Core Insights - In 2025, global central banks increased their gold holdings to enhance the diversity and stability of their asset portfolios, leading to a significant rise in international gold prices [1] - The price of gold reached historical highs over 50 times throughout 2025, with the cumulative increase in London spot gold exceeding 60% [1] - Conversely, the US dollar index fell from around 108 at the beginning of 2025 to approximately 98 by the end of the year, marking a cumulative decline of 9.4%, the worst performance in eight years [1] - The share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves continued to decline, with the International Monetary Fund reporting a drop from 57.08% in Q2 to 56.92% in Q3 of 2025, remaining below 60% for over ten consecutive quarters, the lowest level since 1995 [1]

黄金作为兼具商品、货币与金融属性的特殊贵金属，应用于珠宝首饰、工业技术及投资储备等领域。2010-2024 年全球黄金总供应量从 4317 吨增至 4957 吨，年复合增速 1%，其中矿产金占比升至 74%，但 2016 年后增速放缓，近年供应增长主要依赖回收金。预计 2025-2027 年总供应量分别为 5034、5095、 5143 吨，增速逐步放缓。 需求端结构已从金饰制造和投资主导，转变为金饰、投资、央行购金共同支撑。2024 年总需求量达 4957 吨，投资需求同比大增 24%；2025 年前三季度投 资需求占比升至 42%，而金饰、央行购金需求有所下滑。 1816 年至今，黄金经历八大发展阶段，地缘政治等短期因素影响金价，但中长期与美国实际利率呈负相关，央行购金提供重要支撑。当前处于 2023-2025 年降息与去美元化背景下的牛市，期间最大涨幅达 137%。 未来金价核心驱动因素有二：一是美国劳动力市场疲软、通胀温和，美联储 2026 年仍有两次降息预期，降低黄金持有成本；二是美国陷入财政赤字恶性循 环，美联储独立性受挑战，美元信用弱化，去美元化进程推动各国央行持续购金，2022-2024 年央 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the United States' ambition to maintain absolute control over Venezuela's oil industry, declaring an "indefinite" oversight of its oil exports, which reflects a continuation of military intervention and a blatant display of hegemonic behavior [1][3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. military intervention in Venezuela has paved the way for energy exploitation, as the U.S. forces recently captured President Maduro and facilitated a transitional government to clear obstacles for controlling the oil sector, disregarding international law and sovereignty [3][4][6] - Venezuela's significant oil reserves make it a key target for U.S. strategic interests, aiming to reshape the global energy landscape and weaken other oil-exporting nations [4][6][9] Group 3 - The U.S. plans to integrate Venezuela's oil exports into its own system, effectively pushing for a "camp-based" global oil supply chain, which would bind resource distribution to compliance with U.S. strategies, thereby reinforcing the dollar's dominance in oil trade [6][9][11] - The impact of U.S. actions on the Venezuelan populace is dire, with the oil industry in chaos, leading to increased energy prices, material shortages, and a crumbling livelihood for citizens, while U.S. plans prioritize its own interests over the welfare of the Venezuelan people [7][9][11] Group 4 - The international community has strongly condemned the U.S. actions, with Latin American countries uniting to criticize the military intervention and energy exploitation, emphasizing the violation of sovereignty and calling for the release of Maduro [9][11] - There is growing dissent within the U.S. regarding the legality and ethical implications of the intervention, with concerns that it serves the interests of oil companies rather than national interests, potentially deepening regional conflicts [9][11]

近日，国际安全专家马克·埃皮斯科波斯公开批评美国共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的极端对俄制裁提 议，引发全球舆论关注。 格雷厄姆因长期发表反俄言论、坚定支持乌克兰，早已被俄罗斯列为恐怖分子和极端分子，其相关提议 一贯带有强烈的对抗性。 此前格雷厄姆宣布，美国正推进一项强化对俄制裁的法案，而马克·埃皮斯科波斯在个人社交媒体账号 上针对该法案发声，直指其不合理性与潜在风险。 据俄罗斯新闻社报道，埃皮斯科波斯明确表示，格雷厄姆推动的这项法案存在明显的霸权逻辑，试图以 强硬手段胁迫他国站队。 他特别指出，该法案暗藏威胁，针对俄罗斯能源的主要购买国，逼迫其与俄罗斯断绝经济往来，否则将 发起经济战。 "如果我们这样做，美国经济将会崩溃。"埃皮斯科波斯的这一观点犀利直接，点破了极端制 裁背后的反噬风险。 这位专家进一步分析称，如此激进的制裁手段本质上是"经济自杀"，美国政府绝不会真正付诸实施，格 雷厄姆的声明更像是虚张声势的政治表演，目的是制造舆论压力。 值得注意的是，该法案已获得美国参院84名议员联署支持，两党罕见达成共识，参议院有望在近期启动 投票程序，而美国总统特朗普也已表态为法案"开绿灯"，同意若两院通过将签署生效。 ...

