1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The global economic investment rating is (turning weak) [1] 2. Report's Core View - The so - called AI bubble is unlikely to exist in the next three years, and the market's long - standing "AI trading" logic has changed significantly. The AI industry is shifting from "scaling up" to the "research era." The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly. The US economy shows signs of weakening, with slow retail sales growth, accelerated private enterprise job cuts, and an emerging burden - of - cost crisis on the consumer side. The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Important Information - AI - related: Industry leaders like the CEO of Alibaba suggest that new and previous generations of GPUs are fully utilized, indicating no AI bubble in the next three years. Google's full - stack innovation creates a multiplier effect, and about 5 years later, people will be excited about quantum technology. The market's "AI trading" logic has changed, with "Google chain" stocks rising and "OpenAI chain" stocks falling. The era of AI breakthroughs by "scaling up" is over, and the industry is moving towards a "research era" [1] - Economic - related: Goldman Sachs launched a new portfolio GSXUPROD with non - tech companies integrating AI. US retail sales in September increased only 0.2%, far below expectations, and consumer confidence dropped. ADP data shows private enterprises are laying off more employees, increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. US PPI rose in September, indicating a resurgence of inflation. Musk is promoting an AI - replacing - human strategy [1][2] 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to 80%. Google plans to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years. The CEO of NVIDIA believes China will win the AI competition. The construction of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion, and US data center planning capacity has increased. US stock market retail participation is accelerating. US economic indicators such as retail sales and employment are weakening, and the global economy is entering the top - region due to US policies [2]

Group 1 - Nvidia reported a revenue of $57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62%, but its stock price fell by 2.6% after initially rising by 5% [1] - The market's reaction to Nvidia's strong earnings was negative, with the S&P 500 index dropping 1.6% after a 1.9% gain, resulting in a market value loss of over $2 trillion [1][3] - The strong performance of Nvidia raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, with analysts suggesting that better performance could lead to sustained high rates, negatively impacting high-valuation tech stocks [3] Group 2 - Despite Nvidia's impressive earnings, concerns about an AI bubble emerged, with short-seller Michael Burry questioning revenue recognition practices and warning of lower terminal demand [5] - A sudden release of the U.S. non-farm payroll report showed an addition of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, which led to a drop in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December to below 40% [3] - The market experienced a liquidity crisis, with the average liquidity of top buy-sell orders shrinking from $11 million to $5 million, indicating a near "zero liquidity" state [5] Group 3 - Chinese concept stocks showed resilience as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, with foreign investment increasing in Alibaba and Pinduoduo [6] - A-shares saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,870 points and over 4,300 stocks rising, indicating a shift in market style towards the semiconductor industry [8] - The financing balance in the market reached a four-month high of 1.92 trillion yuan, signaling optimistic capital inflows and a shift in investment strategies [9]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang encourages employees to utilize AI as much as possible, asserting that there is no need to worry about job loss in the process [2][3][5]. Group 1: Employee Engagement with AI - Huang strongly opposes management directives that suggest employees reduce their use of AI, calling such instructions irrational [3]. - He emphasizes the importance of automating tasks through AI, assuring employees that they will still have jobs [4]. - Other tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon are also pushing for increased AI integration in daily work [4]. Group 2: Company Growth and Hiring - Despite rising "job loss anxiety" in the tech sector, Nvidia continues to hire thousands of employees, even as other companies are laying off staff [5]. - Huang mentions that Nvidia may still need around 10,000 more employees to meet its operational demands [6]. - The employee count at Nvidia has significantly increased from 29,600 at the end of fiscal year 2024 to 36,000 by the end of fiscal year 2025 [7]. Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - Nvidia's market value recently dropped to $4.32 trillion after previously exceeding $5 trillion, although it remains the most valuable company globally [7].