推 撰 文 / 钱亚光 设 计 / 赵昊然 来 源 / rhomotion.com, www.carscoops.com, electriccarsreport.com 尽管电动汽车在2024年没有像一些人所期望的那样迅猛增长，但2025年开局全球销量势头要强劲得 多。 新数据显示，在全球所有主要市场，电动汽车的销量都在创纪录增长。这种势头很明显，不过随着 时间的推进，特朗普政府出台的政策变动，尤其是削减补贴和新的关税政策，可能会开始抑制这种 增长势头。 近日，电动汽车情报研究机构Rho Motion公布，2025年3月全球电动汽车（纯电动汽车+插混汽车） 销量为170万辆，2025年第一季度销量为410万辆。与2024年3月相比，2025年3月电动汽车市场增长 了29%，与2025年2月相比增长了40%。 这一增长主要得益于中国和欧洲市场的持续强劲势头。尽管增长率与前几个月持平，但地缘政治因 素已开始影响各地区的表现——尤其是在北美地区。世界其他地区的一季度销量增长了27%，达到 约30万辆。 Rho Motion数据经理查尔斯·莱斯特（Charles Lester）评论道："一季度，尽管形势动荡不安，但全 ...

推 撰 文 / 钱亚光 设 计 / 赵昊然 来 源 / rhomotion.com, www.carscoops.com, electriccarsreport.com 尽管电动汽车在2024年没有像一些人所期望的那样迅猛增长，但2025年开局全球销量势头要强劲得 多。 新数据显示，在全球所有主要市场，电动汽车的销量都在创纪录增长。这种势头很明显，不过随着 时间的推进，特朗普政府出台的政策变动，尤其是削减补贴和新的关税政策，可能会开始抑制这种 增长势头。 近日，电动汽车情报研究机构Rho Motion公布，2025年3月全球电动汽车（纯电动汽车+插混汽车） 销量为170万辆，2025年第一季度销量为410万辆。与2024年3月相比，2025年3月电动汽车市场增长 了29%，与2025年2月相比增长了40%。 这一增长主要得益于中国和欧洲市场的持续强劲势头。尽管增长率与前几个月持平，但地缘政治因 素已开始影响各地区的表现——尤其是在北美地区。世界其他地区的一季度销量增长了27%，达到 约30万辆。 Rho Motion数据经理查尔斯·莱斯特（Charles Lester）评论道："一季度，尽管形势动荡不安，但全 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Prologis reported a core FFO of $1.42 per share, including net promotes, and $1.43 per share excluding net promotes, both exceeding forecasts [15] - Occupancy at the end of the quarter was 95.2%, a decrease of 70 basis points from year-end, attributed to strong retention [15] - Net effective rent change during the quarter was 54%, with cash basis at 32%, leading to same-store growth of 5.9% and 6.2% respectively [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company leased 58 million square feet, nearing record levels, and initiated approximately $650 million in new developments, with 80% in built-to-suit projects [10][17] - In the data center business, 400 megawatts of power moved to advanced stages, totaling 2 gigawatts in this category [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global rents declined by 1.5%, primarily driven by Southern California, while other markets remained flat or increased [88] - Net absorption for the quarter was 21 million square feet, down from 27 million a year ago, indicating a seasonal decline [144] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its global footprint and diversified rent roll to navigate market disruptions and capitalize on emerging opportunities [12][14] - Prologis is focusing on markets where goods are consumed rather than produced, reinforcing its long-term strategy [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about potential recession and inflation, emphasizing the need for flexible inventory positioning among customers [12][30] - The company anticipates increased inventory levels as businesses stockpile, with e-commerce expected to gain more market share [30] Other Important Information - The company raised approximately $400 million in new capital for its flagship open-ended funds, with a similar amount in redemptions, resulting in a neutral capital raise [20] - Prologis received a credit rating upgrade to A2 from Moody's, making it one of only two public REITs with an A-flat rating from both agencies [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on customer interactions and demand - Management noted that consumption is closely tied to GDP growth, with a historical relationship of about 70% in the U.S. [44] Question: Clarification on leasing and occupancy - The occupancy drop was attributed to a high volume of leases rolling in the first quarter, with retention at 73% [51] Question: Impact of 3PLs on the Inland Empire West - The U.S. businesses of Asian 3PLs represent just over 1.5% of the rent roll, and these companies are adapting by diversifying their sources and growing domestic footprints [57] Question: Amazon's market presence - Prologis has signed significant deals with Amazon, with the e-commerce segment showing strong leasing activity [65] Question: Opportunities in the current environment - Management indicated that it is too early to identify specific opportunities, as the market is currently in a wait-and-see mode [69] Question: Demand for smaller spaces - Smaller spaces typically have lower occupancy due to shorter lease terms and are more affected by economic downturns [120][124] Question: Expectations for cash same-store NOI - The strong 6.2% cash same-store NOI in Q1 was influenced by occupancy changes and is expected to be volatile throughout the year [129] Question: Timing of lease commitments - New lease commencements can occur rapidly, while renewals may take longer, depending on the lease size [136]

