific rating actions for each issuer are listed in the table [71][72]

专家分析称，短期内人民币汇率预计将围绕7.0关口双向波动、稳中偏强运行，单边快速升值的行情概 率不高，即使继续升值，也将是温和的。 从全球资金的视角看，中国国债利率减去美债利率的差值越大时，意味着资金在中国获得的利息更多， 反之则为利差倒挂，资金流向美国的意愿更强。目前，中美利差仍然明显倒挂约230个基点，一旦近期 人民币升值趋势有所缓和，经营主体仍有动力持有美元。 面对上述复杂局面，近期中国人民银行货币政策委员会例会已明确强调"防范汇率超调风险"，需要注意 的是，汇率超调风险既包括贬值风险、也包括升值风险，不排除汇率升值过快后中国央行采取措施的可 能性。 中新社北京12月29日电 (陶思阅)近期人民币汇率持续走强，离岸人民币对美元即期汇率突破7.0关口。 综合来看，人民币此轮升值主要受美联储降息预期升温、美元指数走弱等因素共同推动。 业内专家认为，人民币汇率后续走势仍存在较大不确定性，这一局面由多重因素交织形成。 从外部环境来看，美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于明年结束，即将进行的权力交接，其核心远不止于人 事。谁将接棒鲍威尔，或预示着美联储未来货币政策的方向。美国正面临通胀和就业的艰难平衡，进一 步降息面临约束 ...