本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【聚烯烃与苯乙烯期货行情震荡，供需格局影响价格走势】今日，聚烯烃期货震荡偏弱。LLDPE09合 约收7249元/吨，跌0.51%，持仓减2631手；PP09合约收7044元/吨，跌0.68%，持仓减2430手。现货价格 也偏弱调整，石化厂下调部分出厂价，贸易商让利出货。国内LLDPE市场主流价7200 - 7750元/吨；PP 市场观望氛围浓，华北、华东、华南拉丝主流价分别在7020 - 7150元/吨、7050 - 7200元/吨、7080 - 7220元/吨。 供给上，装置检修增加，供应收缩。截至6月26日当周，PE开工率72.45%，周环比降 7.32%；PP开工率79.26%，周环比降2.52%。需求处季节性淡季，表现疲软。截至当周，农膜等多行业 开工率有不同表现。 库存方面，2025 - 07 - 01两油库存75.5万吨，环比增3.5万吨。截至6月27日当周， PE贸易库存减1.475万吨，PP社会贸易库存减0.34万吨。成本端，OPEC+计划大幅增产，利空油价。 市 场逻辑上，供应收缩压力稍缓，但需求淡季，聚烯烃供需宽松，成本支撑不足。 ...

农产品期权 2025-07-02 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品有所转弱，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖延续偏弱， 棉花温和上涨，谷物类玉米和淀粉逐渐回暖上升后窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ...

积存金·盯盘神器显示，即便反弹，上方空间依然受限 金十VIP盯盘神器·积存金可实时查看积存金报价的黄金最新支撑阻力参考位。当前最新的指标共振点汇总图（1小时）显示，最 强阻力位参考774.04-774.87元，再往上还能看到一处较强阻力在778.18-779.02元附近，或暗示反弹空间依然有限。更多积存金价 格参考可以点击金十VIP页面-盯盘神器，选择"积存金"分类即可实时查看。注：本报价为国际金价换算参考的虚拟报价，不代 表实际买卖成交数据，仅供参考。 盯盘神器使用指南 现货黄金 ...

能源化工期权 2025-07-02 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

【现货方面】 7月1日，PTA期货跌后反弹，现货市场商谈氛围较清淡，递盘稀少，现货基差快速走弱。本周及下周货 在09+160~200附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4930~5020附近。7月中下在09+160有成交。主流现货基 差在09+175。 【成本方面】 7月1日，PTA现货加工费至330元/吨附近，TA2509盘面加工费350元/吨。 【供需方面】 供应：上周逸盛新材料360万吨降负运行，PTA负荷降至77.7%（-1.4%）。 需求：上周聚酯负荷小幅下降至91.2%附近（-0.8%）。7月1日，涤丝价格重心零星下调50-100，产销整 体清淡。虽然油价回落后，长丝工厂有进行促销，但是促销效果并不明显，且本次价格依然显著高于上 次同样油价时候的丝价。目前处于淡季以及天气较热，销售会较为平淡，开工率下滑，坯布库存有所上 升。后期丝价较大概率下行为主。近期需关注长丝企业减产和长丝价格重心调整情况。 【行情展望】 尽管福海创和恒力装置检修兑现，不过因PTA新装置稳定运行，下游聚酯工厂7月存减产预期以及终端 需求偏弱，PTA供需预期转弱，近两日基差明显走弱。叠加油价支撑有限，短期PTA反弹承压，但绝对 价格仍受 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as cautious bullishness, short - selling, and range - bound trading based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, while the demand from the aluminum product industry weakens. With a favorable macro - environment but potential downward risks in the fundamentals, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed at 2,985 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day. The alumina plants' production is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also stable. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 contract of zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [2]. - **Lead**: The 2507 contract of lead closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The futures price is expected to trade in a wide range [2][3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the near - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract of polysilicon closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the futures premium has narrowed. It is recommended to exit the single - side position and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 710.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral in the short - term, but there is an over - supply situation in the medium - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract, and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of coking coal are relatively loose, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean market lacks new drivers. The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state, and the domestic soybean meal follows the international cost. The focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is falling. The supply and demand of corn are tightening, and it is expected that the futures price will trade with a bullish bias [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed at 5,716 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated, and the domestic cotton futures price is bullish. The sown area of US cotton has decreased, while the domestic sown area is higher than expected. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is weak. The supply is decreasing marginally but still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is increasing. The short - term market is in a weak seasonal stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract of eggs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is low. The futures price is expected to trade in a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be bullish, but the medium - term price may decline [7]. - **Apples**: The futures price of apples is affected by the early - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving marginally. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [8][9]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract of PVC closed at 4,834 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,950 [9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is stable, and the PTA supply is decreasing in the short - term. The polyester demand is mixed. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, look for positive spread opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short - sell the processing margin in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of rubber closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The raw material price is falling, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term market is range - bound. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and hold positive spreads in RU - NR [9]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract of glass closed at 980 yuan/ton, down 3.7%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9][10]. - **PP**: The PP main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a high level, and the demand is mixed. The market is in a balanced state. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is in a range - bound state. The short - term demand is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract declined slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is in a bottom - range trading state. It is recommended to hedge and sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 [11].

