英国央行行长贝利：利率并非处于"自动驾驶"状态。 ...

英国至5月8日英国央行MPC投票赞成维持利率不变 2，预期0，前值8。 ...

挪威央行将利率维持在16年高位 承诺未来降息 智通财经5月8日电，挪威央行连续第11次会议上维持借贷成本不变，并重申计划于今年晚些时候开始放 松政策。挪威央行周四将存款利率维持在4.5%，为16年多以来最高水平，与市场预期一致。该行重 申，借贷成本将在"2025年期间"下调。由于此次会议为所谓的中期会议，官员们未发布新的经济预测或 利率展望。"未来贸易政策存在不确定性，"副行长Pal Longva在声明中表示。"这可能使利率展望朝不同 方向发展。"挪威央行在全球同行中独树一帜，多次推迟疫情后宽松政策的启动时间，这主要归因于其 能源丰富的经济韧性和克朗走软带来的通胀风险。围绕美国总统唐纳德·特朗普贸易政策影响的不确定 性，也支持了挪威央行保持观望的态度，这与美联储的立场相呼应。美联储周三维持借贷成本不变，并 表示不会仓促降息。 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（5月8日） 1. 美联储连续第三次维持利率不变，声明中强调通胀和失业率上升的风险走高。鲍威尔高呼不确定性因 素以及继续观望等待的成本很低，表示不急于降息。鲍威尔还称无意主动与特朗普会晤，后者的降息呼 吁无碍美联储的工作。 2. 美国主权财富基金迎进展 贝森特已向特朗普提交计划。 3. 乌克兰央行行长：乌克兰正在开始审议是否应该把欧元而不是美元作为参考货币。 4. 特朗普称今晚十点将宣布大消息，美媒称美国将宣布与英国达成贸易协议。 5. 韩国4月底外汇储备降至五年来最低，受当局稳市措施影响。 6. 香港金管局维持基准利率在4.75%不变。 7. 韩国央行委员：由于经济放缓，预计今年的经济增长将低于此前的预测，先发制人降息的必要性正在 增加。 8. 波兰央行重申可能会干预外汇市场，进一步的决策取决于数据。 13. 菲律宾经济官员：还有空间进一步放宽政策。 9. 捷克央行行长：捷克的货币政策将保持紧缩。 10. 墨西哥央行行长：央行很有可能继续降低基准利率。 11. 印尼表示不会在关税谈判中与美国讨论汇率问题。 12. 巴西央行加息50个基点至14.75%，符合市场预期。 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.02 美元至 58.07 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.73%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 1.03 美元至 61.12 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.66%。SC2506 以 459 元/桶收盘，下跌 7.1 元/桶， | | | | 跌幅 1.52%。美联储周三维持利率不变，但指出通胀和失业率上升 | | | | 的风险增加，在联储努力评估关税政策的影响之际，这进一步令 | | | | 经济前景蒙阴。FOMC 表示，经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。 | | | | 在这次会议上，决策者们一致同意将指标利率目标区间维持在 | | | | 4.25%-4.50%不变。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 5 月 2 日当 | | | 原油 | 周，美国商业原油库存减少 200 万桶，至 4.384 亿桶，此前市场预 | 震荡 | | | 期为减少 80 万桶。截至 5 月 2 日 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium to long-term bearish, suggesting shorting the 09 contract on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bearish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Neutral [2] - Glass: Bearish with a neutral bias [2] - CSI 300 Index: Neutral [4] - SSE 50 Index: Bullish [4] - CSI 500 Index: Bullish [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Bullish [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Neutral [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Neutral [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Bullish [4] - Gold: Bullish with a neutral bias [4] - Silver: Bullish with a neutral bias [4] - Pulp: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Logs: Neutral [5] - Soybean oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Palm oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Rapeseed oil: Bearish with a neutral bias [5] - Soybean meal: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - No. 2 soybeans: Bearish with a neutral bias [7] - No. 1 soybeans: Neutral [7] - Rubber: Neutral [7] - PX: Neutral [7] - PTA: Suggest shorting processing spreads [7] - MEG: Hold and observe [7] - PR: Hold and observe [8] - PF: Hold and observe [8] - Plastics: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] - PP: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] - PVC: Bearish with a neutral bias [8] Core Viewpoints - The global iron ore shipment may increase seasonally in the coming weeks, while steel mills' production cuts will have a negative impact on the raw material end. The 09 iron ore contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - The supply pressure of coking coal remains high, and the oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2] - The supply pressure of rebar continues to rise, and the market has doubts about external demand and domestic demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] - The glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly, and the fundamentals lack the impetus to push up prices [2] - The central bank will introduce a package of monetary policy measures, and the CSRC will promote long-term funds to enter the market, which is beneficial to the stock market [4] - The logic of the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - The supply of pulp is sufficient, and the demand side performs poorly, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The supply pressure of logs decreases, and the demand is expected to improve marginally, with the price expected to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level [5] - The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the consumption is in the off-season, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, and the market will shift from "tight reality" to "loose expectation", with the price expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - The supply of No. 2 soybeans will gradually become loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - The supply of rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - PX price is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [7] - PTA supply and demand will destock, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [7] - MEG supply and demand are not bad in the short term, but the macro sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price fluctuates widely [7] - The polyester bottle chip market may adjust