Core Viewpoint - The ambitious 90-day trade negotiation plan of the Trump administration is facing significant challenges, particularly with Japan, where negotiations have stalled over auto tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: US-Japan Trade Negotiations - After weeks of negotiations, the US and Japan have severe disagreements on auto tariffs, with Japan refusing to accept any agreement that retains the 25% tariff imposed by Trump [1][2]. - Trump indicated that he might unilaterally impose tariffs on Japanese imports, suggesting potential rates of "30% or 35% or any number we determine" [1]. - The Japanese government is under political pressure, especially with the upcoming Senate elections on July 20, making it difficult for them to concede on tariff issues [2]. Group 2: Broader Trade Negotiations - The US is also facing difficulties in trade negotiations with other major partners, including Canada and South Korea, with stalled talks following the US's unexpected increase in steel tariffs on Canada [2][3]. - Negotiations with Canada were briefly interrupted but resumed after Canada canceled its digital services tax plan, aiming for an agreement by July 21 [3]. - The complexity of negotiations with South Korea is heightened by issues surrounding digital trade regulations, which have caused dissatisfaction among US trade representatives [3]. Group 3: Expectations and Challenges - Despite the White House's claims of working tirelessly to renegotiate trade agreements, there is acknowledgment from Republican senators that reaching actual agreements may take longer than anticipated [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Thai business community believes that trade negotiations are unlikely to conclude quickly, indicating ongoing challenges in international trade relations [1] Group 1: Trade Outlook - Exports are expected to decline by over 10% year-on-year in the second half of the year, reflecting a significant downturn in trade performance [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - There is a call for the Bank of Thailand to lower the benchmark interest rate to manage the exchange rate of the Thai baht, suggesting concerns over currency stability [1]

金十数据7月2日讯，据朝日新闻报道，日本贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正安排最早于本周末前往美国进行贸易 谈判。这将是赤泽亮正第八次前往美国进行贸易谈判。财经网站Forexlive分析师Justin Low表示，尽管 访问了很多次，但情况与他第一次访问时大致相同。"奔跑的表演"至少让他们看起来处境艰难。但我想 只有时间才能证明。距离7月9日的最后期限还有一周，特朗普似乎正在失去耐心。 日本贸易谈判代表将"八顾茅庐"，但或许将再次无功而返 ...

朝日新闻：日本关税谈判代表赤泽亮正安排最早于本周末访问美国，进行贸易谈判。 ...

Trade Negotiations - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan has intensified, with President Trump expressing skepticism about reaching an agreement and threatening tariffs as high as 30% to 35% on Japanese imports, significantly higher than the previously announced 24% [2] Stock Market Volatility - On July 1, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq down 0.82% and the Dow Jones up 400.17 points (0.91% increase). Notably, Tesla's stock plummeted over 5%, resulting in a loss of approximately $54.5 billion (around 390.5 billion RMB) in market value due to Trump's comments regarding Elon Musk [3] - Nvidia's stock also fell over 2% after internal insiders sold more than $1 billion in company shares over the past 12 months, raising concerns about its internal operations and executive confidence [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks, rose 0.20%, while other popular Chinese stocks like Tiger Brokers and Futu Holdings declined, indicating a mixed performance in the market [3] Fiscal Policy - The U.S. Senate passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill on July 1, which now requires re-evaluation by the House of Representatives due to significant amendments. The outcome of this fiscal policy is uncertain and could have profound implications for the U.S. economy and global investors [4] Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that while the U.S. economy is in good shape, the impact of tariffs will soon be reflected in inflation data. Most Fed members expect a rate cut later this year, with Goldman Sachs predicting cuts in September, October, and December, although the likelihood of a July cut depends on upcoming employment data [5]

