[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 3 Mar 2026 香港汽车 Hong Kong Autos 2 月新能源车销量跟踪：淡季回落，出海与技术主线凸显 February NEV Sales Tracker: Seasonal Slowdown, Overseas Expansion and Technology Take Center Stage 王沈昱 Oscar Wang, CFA 王凯 Kai Wang, CFA sy.wang@htisec.com k.wang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 各大车企已披露 2 月销量数据，受春节假期与消费节奏调整影响，车市阶段性"降温"特征明显，多数车企环比出现 双位数下滑。价格竞争热度边际回落，市场重心逐步转向技术与产品周期博弈，我们预计 2026 年汽车市场将在短期 波动与中期格局重塑中承压前行，等待 3–4 月需求修复与新品催化带来的结构性 ...

Group 1 - The film "Fast and Furious 3" has become a phenomenon during the 2026 Spring Festival, achieving a box office of over 2 billion yuan, marking it as the first film of the season to reach this milestone [1] - The film features nearly 10 automotive brands, including Audi, Volkswagen, Li Auto, Lynk & Co, Avita, and BYD, showcasing a diverse lineup of traditional fuel, luxury performance, new energy, and smart vehicles [1] - The core vehicle in the film is the Audi A3 rally car, which is a modified version of the Audi A3 Sportback, highlighting the film's focus on performance cars [1] Group 2 - Lynk & Co's Z20 serves as the central new energy racing vehicle, representing the brand's upcoming electric compact SUV set to launch by the end of 2024 [2] - The film illustrates a shift in automotive marketing from mere product placement to a deeper integration of vehicles as key narrative elements, moving from "props" to "protagonists" [2] - Brands are now participating as co-creators in films, integrating their product features into the storyline from the script stage, rather than as post-production advertisements [3] Group 3 - The initial market response to the film's automotive integration has been positive, with over 3,000 units of the Audi A3 rally car model sold on e-commerce platforms within 24 hours [3] - The release of "Fast and Furious 3" has led to a noticeable increase in online interest for models such as the Audi E5 Sportback, Audi RS5, Audi RS6, and Li Auto MEGA [3]

Core Viewpoint - The small car market is set to experience significant changes and growth, highlighted by the successful launch of new models like the Honda Fit and Chery QQ3, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and market dynamics [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The new Honda Fit sold out its limited 3,000 units within a short period, showcasing a successful marketing and sales strategy [2][4]. - In contrast, the Chery QQ3 received 27,319 blind orders within just 3 hours of its launch, indicating a strong demand for electric small cars [5][7]. Group 2: Historical Context of Small Cars - Small cars have historically been defined by their size and affordability, catering to essential transportation needs while gaining popularity for their practicality [8][11]. - The evolution of small cars has been influenced by their low entry barriers and ease of imitation, allowing emerging automotive markets to adopt and adapt successful designs [15][16][20]. Group 3: Changes in Chinese Small Car Market - The Chery QQ, launched in 2003, became a market sensation with a starting price below 40,000 yuan, offering features that were competitive for its time [27][30]. - The market for small cars in China has shifted as consumer preferences evolved, with a growing demand for larger, more comfortable vehicles and the rise of compact cars and SUVs [35][37]. Group 4: The New Era of Electric Small Cars - The introduction of the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV in 2020 marked a turning point for electric small cars in China, offering an affordable and practical solution for urban transportation [43][44]. - The competitive landscape for electric small cars is rapidly evolving, with numerous models emerging that emphasize original design and local supply chain capabilities [52][54]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Chery QQ3 represents a new chapter for the brand, combining modern technology and design to meet the demands of today's consumers [62][65]. - The strong initial demand for the QQ3, evidenced by its blind orders, suggests a promising future for small electric cars in the Chinese market [73].