weakly and steadily [8] - The polyester staple fiber market will continue to be in a game state, and the price may fluctuate within a narrow range [8] - The supply and demand of plastics are bearish, and the 05 contract will run weakly [8] - The supply pressure of PP decreases, and the price is expected to run weakly [8] - The PVC supply and demand are bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose rapidly and then fell back. The global shipment may increase seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will have a negative impact on the raw material end. The short-term reality is strong, and the price may fluctuate and consolidate at the current position. In the medium and long term, the 09 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: The supply pressure of coking coal remains high, and the oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. The second round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and the overall inventory has increased. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2] - Rebar: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose rapidly and then fell back. The supply pressure continues to rise, and the market has doubts about external demand and domestic demand. The inventory is at a low level, which supports the price. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] - Glass: Some production lines have resumed production, and the daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. The profit has improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is difficult to rebound significantly, and the fundamentals lack the impetus to push up prices [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The central bank will introduce a package of monetary policy measures, and the CSRC will promote long-term funds to enter the market, which is beneficial to the stock market. The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and the external market stabilizes. The stock index bulls can hold [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the market liquidity is at a reasonable level. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rises, and the bulls can hold [4] Precious Metals - Gold: The logic of the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors, and the tariff policy evolution dominates the market risk aversion sentiment [4] - Silver: The inflation data slows down, and the Fed does not cut interest rates as expected. The short-term price is affected by the Fed's policy and trade negotiations, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The spot market price is strong, but the cost price decline weakens the support for the pulp price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand side performs poorly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Logs: The port shipment volume increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The spot market price is weak, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level [5] Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the consumption is in the off-season. The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia increases seasonally, and the demand for biodiesel weakens. The supply of domestic soybeans increases, and the inventory is expected to rise. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Meals: The supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, and the market will shift from "tight reality" to "loose expectation". The supply of No. 2 soybeans will gradually become loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is uncertain. The inventory accumulation speed slows down, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects [7] Chemicals - PX: The oil price fluctuates at a low level, and the PX price is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [7] - PTA: The raw material price fluctuates repeatedly, and the processing spread is at a certain level. The supply and demand will destock, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [7] - MEG: The supply and demand are not bad in the short term, but the macro sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price fluctuates widely [7] - PR: The raw material support is weak, but there is certain support from the peak consumption season. The market may adjust weakly and steadily [8] - PF: The demand expectation is weak, and the oil price falls. The PTA supply shrinks, and the market will continue to be in a game state. The price may fluctuate within a narrow range [8] - Plastics: The supply and demand are bearish, and the 05 contract will run weakly. The cost end is affected by factors such as oil prices, and the supply side has new device production expectations [8] - PP: The supply pressure decreases, and the price is expected to run weakly. The cost end is affected by multiple factors, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [8] - PVC: The supply and demand are bearish, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost end is stable, the inventory is destocked, and the spot transaction is average [8]

