三季度以来，A股持续走高，但在"股债跷跷板"效应等其他因素影响下，债市则持续调整。与此同时，近一个月的纯债基金业绩也难言乐观，有近七成产品 的收益率告负，若拉长时间至年内来看，也有超两成纯债基金的收益率下跌。有业内人士认为，债券市场后续有望迎来新一波反弹行情。不过，也有观点指 出，债市调整的终点或难以精确判断，但若后续出现修复行情，债券收益率可能也不太会出现快速的报复性反弹。 | MALIN 2,957,700 6,414,100 | 639.10 558.77 507.55 | 2.94 2.57 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 72,352,200 | 523.34 | 2.41 | | | | | 2.34 | 7.01 | | 23,040,600 | 492.48 | 2.27 | 21.37 | | 002,609,200 | 491.13 | 2.26 | 2.10 | | 19,590,800 | 438.42 | 2.02 | | | | 423.00 | | | | STITLE US | | | | | 8941,200 | 346.4 | | | | 7 ...

美联储将于9月16日和17日召开货币政策会议，市场普遍预计美联储届时将开启新一轮降息。 目前来看，市场已经确信美联储将会至少降息25个基点，但降息50个基点的难度很大。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储本周降息25个基点的概率达96.4%， 降息50个基点的概率仅为3.6%。有分析指出，本周美联储会议声明的措辞、利率点阵图以及投票结果，将是判断美联储未来货币政策走向的关键。 每经编辑｜金冥羽 潘海福 据央视新闻，当地时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普对记者表示，他预计美联储将在本周的会议上宣布"大幅降息"。 特朗普称："我认为会有一次大幅降息。"若成真，这将是美联储自去年12月以来首次降息。 美联储将传达"鸽派"基调 投资者对美联储将开启一轮降息周期的乐观情绪，已经将资产价格推至高位。在债券市场，基准10年期美国国债收益率徘徊在4月份以来的最低点附近。 在股票市场，美股三大指数屡创新高，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数在上周五创下新纪录，并录得一年多来最长的连续上涨。 | 23992.56 成交额 2399.46亿 24092.19 | | 昨夜 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of spot gold is around $3,626.29, with a recent report showing a slight decline of 0.31% to $3,631.60 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - Market expectations are shifting towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with nearly 100% probability, and a 4% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [2] - UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo predicts that gold prices could rise to $3,900 per ounce by mid-next year, driven by multiple factors including a declining interest rate environment and increased geopolitical uncertainty [2] Group 2 - The market is eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve's upcoming statement, as even a slight dovish hint could trigger a new rally in gold prices [3] - Gold prices have increased by 39% this year, transforming from a neglected asset to a market focal point, supported by significant inflows into ETFs [2] - Current gold price movements show a potential for upward trends, despite some expected corrections, with support levels being monitored closely [4]

洞察2025下半年楼市：四大趋势重塑购房决策 2025年，我国房地产市场，这个牵动万千家庭神经的焦点，正经历着一场深刻的变革。当时间的指针指向年中，楼市的未来走向，尤其是房价的涨跌迷雾， 似乎因一系列新的迹象而逐渐清晰。2025年下半年，四大显著变化正悄然勾勒出未来房地产市场的轮廓，为那些置业者心中的衡量尺提供了更坚实的依据。 一、房贷利率的"寒冬"：十年未遇的低位 2025年下半年，房贷利率的持续走低无疑是楼市最令人瞩目的动态之一。中国人民银行公布的数据显示，截至8月，全国首套房平均贷款利率已跌破4%，报 3.8%，较年初下降了0.5个百分点。这一数字不仅创下了近十年的新低，更在上海、北京等一线城市，将首套房贷利率推至3.6%以下。这意味着，对于购置 一套总价500万元、贷款350万元、分期30年的住房的家庭而言，每月还款额将比年初减少约1000元，累计下来，30年的总利息支出将节省近36万元。这笔巨 款，对于许多寻常百姓家庭而言，无疑是减轻了沉重的财务负担。 深入探究利率下降的根源，离不开央行上半年以来一贯的宽松货币政策。存款准备金率的两次下调，累计释放了超过1.2万亿元的长期资金；7月，中期借贷 便利（ ...

随着美国经济政策的风向标再次转向，特朗普总统正通过一系列大胆举措，试图加强对美联储的掌控 力。白宫高级经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）的美联储理事提名在参议院金融委员会的投票中 迈出关键一步，这一进展不仅为特朗普在美联储决策桌上增添了一位重要盟友，也可能对美国未来的利 率政策和货币调控方向产生深远影响。然而，米兰的提名之路并非一帆风顺，时间紧迫的确认程序和党 派间的激烈争斗为这一提名蒙上了一层不确定性。 米兰提名获参议院金融委员会通过，党派分歧明显 参议院金融委员会的激烈交锋 提名背后的政治考量 民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）直言不讳地指出，米兰的提名"是特朗普对其忠诚度的 考验"。她认为，米兰在美联储的每一票都可能受到特朗普政治意图的直接影响，这种"从属关系"可能 威胁美联储作为独立机构的公信力。与此同时，共和党参议员、参议院银行委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特 （Tim Scott）则高度赞扬米兰，称其拥有"深厚的经验、久经考验的领导力以及确保美国经济保持强劲 和竞争力的明确承诺"。斯科特的表态无疑为米兰的提名增添了更多政治背书，也为后续的参议院全体 审议铺平了道路 ...