Core Viewpoint - Honda Fit is attempting to regain market attention through price reductions and limited marketing strategies, launching a new model priced at 66,800 yuan with a limited release of 3,000 units, despite only selling 2,695 units in 2025, which is less than the new model's release quantity [1][2] Group 1: Honda Fit's Market Position - The new Honda Fit has not changed in body size or power parameters compared to the 2024 model, with updates primarily in interior features, including a new 10.1-inch central control screen and standard Bluetooth and CarPlay functions [1] - The previous market dominance of the Fit was due to its competitive advantages in the fuel vehicle era, offering better interior space and fuel economy in the 100,000 yuan price range, making it a preferred choice for young consumers [1] - In 2018, the Fit achieved peak annual sales of 129,200 units in China, but by 2024, its sales plummeted over 70% to 14,700 units, dropping to eighth place in its segment [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - BYD has quickly filled the market gap left by the declining Fit, with its Dolphin and Seagull models dominating the small car market, achieving sales of 453,600 units for the Seagull in 2024, nearly double that of the second-place Wuling Bingo [4] - In 2025, Geely's Star Wish surpassed BYD's Seagull with sales of 465,800 units, becoming the new leader in the small car market and the overall sales champion in the Chinese passenger car market [4][5] - The small car market is highly concentrated, with only two to three models actively competing, making it crucial for brands to maintain a presence in consumer purchase intentions [5] Group 3: Challenges for Other Brands - Great Wall's Ora brand has seen a decline in market share, with sales dropping from 73,600 units in 2023 to 29,300 units in 2025, due to a strategic focus on profitability and reduced investment in the Ora brand [6] - The new Ora 5 model, launched after a three-year hiatus, is positioned as a compact SUV with a higher price range of 99,800 to 133,800 yuan, moving away from the small car segment [7] - The shift in branding strategy for Ora, moving from a female-focused identity to a broader market appeal, raises questions about the effectiveness of this change in a competitive environment [7] Group 4: Emerging Trends in the Small Car Market - The market for premium small cars, represented by brands like BMW MINI and NIO's Firefly, focuses on design and brand positioning rather than scale, achieving higher price points and brand premiums [10] - NIO's Firefly has captured 61% of the high-end small car market share, with plans for international expansion, including a launch in Singapore [11] - In contrast, Smart's sales have declined from 42,300 units in 2023 to 30,800 units in 2025, as its product strategy lacks focus, failing to maintain its classic small car appeal in the electric era [12] Group 5: Policy and Market Dynamics - The new subsidy policies for electric vehicles will limit the financial incentives for low-priced models, making it essential for companies to compete based on real value and product strength [13] - The small car market is expected to face overall declines in 2026 due to the dual pressures of subsidy reductions and tax changes, necessitating a balance between sales volume and profitability for all participants [13]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "New National Subsidy" policy for 2026 has led to a surge in consumer interest and promotional activities among various automotive brands, aiming to stimulate sales in the electric vehicle market. Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Market Response - Many consumers are waiting for the "New National Subsidy" to finalize their vehicle purchases, as evidenced by increased foot traffic in showrooms during the New Year holiday [1] - Sales personnel report a significant rise in daily customer visits, with some stores exceeding a thousand visitors [1] - Automotive brands are launching various promotional strategies, including tax subsidies and cash discounts, to attract buyers [1] Group 2: Promotional Strategies by Automotive Brands - Several brands, including Zhiji and Extreme Kr, are offering vehicle purchase tax subsidies, with amounts reaching up to 12,000 yuan [2] - Zhiji's promotional campaign requires customers to place orders by January 3 to benefit from tax subsidies, highlighting the urgency of the offer [2] - Extreme Kr is also providing tax subsidies ranging from 7,000 to 12,000 yuan for its vehicles [2] Group 3: Price Adjustments and Market Strategy - BMW has announced price reductions for several models, with the i7M70L seeing a decrease of 301,000 yuan, while the iX1eDrive25L's price dropped by 71,900 yuan, reflecting a strategic response to market demand [4][5] - BMW emphasizes that these price adjustments are not a price war but a strategic move to align with customer needs and market dynamics [5] - The adjustments in pricing are expected to enhance the competitiveness of BMW's offerings in the market [5] Group 4: Policy Changes and Implications - The 2026 policy changes include a reduction in the vehicle purchase tax from full exemption to a 5% rate, which is expected to impact consumer purchasing behavior [6][7] - The new subsidy structure shifts from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, maintaining the upper limits for subsidies [7] - The maximum subsidy for scrapping old vehicles is set at 20,000 yuan, while the maximum for replacing vehicles is 13,000 