美国与日本的贸易谈判陷入僵局。 据最新消息，美国总统特朗普明确表示不会推迟7月9日恢复更高关税的最后期限，并加大对日本等贸易伙伴的 施压力度。 特朗普威胁称，可以对从日本进口的商品征收"30%或35%或任何我们确定的数字"的关税。受此影响，7月2 日，日本股市开盘后，日经225指数直线跳水，跌幅一度扩大至1.35%，随后跌幅有所收窄。 相比之下，美国与印度的贸易谈判进展似乎比较顺利。特朗普表示，他认为印度准备降低对美国企业的贸易壁 垒，这可能为达成协议铺平道路，从而让印度避开26%的关税。 特朗普：不推迟 据央视新闻客户端，美东时间7月1日，特朗普在"空军一号"总统专机上表示，他没有考虑延长各国与美国谈判 贸易协议的7月9日截止日期，并对与日本能否达成协议表示怀疑。 特朗普指出，美方已经和日本打过交道，不确定是否会达成协议，他表示："我怀疑我们和日本能否达成协 议，他们非常强硬。你必须明白，他们被宠坏了。" 特朗普称，他可以对从日本进口的商品征收"30%或35%或任何我们确定的数字"的关税，而这远高于他在4月2 日宣布的对日本商品的24%的关税税率。 据新华社，特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"，引发美国 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is increasing pressure on trade partners as the 90-day suspension period for "reciprocal tariffs" approaches its end on July 9 [1][6] - President Trump expressed disappointment over U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, particularly regarding Japan's refusal to purchase U.S. rice despite facing a rice shortage [1][3] - Japan's government officials have stated that they will not sacrifice agricultural interests in trade negotiations with the U.S. [3][4] Group 2 - Japan's agricultural sector is a significant political concern for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, especially with upcoming elections [4][5] - The U.S. has the option to export rice to Japan tariff-free up to a limit of 770,000 tons, but any imports beyond that are subject to tariffs [4] - Japan is insisting on the removal of tariffs on its automotive exports to the U.S., which has led to dissatisfaction among U.S. automakers [5][6] Group 3 - The U.S. is preparing to notify countries of potential tariff increases as the July 9 deadline approaches, with rates potentially rising from temporary levels of 10% back to 11% to 50% [6][7] - The EU is willing to negotiate a trade arrangement with the U.S. but seeks lower tariffs on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and aircraft [6][7] - There are four possible outcomes for U.S.-EU negotiations, including reaching an acceptable agreement or extending the negotiation period [7] Group 4 - India is expected to reach a temporary trade agreement with the U.S., which may include increased imports of natural gas and reduced tariffs on thousands of goods [8] - The Trump administration's tariff policies are causing concerns among various countries, as they fear further economic repercussions in key industries like steel and automotive [8][9] - A significant portion of U.S. companies believe that establishing new domestic supply chains would significantly increase their costs, leading many to consider relocating to countries with lower tariffs [9]

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，由于美元走弱，伦敦金小幅回升，并收复 3300 美元关口，最终 | | 研究员：王伟 | 收涨 0.88%，收报 3302.15 美元/盎司；伦敦银最终收涨 0.36%，报 36.09 美元/盎司。受 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 0.54%，报 768.98 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.10%，报 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 8722 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数日内震荡下行，跌破 97 关口，最终收跌 0.54%，报 96.875。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率高开低走，收报 4.23%。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：正试图避免对贸易谈判发表具体评论。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market remains optimistic despite tariff concerns, with the MSCI global index reaching new highs and continuing its upward trend in the second half of the year [1] Market Performance - The MSCI global index has risen for four consecutive days, reaching a record high, while Asian and European stock markets have seen slight increases [1] - U.S. stock index futures are slightly down, with the S&P 500 futures showing a minor decline of approximately 0.2% [7][8] - European stocks have also experienced slight gains, with the German DAX30 and the UK FTSE 100 indices opening up by 0.17% and 0.18% respectively [3] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 1.2% due to tariff threats from Trump, while the South Korean Seoul Composite Index rose by 0.6% [4][8] Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.1%, while the Japanese yen appreciated by about 0.4% [4] - Gold prices increased by approximately 0.8%, and silver rose by about 0.7% [6] - International oil prices saw a short-term drop, with WTI crude oil falling below $65 per barrel, currently at $64.99 [7] Economic Context - Analysts suggest that market sentiment may be highly sensitive to developments in trade policy as the earnings season approaches and tariff deadlines loom [9] - The U.S. market is at historical highs amid macroeconomic uncertainties, primarily driven by U.S. policies [9] - The first half of the year saw U.S. stocks reach new highs due to expectations of successful trade negotiations and rising Fed rate cut expectations, while the dollar index experienced a 10.8% decline, marking its worst first half since 1973 [9]