随着金价飙升和各国央行激进的购买潮，黄金已正式超越美国国债，三十年来首次成为全球最大的储备资产。 这是全球金融体系的一个标志性时刻，凸显了在财政可持续性担忧和地缘政治风险加剧的背景下，全球资本正加速向避险资产转移。 据世界黄金协会（WGC）最新数据，若假设年底央行持有的黄金储备规模不变，以年底价格计算，美国海外全球官方黄金储备价值已达3.93万亿美元。这一数字正式超 越了海外官方持有的长期和短期美债规模，后者截至10月份的价值接近3.88万亿美元。 尽管金价处于高位，各国央行并未停止积累黄金储备。世界黄金协会的数据显示，美国海外全球官方黄金储备总量已超过9亿金衡盎司。这种持续买入行为表明，决策者 对黄金作为核心储备资产的战略重视程度正在上升。 对于分析师而言 ，这一现象代表了全球储备持有的结构性转变。相比于传统的法定货币资产，黄金被视为没有交易对手风险的更安全替代品。 Kalish在研报中坦言： 分析人士指出，这标志着全球储备持有结构发生了根本性变化。NDR首席宏观策略师Joe Kalish指出，随着人们对法定货币的信任度降低， 非美国家持有的黄金储备价值 正迅速追赶并最终超越其美债储备价值。 这一趋势意味着 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment of developed economies, particularly in the West, is at a critical point of accelerating risk accumulation, with a deep binding of fiscal and monetary policies due to negative debt accumulation [2] - Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is transitioning from theoretical research to implicit practice, suggesting that sovereign nations with monetary autonomy can continuously issue currency for fiscal financing as long as inflation is controllable [2] - The excessive liquidity created by central banks has not directly flowed into the real economy but has instead surged into long-term narratives in technology and virtual economies, leading to asset bubbles [2] Group 2: Wealth Distribution and Employment - The wealth effect from asset prices is exacerbating social divisions in Western societies, while technological innovations, particularly in AI, are increasing employment pressures without a corresponding rise in overall productivity [3] - The internal wealth gap and employment issues in Western countries are spilling over into geopolitical tensions, manifesting as anti-immigrant sentiments and the rise of nationalism [3] Group 3: Investment Trends - Central banks are likely to continue injecting new currency into the financial system, benefiting primarily large commercial banks and wealthy individuals who can leverage complex financial instruments to hedge risks [3][4] - Ordinary workers, at the end of the monetary circulation, will see their purchasing power diluted as inflation rises, leading to an exacerbation of wealth inequality [4] Group 4: Shift in Asset Preferences - The global trend of "de-dollarization" is accelerating, with a decline in the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves, which is expected to lead to increased volatility in markets and a heightened demand for hedging against interest rate and currency risks [5] - Gold and digital currencies are being positioned as alternative assets, with gold serving as a hedge against sovereign currency credit risks amid the de-dollarization trend [5] Group 5: Future of Gold and Precious Metals - The future of gold faces significant challenges, including potential liquidity shocks during financial crises, which could lead to a temporary loss of gold's safe-haven status [7] - The restructuring of the U.S. energy system under policies that promote domestic energy production could strengthen the dollar and U.S. Treasury credit, reducing gold's appeal as an alternative asset [8] - The widespread application of robotics and AI in production could lead to structural deflation, undermining gold's core value as an inflation hedge [9] - The potential commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion could disrupt gold's value by making it more abundant, fundamentally altering its status as a scarce asset [11] Group 6: Strategic Metals and National Security - The demand for strategic metals such as tungsten, lithium, and cobalt is expected to rise due to their critical roles in defense and energy security, with significant implications for investment strategies [15][16] - The geopolitical landscape is driving nations to stockpile key strategic materials, which may lead to increased prices and demand for these metals [13][15]

Core Insights - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3357.9 billion, marking a $11.5 billion increase from November, representing a growth rate of 0.34% [1][2] - This increase in reserves is part of a five-month expansion trend, indicating stable growth of China's reserve assets in the global economic environment [2] Group 1: Key Data Highlights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3357.9 billion by December, the highest level since November 2015, with a $11.5 billion increase from $3346.0 billion in November [2] - Gold reserves also increased, reaching 74.15 million ounces (approximately 2306.32 tons), with a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (approximately 0.93 tons), marking the 14th consecutive month of accumulation [2] Group 2: Market Factors Driving Asset Changes - The rise in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to a combination of market factors, including a decline in the US dollar index and fluctuations in global financial asset prices [3] - The weaker dollar in December led to an increase in the valuation of non-dollar assets, while rising global financial asset prices also contributed to the growth of reserves [3] Group 3: International Comparison - The trend of increasing gold reserves is not isolated to China; 95% of surveyed central banks expect to continue increasing their gold holdings in the next 12 months, with 43% planning to actively increase allocations [4] - The share of gold in global central bank reserves has risen from 24% in June 2025 to 30% by October 2025, while the share of the US dollar has decreased from 43% to 40% [4] Group 4: Underlying Logic - The continuous increase in gold reserves reflects strategic considerations, as China's gold reserves account for only 8.0% of its official international reserves, significantly below the global average of around 15% [5] - The trend of reducing reliance on the US dollar is driven by concerns over the safety and stability of dollar-denominated assets, as evidenced by China's reduction of $25.7 billion in US Treasury holdings in July 2025 [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy and focus on ensuring the safety and value appreciation of foreign exchange reserve assets [6] - Analysts predict that the central bank's gold accumulation will continue, driven by the need to optimize reserve structures and reduce dependence on the US dollar [7] Group 6: Long-term Impact - The current global trend of central banks increasing gold reserves may significantly impact the future international monetary system, potentially challenging the dominance of the US dollar [8] - The trend towards "de-dollarization" could create new opportunities for the internationalization of the Chinese yuan, with