Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US dollar index is under pressure due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence, while global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. With policies to expand service consumption and the extension of the tariff truce between China and the US, short - term domestic risk appetite has risen. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally [2]. - Different sectors have different short - term trends. For example, stock indices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, treasury bonds to fluctuate at high levels, and different commodity sectors have their own characteristics such as black metals being weak, non - ferrous metals being slightly stronger, energy and chemicals fluctuating, and precious metals being strong at high levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakening US dollar index and rising global risk appetite are due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was still below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption are to be introduced, and the extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and increase domestic easing expectations. Short - term macro upward drivers are strengthening marginally [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Driven by sectors like precious metals, metals, and biomedicine, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the improvement in manufacturing PMI and policy support, short - term domestic risk appetite has increased. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and short - term operation is to be cautiously bullish [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see approach [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, steel futures and spot prices continued to be weak, and market trading volume was low. Although the PMI in August increased by 0.1 percentage points, it was still below the boom - bust line. Real - world demand is weakening, steel inventories are increasing, and the probability of steel mills resuming production next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, the decline in iron ore futures and spot prices widened. Iron water production is expected to further decline this week, and steel mills' procurement is cautious. The global iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume have increased this week, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined. The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia has little change, and there are new production capacity plans in October. The production of silicon iron has cost support, and the reduction in production is expected to be limited. Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and profits are declining. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Supply has slightly increased, demand is difficult to improve significantly, and profits have slightly increased. Glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached a new high. However, domestic copper demand is expected to weaken marginally, and although the Fed's rate cut in September may briefly boost copper prices, the strong copper price is hard to sustain [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the aluminum closing price fell and then rebounded slightly. Aluminum inventory has increased, and LME aluminum inventory is at a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside space for aluminum prices is limited, and in the short term, it will maintain a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is expected to be more abundant. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside space [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Monday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. Lithium carbonate is slowly destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract rose. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main polysilicon contract rose significantly. Rumors of industry restructuring have raised market expectations, but production in August was close to 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is focused on geopolitical risks. India has refuted the US pressure to stop importing oil from Russia, and Ukraine has attacked more Russian refineries. OPEC+ will hold a meeting to discuss supply policies, and the market expects the organization to suspend production increases. The spot price has a limited rebound, and attention should be paid to Indian tariffs and OPEC+ production decisions [13]. - **Asphalt**: The slight increase in oil prices has driven up asphalt costs. Asphalt itself is still weak, with a slightly declining basis. Inventory de - stocking is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the near term, with attention to changes in oil costs [14]. - **PX**: The rebound in crude oil prices has driven up the PX market, but due to low PTA开工, the PX price is still weak. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the PXN spread has slightly decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [14]. - **PTA**: The PTA开工 has been at a low level due to plant problems, but the high basis has weakened, and processing fees have recovered. Demand recovery is slow, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with attention to oil prices and downstream demand [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to overseas plant problems, imports are expected to be low, and port inventory has decreased significantly. The load of synthetic gas plants is high, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, with attention to downstream开工 recovery and oil costs [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price has slightly decreased due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and short - fiber开工 has rebounded slightly. Inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to follow the polyester sector and can be shorted at high levels in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO plants provide some support, but the oversupply pattern remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **PP**: The device开工 has increased, and new production capacity has been put into operation. Demand is weak, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **LLDPE**: Current maintenance has relieved supply pressure, and downstream demand is slowly increasing, with inventory decreasing. As maintenance ends, supply pressure will increase. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand growth [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT market was closed overnight. Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectations for new - crop US soybeans in August, and export sales data have improved, the net long position of CBOT soybean funds has increased. However, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not overly optimistic, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, with more imported soybeans being released, the risk preference for protein meal may decrease. There is still a large pressure for short - term inventory accumulation, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Southeast Asian palm oil is in a peak production season, and exports are limited. It is expected that Indonesia will repair its low inventory, while Malaysia will face inventory accumulation pressure. The overall boost to oils and fats is limited. Domestic palm oil may be under pressure, while soybean and rapeseed oils have sufficient supply and demand and may see a repair of the low - valued market [17][18]. - **Corn**: In September, attention should be paid to the new - crop corn listing. There is no concentrated arrival pressure this year, and port and downstream inventories are low. The expected opening price of new - crop corn in the main production areas may be slightly higher than last year, and the main C2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [18]. - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. The pressure of large - weight pig sales has been released, and there is a seasonal replenishment for secondary fattening. With the traditional holiday stocking period, the pig price should not be overly pessimistic [19].

