银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，由于美元走弱，伦敦金小幅回升，并收复 3300 美元关口，最终 | | 研究员：王伟 | 收涨 0.88%，收报 3302.15 美元/盎司；伦敦银最终收涨 0.36%，报 36.09 美元/盎司。受 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 0.54%，报 768.98 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.10%，报 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 8722 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数日内震荡下行，跌破 97 关口，最终收跌 0.54%，报 96.875。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率高开低走，收报 4.23%。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：正试图避免对贸易谈判发表具体评论。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market remains optimistic despite tariff concerns, with the MSCI global index reaching new highs and continuing its upward trend in the second half of the year [1] Market Performance - The MSCI global index has risen for four consecutive days, reaching a record high, while Asian and European stock markets have seen slight increases [1] - U.S. stock index futures are slightly down, with the S&P 500 futures showing a minor decline of approximately 0.2% [7][8] - European stocks have also experienced slight gains, with the German DAX30 and the UK FTSE 100 indices opening up by 0.17% and 0.18% respectively [3] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 1.2% due to tariff threats from Trump, while the South Korean Seoul Composite Index rose by 0.6% [4][8] Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.1%, while the Japanese yen appreciated by about 0.4% [4] - Gold prices increased by approximately 0.8%, and silver rose by about 0.7% [6] - International oil prices saw a short-term drop, with WTI crude oil falling below $65 per barrel, currently at $64.99 [7] Economic Context - Analysts suggest that market sentiment may be highly sensitive to developments in trade policy as the earnings season approaches and tariff deadlines loom [9] - The U.S. market is at historical highs amid macroeconomic uncertainties, primarily driven by U.S. policies [9] - The first half of the year saw U.S. stocks reach new highs due to expectations of successful trade negotiations and rising Fed rate cut expectations, while the dollar index experienced a 10.8% decline, marking its worst first half since 1973 [9]

Group 1 - Canada announced the cancellation of the planned digital services tax, originally set to take effect on June 30, in hopes of reaching a "reciprocal comprehensive trade agreement" with the U.S. [1] - The Canadian Finance Minister will soon propose legislation to abolish the digital services tax, following an agreement between Canadian Prime Minister Carney and U.S. President Trump to resume negotiations by July 21 [1][3] - The digital services tax, which was set at 3% and could have retroactive implications, was seen as a significant financial burden on U.S. tech companies, potentially amounting to $2 billion in additional taxes [3][4] Group 2 - Trump's strong reaction to Canada's proposed tax indicates that the U.S. will not tolerate similar measures from other countries, particularly in trade negotiations [4] - The digital services tax was initially proposed in 2020 and is scheduled to be officially implemented in June 2024, suggesting that it was not solely a bargaining chip in U.S.-Canada negotiations [4] - The recent developments reflect a broader context of U.S. trade policy under Trump, emphasizing protection for American tech companies and signaling to other nations about the consequences of targeting U.S. firms [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cancellation of the digital services tax by Canada to promote trade negotiations with the US led to a full - scale increase in the three major US stock indices. China's manufacturing PMI has rebounded for two consecutive months. Affected by pre - export rush, both supply and demand have improved, but it is still below the boom - bust line, and the economy is in the bottom - building stage. Benefiting from the simultaneous improvement of the domestic and overseas environments, the stock index is in the repair period after a short - term sharp rise [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Charts - In China, in June, the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries have been in the expansion range for two consecutive months. Overseas, Fed's Bostic still expects the Fed to cut interest rates once this year and three times next year [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - A - share three major indices fluctuated and rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.59% to close at 3444.43 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.35%. In the industry, most sector indices rose, with national defense and military industry, media, communication, and electronics industries leading the gains. Only the banking, non - banking finance, and transportation industries closed down. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly to 1.5 trillion yuan. The three major US stock indices closed up, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.63% to 44094.77 points [1]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the basis trend was differentiated, and the discount of the near - month contracts of IC and IM deepened. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously [2].

据英国金融时报：美国官员正寻求与最积极参与贸易谈判的国家达成分阶段协议，力争在7月9日之前达 成一致。 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed higher on June 30, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new all-time closing highs [1] - For the first half of the year, the Nasdaq rose by 5.48%, the Dow Jones increased by 3.64%, and the S&P 500 gained 5.5% [1] - On June 30, the Dow Jones rose by 0.63% to 44094.77 points, the Nasdaq increased by 0.47% to 20369.73 points, and the S&P 500 gained 0.52% to 6204.95 points [1] Commodity Prices - Gold prices increased, with spot gold rising by 0.88% to $3302.155 per ounce, and gold futures up by 0.83% to $3315.0 per ounce [5] - Oil prices fell, with Morgan Stanley predicting that Brent crude oil prices may drop to around $60 per barrel by early next year [1][6] Technology Sector - The US technology giants index saw a slight increase of 0.06%, with Apple rising by 2.03%, Meta by 0.61%, and Microsoft by 0.30% [3] - However, Tesla fell by 1.84%, Amazon by 1.75%, and Alphabet by 0.49% [3] Geopolitical and Regulatory Developments - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the potential for OPEC+ to increase production in August have improved oil supply expectations [6] - The European Commission emphasized that the EU's digital market and service laws are not part of trade negotiations with the US [6] Economic Policy and Interest Rates - Former President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates, suggesting that the US could save trillions in interest costs [7][8] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley believe the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near future remains low, despite market expectations increasing for potential cuts in July and September [8]

日本内阁官房长官林芳正：日本不会在对美贸易谈判中做出任何牺牲农业的举动。 ...

日本农林水产大臣：将继续与各部门合作，在与美国的贸易谈判中最大限度地实现日本的国家利益。 ...

Group 1: Canada and US Trade Negotiations - Canada has agreed to cancel its digital services tax to facilitate trade negotiations with the US, which the White House claims is a significant victory for American tech companies [2][3] - The US will "immediately resume" trade talks with Canada following the cancellation of the digital services tax, with a goal to reach an agreement by July 21 [2][3] - The White House attributes this change to President Trump's strong negotiation style and emphasizes the importance of maintaining good trade relations with the US [2][3] Group 2: EU's Position on Digital Legislation - The European Union has stated that its digital legislation, including the Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act, will not be part of the trade negotiations with the US [4] - The EU remains firm on its sovereign decision-making regarding digital legislation and aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by July 9 [4][5] - The US has previously criticized the EU's digital regulations as unfair and has imposed significant fines on American companies for violations [4][5] Group 3: US-Japan Trade Relations - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Japan's refusal to import US rice despite facing a rice shortage, indicating a potential letter to Japan regarding trade [6][7] - Trump has labeled the US-Japan trade relationship as "unfair," highlighting a significant trade deficit and suggesting that Japan should import more US goods [7][8] - The US has imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars, and negotiations with Japan regarding tariffs are ongoing, with a deadline set for July 9 [8]