expectations of increased yuan-denominated trade and investment [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index and its constituent stocks, driven by increasing demand for rare metals in various high-tech sectors, alongside supply constraints that are expected to impact prices positively [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 9, 2026, the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index rose by 1.64%, with notable gains from stocks such as Xiamen Tungsten Industry (+10.00%) and Yuexiu Capital (+9.99%) [1]. - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF (560500) increased by 1.60%, reflecting the overall positive market sentiment [1]. - In the past month, the CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF saw a significant scale increase of 52.66 million yuan and a share increase of 16 million units [1]. Group 2: Demand for Rare Metals - Rare metals are identified as a critical foundation for new productive forces, with surging demand in AI computing, new energy, commercial aerospace, and robotics [1]. - Specific examples include AI servers using 2-4 times more copper than traditional servers and humanoid robots requiring 0.9-4 kg of neodymium-iron-boron magnets [1]. - The demand for copper and rare earth magnets in new energy vehicles is significantly higher than in traditional fuel vehicles, indicating a new growth point for rare metals [1]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Supply-side constraints are intensifying due to environmental regulations, energy consumption limits, and export controls, raising the barriers for mining [2]. - Current inventories of copper, lithium, and rare earths are at historically low levels, making demand increases likely to trigger price volatility [2]. - Geopolitical tensions and the ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" are leading to a re-evaluation of the strategic asset status of rare metals [2]. Group 4: ETF Composition - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index comprises 100 listed companies selected for high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow, providing diverse investment targets [2]. - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 22.96% of the total index weight, including companies like Giant Network and Western Mining [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial products including bonds, stocks, precious metals, commodities, and agricultural products. It offers short - and medium - term outlooks and investment strategies for each product based on market data, macro - economic conditions, and industry - specific factors [5][7][10]. Summary by Product Categories Bonds (Treasury Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising by 0.37%, 0.15%, 0.09%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: Current macro - data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [5][6]. Stocks (Stock Index Futures) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [7]. - **Industry News**: There are issues of blind construction and irrational competition in the power and energy storage battery industry, which need to be regulated [7]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, asset valuations are low, and the economy has resilience. Market sentiment has improved, and incremental funds are entering the market [8]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and investors can consider taking long positions at appropriate times [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined, with gold falling by 0.10% and silver by 4.35% [10]. - **Industry News**: US December lay - off data and Eurozone economic sentiment index were released [10]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial for the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, recent sharp price increases have led to a significant rise in speculative sentiment [10]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and investors are advised to exit long positions and wait and see [10][11]. Commodities Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded but faced resistance [12]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the medium term, prices are determined by supply - demand. Demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn and approaching off - season. Supply pressure has eased as production is at a low level, and inventory is slightly higher than last year but being consumed quickly [12]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can consider long positions on pull - backs with proper position management [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: National hot - metal production has declined in the past two months but may recover. Imports increased in the first 11 months of 2025, and domestic production is lower than in 2024. Port inventory is at a five - year high [14]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to strengthen. Futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can consider long positions on pull - backs with proper position management [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose and then fell [16]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Coking coal production has increased as mines resume production, but demand from coke enterprises is weak. Coke prices have been lowered for the fourth time, and demand from steel mills is weak due to low profits [17]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The rebound shows signs of fatigue. Investors can consider long positions at low levels with proper position management [17][18]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined, with manganese - silicon falling by 1.77% and silicon - iron by 3.18% [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Manganese ore supply is recovering, and port inventory is low. Cost is fluctuating within a narrow range. Production of rebar by sample steel mills is lower than in 2024, and ferroalloy production is at a low level in the past five years. Supply is still abundant, and inventory is increasing [19]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Overall oversupply persists. Investors can consider exiting long positions on consecutive rallies and taking long positions at low levels [20]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil dropped significantly due to the US plan to sell Venezuelan oil [21]. - **Industry News**: There are multiple news related to the US's actions against Venezuela's oil industry [21]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The price is under pressure. Investors