现货黄金持续攀升，短线已企稳于3350上方。盯盘神器显示，黄金市场情绪偏多，实盘多空订单比出现失衡，做多比例更高。 支撑位：15分钟的实盘订单流数据显示，3353的位置存在大量买盘，有望构成短线关键支撑位。在其下方，则指标共振点显示 的较强支撑位3346.61。 阻力位：指标共振点（15分钟）显示，上方最强阻力位在3361.58，若未能上破此处，短线或存在回调可能。此处空头挂单也较 为丰富，或限制金价进一步上行。 盯盘神器·现货黄金：此处空头挂单较为丰富，或限制金价继续上行 具体见"VIP专区-盯盘神器"。 现货黄金 盯盘神器使用指南： 盯盘神器使用指南： 该内容仅为VIP用户提供 解锁VIP注解 盯盘神器使用指南： ...

PX成本支撑偏弱，关注TA高加工费供应压力增大可能 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 06月30日，PX 主力合约收6796.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.65%，基差为 40.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4798.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.42%，基差 为222.0元/吨。 成本端，06月30日，布油主力合约收盘66.34美元/桶。WTI收65.07美元/ 桶。需求端，06月30日，轻纺城成交总量为663.0万米，15 日平均成交为 620.33万米。 PX：成本端受国际原油价格维持窄幅震荡趋势，能提供的支撑相对有限。 亚洲地区新增装置投产预期可能带来供应压力，叠加下游PTA加工费修复空 间有限或抑制原料采购积极性，预计PX价格将维持震荡格局。 PTA：PTA下游聚酯开工率高位，终端纺织成交回暖，需求端有所反弹。基 差走强反映现货偏紧，PX成本支撑边际减弱，PTA加工费高位下开工负荷或 继续维持，关注供应端恢复压力 ...

金十VIP盯盘神器·积存金可实时查看积存金报价的黄金最新支撑阻力参考位。当前最新的指标共振点汇总图（1小时）显示，目 前正进一步往最强阻力位774.33-775.43元迈进，但即便遇阻回落，下方支撑也相对密集。更多积存金价格参考可以点击金十VIP 页面-盯盘神器，选择"积存金"分类即可实时查看。注：本报价为国际金价换算参考的虚拟报价，不代表实际买卖成交数据，仅 供参考。 盯盘神器使用说明 盯盘神器网页版入口 现货黄金 积存金·盯盘神器显示，往最强阻力位继续挺进 ...

数据来源：Wind、SMM、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免费声明 免费声明 期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】 2025年7月1日 星期二 Z0015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79990 | 80125 | -135.00 | -0.17% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 130 | 110 | +20.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 79940 | 80070 | -130.00 | -0.16% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 65 | તેર | -30.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79915 | 80045 | -130.00 | -0.16% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | રક | 30 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2131 | 1965 | +166.39 | 8.47% | 元 ...