Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy, shifting focus towards consumption alongside investment to stimulate economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Direction - The report highlights the need to support and expand consumption, identifying it as a critical point for stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand [1] - The shift in macroeconomic policy direction is evident, moving from a focus on investment to a balanced approach that prioritizes consumption [1] Group 2: Economic Context - China's final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP remains lower compared to countries like the US and Japan, indicating significant potential for increasing consumption's contribution to economic growth [1] - The report notes that the current monetary growth is outpacing economic growth, yet prices remain low, suggesting that merely increasing money supply without improving supply-demand balance will not effectively boost demand [2] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability - The report indicates that the Chinese government's debt expansion is sustainable due to substantial state-owned assets and low government debt levels, especially in light of increased fiscal support this year [1] - Experts suggest that future fiscal policies should adjust spending structures to focus more on areas that stimulate consumption, such as elderly care, childcare, and healthcare services [1] Group 4: Financial Support Policies - The report outlines the implementation of a comprehensive financial support policy introduced in May, aimed at promoting reasonable price recovery and enhancing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [2] - It emphasizes the need to lower bank funding costs and stabilize the foreign exchange market to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [2]

Core Viewpoints - The current consumer landscape in China shows a positive development trend, with a focus on enhancing consumption as a primary economic task [3][4][16] - The government is implementing policies to stimulate consumption, including financial support and strategic actions to transition from a "manufacturing powerhouse" to a "consumer powerhouse" [1][3] Consumer Development Trends - There is a rapid upgrade in consumer goods, with significant growth in service consumption sectors such as dining, culture, tourism, sports, and health [4][16] - New consumption highlights include inbound consumption, domestic "trendy" products, and digital consumption [4][16] Factors Contributing to Positive Consumer Trends - Increased income levels are releasing potential for service consumption, with a shift from survival-based spending to development and enjoyment-based spending [5][17] - Technological advancements are driving innovation in consumption models [5][17] - Improved supply levels are creating new demand opportunities [5][19] Policy Recommendations for Stimulating Consumption - Enhance consumer capacity by increasing labor remuneration and expanding the middle-income group [9][21] - Optimize the consumption environment through market regulation and consumer rights protection [10][22] - Reduce consumption restrictions in sectors like automotive and housing to promote market activity [11][23] - Improve supply quality by encouraging innovation in product development and service delivery [12][24] - Innovate consumption scenarios to meet diverse consumer needs through technology [13][25] - Strengthen modern circulation systems to enhance urban and rural commercial infrastructure [14][26] Challenges in Consumption Supply - Structural and technical challenges hinder the ability to meet evolving consumer demands [25][27] - There is a mismatch between high-end consumer demand and the supply of quality products [25][27] - Coordination issues within the supply chain affect responsiveness to market changes [25][27] Strategies for Enhancing Supply Efficiency - Focus on demand-driven supply chain reforms to align with consumer preferences for quality and sustainability [26][28] - Leverage digital technologies to improve supply chain transparency and efficiency [27][28] - Optimize the regulatory environment to reduce transaction costs and enhance market vitality [28][29]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，政策主要聚焦产业及主题投资领域。涉及"十五五"规划、国防军工、新能源材料、黄金等。 1 ）"十五五"规划 ： 6 月 25 日，总理在第十六届夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式提到，"过去 70 多年，我 们实施了 14 个五年规划，今年还将制定第 15 个五年规划"。 2 ）新能源材料 ： 6 月 23 日至 24 日，何立峰在河北调研新能源新材料产业发展，提出"持续推动 高端装备制造、智能光伏、清洁能源、新材料等企业创新发展，并综合整治内卷式竞争"。 3 ）国防军工 ： 6 月 24 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜 利 80 周年纪念活动总体安排。 9 月 3 日，北京天安门广场将隆重举行纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界 反法西斯战争胜利 80 周年大会，总书记将发表重要讲话。 4 ）黄金 ： 6 月 23 日，工信部等九部门印发《黄金产业高质量发展实施方案（ 2025-2027 年）》，提出到 2027 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The PMI for June is reported at 49.7, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment, with production and demand returning to expansion territory [8][9][13] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing completion, with most economic and social development indicators expected to be met, while some targets in innovation and green ecology still require effort [3][4] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to emphasize three key themes: transitional guidance, unwavering commitment to new productive forces, and adaptive economic strategies [2][4][5] Group 2: Agricultural Sector - The number of breeding sows slightly increased in May, while the price of pork is expected to show a downward trend year-on-year, with stable operations anticipated throughout the year [20][22] - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with an increase in market share for quality enterprises, despite a decline in export volume in May [20][23] - The price of yellow chickens is correlated with pork prices, suggesting potential upward movement in the future due to low supply levels [24]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic demand is a fundamental driving force for China's economic development, and expanding domestic demand is essential to meet the growing needs of the people for a better life [1][2] Group 1: Improvement of Consumption Environment - The consumption environment in China has been continuously improving, with enhanced consumer experience and better infrastructure such as modern logistics and online payment systems [1][2] - Various measures have been implemented to protect consumer rights, including the introduction of the Consumer Rights Protection Law and the establishment of online dispute resolution mechanisms [1][2] Group 2: Economic Impact - In the first quarter of this year, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with per capita consumer spending rising by 5.2% [2] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 2.8 percentage points to GDP growth, reinforcing its foundational role in economic development [2] Group 3: Policy Initiatives - The State Administration for Market Regulation and other departments have jointly issued a three-year action plan (2025-2027) to optimize the consumption environment, emphasizing the construction of a trustworthy, fair, convenient, and safe consumption environment [2] - A series of policy documents and measures have been introduced to improve quality standards, consumer rights protection, and address prominent issues raised by the public [2] Group 4: Collaborative Governance - Promoting a collaborative governance model involving businesses, social organizations, media, and consumers is essential for building a shared and well-managed consumption environment [5] - Strengthening industry self-regulation and enhancing the capabilities of consumer associations are crucial for improving consumer rights protection services [5]

