上海天然橡胶期货合约在大阪上市（5月26日，大阪市） 这一新机制可满足橡胶需求企业对在中国持有的天然橡胶库存价格波动的对冲需求。另一个值得 关注的是，是此次上市的上海天然橡胶期货指数产品与现有天然橡胶期货之间的套利交易成为可 能…… 另一个值得关注的是，是此次上市的上海天然橡胶期货指数产品与现有天然橡胶期货之间的套利 交易（Arbitrage）成为可能。若市场参与者积极利用两者之间的价格差进行套利操作，不仅有望 获取价差利润，也有望带动大阪现有天然橡胶期货的交易量增长。新加坡知名橡胶贸易公司R1 International的Ho Wai Leong表示欢迎："全球性的贸易公司将因此获得更多套利交易的机会"。 日本早在1952年就成为全球最早推出天然橡胶期货的国家。然而，市场普遍认为，大阪交易所的 天然橡胶期货交易量近年来呈缩减趋势，其作为国际主要价格指标的地位正在逐步下降。天然橡 胶的主要产地集中在亚洲，相关交易活动也以亚洲为中心。目前，除大阪交易所和上海期货交易 所外，新加坡交易所（SGX）等地也推出了天然橡胶期货产品。由于这些交易所与东南亚产地更 为接近，近年来在全球橡胶市场上的存在感日益增强，交易环境也 ...

一般情况下，日本银行会对债市进行干预，不过主要聚焦在十年期国债。日本银行对超长期债市的干预 仅仅是象征性的。从去年开始，日本央行便致力于货币环境正常化，但是庞大的套利交易盘成为政策执 行的巨大掣肘。如今市场主动调整，正中央行下怀，所以日本银行乐得作壁上观，让市场通过收益率的 变化自己去解决供需错配问题。 日本超长债市上，借贷杠杆不是特别高，衍生产品也不多。所以价格动荡会导致投资的账面亏损，但未 必触发系统性风险。尤其日本央行在十年期国债市场还有相当的影响力，笔者认为这次市场突变不会对 日本金融体系构成很大的系统性风险，但可能对全球资金结构和流向带来重大变数。 日本是世界上最大的储蓄国，但由于长期的超低利率环境，日资多投向海外资产，对日本经济和日元资 产帮助有限。从政策制定者的角度，当然希望引导日资回流，改善本国的资金流动性。现在日本本币的 长期收益率明显上涨，而美债收益率扣除汇率对冲成本后已经不再有吸引力。日本在海外拥有超过1000 万亿日元的净资产，这笔资金部分回流对全球金融市场都可能是一个冲击。 这次市场突变不会对日本金融体系构成很大的系统性风险，但可能对全球资金结构和流向带来重大变 数。 资金将焦点从货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar is approaching the weak end of its trading range, prompting traders to increase borrowing for arbitrage as local interest rates decline [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Hong Kong dollar fell to a low of 7.8294 against the US dollar, nearing the weak end of the convertibility range of 7.85 [1] - Since May, the Hong Kong dollar has depreciated nearly 1%, heading towards its largest monthly decline since the implementation of the linked exchange rate system in 1983 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Recent weeks have seen pressure on the Hong Kong dollar as the interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the US has widened to record levels [1] - Following a significant drop in the US dollar that pushed the Hong Kong dollar towards the strong end of the convertibility range, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority injected liquidity into the financial system earlier this month [1]

Group 1 - Barclays Bank's latest report indicates a reduction in interest rate pressure on major global central banks due to signs of easing in the US-China tariff dispute, which may lead to a resurgence in arbitrage trading in the short term [1] - The report highlights a favorable market environment for foreign exchange arbitrage strategies, with a preference for currencies such as the US dollar, Brazilian real, Colombian peso, Indian rupee, and Mexican peso [1] - The analysis is based on two core judgments: the diminishing drag effect of the tariff dispute on the global economy and the expectation that major central banks will not rush to cut rates due to the absence of hard landing risks [1] Group 2 - Barclays predicts that market volatility will decrease to levels seen after the US elections and before the tariff announcements in early April 2025, creating favorable conditions for arbitrage strategies [2] - The bank warns that as global interest rates approach neutral levels, the "golden window" for arbitrage trading may not last long [2] - Overall, the report conveys a clear signal that with the dual support of reduced tariff risks and stable central bank policies, there is short-term operational space for arbitrage trading, particularly for emerging market investors [2]