Core Viewpoint - ANZ Bank has raised its year-end spot gold target to $3,800 per ounce, anticipating a peak near $4,000 by June next year, driven by a weaker dollar and central bank gold purchases [1] Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - Spot gold reached a historical high of $3,674 this week, with a year-to-date increase of 38% [1] - Factors such as loose monetary policy and geopolitical tensions are expected to enhance the attractiveness of gold investments [1] - ANZ forecasts central bank gold purchases to remain between 900 to 950 tons in 2025, with an expected 485 to 500 tons in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Several central banks have signaled intentions to purchase gold, with the Czech central bank's gold reserves reaching a record high [1] - China's gold reserves have been increasing for ten consecutive months as of the end of August [1] Group 3: ETF Investments - ANZ predicts that the gold holdings in major markets will increase, with an additional 200 tons of ETF investments expected in the remainder of 2025 [1] Group 4: Silver Market Outlook - ANZ has also raised its year-end silver target to $44.7 per ounce, with spot silver reaching a 14-year high on Monday [1] Group 5: Monetary Policy Implications - Labor market risks may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain loose monetary policies until March 2026, further enhancing gold's appeal [1]

格隆汇9月5日｜分析师Audrey Childe表示，8月就业报告让美元空头再获提振，这份报告不仅印证了美 联储9月降息25个基点的说法，还可能引发关于美联储未来将采取更激进宽松政策的猜测。这验证了我 们关于四季度欧元对美元将受美国收益率推动而走高的观点，目前欧元对美元突破1.1750关口已近在眼 前。需要注意的是，欧元自身环境绝非乐观——尤其是法国政坛局势——但就目前而言，我们预计该货 币对的走势将主要由美国方面的因素主导。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - The strength of the US dollar amidst bond market volatility indicates that investors still have confidence in the "American exceptionalism" narrative, believing that the US economy is better equipped to handle crises compared to other economies [1] Economic Outlook - The extent to which the Federal Reserve will yield to political pressure remains uncertain, especially as current economic conditions increasingly justify a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - A weak employment report could provide the Federal Reserve with sufficient reasons to consider interest rate cuts [1] - The clarity of the Federal Reserve's independence will only become apparent if inflation rises, necessitating tighter monetary policy [1] Inflation and Tariffs - As long as inflation remains moderate and the US economy continues to weaken, market participants may continue to "paint a rosy picture" regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The situation may become more complicated when tariffs start to have a stronger impact on US prices [1]

通胀数据延续回落态势，二季度CPI同比上涨2.1%，创2021年3月以来新低，接近央行2%-3%目标区间 下限。市场分析认为，宽松货币政策正逐步传导至实体经济。 值得关注的是，澳大利亚央行在8月货币政策会议中宣布降息25个基点至3.6%，并释放谨慎乐观信号。 该央行表示，尽管全球经济不确定性仍存，但美国关税政策范围与规模逐渐明朗，降低了极端风险发生 的可能性。 澳大利亚国内方面，私人需求呈现复苏迹象，实际家庭收入回升与金融环境改善形成支撑，但澳大利亚 央行同步将2024年经济增长预测从2.1%下调至1.7%，主要归因于生产率增长预期减弱而非贸易中断。 澳大利亚第二季度经济增速超预期，创下2023年9月以来最快增长纪录。数据显示，当季GDP同比增长 1.8%，高于调查预测的1.6%，较上一季度1.3%的增速明显提升;环比增速达0.6%，同样超出市场预期的 0.5%。 澳大利亚统计局指出，家庭消费与政府支出共同构成增长核心动力，其中政府支出贡献0.2个百分点， 但公共投资下降0.2个百分点形成部分抵消。矿业出口延续强势，但净贸易对整体经济拉动作用有限。 西太平洋银行-墨尔本研究所最新数据显示，8月消费者信心指数跃 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the influence of political pressures on the Federal Reserve, highlighting the historical context of such interventions and the current situation under Trump's administration, where he seeks a more compliant Fed to implement his economic strategies [1]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Federal Reserve has historically been a stabilizing force in the U.S. financial system, but its independence has often been challenged by political pressures, particularly during election years [1]. - The article references the Nixon era, where political pressure led to interest rate cuts that resulted in severe inflation, serving as a cautionary tale for current policymakers [1]. Group 2: Current Political Dynamics - Trump is exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve, advocating for interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy amid disappointing economic data [1]. - The article notes that Trump has publicly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and has targeted other board members, indicating a desire for a Fed that aligns with his economic agenda [1]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The potential appointment of Trump’s allies to the Federal Reserve Board could shift the balance towards more accommodative monetary policies, including rate cuts and increased money supply [1]. - The article suggests that if Trump succeeds in reshaping the Fed, monetary policy could become a tool for presidential campaigns, undermining the Fed's independence [1].