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of optimism and long-term thinking in the age of AI, using the construction of the Sagrada Familia as a metaphor for enduring creativity and collaboration across generations [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Historical Context and Long-term Vision - The Sagrada Familia, designed by Antoni Gaudí, represents a long-term vision that transcends individual lifetimes, showcasing the spirit of optimism and creativity [2][3]. - Gaudí's modular design approach allowed for independent progress on different parts of the church, ensuring that the project could adapt to future technologies and funding sources [3]. - The completion of the Sagrada Familia is projected for 2026, marking a significant milestone in a project that has spanned over 144 years [3]. Group 2: Optimism in Uncertain Times - The article argues that maintaining optimism is crucial in uncertain times, as most significant human achievements have been made by optimists [4][6]. - It highlights the need for a flexible mindset to envision multiple possibilities for the future, especially in the context of AI and global challenges [8][9]. Group 3: AI and Creativity - AI is positioned as a partner that enhances human creativity rather than replacing it, enabling individuals to focus on imaginative and meaningful tasks [12][16]. - The evolution of AI is expected to lead to a surge in creativity, as it frees up time for individuals to explore interests and engage in non-utilitarian pursuits [16][17]. Group 4: Challenges and Collaboration with AI - The article discusses the limitations of AI, emphasizing the need for human guidance in training AI models to ensure they align with real-world complexities [17][18]. - It points out the gap between theoretical knowledge and practical application in AI, suggesting that human experience is essential for effective collaboration [18][19]. Group 5: Future Implications - The potential for AI to reshape work dynamics is explored, with the possibility of reduced working hours as AI takes over routine tasks [16]. - The article concludes by stressing the importance of understanding change and embracing unexpected possibilities brought about by AI advancements [23].

Core Viewpoint - The market's reaction to rumors of Meta purchasing Google's TPU has been described as an overreaction, with analysts suggesting that companies like Google and Nvidia can coexist and thrive in the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure market [1][2]. Market Perception Bias - Google DeepMind scientist Amir Yazdan criticized the market's shallow understanding of hardware and demand, emphasizing the strong demand in the AI sector while clarifying he was not involved in TPU design [2]. - Nvidia refuted claims that Google would disrupt its dominance in AI chips, asserting that it remains the only platform capable of running all AI models and supporting full-scenario computing [2][3]. Analyst Opinions - Most Wall Street analysts maintain that Nvidia is the unassailable leader in the AI chip market, with Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya stating that Google's self-developed TPU chips are unlikely to pose a significant competitive threat [3]. - Futurum Group's Daniel Newman highlighted that the debate over GPU vs. TPU reflects a zero-sum mindset, asserting that the AI infrastructure market could reach trillions, allowing companies like Google, Nvidia, and AMD to achieve mutual success [3][4]. - Analysts from Wedbush and Mizuho Securities echoed the sentiment that Nvidia's dominance in AI will not change in the short term, despite the emergence of Google's TPU chips [4][5]. Stock Performance Divergence - Google's stock has surged by 15% since November and 71% year-to-date, making it the best-performing stock among the "seven giants" of 2025, while Nvidia's stock has dropped by 12% this month, with a year-to-date increase of 32% [7]. - Wedbush's Ives noted that the tech sector is experiencing volatility after a period of strong performance, with Nvidia's strong growth data not translating into stock price gains due to concerns over an AI bubble and competition [7][8]. Future Outlook - Ives' team concluded that the ongoing investment by tech giants is crucial for driving the next phase of growth in AI, with Nvidia's strong quarterly performance indicating that this investment trend will continue at least until 2026 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is witnessing a shift as investors reassess their positions in technology stocks closely tied to AI, particularly in light of concerns over an "AI bubble" and are increasingly favoring value stocks with stable cash flows and lower valuations compared to high-profile AI stocks like Nvidia and AMD [1][18]. Group 1: Value Stocks and Market Trends - Value stocks are characterized by low price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios, stable earnings, and high dividend yields, often belonging to established companies [2]. - The healthcare sector has emerged as a significant beneficiary in the current market rotation towards value stocks, outperforming other sectors with a 10% increase