Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Bean Meal, Soybean Oil Futures Variety Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: July 21 - July 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Bean Meal Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main bean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase [7] - Trend Logic: In the 28th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. Bean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, an increase of 63,800 tons or 7.76% from the previous week. High domestic soybean arrivals and hot weather keep oil mills at high operating rates. Downstream feed enterprises adopt a strategy of appropriate low - price purchases, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. However, favorable US soybean export policies and high Brazilian soybean premiums drive up import costs. There is also significant uncertainty in Sino - US trade relations. Overall, bean meal futures are expected to continue wide - range oscillations [7] - Mid - term Strategy: Pay attention to the support level in the range of 2920 - 2950 [7] 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices was in a sideways phase, with strongly bearish funds. M2509 was expected to continue oscillating, with an expected operating range of 2880 - 3080 [10] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices is in an upward channel, with strongly bullish funds. M2509 is expected to be oscillating and bullish in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2920 - 3150 [11] 2.3 Variety Diagnosis - Bull - Bear Flow: The main force is strongly bullish, with an indicator of 94.7 [15] - Fund Energy: Funds are basically stable, with an indicator of - 16.7 [15] - Bull - Bear Disagreement: There is a high risk of a market reversal, with an indicator of 99.5 [15] 2.4 Related Data - Data includes bean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [20][22][25] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase [31] - Trend Logic: According to Mysteel data, in the 28th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 436,100 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0494 million tons, an increase of 297,000 tons from the previous week. High soybean arrivals and high crushing volumes, combined with the off - season of terminal consumption, result in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in the soybean oil market. However, competing oils such as palm oil are relatively strong. The expected consumption increase from biodiesel policies and the strengthening of Brazilian soybean premiums provide cost - side support. Overall, soybean oil futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation and consolidation phase [31] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in a sideways phase, with relatively bearish funds. Y2509 was expected to maintain wide - range oscillation and consolidation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7800 - 8100 [34] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, with relatively bullish funds. Y2509 is expected to maintain a bullish operation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7950 - 8300 [34] 3.3 Related Data - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][44][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2509 and synthetic rubber futures 2509 are expected to run strongly on July 19, 2025, with Shanghai rubber showing a short - term upward trend and a mid - term and intraday strong - oscillating trend, while synthetic rubber shows a short - term and intraday strong - oscillating trend and a mid - term oscillating trend [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: The supply side of the rubber market is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. The downstream demand is weak, with the growth rate of tire production and sales slowing down, and the terminal demand entering the off - season [5]. - **Driving Factors**: After the previous negative expectations were digested, the meteorological forecast of a typhoon hitting Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula on July 21, 2025, increased the expectation of production reduction, boosting the rubber price. On the night of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed up 2.16% to 14,885 yuan/ton [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on July 19, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up the production and capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber. The downstream demand is weak, with the growth rate of tire production and sales slowing down, and the terminal demand entering the off - season [7]. - **Driving Factors**: After the rubber price correction digested the negative factors, supported by the strength of Shanghai rubber and a bullish atmosphere, on the night of July 18, 2025, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the futures price closing up 1.52% to 11,655 yuan/ton [7]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on July 19, 2025, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on July 17, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong - side or weak - side oscillation, along with their respective resistance and support levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - side oscillation on July 17. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 4000 and 4020 points and support at 3952 and 3940 points; IH2509 has resistance at 2750 and 2763 points and support at 2716 and 2703 points; IC2509 has resistance at 5965 and 6000 points and support at 5860 and 5829 points; IM2509 has resistance at 6360 and 6400 points and support at 6260 and 6216 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate. T2509 has resistance at 108.92 and 109.00 yuan and support at 108.74 and 108.55 yuan; TL2509 has resistance at 121.0 and 121.2 yuan and support at 120.6 and 120.4 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold AU2510 and silver AG2510 are likely to oscillate and consolidate. AU2510 will accumulate strength to attack resistance at 781.8 and 786.8 yuan/gram with support at 773.8 and 771.8 yuan/gram; AG2510 has resistance at 9207 and 9267 yuan/kg and support at 9088 and 9061 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper CU2508, aluminum AL2509, and zinc ZN2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate. CU2508 has support at 77700 and 77500 yuan/ton and resistance at 78100 and 78400 yuan/ton; AL2509 has support at 20300 and 20230 yuan/ton and resistance at 20490 and 20600 yuan/ton; ZN2509 is likely to be in a strong - side oscillation, attacking resistance at 22100 and 22190 yuan/ton with support at 21950 and 21930 yuan/ton. Alumina AO2509 is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation, with support at 3046 and 3028 yuan/ton and resistance at 3138 and 3158 yuan/ton. Nickel NI2508 is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation, with support at 119100 and 118700 yuan/ton and resistance at 119900 and 120200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industrial and Energy Futures**: Industrial silicon SI2509, polysilicon PS2508, and lithium carbonate LC2509 are likely to be in a strong - side oscillation. SI2509 will attack resistance at 8790 and 8880 yuan/ton with support at 8600 and 8520 yuan/ton; PS2508 will attack resistance at 43250 and 44600 yuan/ton with support at 42360 and 41760 yuan/ton; LC2509 will attack resistance at 67700 and 68400 yuan/ton with support at 65500 and 65000 yuan/ton. Crude oil SC2508 is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation, with support at 508 and 505 yuan/barrel and resistance at 523 and 528 yuan/barrel. Fuel oil FU2509 and PTA TA509 are likely to be in a weak - side oscillation. FU2509 will test support at 2824 and 2800 yuan/ton with resistance at 2883 and 2911 yuan/ton; TA509 will test support at 4664 and 4644 yuan/ton with resistance at 4728 and 4754 yuan/ton [3][4][6]. - **Agricultural and Building Material Futures**: Rebar RB2510, hot - rolled coil HC2510, iron ore I2509, coking coal JM2509, glass FG509, soda ash SA509, caustic soda SH509, PVC V2509, and soybean meal M2509 are likely to be in a strong - side oscillation. For example, RB2510 will attack resistance at 3138 and 3149 yuan/ton with support at 3104 and 3094 yuan/ton; HC2510 will attack resistance at 3299 and 3320 yuan/ton with support at 3253 and 3247 yuan/ton. Natural rubber RU2509 is likely to be in a strong - side oscillation, with resistance at 14570 and 14710 yuan/ton and support at 14450 and 14320 yuan/ton [4][6][7]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Domestic Macro News**: The State Council held a meeting to study policies for strengthening the domestic cycle, heard reports on the new energy vehicle industry and budget audit rectification, and passed a draft amendment to a regulation on foreigners' entry and exit. The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The Third China International Supply - Chain Promotion Expo opened, and the Ministry of Commerce proposed high - level opening - up and implemented a policy on tax credit for foreign investors' reinvestment. The Ministry of Public Security aimed to combat intellectual property crimes, and the State Administration for Market Regulation piloted the decentralization of administrative approval for national secondary standard substances. China and Australia signed a memorandum on the implementation and review of the free - trade agreement [8][9][10]. - **International Macro News**: Trump made statements about the Fed chair, tariff policies, and trade agreements. The US June PPI was flat month - on - month, and the core PPI also showed a small increase. Trump planned to issue an executive order to promote pension investment in the private market. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight increase in economic activity with high uncertainty. The US launched a 301 investigation against Brazil, and Mexico opposed US tomato tariffs. The UK June CPI increased, raising concerns about the central bank's interest - rate policy [11][12][13]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **International Futures Market**: On July 16, international precious - metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 0.52% to 3354.20 dollars/ounce and COMEX silver up 0.04% to 38.13 dollars/ounce. International oil prices oscillated narrowly, with US crude up 0.18% to 66.64 dollars/barrel and Brent down 0.03% to 68.69 dollars/barrel. London base - metal futures mostly fell, showing an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [13]. - **Exchange - Rate Information**: On July 16, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 42 points at 7.1776, and the offshore RMB closed up 44 points at 7.1802. The US dollar index fell 0.35% to 98.29, and non - US currencies mostly rose [14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on July 16, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate; gold, silver, rebar, and crude oil futures are likely to experience weak fluctuations; industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures are anticipated to have strong and wide - range fluctuations; container shipping index (European Line) futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias; nickel and soybean meal futures are likely to have strong fluctuations [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On July 16, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][19]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong - biased fluctuation, with resistance at 109.00 and 109.06 yuan and support at 108.83 and 108.74 yuan [2][38]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a strong - biased fluctuation, with resistance at 121.0 and 121.2 yuan and support at 120.6 and 120.4 yuan [2][42]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 773.8 and 768.7 yuan/gram, with resistance at 780.4 and 781.8 yuan/gram [2][45]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 9088 and 9040 yuan/kg, with resistance at 9207 and 9267 yuan/kg [3][49]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 77700 and 77500 yuan/ton and resistance at 78100 and 78400 yuan/ton [3][52]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 3117 and 3100 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3187 and 3208 yuan/ton [3][57]. - **Zinc Futures**: The ZN2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 22000 and 21860 