6月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示，6 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.7%、50.5% 和50.7%，比5月份上升0.2个百分点、0.2个百分点和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升，我国经济景气 水平总体保持扩张。 与此同时，价格指数回升。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为48.4%和46.2%，均比5月上 升1.5个百分点，制造业市场价格总体水平有所改善。 "从两个价格指数的变化趋势来看，近期制造业上游原料端和下游产品端的价格走势协同性较好。5月 份、6月份，购进价格指数和出厂价格指数同向变化，变化幅度相当。"文韬说。 分行业看，三大重点行业继续扩张。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.4%、50.9% 和50.4%，均连续两个月位于扩张区间。其中，装备制造业生产指数和新订单指数均高于53.0%，相关 行业产需两端较为活跃。高耗能行业PMI为47.8%，比5月份上升0.8个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 文韬表示，下半年我国经济将重点推进"强内"和"稳外"工作。"强内"是继 ...

文｜经济学家、新质未来研究院院长 张奥平 6月30日，国家统计局发布了2025年6月制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数、综合PMI产出指 数。其中，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间。非制造 业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.7%，比上月上升0.3个百分 点，均高于临界点。 6月PMI录得数据为49.7%，虽较上月有所上升，但已连续3个月处于收缩区间，显示经济回升向好基础 尚不稳固。 截至2025年5月底，民营企业数量已突破5800万户，其中中小企业占比超过95%。因民营企业创造了 80%以上的城镇就业，中小企业经营压力大则会直接影响就业。6月从业人员指数为47.9%，比上月下降 0.2个百分点，低于临界点。 因当前经济主要矛盾仍为需求不足，且外需或将大幅放缓，笔者建议，各地区各部门应将扩大内需作为 下阶段首要工作任务。 财政政策方面，加快今年已安排的4.4万亿元地方政府专项债券、1.3万亿元超长期特别国债发行使用， 加力扩围落实"两重"建设与"两新"工作，为后续增量财政政策加码留出空间。货币政策方面，加快落实 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The report indicates that China's GDP growth is expected to maintain around 5% in 2025, with a focus on stabilizing the economy amidst external uncertainties [6][7] - Policies are being implemented to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market, with a push for supply-side structural reforms to promote reasonable price recovery [6][7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw an increase in economic growth, with indicators showing improvement, while the second quarter may see a slight decline due to external pressures [6][7] Group 2: Solar Energy Industry Insights - In May 2025, China's newly installed solar capacity reached 92.9 GW, marking a year-on-year increase of 388% and a month-on-month increase of 105.5% [8][12] - The report highlights that the export value of solar components in May was 17.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7% but a month-on-month increase of 7.2% [12] - The solar power generation in May 2025 increased by 7.3% year-on-year, contributing to 6.38% of the total industrial power generation in China [12][10] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Sanhua Intelligent Control - Sanhua Intelligent Control is projected to achieve revenue between 15.04 billion and 17.78 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% to 30% [13][15] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the high demand in the home appliance sector, particularly in air conditioning, with retail sales showing strong growth [13][14] - Sanhua's successful IPO raised a net amount of 9.177 billion HKD, which will be used for global capacity expansion and to seize new business opportunities [17]

