Group 1: Market Trends - Recent surge in agricultural futures prices, particularly soybean meal, driven by increased downstream demand [2] - On July 18, soybean meal futures opened at 3031 CNY/ton, peaking at 3059 CNY/ton, closing at 3056 CNY/ton, marking a 1.49% increase [2] - Soybean meal futures have been on an upward trend since early 2025, influenced by rising costs and macroeconomic improvements [2][3] Group 2: Import Costs - Rising import costs for soybeans, with U.S. soybean import cost at 4616 CNY, Brazilian soybeans at 3910 CNY, and Argentine soybeans at 3707 CNY as of July 18 [3] - The increase in soybean meal prices is linked to higher import costs, particularly due to improved U.S. soybean exports and strong Brazilian soybean prices [3][4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. soybean crushing volume adjusted upward by 1.4 million tons to 69.13 million tons due to increased demand for biodiesel [4] - China's soybean imports from January to June 2025 totaled 49.37 million tons, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with a notable shift in import sources [6] - Current soybean meal inventory levels are high, with oil mills facing storage issues, leading to slower downstream purchasing despite rising prices [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The soybean meal market is expected to remain supported by strong Brazilian pricing and uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade relations [8][9] - The potential for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China could positively impact soybean exports, providing a boost to the market [5][8] - The upcoming weather conditions in U.S. soybean-producing regions will be critical for determining future price trends [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent increase in palm oil futures prices and explores the fundamental conditions that need to be met for the price to continue rising [1] Group 1 - Palm oil futures have seen a significant rise today, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] - The article raises questions about the fundamental factors that would support a continued increase in palm oil prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 9, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices fluctuated on July 9. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.13% to 3493.05, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 10581.80, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.16% to 2184.67. The trading volume reached 1505.2 billion yuan, an increase of 51.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 index closed at 3991.40, down 7.05 from the previous day [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - Price movement: The weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1461.4, up 33.1 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was strong, closing at 882.8 yuan, up 29.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Influencing factors: For coke, there is an expectation of price increase, but the profit is meager, and the daily output has been falling. The overall inventory is decreasing, and the procurement willingness of traders and steel mills has slightly improved. For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines is starting to rise, the spot auction market has improved, and the terminal inventory has increased, but the overall inventory is decreasing [4]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Price movement: Affected by the technical adjustment of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated higher on July 9. The market expects the short - term decline of US sugar to be limited, and the expected decline in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of June also affected the price [4]. 2.3. Rubber - Price movement: Due to the prediction of heavy rain in Thailand, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated slightly higher on July 9. The market is worried about the supply, and the night - session price also rose [5]. 2.4. Soybean Meal - Price movement: The CBOT soybean futures fell on July 9. The domestic soybean meal futures market showed a pattern of loose supply. The M2509 contract closed at 2947 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The inventory of soybean meal in coastal areas increased, and the short - term futures price may fluctuate and adjust [6]. 2.5. Live Pigs - Price movement: The live pig futures price fluctuated on July 9. The LH2509 contract closed at 14265 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the terminal market is in the off - season, so the price lacks support [7]. 2.6. Shanghai Copper - Price movement: The US tariff policy and the slowdown of industrial demand in some economies have put pressure on copper prices. The domestic copper inventory has increased slightly, which has intensified the short - term bearish sentiment [7]. 2.7. Cotton - Price movement: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13880 yuan/ton on the night of July 9. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 39 lots [7]. 2.8. Logs - Price movement: The 2509 log futures opened at 785, with the lowest at 780.5, the highest at 787, and closed at 7853.5, with a reduction of 389 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. The port inventory increased slightly, and the demand was weak [8]. 2.9. Steel - Price movement: The rb2510 contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3190 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal and coke are stable and slightly strong, but the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, and the steel market may show a pattern of weak supply and demand [8]. 2.10. Alumina - Price movement: The ao2509 contract closed at 3130 yuan/ton. The anti - involution policy and the rectification of the photovoltaic industry have stimulated the bullish sentiment, and the price has broken through the 3100 - yuan mark [9]. 2.11. Shanghai Aluminum - Price movement: The al2508 contract closed at 20515 yuan/ton. The spot market was weak, the inventory in the East China region continued to increase, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The electrolytic aluminum inventory pressure is increasing [9][10].

Group 1 - Malaysian palm oil futures have experienced two consecutive days of gains, driven by a decline in palm oil production and strong export demand [1] - There is a potential decrease in Malaysia's palm oil inventory, which may impact market supply and demand dynamics [1] - The market is closely monitoring whether palm oil prices can maintain their strength amid these changing conditions [1]

Core Insights - The quality rating of U.S. soybeans remains unchanged, while the quality rating of U.S. corn has seen a slight increase, raising questions about when weather-related speculation will resume and how future prices will develop [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean quality rating is stagnant, indicating no improvement or decline in crop conditions [1] - U.S. corn quality rating has increased slightly, suggesting a potential for better yields [1] - The market is anticipating future weather conditions that could influence price movements [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the prices of palm oil and soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are declining, with expectations that the MPOB report may boost palm oil futures' resilience against further declines [1] - Institutions anticipate that the MPOB report will be bullish, which could positively influence market sentiment [1] - The USDA report is also mentioned, suggesting that it may have implications for market dynamics, although specific details are not provided [1]

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 1 日 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯 ...

Core Insights - Copper futures prices have retreated from a three-month high, raising questions about whether copper demand is genuinely weakening and if strong premiums can act as a stabilizer for prices [1] Group 1 - The recent decline in copper futures prices indicates potential shifts in market dynamics [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the actual demand for copper and its implications for future pricing [1] - The ability of strong premiums to stabilize prices remains a critical factor for market participants [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of soda ash futures prices remains weakly volatile due to supply decline from equipment maintenance, weak downstream demand, and inventory accumulation. The long - term pattern is one of oversupply. The weak demand for architectural glass also suppresses the continuous upward momentum of soda ash futures prices [8]. - The short - term rebound space of glass is limited, and it is expected to operate with low - level volatility. The glass market is in the traditional rainy season, with weakening orders, high supply, falling costs, and continuous inventory accumulation. The real - estate completion stage has not improved substantially [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data on June 26**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 oscillated strongly. The closing price was 1,180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 1.72%, with a daily reduction of 32,209 lots. Other contracts also showed certain price increases [7][8]. - **Soda Ash Fundamental Situation**: In the week of June 26, China's weekly soda ash output dropped to 716,700 tons, a 5.04% week - on - week decrease, and was still at a high level this year. The weekly capacity utilization rate fell to 82.21%, a 4.36% week - on - week decrease. The shipment volume was 676,500 tons, a 5.29% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory of manufacturers was 1,766,900 tons, a 2.33% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Glass Fundamental Situation**: In the traditional rainy season, glass processing orders weakened slightly. Supply remained high, costs declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. The real - estate completion stage had not improved substantially, and the spot market had intense price competition with declining transaction prices [9]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides price trend charts of active soda ash and glass contracts, as well as data on the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China and flat - glass production, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [11][14]

集运欧线期货跌势不止！马士基降价是短期调整，还是趋势性下跌的开始？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...