Economic Growth Overview - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2023 is 5.2% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and a slowdown to 4.8% in Q3 [1][4] - The economic performance aligns with expectations, influenced by external environmental challenges and the timing of policy implementations [4] Foreign Trade Performance - Despite concerns over foreign trade pressures due to the trade war starting in April, actual data shows a continuation of quarterly growth, with a notable 8.0% increase in September [4][5] - The total import and export volume for goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with Q1 growth at 4.5% and Q2 at 6% [5] Export Competitiveness - China's export competitiveness has shown remarkable resilience, particularly in non-U.S. markets, driven by innovation and large-scale production capabilities [7] - The country has effectively countered rising global trade protectionism by promoting trade liberalization, leading to significant expansion in new trade markets [7] Policy Directions for Q4 - The focus for Q4 policy will include maximizing the effectiveness of existing policy tools, targeting key areas of economic weakness, and enhancing market liquidity through monetary policy [7]

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, ranking among the top major economies [1][2] - The economic increment reached 39,679 billion yuan, an increase of 1,368 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1][2] Employment and Prices - The average urban unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.2%, consistent with the first half of the year [4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased by 0.1%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% [4] International Trade - China's foreign trade showed strong resilience, with import and export volumes reaching historical highs, and foreign exchange reserves maintained above 3.3 trillion USD [4][5] - The total value of goods imports and exports increased by 6.0% year-on-year in the third quarter [9] Industrial Development - The proportion of added value from high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing reached 16.7% and 35.9%, respectively [4] - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 14.0% year-on-year, significantly contributing to overall investment growth [6] New Economic Drivers - Industries such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing and electric vehicle production saw substantial growth, with increases of 29.8% and 29.7%, respectively [7] - The production of new energy vehicles and related products also experienced double-digit growth [7] Policy Impact - A series of policies have effectively stabilized the economy and supported long-term development, with consumer spending contributing 53.5% to economic growth [6] - The government has issued 300 billion yuan in special bonds to stimulate consumer demand through programs like "old for new" [6]

Economic Growth and Employment - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, accelerating by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year and the same period last year respectively, providing a solid foundation for employment and income stability [1] - The average urban unemployment rate from January to September was 5.2%, with quarterly averages of 5.3%, 5.0%, and 5.2%, showing overall stability in the employment situation [1] - Economic growth serves as a "ballast" and "stabilizer" for the job market, encouraging businesses to invest and expand, thus creating more job opportunities [1] Policy Support and Employment Measures - China has implemented targeted support measures for key employment groups, including special subsidies and expanded employment channels, aiming to deliver policy benefits to those in need [2] - The country is actively guiding and supporting the development of industries related to new productive forces, such as high-tech manufacturing, digital economy, and green industries, to create new employment opportunities [2] Resident Income and Consumption - The per capita disposable income of residents reached 32,509 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.1% year-on-year, with a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price factors, aligning with economic growth [3] - The ratio of urban to rural residents' disposable income decreased from 2.46 to 2.43, indicating a slight improvement in income distribution [3] - The increase in wage income, net operating income, and net transfer income are the main factors supporting the growth of residents' income [3] Price Trends and Market Signals - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6%, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with a narrower decline of 2.9% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, reflecting an improvement in domestic market competition and price recovery in certain industries [4]