宁德时代在业绩说明会上表示，美国业务占公司出货比重较小，且去年以来公司已经根据环境变化提 前做了预案，所以有关关税政策对公司业绩影响较小，公司正在与客户积极协商解决方案。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned about the economic risks posed by global trade tensions, particularly due to increased market uncertainty from U.S. trade policies [1][3] Economic Performance - The U.S. economy is currently growing at around 3%, with low unemployment rates, indicating a relatively healthy economic state [3] - However, recent tariff policies have increased market volatility and uncertainty, leading to a decline in consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations [3] Federal Reserve Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces significant challenges in balancing inflation control with economic growth and employment support [3][4] - Schmid emphasized the need for the Fed to maintain its credibility in inflation control, warning that unchecked price increases could lead to a vicious cycle of inflation expectations, reminiscent of the "inflation spiral" of the 1970s [3] Tariff Impact - Despite the U.S. delaying additional tariffs on most trading partners, high tariff rates continue to create uncertainty for the U.S. economy [3] - Morgan Stanley analysts predict that ongoing tariff policies may push the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate up to 4%, exacerbating economic instability [3] Policy Decision Complexity - Schmid noted that while the theoretical impact of tariffs may be temporary, the Fed cannot rely solely on theoretical assumptions in the current economic environment [4] - The supply shocks caused by tariffs could have profound effects on inflation and economic growth, making future policy decisions by the Fed crucial [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the non-ferrous metals and energy chemical sectors, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics affecting copper, aluminum, nickel, and other related materials [2][3][6]. Key Insights and Arguments Non-Ferrous Metals Market 1. **Supply Constraints**: The non-ferrous metals market in Q2 2025 is heavily influenced by supply-side issues, with copper, aluminum, and nickel facing significant supply constraints due to mining restrictions and policy changes [2][3]. 2. **Copper Price Trends**: Copper prices are expected to trend upwards in 2025 due to tight mining resources, a weakening US dollar, and inflationary pressures. The dollar index has dropped from 110 to around 104, with expectations of further declines [3][4]. 3. **Aluminum and Nickel Prices**: Both aluminum and nickel markets are experiencing high prices due to supply limitations, including domestic aluminum smelting capacity constraints and adjustments in Indonesian nickel mining policies [3][5]. 4. **Copper Supply and Smelting**: The tight copper supply is affecting smelting operations, with global metal smelting capacity utilization rates declining. Domestic reliance on imported copper ore is high, with port inventories at historical lows [3][11]. 5. **Processing Fees**: Current smelting processing fees are below breakeven levels, leading to increased concerns about production cuts. The long-term processing fee for copper is significantly lower than the previous year [12][11]. 6. **US Tariffs on Copper**: The US plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported copper, raising market premium expectations and affecting global inventory dynamics [13][14]. Energy Chemical Sector 1. **Oil and Coal Chemical Markets**: The oil chemical sector is influenced by global oil supply and geopolitical risks, while the coal chemical sector is affected by domestic coal production policies and environmental regulations [6]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The energy chemical products' prices are expected to be significantly impacted by downstream demand changes, particularly in industrial production activities [6]. Future Outlook 1. **Copper Market**: The copper market is expected to remain tight due to limited new mining capacity and declining ore grades. The overall industry supply situation is likely to remain constrained [9][10]. 2. **Aluminum and Nickel**: The aluminum market is facing limited growth potential, while the nickel market is experiencing a more relaxed supply situation, although policy changes in Indonesia could impact future supply [5][25]. 3. **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon market is oversupplied, while polysilicon production is expected to stabilize due to self-discipline production agreements among manufacturers [27][28]. Additional Considerations 1. **Domestic Market Conditions**: The domestic market is heavily reliant on imported copper ore, with significant concerns about the impact of US tariffs on waste copper supply and basic metal consumption [11][15]. 2. **Automotive Sector Impact**: The domestic automotive export situation is expected to influence global demand, with a focus on the recovery of domestic consumption in the context of new energy vehicles [17][39]. 3. **Regulatory Environment**: The evolving regulatory landscape, particularly regarding tariffs and environmental policies, will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics across the non-ferrous metals and energy chemical sectors [16][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the ongoing challenges and opportunities within the non-ferrous metals and energy chemical industries.