美国财长贝森特：（就债务上限）我们有望在周五按计划进行投票。 ...

美国财长贝森特：如果法院干涉特朗普的关税措施，债务上限的X日期可能会改变。 ...

美国财长贝森特谈债务上限问题称，未来48小时内会有进展。 ...

美国总统特朗普：我们正在解决债务上限问题。 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 特朗普的支出与税改法案若最终通过实施，未来十年将使联邦债务增加2.8万亿美元 智通财经 APP 获悉，美国国会预算办公室 (CBO) 与国会联合税收委员会 (JCT) 近日联合发布的一项 评估显示， 特朗普的支出与税改法案若最终通过实施，未来十年将使联邦债务增加 2.8 万亿美元。 此前 CBO 曾做出不含宏观经济影响的初步评估， 预计该法案将在 2025 年至 2034 年间增加 2.4 万亿 美元的联邦债务。 而最新版本则将经济增长和利率变化纳入考虑，得出更高的预算赤字估算。 具体而言， CBO 预计该法案将在未来十年内推动实际 GDP 增长 0.5 个百分点，但也将使 10 年期美 国国债利率上升 0.14 个百分点。 利率上升导致的借款成本增长超过了经济增长带来的税收收入增 加，从而加剧了财政赤字。 在包括政府新增借款需求的估算后， CBO 预计该法案将在 2034 年前使公共持有的联邦债务增加 3.3 万亿美元，占 GDP 的比重将上升至 124%，高于 CBO 当前预测基线下的 117%。 白宫方面暂未对 CBO 的评估作出回应。此前白宫官员曾表示，CBO 的计算方法存在问题， ...

5 月经济运行总体平稳；税期资金面保持宽松，债市以震荡为主 【内容摘要】 6 月 16 日，央行连续净投放，税期资金面保持宽松；债市以震荡为主，短券表 现稍强；转债市场主要指数集体跟涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要 欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【5 月经济运行总体平稳，消费市场延续向好势头】国家统计局 6 月 16 日发布的数据显示， 5 月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 6.4%，1-5 月全 国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长 3.7%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，5 月，随着 政策组合效应持续释放，稳经济促发展效果显现，国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势， 充分展现了我国经济的韧性和活力。下阶段，要统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移 办好自己的事，把扩大内需、做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，着力稳就业稳经济推动高 质量发展，推动经济持续健康发展。 【国家统计局：5 月份各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅继续收窄】6 月 16 日，国家统计 局公布 70 城房价数据，5 月份，各线城市房价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The revised economic plan proposed by Senate Republicans aims to cut trillions in taxes for families and businesses, but at the cost of reducing healthcare coverage for low-income Americans and increasing the national deficit [1][2]. Tax Cuts and Provisions - The new version of the bill expands certain tax cuts while raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, compared to the House version's $4 trillion [1]. - The plan seeks to make three corporate tax cuts permanent, including R&D expense deductions, expanded interest expense deductions, and immediate expensing for new equipment [2]. - The current $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT) remains as a placeholder, with ongoing negotiations expected [1][2]. Healthcare and Medicaid Changes - The Senate version proposes more aggressive cuts to Medicaid for low-income and disabled individuals, limiting states' options for funding [2][3]. - The bill also restricts new taxes or increases on healthcare providers in states that did not expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act [3]. Child and Elderly Tax Credits - The plan permanently expands the child tax credit to $2,200 per child and introduces a new $6,000 deduction for seniors [3]. Energy Incentives - The bill will terminate the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit within 180 days of enactment and eliminate subsidies for wind and solar energy [3]. Legislative Timeline and Political Context - Senate Republicans aim to pass the bill before July 4, with President Trump pressuring lawmakers to reach an agreement on what he calls the "great beautiful bill" [3][4]. - The release of the Senate bill coincides with efforts by Trump's allies to defend the tax cuts from his first term, which they argue stimulated corporate investment [4].

| l涨难跌，建议投资者違回调布局多单为主，伦敦金关注3000~3200附近支撑位及3500~3700附近压力位，沪金730~750附近支撑位及840~900 | | --- | | 附近压力位，伦敦银31~34附近支撑位及38~40附近压力位，沪银8300~8500附近支撑位及9500~10000附近压力位。《观点评分：1 2 | | 使责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料、本公司对这些信息的推 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证、也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已为求报告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、统论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。我 | | 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资新造成的一切后果、本公司哪不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可、任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 | | 引用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和WIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 17 日 黄金：地缘冲突缓和 白银：高位回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2508 | 792.30 | -0.26% | 785.78 | -1.37% | | | 黄金T+D | 787.93 | -0.37% | 783.63 | -1.16% | | | Comex黄金2508 | 3404.30 | -1.40% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2508 | 8858 | 0.76% | 8817.00 | -0.08% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 8835 | 0. ...

Group 1 - The revised economic plan proposed by Senate Republicans aims to cut taxes for families and businesses by trillions of dollars, at the cost of reducing healthcare coverage for low-income Americans and increasing the national deficit [1] - The new version of the bill expands certain tax cuts and raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, compared to the House version which proposed a $4 trillion increase [1] - The Senate plans to vote on the bill next week to ensure it is sent to President Trump before July 4 [1] Group 2 - The committee draft makes significant changes by making three corporate tax cuts permanent, including R&D expense deductions, expanded interest expense deductions, and immediate expensing for new equipment [2] - The plan is more aggressive in cutting Medicaid for low-income and disabled individuals compared to the House version, limiting states' options for self-funding Medicaid [2] - The bill expands the child tax credit to $2,200 per child permanently and introduces a new deduction for charitable donations for non-itemizers [2] Group 3 - The bill will terminate the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit and eliminate subsidies for wind and solar energy within 180 days of enactment, which could severely impact the struggling solar industry [3] - Despite ongoing negotiations on key policy issues, Senate Republicans are pushing for the legislation to be passed by July 4, with Trump pressuring lawmakers to reach an agreement [3] - Research from the White House's National Economic Council indicates that the corporate tax reform from 2017 has stimulated business investment, although some economists warn that the tax cuts will exacerbate the already rising national deficit [3]