Group 1 - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year [1] - International institutions noted strong resilience in China's foreign trade despite a challenging external environment [3] - The export structure has upgraded, reflecting a higher "new content" [3] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China highlighted that more exports are now high-tech capital goods rather than just primary and consumer goods, indicating an improvement in China's industrial competitiveness [5] - China has a strong first-mover advantage in several advanced industries, including next-generation smart driving cars, lithium batteries, humanoid robots, and biopharmaceuticals [5] Group 3 - Institutions believe that China's foreign trade sector is actively expanding markets, providing strong support for export growth and injecting vitality into regional and global economic development [7] - UBS's Asia-Pacific economist noted significant growth in Chinese exports, particularly towards non-U.S. regions, with trade with ASEAN maintaining double-digit growth [9] Group 4 - China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36.5877 trillion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year [11] - Experts from international institutions believe that macro policies are driving a robust recovery in the domestic consumption market, showcasing diversification and upgrading trends [11] Group 5 - Invesco's Asia-Pacific global market strategist pointed out that domestic consumption continued to recover in the third quarter due to policies like consumer subsidies and holiday consumption incentives [13] - Emerging consumption trends include live shopping, instant retail, and a growing preference for experiential and digital consumption [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The economic growth rate in Q3 2025 met expectations, but due to the high base caused by policy stimulus in Q4 2024, the growth rate in Q4 2025 may be the lowest of the year. China is expected to achieve an annual economic growth target of around 5% in 2025 [4][22][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs GDP - In Q3 2025, China's GDP grew 4.8% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were 5.4% and 5.2% respectively. The Q3 GDP grew 1.1% quarter-on-quarter. The cumulative GDP growth in the first three quarters was 5.2% year-on-year [1][5]. Investment - From January to September, national fixed - asset investment decreased 0.5% year-on-year, against a market expectation of flat growth. In September, fixed - asset investment decreased 0.07% month-on-month, showing an eight - month consecutive decline [2][8]. - From January to September, infrastructure investment (broad sense) grew 3.3% year-on-year, while narrow - sense infrastructure investment grew 1.1% year-on-year. Manufacturing investment grew 4.0% year-on-year, and real estate development investment decreased 13.9% year-on-year [2][8]. - In September, manufacturing investment decreased 1.9% year-on-year, and narrow - sense infrastructure investment decreased 4.6% year-on-year [8]. Real Estate - From January to September, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 5.5% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased 7.9% year-on-year. In September, the sales of new commercial housing declined at an accelerated pace [11]. - In September, the prices of second - hand residential properties in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline. The prices in first - tier cities decreased 1.0% month-on-month, and the declines in second - and third - tier cities widened [11]. - In September, the funds available to real estate development enterprises decreased 11.0% year-on-year. The new construction area decreased 15.0% year-on-year, and the completed area increased 0.39% year-on-year [12]. Industry - In September, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises grew 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. The product sales rate was 96.7%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year but 2.1 percentage points lower than in September 2019 [3][13]. - In Q3 2025, the capacity utilization rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 74.6%, the lowest in the same period since 2017, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [14]. Foreign Trade - In September, China's exports denominated in US dollars grew 8.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. The overall export growth in the first nine months was 6.1%, higher than the same period last year, thanks to export diversification. However, the export growth rate is likely to decline in Q4 due to the high base in Q4 last year [3][15][16]. Consumption - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 3.0% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations. The growth rate of consumer goods sales by限额以上 units in some categories slowed down, mainly due to high base effects and subsidy reductions [4][18]. Employment - In September, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and up 0.1 percentage point from the same month last year [4][21]. Policy and Outlook - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments to support debt resolution and project construction. About 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments may be issued in Q4 [4][22][24]. - The suspension of 24% ad - valorem tariffs between China and the US is likely to be extended after November 10 [4][24].

Group 1: Economic Overview - The Chinese economy is showing steady growth and continues to play a major role as a driver of global economic growth, despite facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and technological changes [7][8]. - China's GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with a third-quarter growth rate of 4.8%, indicating resilience amid external pressures and internal transitions [13]. - The recent CPI data shows a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% in October, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%, reflecting low but improving price levels [6][14]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Finance will continue to advance the new local government debt limit for 2026 to support key projects, with an increase of 1,000 billion yuan compared to the previous year [8][9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has revised the Corporate Governance Code for listed companies, effective January 1, 2026, focusing on enhancing the supervision of directors and senior management, and improving incentive mechanisms [9][10]. - The revisions aim to strengthen regulatory constraints on key stakeholders in listed companies, transitioning governance from mere compliance to effective performance enhancement [10][11]. Group 3: International Relations - Recent communications between Chinese and U.S. officials indicate a mutual desire to resolve trade differences through dialogue, which could positively impact bilateral economic relations and market sentiment [11][12].

