Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada anticipates that the boost in export growth will soon fade due to ongoing tariffs and uncertainty [1] Group 1 - The meeting minutes indicate that the current economic environment is heavily influenced by trade tariffs [1] - There is a recognition that uncertainty in the market is impacting export performance [1] - The expectation is that the positive effects of export growth will not be sustained in the near future [1]

Economic Performance Overview - In May, the national economy showed resilience and stability, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual economic goals due to more proactive macro policies [1] - Key indicators in May demonstrated month-on-month increases, with industrial added value growing by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month [1] - The service sector also accelerated, with the service production index increasing by 6.2% year-on-year and the business activity index at 50.2, indicating expansion [1] Consumer Spending Insights - Retail sales in May reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, marking a new high for 2024 [1] - The growth in consumption was driven by favorable policies and promotional activities, including the "6.18" online shopping festival and holiday effects from the "May Day" and "Duanwu" festivals [1] - Domestic tourism during the "May Day" holiday saw a 6.4% increase in visitor numbers, while restaurant revenue grew by 5.9% year-on-year [1] Export and Trade Performance - In May, China's total goods import and export amounted to 38,098 billion yuan, with exports at 22,767 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [2] - Despite the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., overall export growth remained positive, with a 7.2% increase from January to May [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to May grew by 3.7%, lower than the 4.0% growth observed in the first four months [2] - Investment in the primary industry rose by 8.4%, while the secondary industry saw an increase of 11.4%, and the tertiary industry experienced a decline of 0.4% [2] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market showed signs of weakness, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining by 0.7% month-on-month and new housing prices also decreasing [3] - Real estate investment, sales, and construction area further declined year-on-year in May, indicating a need for policy intervention to stabilize the market [3] Policy Recommendations - There is a necessity for targeted macro policies to enhance investment momentum and stimulate private investment, particularly in the real estate sector [3] - The government is encouraged to innovate service offerings to boost consumption, especially in tourism, dining, retail, and transportation as summer approaches [3]

Core Insights - Israel's exports increased by 1.5% in the first quarter [1] - Private consumption decreased by 4.7% in the first quarter [1] - Investment grew by 6.1% in the first quarter [1] - Government spending saw a slight decline of 0.1% [1] - Per capita GDP experienced an annualized growth of 2.4% in the first quarter [1] - Annualized GDP growth (excluding net taxes on imports) was reported at 5.7% in the first quarter [1]

越南估计5月份出口同比增长14%，贸易顺差46.7亿美元。 ...

Group 1 - Indonesia's exports in April increased by 5.76% year-on-year [1] - From January to April, the total export value reached $87.36 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.65% [1]

马来西亚4月份出口同比增长16.4%，预估中值为增长7.5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The weak GDP data for Japan in the first quarter suggests that the Bank of Japan may delay interest rate hikes longer than previously anticipated [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's first quarter GDP data was below expectations, particularly disappointing in personal consumption, which remained flat compared to the previous quarter [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to hinder Japan's export growth, leading to a more pessimistic economic outlook from the Bank of Japan [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates as early as July appears to be decreasing based on the current economic indicators [1]

印度4月出口384.9亿美元，同比增长9%。 ...

亚太经济合作组织预计2025年出口增长为0.4%，而2024年为5.7%；预估2025年亚太地区GDP成长率为 2.6%，低于先前的3.3%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) organization forecasts a significant decline in export growth, projecting an increase of only 0.4% in 2025 compared to a higher growth rate of 5.7% in 2024 [1]