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is a key driver, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a high likelihood of a cumulative 100 basis point cut by fall 2026 [2] - The weakening dollar is exacerbated by trade policy changes, with the dollar index hitting a five-week low of 97.52, influenced by a court ruling against Trump's tariffs [4] - Strong industrial demand and tight supply are driving silver prices, supported by a low interest rate environment that reduces holding costs [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold has formed a strong bullish trend with five consecutive daily gains, supported by the moving average system, with key support levels at 3440 and 3437 [9] - The four-hour analysis indicates that gold is in a five-wave upward structure, with attention needed on potential resistance at 3500 and 3520 [10] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Rising global political risks, including the rise of far-right parties in Europe, are increasing safe-haven demand for precious metals [6] - Investor sensitivity to geopolitical risks is heightened, further boosting demand for gold and silver as hedges against uncertainty [6]

2025年1—8月，贸易摩擦加剧、地缘政治局势以及美联储降息预期等因素相继主导黄金行情，黄金价格 呈现大幅拉升态势，伦敦金价格刷新历史高位，触及3500美元／盎司，沪金主力合约创历史新高，触及 841.28元／克，随后开始高位震荡蓄势。1—8月，伦敦金价格整体在2614~3500.12美元／盎司区间偏强 运行，涨幅超过31%；沪金整体在626~841.3元／克区间偏强运行，涨幅接近27%。 展望2025年剩余时间，美联储宽松周期将重启，全球贸易关系难实质性好转，地缘政治局势依然紧张， 叠加美国财政赤字与债务泡沫继续累积等因素影响，黄金延续偏强行情的可能性大。 多重因素引发美联储降息预期升温，对黄金形成利好影响。第一，美联储官员鸽派转向加速。美联储主 席鲍威尔鸽派转向即将拉开美联储再度降息的序幕。第二，美联储独立性再受冲击。一方面，美国政府 多次强调要提前解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，然后直接参与解雇美联储理事库克，但无论鲍威尔和库克是否 被解雇，美联储的独立性均受到较大冲击。随着特朗普政府任命越来越多的美联储官员，美联储即将开 启新一轮的降息周期，并且降息幅度可能比预期更大。第三，美国就业数据表现偏弱促使美联储降息预 ...

Group 1 - The recent US PCE price index has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, providing short-term support for gold prices [1] - The US dollar index remains low, and if it breaks down further, gold prices may accelerate upward [1] - Future economic data and Federal Reserve policy will be crucial for gold price trends, with potential for gold to break historical highs if employment data shows economic cooling [1] Group 2 - On a weekly level, gold prices are entering a triangle formation, with direction expected to emerge around the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [2] - On a daily level, gold prices have formed an upward trend, with the next key resistance at the 3500 mark, while short-term moving averages are forming a bullish arrangement [2] - A warning is issued for potential reversal signals, as a significant pullback could occur if historical highs are tested [2] Group 3 - For short-term trading strategies, it is recommended to buy in the 3435-3430 range with a stop loss of 8 points, targeting 3455-3470 [4] - Aggressive traders may consider selling in the 3485-3490 range with a stop loss of 8 points, targeting 3460-3445, while conservative traders should sell in the 3495-3500 range with the same stop loss, targeting 3475-3455 [4]

来源：滚动播报 黄金在亚洲早盘走势平稳。现货黄金价格基本持平，报每盎司3,478.62美元。澳新银行研究部的分析师 报告表示，有关美联储将在9月份降息的预期支撑了黄金板块最近的这轮涨势。他们表示："本周将公布 的美国就业报告将是决定当前黄金涨势能否持续的关键。"利率下降通常有利于不产生利息的黄金。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The international gold price has risen for the fifth consecutive trading day, with COMEX gold futures reaching a record high of $3,553.8 per ounce, and spot gold surpassing $3,480 per ounce, approaching the historical high set in April. Year-to-date, spot gold has increased by over 32% [1] - Domestic gold stocks, such as Western Gold, Hunan Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, saw their share prices rise on the same day. The physical gold price for brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry increased to 1,027 yuan per gram, up by 1.18% [1] - The recent surge in precious metals is largely driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, attracting significant market attention and investment enthusiasm. Several international financial institutions have raised their gold price targets, indicating strong optimism for the future of gold [1] Group 2: Consumer Loan Policy - The implementation of the "Personal Consumption Loan Fiscal Subsidy Policy" began on September 1, which is the first time the central government has provided subsidies for personal consumption loans, covering areas such as automobiles, home appliances, renovations, travel, and healthcare, with subsidies lasting until August 31, 2026 [3] - The policy sets a cap on subsidies to prevent arbitrage, with a maximum subsidy of 1,000 yuan for individual loans under 50,000 yuan and a total cap of 3,000 yuan for all personal consumption loans [3] - Multiple banks have quickly launched service portals for this subsidy, and some existing customers may also benefit from the subsidies, although the implementation pace and subsidy paths may vary by bank [3] Group 3: Digital Transformation in Transportation - The transition to a paperless ticketing system for train travel is set to be completed by September 30, with electronic invoices replacing paper tickets. This shift began in 2018 and aims to enhance efficiency and environmental sustainability [2] - After September 30, the reimbursement function for train tickets will also move to an electronic format, although concerns about accessibility for elderly travelers have been raised. However, travelers can still print journey information slips from self-service machines [2] - The electronic invoice system is designed to be user-friendly, allowing travelers to apply for invoices through their 12306 accounts, filling in relevant information for the system to issue and upload to tax authorities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global markets, focusing on the upcoming U.S. labor market data and its potential impact on economic policies and investor sentiment. Group 1: U.S. Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Investors are closely watching the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, along with job vacancy data and private sector employment figures [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 10.4%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 89.6% [7] - Analysts suggest that the U.S. economy is no longer performing as strongly as in the past decade, which may justify the weakening of the dollar [7] Group 2: European Market Performance - European stock markets saw a slight increase, with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.2% [2] - The CAC40 index in France remained stable after a 3.3% decline due to political and fiscal concerns [2] Group 3: Currency Movements - The offshore RMB has appreciated nearly 1000 basis points against the USD since August, and about 3000 basis points since early April [9] - Hedge funds are increasingly betting on the continued strength of the RMB against the USD, with a focus on options that could see the RMB reach 7 or higher by year-end [9] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Global benchmark Brent crude oil rose by 1% amid concerns over potential supply disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [12] - The U.S. labor market report is expected to reflect the health of the U.S. economy and test investor confidence in potential interest rate cuts [15] - The weakening dollar has made oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies, potentially increasing demand [16]