are advised to wait and see [21][22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated slightly and closed above the 5 - day moving average [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, which is positive for prices. However, the decline in crude oil prices may drag down fuel oil prices [23][25]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors are advised to wait and see [26]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou saw low - price replenishment, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao rose [27]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Production enterprises are reducing inventory, and market prices have stopped falling and rebounded, which is beneficial for price stability [27]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors can consider long positions [28]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose by 1.83% [29]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The price increase was supported by rising butadiene prices and high device operating rates. However, downstream demand is weak, and inventory turnover days have increased [29]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly [29][31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined slightly [32]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic supply has stopped, but overseas pressure remains. Demand from tire enterprises is weak, and inventory is increasing seasonally. The inclusion of 20 - rubber substitutes in physical delivery has expanded the supply [32]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate [32][33]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell by 0.99% [34]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: It is currently the off - season for PVC. Supply pressure is increasing as production has increased in December and maintenance losses have decreased. Demand is weak, and corporate profits are compressed [34]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The market may oscillate strongly in the short term, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium term. However, demand uncertainty should be noted [34][35]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose by 0.45% [36]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand from the agricultural sector is expected to grow as the top - dressing season approaches. Industrial demand is weak. Indian urea tender prices have increased, boosting market sentiment. Corporate inventory has decreased [36]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PX futures declined by 1.94% [38]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PX operating rate is stable, and some plants have restart or maintenance plans. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable [38]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: Geopolitical uncertainties may lead to adjustments in crude oil prices [38]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: PX may oscillate in the short term. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [38][39]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell by 1.05% [40]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PTA operating rate has increased slightly, and polyester demand is stable. PTA exports have increased significantly in November. Processing fees have adjusted to a neutral level [40]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: Crude oil prices may be affected by geopolitical factors [40]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: PTA may oscillate in the short term. Investors should operate cautiously and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell by 0.21% [41]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The operating rate has increased, and port inventory is under pressure. The planned arrival of goods at the port has increased. Downstream demand support has weakened slightly [41][42]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors are advised to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell by 0.86% [43]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is at a relatively high level, and terminal factories are digesting raw material inventory. Short - fiber inventory is low, providing some support. The market is mainly driven by cost [43]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Short - fiber may oscillate following raw material prices. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell by 0.59% [44]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The operating rate has decreased slightly, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. Exports have increased. The market is mainly driven by cost [44][45]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: Raw material prices may be affected by geopolitical factors [45]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Bottle - chip may oscillate following cost. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [45]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, carbonate lithium futures rose by 2.46% [46]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Production is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving. Social inventory is decreasing [46]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The price is supported in the short term, but investors should operate cautiously as it may be affected by news [46]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, copper futures fell by 1.61% [47]. - **Industry News**: There are labor disputes at a Chilean copper mine and delays in an Ecuadorian copper mine project [48]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: US economic data is mixed, and there are geopolitical risks. China has introduced policies for equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement [48]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The copper concentrate processing fee for the first quarter of next year has declined, and COMEX copper inventory is increasing. