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格林大华期货国债早盘提示-20250425
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 03:12
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a “slightly long” rating for Treasury bonds in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View - The first - quarter economic data of China is good with GDP growing 5.4% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.2%. However, due to the US tariff increase, the Chinese economy will face challenges in the second quarter, and domestic incremental hedging policies may be introduced. Treasury futures may fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, Treasury futures opened higher across the board. After rising in the morning, they declined. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury futures main contract TL2506 fell 0.08%, the 10 - year T2506 fell 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2506 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2506 fell 0.05% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open market**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 2180 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 2455 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275 billion yuan [1] - **Funds market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.60% (1.63% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.72% (1.65% the previous day) [1] - **Cash bond market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The 2 - year yield rose 0.56 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 0.91 BP to 1.55%, the 10 - year rose 0.29 BP to 1.66%, and the 30 - year rose 0.48 BP to 1.93% [1] - **Treasury bond issuance**: On April 24, the Ministry of Finance issued three special Treasury bonds, including 165 billion yuan of 5 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.45%, 50 billion yuan of 20 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.98%, and 71 billion yuan of 30 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.88% [1] - **Sino - US trade**: As of April 24, there were no Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The US should cancel all unilateral tariffs on China through equal dialogue [1] - **MLF operation**: The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on April 25, with 100 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan [1][3] 3.3 Market Logic - The good first - quarter economic data is due to policy support and export rush. But the US tariff increase will pose challenges to the Chinese economy in the second quarter. The issuance of special Treasury bonds on April 24 did not significantly impact the funds market. The Wande All - A Index fell slightly on Thursday, and Treasury futures declined in the afternoon. The high Sino - US tariffs are difficult to resolve in the short - term [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3]
格林大华期货研究院专题报告:首季开门红,二季迎挑战
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-16 09:08
期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年4月16日 | 研究员: 刘洋 | | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号:F3063825 | | | 交易咨询证号:Z0016580 | | | 联系方式: | liuyang18036@greendh. | | com | | 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间:2025年4月16日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 首季开门红 二季迎挑战 摘要 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格: 一季度中国GDP同比增长5.4%,市场预期5.2%,去年四季度GD P同比增长5.4%。从环比看,今年一季度环比增长1.2%,延续了去年 三季度以来较好的环比增长,实现了开门红。1-3月份,全国固定资 产投资同比增长4.2%,市场预期4.0%,1-2月份为4.1%。分类来看, 1-3月广义基建投资(含电力)同比增长11.5%,市场预期增长7.2% ,1-2月增长9.95%。1-3月制造业投资同比增长9.1%,市场预期增长 8.9%,1-2月增长9.0%。1-3月份,全国房地产开发投资同比下降9. 9%,市场预期下降10.2%,1-2月下降9. ...