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - On September 1, COMEX gold prices surpassed $3550 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $3552.2 per ounce, with an increase of over 1% [1] - Domestic gold stocks also performed well, with companies like Western Gold hitting the daily limit, and Hunan Gold rising by 8%. Other gold stocks such as Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold saw increases exceeding 6% [1] - The gold jewelry market experienced price hikes, with brands like Chow Tai Fook raising the price of pure gold jewelry to 1027 yuan per gram, an increase of 12 yuan per gram from the previous trading day [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Expectations - The international gold price has risen for five consecutive trading days, with an overall increase of over 5% in August, indicating strong market demand for gold [3] - The U.S. core inflation rate, as reported by the Commerce Department, reached an annualized growth rate of 2.9% in July, the highest level since February, suggesting that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [3] - Market expectations are leaning towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support commodity prices, including gold [3] Group 3: Future Projections - Swiss Bank has raised its target price for international gold to $3700 per ounce by the first half of 2026, while analysts at Bank of America predict a more aggressive target of $4000 per ounce [4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a focal point for the market, with expectations that a significant slowdown in employment data could further elevate rate cut expectations and push gold prices to challenge historical highs [5] - As of June 30, 2025, the London spot gold price was $3287.45 per ounce, reflecting a 24.31% increase since the beginning of the year, highlighting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]

2025年1—8月，贸易摩擦加剧、地缘政治局势以及美联储降息预期等因素相继主导黄金行情，黄金价格 呈现大幅拉升态势，伦敦金价格刷新历史高位，触及3500美元／盎司，沪金主力合约创历史新高，触及 841.28元／克，随后开始高位震荡蓄势。1—8月，伦敦金价格整体在2614~3500.12美元／盎司区间偏强 运行，涨幅超过31%；沪金整体在626~841.3元／克区间偏强运行，涨幅接近27%。 展望2025年剩余时间，美联储宽松周期将重启，全球贸易关系难实质性好转，地缘政治局势依然紧张， 叠加美国财政赤字与债务泡沫继续累积等因素影响，黄金延续偏强行情的可能性大。 多重因素引发美联储降息预期升温，对黄金形成利好影响。第一，美联储官员鸽派转向加速。美联储主 席鲍威尔鸽派转向即将拉开美联储再度降息的序幕。第二，美联储独立性再受冲击。一方面，美国政府 多次强调要提前解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，然后直接参与解雇美联储理事库克，但无论鲍威尔和库克是否 被解雇，美联储的独立性均受到较大冲击。随着特朗普政府任命越来越多的美联储官员，美联储即将开 启新一轮的降息周期，并且降息幅度可能比预期更大。第三，美国就业数据表现偏弱促使美联储降息预 ...

9月1日，A股三大指数全线上涨，整个市场超3200只股票上涨，逾120只股票涨停。黄金、光模块、光 芯片等板块表现活跃，整个A股市场成交额为2.78万亿元，为连续14个交易日成交额超2万亿元。 8月，A股融资资金持续增加，截至8月29日，A股两融余额报22613.49亿元，融资余额报22454.72亿元， 均创逾10年新高，8月A股融资余额增加超2700亿元。8月股票型ETF净流出近200亿元，国泰中证全指证 券公司ETF、化工ETF均净流入超80亿元。 分析人士认为，当前市场成交维持活跃，美联储降息预期下风险偏好有望延续改善，中期行情或逐步转 向基本面驱动，A股市场热点仍将处于轮动状态，建议关注结构性配置机会。 ● 本报记者 吴玉华 通信板块领涨市场 9月1日，A股市场迎来"开门红"行情，三大指数全线上涨。截至收盘，上证指数、深证成指、创业板 指、科创50指数分别上涨0.46%、1.05%、2.29%、1.18%，北证50指数下跌0.36%。 领涨的通信板块中，锐捷网络涨逾16%，中际旭创涨逾14%，光库科技涨逾13%，有方科技、东土科技 均涨逾12%，天孚通信涨逾11%，三维通信、恒宝股份、数据港均涨停， ...