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and social inventory is rising [48]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Copper prices are at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the price due to weak demand and high - price suppression [48][49]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, aluminum and alumina futures declined, with aluminum falling by 1.17% and alumina by 2.95% [50]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The price of imported ore from Guinea has decreased, and the supply of alumina is in excess. Aluminum production is stable, but the proportion of molten aluminum has decreased. Aluminum processing enterprise operating rates have declined [50]. - **Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission plans to upgrade the alumina industry [50]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Alumina prices may rebound, but there is a risk of a decline. Aluminum prices are at a high level, but the upward space is limited [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell by 1.02% [52]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has fallen below the smelting cost, and refined zinc production is likely to decrease. Consumption is in the off - season, but there is still rigid demand. Overseas supply has improved [52]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Zinc prices have risen, but investors should be cautious about chasing the price due to the approaching off - season and high - price suppression [52][53]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lead futures fell by 1.31% [54]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is weak due to maintenance and environmental regulations. Consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is low [54]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range [54][55]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin futures fell by 1.53% [56]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts, slow复产 of mines in Wa State, and strict crackdown on illegal mines in Indonesia. Demand has some resilience supported by emerging industries. Inventory is decreasing [56]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Tin prices are supported, but there may be short - term corrections. Investors should control risks [56][57]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell by 4.48% [58]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Indonesia has adjusted its nickel ore quota and may tax associated resources. Nickel production costs are expected to rise. Supply is affected by the crackdown on illegal mines and the rainy season in the Philippines. Demand is weak as stainless steel is in the off - season and downstream consumption is sluggish. Inventory is relatively high [58]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: First - grade nickel is in excess. Investors should pay attention to Indonesian policies [58]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell by 0.32%, and soybean oil futures rose by 0.20% [59]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Brazilian soybean planting is almost complete, and US soybean export progress is slow. Oil mill soybean crushing volume has decreased, and inventory pressure is still high. Soybean meal demand is growing moderately, and soybean oil demand has slightly improved [59][60]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors can consider long positions in soybean meal at low - cost support levels and long positions in soybean oil call options at low levels [60]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has risen for two consecutive months [61]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax, which supports prices, but inventory is expected to increase. Chinese palm oil imports have increased significantly in November, and inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years [61]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors can consider long positions after pull - backs [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed prices have continued to rise [63]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: There are discussions about Canadian farmers' planting plans. Chinese rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have shown different trends in November. Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil inventories are at different levels in the past seven years [63]. - **Industry News**: There will be trade negotiations between the US and Canada, and the Canadian Prime Minister will visit China [63]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors can consider widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil if Canadian rapeseed imports increase [63][64]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell significantly due to profit - taking [65]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly, and the US production forecast has also increased. Global production is expected to decrease slightly. Cotton exports in November showed mixed results. Domestic cotton acquisition is almost complete, and future planting area is expected to decrease [65][66]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term [67][68]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded, and overseas raw sugar futures fluctuated slightly [69]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, domestic sugar production in Guangxi decreased in December. Indian sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and there will be a large inventory surplus. Chinese sugar imports in November decreased year - on - year but increased in the first 11 months [69][70]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The upward space for sugar prices may be limited after the significant rebound [71][72]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated [73]. - **Supply - Demand Situation

Group 1 - The small metal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with cobalt, germanium, and tungsten leading the gains [1] - China’s tungsten industry is expected to see a long-term supply-demand tightness, with tungsten prices likely to rise systematically [1] - Global tungsten supply-demand balance has been in a shortage since 2021 and is expected to continue this trend from 2023 to 2027 [1] Group 2 - Cobalt supply is facing a rigid shortage, with the Democratic Republic of Congo's quota expected to reduce global cobalt supply to 200,000 tons [1] - Global cobalt consumption is projected to grow, reaching 221,000 tons and 231,000 tons in 2026 and 2027 respectively [1] - The supply of key metals is highly rigid, with mining expansion cycles lasting 3-5 years, and environmental regulations raising extraction thresholds [2] Group 3 - The Rare Metals ETF has seen a significant increase, with a latest scale of 1.162 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [2] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 10 days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 84.71 million yuan [2] - The ETF closely tracks the China Rare Metals Theme Index, with lithium, rare earths, and cobalt making up nearly 30% of its total weight [3]