Group 1 - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters is 5.2%, showing resilience amid external challenges and ranking among the top major economies globally [3] - The high-tech manufacturing sector's value added increased by 9.6%, with significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and green energy consumption [4] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365.877 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%, with final consumption contributing 53.5% to economic growth [5] Group 2 - The total value of China's goods trade reached 33.61 trillion yuan, marking a 4% year-on-year increase and setting a historical high for the same period [6] - Market activity has improved significantly, with cargo and passenger turnover increasing by 4.8% and 4.4% respectively, and stock trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen rising by 106.8% [7] - The government remains optimistic about achieving annual economic targets, supported by ample policy space and tools to address various risks [8]

Core Viewpoint - The resilience and potential of China's economy remain unchanged despite global economic challenges, achieving a 5.2% growth rate in 2023, positioning it as a stable and reliable source of global economic growth [1] Economic Performance - China's economy grew by 5.2% this year, showcasing its strong adaptability and resilience in the face of external uncertainties and challenges [1] - This growth rate ranks among the top in major economies globally, highlighting China's role as a stable driver of economic growth [1] External Challenges - The global economy is experiencing insufficient growth momentum, characterized by rising trade protectionism, geopolitical conflicts, and international trade frictions [1] - These external factors have intensified the adverse impacts on domestic effective demand, leading to operational difficulties for some enterprises [1] Internal Strengths - The long-term stable development of China's economy is attributed to a combination of systemic advantages, supply advantages, demand advantages, and talent advantages, which work together to create a strong synergy [1]

Core Insights - The recent economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics signal positive trends in China's economy, with both CPI and PPI showing signs of recovery [1][2] Demand Side Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shifted from flat to rising, with the core CPI returning to a year-on-year increase of 1% after 19 months, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] - The core CPI's consistent growth over five months reflects an increase in consumer willingness to spend, suggesting healthy growth in overall economic demand [3][4] Supply Side Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline, indicating a steady recovery in domestic demand [4] - The improvement in PPI is linked to enhanced supply-side dynamics, with price declines in certain sectors like black and non-ferrous metals slowing down, while prices for consumer goods such as nutritional foods are rising [4][5] Economic Balance and Future Outlook - The interplay between rising CPI and narrowing PPI reflects a preliminary success in achieving a dynamic balance between supply and demand [5] - Continued macroeconomic policies are essential for maintaining this balance, with expectations of sustained growth in GDP, stable investment, and resilient foreign trade contributing to a more robust economic outlook for China [5]

Core Insights - The main challenges for China's economic growth have shifted to two key points, with some previous pressures easing [1][3][9] Group 1: Economic Environment Changes - The private economy has shown significant improvement since 2025, with market confidence gradually recovering [3] - Local government debt pressure has been alleviated due to national fiscal support in the second half of 2024, demonstrating effective debt risk control [3] - However, the pressures from real estate adjustments and weak consumption have intensified, becoming the most prominent drag on current economic growth [3][9] Group 2: Real Estate Market - Stabilizing the real estate market has been a crucial economic goal since early 2025, but data indicates a continuous decline in second-hand housing prices across various city tiers [5] - First-tier cities have also experienced a decline in housing prices since April, with a notable acceleration in price drops observed after May [5] - The adjustment pressure in the real estate sector significantly impacts economic growth, as its support for widespread employment is irreplaceable by new productivity [5] Group 3: Consumer Market - Despite government policies promoting trade-in for home appliances, automobiles, and electronics, consumer spending remains relatively weak [6] - Consumer sentiment can be gauged from price data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% in the first half of 2025, indicating deflation [7] - The latest August price data reflects an expanded year-on-year decline of 0.4%, suggesting a deepening downward trend [7] Group 4: Future Economic Growth - For a large economy like China, relying on export-driven growth is increasingly challenging, especially when transitioning from a middle-income to a high-income economy, which typically depends on domestic consumption [9] - While China has excelled in the real economy and manufacturing investments, continued reliance on rapid manufacturing growth faces difficulties due to rising global trade protectionism and shrinking global trade [9] - Overall, addressing the persistent pressures from real estate adjustments and weak consumption is essential for achieving stable and sustainable economic growth [9]