yuan [7] Group 5: Regional Implementation of Subsidy Policies - Various regions, including Jiangxi and Hebei, have begun implementing the new subsidy policies, allowing consumers to apply for up to 20,000 yuan in subsidies [9][10] - The central government has allocated 62.5 billion yuan for the first batch of subsidies, aimed at supporting the "old for new" vehicle replacement program [10] - The "old for new" policy has significantly contributed to the growth of the domestic automotive market, with over 1.15 million vehicles replaced in 2025 alone [10] Group 6: Future Market Outlook - The automotive industry is expected to experience positive growth in the first quarter of 2026, driven by the new policies and consumer incentives [11] - The government aims to promote green consumption and support the development of the automotive industry chain, including second-hand vehicles and new consumption models [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the new electric vehicle (EV) purchase tax policy and subsidy changes in 2026, highlighting how these changes are prompting car manufacturers to increase promotions to attract buyers during the New Year period [3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting in 2026, the EV purchase tax incentive has been reduced from full exemption to a 50% reduction (5% tax rate) [3][5]. - The "Two New" policy has shifted from fixed subsidies to a percentage-based subsidy based on vehicle price, although the maximum subsidy remains unchanged [3][5]. - The new purchase tax policy is expected to increase the cost of purchasing EVs, with the tax for a vehicle priced at 31.98 million yuan being approximately 14,200 yuan [11]. Group 2: Market Response - Car manufacturers are ramping up promotions to attract hesitant buyers, with many offering cash discounts and trade-in subsidies [5][6]. - For example, Xiaopeng Motors is offering a cash discount of 3,000 yuan and a trade-in subsidy of 3,000 yuan, totaling around 6,000 yuan in discounts [5]. - Li Auto has different discount policies for various models, with the L6 model seeing a price drop of 38,000 yuan [6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There has been an increase in consumer inquiries and test drives during the New Year period, indicating heightened interest due to the policy changes [4][5]. - Many consumers are still in a wait-and-see mode, comparing different brands' promotions before making a purchase decision [6][8]. - Despite the increased costs from the new tax, many consumers are still purchasing vehicles, as seen in the sales performance of brands like NIO and Hongmeng Zhixing [8][11]. Group 4: Sales Performance - NIO's sales during the New Year period were robust, with reports of high foot traffic and test drive requests [7][8]. - In Guangzhou, a store sold over 10 units of the new Aion model in a single day, demonstrating strong demand despite the new tax [11]. - Overall, the article indicates that while the new tax has raised costs, many brands are successfully maintaining sales momentum through strategic promotions and consumer engagement [9][11].

Core Insights - The new policy for electric vehicle (EV) purchase tax has been implemented in 2026, reducing the previous full exemption to a 50% reduction, resulting in a 5% tax rate for consumers [2][4] - The subsidy policy has shifted from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, although the maximum subsidy remains unchanged, leading to a decrease in support for lower-priced models [2][4] Group 1: Market Reactions - Car manufacturers and dealerships are increasing promotional efforts to attract hesitant buyers, aiming for a strong start to the 2026 market [2][3] - During the New Year holiday, there was a notable increase in customer inquiries and test drives, with sales staff working in larger numbers to accommodate demand [3][5] - Many dealerships are advertising their sales achievements to draw in more customers, with some offering cash discounts and trade-in subsidies [3][4] Group 2: Specific Company Strategies - Li Auto is offering varying discounts based on model, with significant reductions for popular models like the L6 and L7 [4] - NIO and other new energy brands are implementing "bottom line" measures to offset the increased purchase tax, such as cash subsidies and price reductions [6][7] - Tesla has not introduced any compensatory measures for the new tax policy but continues to see strong customer interest and sales [7] Group 3: Sales Performance - Some dealerships reported high sales volumes during the holiday, with one store selling over 10 new energy vehicles in a single day [8][9] - Despite the increased costs from the new tax, many brands are still experiencing robust sales, indicating strong market demand [8][9] - The introduction of new models and promotional strategies is expected to maintain consumer interest and sales momentum in the coming months [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The sales performance of new energy vehicle (NEV) brands, including NIO, Tesla, and Zeekr, remains strong despite upcoming policy changes regarding purchase tax and subsidies in 2026 [3][4][5] Group 1: Sales Performance - NIO's store in Shanghai experienced high customer traffic and demand for test drives during the New Year holiday, indicating robust consumer interest [1] - Other new energy vehicle brands, such as Tesla and Zeekr, also reported increased customer flow during the same period, suggesting a general trend across the industry [3] Group 2: Policy Changes - In 2026, two