in the S&P 500 Healthcare Index [2][3]. - The S&P 500 index has seen a decline of 1.1% during the same period, while companies like Eli Lilly have experienced substantial gains, highlighting the contrasting performance between value and growth stocks [3][15]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Behavior - Hedge funds have been aggressively buying into the healthcare sector, marking it as the largest net buying segment among value stocks for four consecutive weeks, with the most significant inflow in over five years [6][7]. - Mutual funds have also increased their allocation to healthcare stocks, reflecting a broader trend of investors seeking undervalued opportunities amid fears of an AI bubble [7]. - The healthcare sector's strong performance is attributed to positive clinical trial results, accelerated AI-driven research, and a resurgence in merger and acquisition activities [10][12]. Group 3: Performance Metrics and Valuation - The healthcare sector's earnings have exceeded expectations, making it the best-performing sector in over four years, with a current P/E ratio of approximately 18.7, compared to the S&P 500's 22.1 [15][12]. - Notable individual stock performances include Merck, which rose 23% in November, and Regeneron, which increased by 21% following positive regulatory news [11][12]. - The shift towards healthcare stocks is seen as a response to the overvaluation of tech stocks and the search for more stable investment opportunities [18][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1. Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes | Asset Class | Sub - variety | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Commodities | Iron ore | 785.50 | 1.68% | | | Corn | 2195.00 | 0.46% | | | Rebar | 3057.00 | 0.13% | | | PTA | 4666.00 | - 0.72% | | | Palm oil | 8550.00 | - 1.09% | | | Polysilicon | 53360.00 | - 1.27% | | | Copper | 85660.00 | - 1.43% | | | Crude oil | 447.40 | - 2.19% | | | Aluminum | 21340.00 | - 2.29% | | | Methanol | 2004.00 | - 2.48% | | | Soybean meal | 3012.00 | - 2.59% | | | Gold | 926.94 | - 2.75% | | | Ethylene glycol | 3808.00 | - 2.91% | | | PVC | 4456.00 | - 3.30% | | | Live pigs | 11350.00 | - 3.61% | | | Glass | 987.00 | - 4.36% | | | Silver | 11680.00 | - 5.62% | | | Coking coal | 1103.00 | - 7.47% | 2.2. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes | Stock Index | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai 50 | 2955.85 | - 2.72% | | CSI 300 | 4453.61 | - 3.77% | | CSI 500 | 6817.41 | - 5.78% | | FTSE 100 | 9539.71 | - 1.64% | | S&P 500 | 6602.99 | - 1.95% | | France CAC40 | 7982.65 | - 2.29% | | NASDAQ Index | 22273.08 | - 2.74% | | Nikkei 225 | 48625.88 | - 3.48% | | Hang Seng Index | 25220.02 | - 5.09% | 2.3. Bonds and Weekly Changes | Bond | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.59 | + 0.62bp | | 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.82 | + 0.14bp | | 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.43 | - 0.45bp | 2.4. Foreign Exchange and Weekly Changes | Foreign Exchange | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 100.15 | + 0.87% | | US Dollar Intermediate Price | 7.09 | + 0.07% | | Euro - US Dollar | 1.15 | - 0.93% | [2] 3. Commodity Views 3.1. Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy View: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Nvidia's better - than - expected performance eases AI bubble concerns; Fed officials' remarks boost rate - cut expectations; loose expectations remain, and the stock index may stage a phased recovery; significant short - term decline with strong downside support. - Bearish Logic: Fed's hawkish stance causes liquidity expectations to fluctuate; rising US Dollar Index suppresses global risk appetite; AI bubble controversy affects tech stocks; fading speculative sentiment leads to reduced trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy View: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Weak fundamental data and insufficient domestic demand support loose expectations; central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading signals policy support; medium - to - long - term allocation demand pulls interest rates down; limited incremental policies at the end of the year. - Bearish Logic: Low expectation of further rate cuts, lack of upward momentum; tight external market liquidity affects the bond market; new redemption rules suppress the bond market, especially 30 - year bonds [4]. 3.2. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: OPEC + suspends production increase, tightening supply expectations; northern hemisphere's heating season boosts demand; geopolitical risks in South America remain; short - term disruption of Libyan exports; Fed officials' calming remarks boost rate - cut expectations; potential stabilization after short - term oversold. - Bearish Logic: Persistent global supply surplus and inventory accumulation; fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations and tight liquidity; overall slowdown in fourth - quarter demand; significant decline in geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Malaysia enters the production - reduction season, easing supply pressure; India's import profit recovery may increase procurement; Indonesia's B50 policy boosts long - term biodiesel demand; widening international soybean - palm oil price difference makes palm oil more cost - effective. - Bearish Logic: US cancellation of relevant energy offices is negative for biodiesel policies; weak Malaysian palm oil exports in November; large domestic inventory accumulation; winter consumption off - season and expected inventory build - up [5]. 