Group 1 - The Russian ruble has reached its highest exchange rate against the US dollar in two years, trading at 80.2237 rubles per dollar, driven by expectations of direct negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv and a decrease in domestic demand for foreign currency [1][3] - The ruble has appreciated over 40% this year in the global over-the-counter market, outperforming gold and becoming the best-performing asset [1] - The Central Bank of Russia reported a gradual decline in demand for foreign currency, reaching its lowest level since sanctions were imposed on Moscow's trading platforms, despite a 2% drop in foreign currency sales related to exports [3] Group 2 - A delegation of experienced technical experts from the Kremlin is set to participate in negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul, although key leaders like Presidents Trump and Putin will not attend [3] - The Central Bank of Russia maintains a record high benchmark interest rate to curb inflation, creating a favorable environment for arbitrage trading and the appreciation of the ruble [3] - The expectation of improved geopolitical conditions, stable currency supply from exporters, and high interest rates have supported the ruble's rise [3]

巴克莱：对冲基金约10%的美元/港元多头头寸被平仓 智通财经5月14日电，巴克莱称，对冲基金在过去两年积累了420亿美元的美元/港元多头仓位，其中约 8%至10%在过去一周因市场波动和香港金管局干预而被平仓。策略师Lemon Zhang及其同事在给客户的 报告中写道，做多美元/港元是近年来最受欢迎的套利交易之一。IPO、股息支付引发港元需求；4-6月 股息支付预计将达到361亿美元，几乎是往年平均水平的两倍，但未来几周这些驱动因素可能会再次减 弱，香港料维持联系汇率制。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent appreciation of Asian currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, and New Taiwan dollar, amid a currency war initiated by the U.S. [1][5] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, who has a history of currency speculation, is seen as a key player in this currency conflict, having previously targeted the British pound and Japanese yen [5][9] - The offshore yuan appreciated significantly, rising over 900 points in two days, while the New Taiwan dollar saw an unprecedented increase of over 9% [5][15] Group 2 - The article contrasts the strategies of hedge funds, which aim to devalue currencies for profit, with national strategies that typically seek to maintain or devalue their own currencies to support export-driven economies [6][7] - For export-oriented economies like Taiwan, a weaker currency is beneficial as it increases the profitability of exports, while a strong currency can harm competitiveness [8][14] - The article highlights the risks faced by Taiwanese financial institutions due to their heavy reliance on U.S. dollar assets and the lack of hedging against currency fluctuations, leading to significant losses amid the recent appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar [17][19] Group 3 - The Hong Kong dollar's situation is unique, as it is pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the recent appreciation has led to concerns about maintaining this peg [20][21] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened by selling over 100 billion Hong Kong dollars to stabilize the currency, resulting in increased U.S. dollar reserves [21][22] - The article warns of potential asset bubbles in Hong Kong due to the influx of capital, which could pose risks if the market experiences a sudden withdrawal of funds [23] Group 4 - The Chinese yuan's stability is emphasized, with the article noting that it has only appreciated by less than 2% despite a 9% depreciation of the U.S. dollar since January [23][24] - Regulatory interventions are expected if the yuan's exchange rate fluctuates significantly, with historical patterns indicating intervention at certain thresholds [25][26] - The article concludes that while a stronger yuan could attract capital inflows, it is also a bargaining chip for the U.S. in trade negotiations, suggesting that the yuan's appreciation is not straightforward [27][28]

香港金管局总裁余伟文：港元需求持续上升。 香港金管局预计，未来几个月港元/美元将出现套利交易。 未来几个月将对不确定性保持警惕。 港元走强主要受股票相关的需求推动。 ...

智通财经5月6日电，香港金管局总裁余伟文表示，预计未来几个月港元/美元将出现套利交易，将对不 确定性保持警惕。 ...

以下文章来源于财联社 ，作者牛占林 财联社 . 财联社是上海报业集团主管主办，定位资本市场报道财经通讯社，以"准确、快速、权威、专业"为准则，提供7x24小时金融信息服务。 来源|财联社 4月15日在美国政府发动全面贸易战之后，全球金融市场风雨飘摇，但未曾想到的是，俄罗斯卢布成为了今年全球表现最佳的货币，涨幅甚至远远超 过了黄金这一传统避险资产。 数据显示，今年迄今，俄罗斯卢布兑美元在场外交易中上涨了38%。美元因美国总统特朗普不断升级的关税战而面临巨大压力，卢布却因许多俄罗斯 独有的因素而受到支撑，其中包括创纪录的高利率。 当然，美国对俄罗斯政策的缓和迹象重新激发了卢布在套利交易中的吸引力。Istar资本研究与投资组合管理主管Iskander Lutsko表示，尽管制裁风 险仍然存在，外国投资者仍在转向那些与俄罗斯保持良好关系的国家，以获取高收益的卢布资产。 Lutsko补充说，除此之外，俄罗斯企业渴望利用成本低得多的人民币贷款，为成本高昂的本币债务进行再融资，这推动了更多的外币兑换成卢布。 与此同时，美元指数跌至六个月低点，因为特朗普在关税政策上的最新反复无常，加剧了投资者对美国资产的不安情绪，并削弱了美 ...