第一季度财报季总体进展顺利，因为这是特朗普关税政策产生影响之前的最后一个季度。 根据巴克莱银行的数据，标普 500 指数（^GSPC）成分股公司本季度的盈利同比增长 7.9%。盈利超出 预期的平均幅度为 10.2%，而长期平均超出预期幅度为 5.2%。 苹果（AAPL）、字母表公司（GOOG， GOOGL）和微软（MSFT）等家喻户晓的公司，其业绩令华尔 街印象深刻。 但标普 500 指数成分股公司是否能够实现预计 10% 的每股收益增长率仍存疑问，它们的估值前景同样 如此。 考克斯警告称："我认为让很多华尔街人士担忧的是，感觉最糟糕的情况还在后头。" 从企业高管到普通消费者，每个人都在担心关税带来的影响，投资者在寻找合理估值的过程中，股票市 场也随之大幅波动。 在 4 月初的 "解放日" 之后，股票市场大幅下跌，并在 4 月 7 日触底，随后随着财报陆续公布，股票市 场在当月反弹回升。 可口可乐（KO）董事长兼首席执行官詹姆斯・昆西告诉索齐，谨慎的消费者在超市的购买量有所减 少。 昆西解释道："疲软就集中在这个方面，我认为这在一定程度上表明了低收入消费者面临的一些购买力 压力，以及一些地缘政治因素的影响。" ...

Group 1 - Central bank policies are a primary driver of foreign exchange markets, influencing currency supply and demand, market expectations, and economic fundamentals, which in turn affect exchange rate fluctuations [1] - Interest rate adjustments directly impact borrowing costs, influencing capital flows and currency values; for instance, aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 led to a nearly 20% surge in the US dollar index, reaching a 20-year high [4][24] - Quantitative easing (QE) increases money supply and can lead to currency depreciation, as seen when the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE during the pandemic caused a 12% drop in the dollar index [7][6] Group 2 - Central banks can intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling currencies to influence exchange rates; for example, Japan's Ministry of Finance warned about potential intervention to stabilize the yen [11][9] - Forward guidance from central banks can shape market expectations regarding future policy directions, with hawkish signals typically strengthening the currency and dovish signals weakening it [12][13] Group 3 - The transmission of central bank policies to the foreign exchange market occurs through various channels, including interest rate parity, capital flows, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment [16][22] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate focuses on employment and inflation, making the US dollar a global safe-haven currency, while the European Central Bank's policies are primarily aimed at inflation control, impacting the euro's value [24][25] Group 4 - Recent policy shifts, such as the Federal Reserve's transition to aggressive rate hikes from late 2021, have led to significant market reactions, including a rise in the dollar index and a peak exchange rate against the yen [24][1] - The Bank of Japan's unexpected adjustment of its yield curve control policy in December 2022 resulted in a 4% appreciation of the yen against the dollar, breaking a long-term depreciation trend [26][2] Group 5 - Future challenges for central banks include the rise of digital currencies and geopolitical factors that may influence monetary policy and currency dynamics, such as the trend of "de-dollarization" among various nations [32][34] - The interconnectedness of markets necessitates that traders consider policy analysis alongside technical factors and liquidity management to navigate extreme market conditions effectively [38][37]

5月1日，日本央行宣布，维持关键利率在0.5%不变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Financial consulting firm Continuum Economics predicts that the Bank of Japan will maintain its interest rate at 0.5% during the May meeting and will not change its forward guidance [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The uncertainty brought by U.S. tariffs is impacting Japan's economy, creating a dilemma for the Bank of Japan [1] - The anticipated negative impact of U.S. auto tariffs on the Japanese economy is significant [1] Group 2: Inflation and Wage Growth - Inflation continues to rise, with wage negotiations in Tokyo pushing wage expectations to grow over 5% [1] - If wage growth can quickly translate into domestic demand, the Bank of Japan may find it challenging to justify further delaying interest rate hikes [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - The Bank of Japan faces difficulties in proving that further postponement of interest rate hikes is reasonable if inflationary pressures are not cost-push [1]