3.4. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Low inventory provides price support; limited supply increase expected in 2026, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance; emerging sectors like energy storage drive long - term aluminum consumption. - Bearish Logic: AI bubble concerns affect metal performance; cooling Fed rate - cut expectations pressure metal prices; potential decline in photovoltaic production may suppress aluminum consumption; high prices squeeze processing profits; industry off - season affects demand and开工 [6]. 3.5. Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Potential winter maintenance in Iran may reduce imports; attention to year - end maintenance of southwest gas - based producers; increased losses in coal - to - methanol production may force a reduction in operating loads; low valuation limits downside space. - Bearish Logic: Weakening macro - drivers lead to trading of weak fundamentals; high import arrivals and expected port inventory build - up; compressed MTO profits reduce methanol procurement; weakening coal - based cost support [6]. 3.6. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy View: 2 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Fed officials' dovish signals boost rate - cut expectations; geopolitical and policy uncertainties increase gold's safe - haven appeal; US debt credit issues weaken long - term US dollar confidence; global central banks' continuous gold purchases support long - term demand. - Bearish Logic: Large internal differences within the Fed lead to unclear policy guidance; better - than - expected non - farm payrolls strengthen the hawkish stance; improving US dollar liquidity may increase market risk appetite [7]. 3.7. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Tight supply expectations of Australian coal may support import costs; potential decline in production after year - end production targets are met; increased demand from winter heating. - Bearish Logic: Supply - guarantee policies make the market cautious; increased steel mill losses lead to reduced hot metal production; significant increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance; more online auction failures indicate weak demand; high coking coal inventory in coke enterprises reduces restocking willingness [7].

Group 1 - UBS Asset Management indicates that Chinese stock valuations remain attractive, with MSCI China at approximately 13.2 times forward P/E, slightly above the past decade's average, but still below historical highs, suggesting no overheating in the market [1] - Global investors, including long-term funds and hedge funds, are actively participating in Chinese stocks, primarily through ETFs rather than actively managed funds, indicating a "technical repair" phase in the market [1] - UBS expects continued optimism for Asian assets over the next 6-12 months, with MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) at about 15 times forward P/E, significantly lower than MSCI Global's 20.5 times, indicating substantial room for capital inflow [1] Group 2 - A Reuters survey predicts the S&P 500 index to rise to 7490 points by the end of 2026, an increase of approximately 12% from current levels, driven by a healthy U.S. economy and strong tech performance [2] - The survey indicates a potential for a market pullback in the next three months, with inflation concerns and uncertainty around interest rate cuts posing risks to the optimistic outlook [2] - The Dow Jones is forecasted to end next year at 50,566 points, reflecting an increase of over 7% from its current level [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs suggests that if a peace agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia, it could lower their Brent crude oil price forecast by about $5 per barrel, with a current forecast of $56 per barrel for next year [3] Group 4 - Analysts from ING report an increase in implied volatility for the euro against the pound ahead of the UK budget announcement, indicating market concerns despite a recovery in long-term UK government bonds [4] Group 5 - ING analysts state that the German economy is expected to remain stagnant until fiscal stimulus measures take effect, with the latest GDP estimates confirming stagnation due to weak private consumption and net exports [5] - However, they anticipate improvement post-current quarter as the German parliament is expected to approve the 2026 budget, which should support economic activity [5] Group 6 - Dongfang Jincheng forecasts limited upside for the U.S. dollar, with the RMB expected to remain strong, supported by seasonal demand for currency settlement in Q4 [6] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes a new upward cycle for lithium batteries is starting, driven by energy storage demand and technological advancements in solid-state batteries [7] - Guohai Securities projects a slow bull market for A-shares, with technology remaining a key focus, supported by liquidity from household savings [8]