significant policy changes will affect the NEV market: the reduction of the vehicle purchase tax from full exemption to a 5% rate, and a shift in subsidy structure from fixed amounts to percentage-based subsidies [3] - Despite these changes, sales data from the New Year period indicate that the impact on market sales has been limited, as many new energy vehicles fall within the price range that still qualifies for full subsidies [3] Group 3: Manufacturer Responses - NIO has introduced a subsidy of 2,000 yuan to offset the increased purchase tax for its models, such as the Firefly priced at 119,800 yuan [4] - Zeekr has implemented a direct price reduction strategy to counteract the tax increase, offering significant discounts on tax payments [4] - Xiaomi Auto is focusing on attractive financing options, particularly for SUV models, to mitigate the impact of the new tax policy [4] Group 4: Market Coverage - Over 20 car manufacturers, including major players like Li Auto, NIO, and Zeekr, have adopted purchase tax "safety net" policies to support consumers [5] - Tesla, while a leading player in the NEV market, has not introduced any such measures, yet its sales performance remains unaffected during the holiday period [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of various electric vehicle manufacturers in November, showcasing significant sales growth and market competition as the year comes to a close [1][7][8]. Group 2 - BYD sold 474,921 passenger vehicles in November, with a total of over 4.18 million units sold in the first 11 months of the year, maintaining a leading position in the new energy sector [2][7]. - Geely's November sales reached 310,428 units, with 187,798 units being new energy vehicles, marking a continuous growth trend for nine months [8][13]. - SAIC-GM-Wuling achieved 161,726 total sales in November, with 118,726 units being new energy vehicles, driven by the popularity of the Hongguang MINI EV family [14][16]. - Chery sold 255,809 vehicles in November, with 110,017 being new energy vehicles, indicating a strong commitment to the new energy market [18][20]. - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 81,864 units in November, benefiting from strong demand for its models and technological advancements [21][23]. - Leap Motor delivered 70,327 units in November, with a focus on self-research and a diverse product line [25]. - Great Wall Motors sold 133,216 vehicles in November, with 40,113 being new energy vehicles, showing significant growth in the new energy segment [26][29]. - Xiaomi's sales exceeded 40,000 units in November, with expectations for further growth as production capacity improves [30][32]. - XPeng Motors delivered 36,728 units in November, with a year-to-date growth of 156% [34]. - NIO delivered 36,275 units in November, with notable performance from its various brands [38]. - Li Auto delivered 33,181 units in November, facing competitive pressures but maintaining a positive outlook [40]. - Deep Blue Automotive achieved 33,060 global deliveries in November, with strong performance from its S05 model [42]. - BAIC New Energy sold 32,328 units in November, with a focus on increasing its annual sales [43][46]. - Lantu Automotive delivered 20,005 units in November, marking a significant milestone for the brand [47][48]. - Bestune sold 19,520 vehicles in November, with a strong focus on appealing to younger consumers [49][51]. - Avita achieved a record high of 14,057 units in November, reflecting significant progress and future market potential [52]. - Zhiji Automotive delivered 13,577 units in November, expanding its product offerings while maintaining a focus on electric vehicles [55]. - Jishi Automotive saw a steady increase in sales, particularly in international markets, indicating a successful product strategy [57].

Core Viewpoint - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing varied delivery performances among different manufacturers in November, with some companies showing growth while others face declines in delivery numbers [1][2]. Group 1: Delivery Performance - Leap Motor achieved a record delivery of 70,327 units in November, marking a 75.08% year-on-year increase and a slight 0.05% month-on-month growth, continuing its growth trend for nine consecutive months [2][3]. - Xpeng Motors delivered 36,728 units, reflecting an 18.88% year-on-year increase but a 12.58% month-on-month decline, marking its first monthly drop in six months [3][4]. - NIO delivered 36,275 units, a 76.31% year-on-year increase, but a 10.20% month-on-month decrease, with a strong performance from its new ES8 model expected to boost December deliveries [3][4]. - Li Auto's deliveries were 33,181 units, showing a 31.92% year-on-year decline, continuing a trend of six months of year-on-year decreases [4][5]. Group 2: Future Projections and Strategies - Leap Motor aims to achieve a sales target of 1 million units by 2026, having already completed its annual target of 500,000 units 45 days ahead of schedule [2][3]. - Xpeng Motors is expanding its overseas market presence, with a 95% year-on-year increase in overseas deliveries, totaling 39,773 units from January to November [3][4]. - NIO has set a quarterly delivery guidance of 120,000 to 125,000 units, indicating a need for over 43,000 units in December to meet its targets [4]. - Li Auto is focusing on enhancing its long-term competitiveness through organizational, product, and technological improvements, with a strategic goal to regain its leading position in range-extended products by 2026 [5].