后台有留言，讨论关税战对创投行业的影响。中短期内，我觉得会有一些利空的影响。 但是长期，我认为无非就是全球贸易秩序重塑，漂亮国带自己的朋友圈，我们带我们的朋友圈。然后因 为我们是出口为主，所以我们建立自己的贸易圈，难度会比漂亮国大。 大就大呗。我们历史上，近代史上，面临的一个个挑战，就没有小的。 而贸易秩序重塑的过程，有没有可能反而会对我们的创投行业带来一些新的机会。 关于对创投行业的长期影响，我可能没有很强的宏观经济分析的能力，我想分享三个小故事。 （一） 上世纪末，漂亮国时任总统克林顿，邀请我方重新加入 WTO 。 是克林顿真把我们当朋友吗？ nono 我个人眼中，当时漂亮国的考量是：用我们的庞大人口，为欧美生产廉价商品，转移漂亮国的通胀； 同时，我们加入以美元为核心的世界经济体系，也有助于巩固美元的全球地位。 有很多坊间传闻说，克林顿完全没有想到，我们用了大概 20 年，就把光伏、新能源等等非常多的行业 干到了全球第一，完全没想到我们可以对漂亮国构成威胁。 为什么没想到？ 因为他们不理解，我们的劳动人民，为了创造美好的明天，而可以承受多少的辛苦， 忍受多少的劳累。 （二） 很多业内传言，这次关税战之后， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's initiative to boost consumption through a comprehensive action plan, highlighting the importance of consumer spending as a potential engine for economic growth, alongside other factors such as AI-related investments and real estate market stabilization [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption Performance - The retail sales growth rate for social consumer goods increased from 3.7% in December to 4% in January-February, indicating a stabilization in consumer demand, particularly in the restaurant and communication equipment sectors [5][6]. - The "trade-in" policy is expected to enhance retail sales growth by approximately 1 percentage point, with the total subsidy for 2024 projected to reach 300 billion, significantly increasing from the previous year's 150 billion [6][7]. Group 2: Policy Impact on Consumption - The action plan aims to improve consumer capacity and willingness through various measures, including direct subsidies and incentives, which are anticipated to have a noticeable impact on consumption in the second quarter [8][9]. - Policies such as lowering housing fund loan rates and providing interest subsidies for consumer loans are expected to marginally improve residents' cash flow and enhance disposable income [9][10]. Group 3: Economic Growth Engines - The article emphasizes the need to monitor the transition from export-driven growth to domestic consumption, with real estate market recovery and fiscal spending being critical variables for economic stability [11]. - AI-related investments are projected to enter a "boom" phase, potentially driving GDP growth, with China's investment in AI expected to outpace that of the U.S. in the coming years due to its unique advantages [12].

作 者丨王峰 编 辑丨李博 在近日举行的中国发展高层论坛2 0 2 5年年会上，中金公司原总裁兼首席执行官朱云来演讲时 指出， 中国过去二十多年的经济增长，彰显出极为显著的系统性人力资源质量增长，突出表 现在我国科学家与工程师的总体规模已接近2 0 0 0万人，与G7国家同类人才数量的总和相当。 前不久，英伟达创始人兼CEO黄仁勋在GTC的采访中表示， 全球5 0%的AI研究人员来自中 国，这是迄今为止最大的单一群体，没有接近的第二名。 "因此，很自然地，中国在AI研究 方面将会做出巨大贡献。事实上，美国的每一家AI实验室无一例外都有许多优秀的中国研究 人员。" 如果说改革开放以来，在我国丰富的劳动力数量带来的人口红利支撑下，经济实现了高速增 长。已有经济学家指出，下一轮中国经济的更好发展，要靠第二次"人口红利"，这主要体现 在 劳动力的质量 而非数量方面，或者可以把第二波"人口红利"直接称为"工程师红利"。 有研究认为，我国拥有世界上规模最大的工程师队伍。我国工程师总量从2 0 0 0年的5 2 1万人增 加到2 0 2 0年的1 7 6 5 . 3万人，增长约3 . 4倍，年均增速为6 . 3%。2 0 ...

Core Insights - The China Development Forum 2025 concluded recently, marking its 25th anniversary with participation from 86 multinational companies from 21 countries, indicating a record high of new attendees [1] - Multinational companies are keen to understand China's latest economic policies and development trends, seeking opportunities in the Chinese market amidst global challenges [1] - The forum highlighted China's transition towards high-quality development and its impact on the global economy, emphasizing the need to address both internal and external challenges [1] Group 1 - Foreign business leaders noted China's burgeoning innovation momentum, with significant investments such as AstraZeneca's $2.5 billion commitment to establish a strategic R&D center in Beijing [2] - The investment model of foreign companies in China is shifting from manufacturing to research and development, reflecting China's move from low-end manufacturing to high-end manufacturing and technological innovation [2] - China's vast consumer market potential and the emergence of an "engineer dividend" are expected to drive economic growth, supported by a favorable business environment [2]