Group 1 - Sinovac has signed a ten-year vaccine cooperation agreement with Brazil, marking the largest international order for a Chinese vaccine company, valued at over $700 million for approximately 60 million doses of varicella and rabies vaccines [1] - The partnership involves collaboration with local Brazilian partners Tecpar Institute and Eurofarma to enhance local vaccine production capabilities [1] Group 2 - Starry Era has established a strategic cooperation agreement with the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) during the 21st Industrial Development Conference, focusing on potential collaboration in the field of embodied intelligent humanoid robots and technological innovation [2] Group 3 - Suno, an AI platform, has reached a cooperation agreement with Warner Music Group to jointly develop a new generation of licensed AI music, resolving previous legal disputes over copyright infringement [4] Group 4 - Alibaba's Qianwen has integrated with the new Quark AI browser, becoming a desktop-level intelligent assistant, with over 110 million installations, marking a significant step in expanding its capabilities beyond a single app [5] Group 5 - Bain & Company predicts that the global humanoid robot market will enter a golden development period in the next 5 to 10 years, with annual sales potentially reaching 6 million units and a market size exceeding $120 billion by 2035, with an optimistic scenario suggesting sales could exceed 10 million units and a market size of $260 billion [5] Group 6 - ByteDance's Tomato series business is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a projected overall revenue of over 60 billion yuan this year, primarily driven by Tomato Novel [6] Group 7 - ByteDance plans to launch a new generation of PICO products in 2026, featuring a self-developed chip for low-latency, high-precision processing of high-definition video [7] Group 8 - Guohai Securities' chief economist predicts that the A-share market is likely to continue a slow bull trend, with technology remaining a key focus, supported by strong liquidity from household deposits [8] Group 9 - China Galaxy Securities acknowledges the existence of an AI bubble but considers the overall risk to be manageable at this time, drawing comparisons to the internet bubble [8] Group 10 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have outlined plans to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027, aiming to create three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [9] Group 11 - The Chengdu-Dazhou-Wanzhou high-speed railway, a significant project in China's high-speed rail network, has achieved over 98% completion in its foundation engineering, with the main bridge successfully capped [9]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about an AI valuation bubble are negatively impacting SoftBank Group's stock performance, with traders increasingly viewing SoftBank as a "shadow stock" of the unlisted company OpenAI [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Concerns - SoftBank's stock has dropped approximately 40% since late October, resulting in a market value loss of over 16 trillion yen (approximately 726.06 billion RMB) [3]. - The company is facing a global AI asset sell-off, exacerbated by fears of increased competition for OpenAI following Alphabet's launch of Gemini 3.0 [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Investments - Despite the stock decline, SoftBank recorded a surprising net profit of 2.5 trillion yen (approximately 113.45 billion RMB) in Q2 of FY2024, aided by a 14.6 billion USD paper gain from its exposure to OpenAI [5]. - SoftBank has a payment obligation of up to 22.5 billion USD due in December, part of a total commitment of 32 billion USD to OpenAI [6]. Group 3: Strategic Moves and Industry Positioning - SoftBank aims to position itself as a core player in the AI ecosystem, believing that OpenAI will lead this space, and has sold shares in Nvidia and Oracle to fund investments in AI chip design companies [6]. - The company holds nearly 90% of Arm, which supports a wide range of modern technology products, and has acquired Ampere Computing, a key customer of Arm [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Analysts express skepticism about SoftBank's aggressive entry into chip manufacturing, highlighting the rising penetration of RISC-V architecture in AI chip design, which poses a competitive threat to Arm [7]. - Meta's plan to use Google's Gemini AI chips raises concerns for Nvidia's business outlook, impacting suppliers like Ibiden Co., while Toppan Holdings Inc. saw an 11% stock increase due to expected benefits from collaboration with Google [7]. - The era of indiscriminate buying of AI concept stocks is ending, with future market selection criteria expected to become more stringent [7].