Core Insights - The expansion of domestic demand is essential for promoting high-quality economic development, with leisure consumption being a key component of this strategy [1][2] - The Chinese government has prioritized the recovery and expansion of leisure consumption through various measures, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2] Leisure Consumption Market Recovery - Leisure consumption, particularly in tourism and sports, has shown a continuous recovery and growth trend, becoming an indispensable force in driving domestic demand [2] - Domestic tourism in China is projected to reach 5.615 billion trips and a total consumption scale of 5.75 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a significant recovery compared to 2022 [2] - The average spending per trip has increased to 1,024.04 yuan, with a notable rise in both the number of trips and total consumption compared to pre-pandemic levels [2] Impact on Related Industries - The recovery and expansion of leisure consumption positively impact various related industries, including transportation, accommodation, dining, shopping, and entertainment [3] - Leisure consumption has transitioned from being viewed as a luxury to becoming a necessity in the consumption structure of Chinese residents, making it a crucial part of the domestic demand strategy [3] Constraints on Leisure Consumption - Despite the positive recovery, several factors hinder the further expansion and quality improvement of leisure consumption, including weak consumer confidence and income growth [4][5] - The average annual increase in urban employment from 2022 to 2023 was only 1.3 million, significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, affecting consumer spending [4] - The decline in asset values since 2021 has led to a "negative wealth effect," further suppressing consumer spending [4] Supply-Side Challenges - The leisure consumption market faces structural supply-side issues, including insufficient high-quality offerings and low levels of innovation [5][6] - There is a significant gap between consumer demands for personalized and high-quality experiences and the current market supply, which often consists of generic products [5][6] Consumer Experience and Trust Issues - The leisure consumption environment is marred by market irregularities, such as price gouging and misleading promotions, which undermine consumer trust [7] - Poor infrastructure and service quality in popular tourist destinations further detract from the overall consumer experience [7] Recommendations for Enhancing Leisure Consumption - Strategies to enhance consumer capacity and expectations include improving employment levels and income distribution through tax policies and social security systems [8] - Encouraging innovation in leisure products and services to meet diverse consumer needs is essential for market growth [9] - Optimizing the consumer environment by addressing market order and enhancing infrastructure will help build consumer trust [11] - Implementing flexible vacation arrangements can increase leisure time for residents, thereby boosting leisure consumption [12]

本文字数：2337，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 今年二季度，受到美国关税政策变化的影响，制造业运行短期有所波动，但我国经济展现出了较强的 韧性，在短期放缓后迅速回稳。 国家统计局6月30日发布的6月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点， 连续两个月回升，制造业景气水平继续改善。非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2个百 分点。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示，6月份PMI指数小幅回升，表明一系列增量政策的效 果继续显现。订单类指数回升反映扩大内需政策效果有所显现；生产指数、采购量指数上升反映企业 生产经营活动有回暖趋势。同时应注意到PMI指数仍处荣枯线下，生产经营活动预期指数仍在下降， 反映需求不足的企业占比仍在扩大，市场引导的需求收缩对制造业生产投资的制约仍然突出。 2025.06. 30 张立群强调，当前宏观经济政策逆周期调节与市场引导的需求收缩正处相互角力的关键阶段，必须坚 持不懈持续加大扩内需各项政策力度，特别要显著加强政府公共产品投资力度，扩大投资规模，有效 有力带动制造业企业订单显著增加，带动制造业生产投资持续活跃。 产需指 ...