yuan/ton, with resistance at 22090 and 22130 yuan/ton [3][60]. - **Nickel Futures**: The NI2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a strong fluctuation and may attack resistance at 121500 and 122300 yuan/ton, with support at 119600 and 119400 yuan/ton [3][66]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The SI2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation and may attack resistance at 8900 and 9000 yuan/ton, with support at 8740 and 8620 yuan/ton [3][69]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: The PS2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation and may attack resistance at 43250 and 44600 yuan/ton, with support at 42360 and 41760 yuan/ton [3][71]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation and may accumulate strength to attack resistance at 68400 and 69000 yuan/ton, with support at 66000 and 64200 yuan/ton [4][73]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 3100 and 3085 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3121 and 3131 yuan/ton [4][76]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 3238 and 3225 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3259 and 3273 yuan/ton [6][82]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate and may accumulate strength to attack resistance at 770 and 777 yuan/ton, with support at 760 and 755 yuan/ton [6][83]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 900 and 890 yuan/ton, with resistance at 920 and 928 yuan/ton [6][92]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 1078 and 1084 yuan/ton and support at 1057 and 1048 yuan/ton [6][92]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 1231 and 1241 yuan/ton and support at 1200 and 1194 yuan/ton [6][95]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 514 and 511 yuan/barrel, with resistance at 523 and 528 yuan/barrel [6][97]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: The FU2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong fluctuation and may attack resistance at 2883 and 2911 yuan/ton, with support at 2840 and 2824 yuan/ton [7][103]. - **PTA Futures**: The TA509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 4686 and 4664 yuan/ton and resistance at 4728 and 4760 yuan/ton [7][103]. - **PVC Futures**: The V2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 4950 and 4925 yuan/ton, with resistance at 4977 and 5000 yuan/ton [7][105]. - **Methanol Futures**: The MA509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 2359 and 2336 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2400 and 2413 yuan/ton [7][107]. - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The M2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong fluctuation and may attack resistance at 3001 and 3004 yuan/ton, with support at 2974 and 2960 yuan/ton [7][109]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: The RU2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 14570 and 14710 yuan/ton and support at 14320 and 14220 yuan/ton [7][111]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures**: The EC2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias and may attack resistance at 1802 and 1888 points, with support at 1640 and 1600 points [7][113]. 2. Macro - information and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; Premier Li Qiang held the 10th China - Australia Prime Minister's Annual Meeting; the Central Urban Work Conference was held; China's semi - annual economic report showed GDP growth of 5.3% in H1 2025; housing prices in various cities showed different trends; China adjusted the catalog of prohibited and restricted export technologies; domestic refined oil prices were adjusted; the 3rd China International Supply Chain Expo opened [8][9][10]. - **International News**: Trump reached an agreement with Indonesia; US CPI in June 2025 rose 2.7% year - on - year; the selection process for the next Fed Chairman started; the EU may postpone trade counter - measures; the EU failed to reach an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia; NVIDIA will resume selling H20 chips in China [10][11][12]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - On July 15, 2025, international precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold down 0.85% and COMEX silver down 1.95%. International oil prices slightly declined, with US oil down 0.34% and Brent crude down 0.52%. London base metals mostly fell, except for copper which rose 0.40%. OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast. China's industrial output of coal, oil, and gas increased in June 2025. The RMB exchange rate and the US dollar index showed certain trends. Investors considered shorting the US dollar the most crowded trade [12][13][14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On July 15, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 showed different trends, generally with a slight decline and weakening upward momentum. It is expected that in July 2025, these contracts will fluctuate with an upward bias [15][16][18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures showed an upward trend. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the money market showed certain changes. It is expected that on July 16, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will have a strong - biased fluctuation [36][37][42]. - **Other Futures**: Each futures contract showed different trends on July 15, 2025, and the report provides corresponding price range forecasts for July 16, 2025, and some also for July 2025 [45][49][52].

7月14日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前。其中，工业硅期货主力合约开盘报8460.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，工业硅主力最高触及8740.0元，下方探低8350.0元，涨幅达2.85%附近。 目前来看，工业硅行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于工业硅后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 广州期货指出，反内卷效果显著，下游多晶硅大幅上调报价，其利润得到明显修复，市场预期对原料工 业硅采购压价情绪或有所缓解，进而带动工业硅市场情绪改善，在库存压力并未进一步增加情况下，短 期或仍有支撑。但西南丰水期背景下，后续南方工厂套保意愿或逐步增强，对反弹高度存在压制。策略 上，波段操作思路，主力合约参考区间（8000，9000）。 中辉期货表示，强预期VS弱现实，成本端焦煤反弹对工业硅形成支撑。基本面尚未出现实质性改善， 高库存压制上方反弹空间。价格波动剧烈谨慎追涨【8240-8550】。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，从供应端来看，本期工业硅现货价格大幅上行，当前西北伊犁地区的化肥 补贴政策仍保持稳定执行，暂无显著调整；大型生产企业未传出减产或停产的相关消息。西南区域生产 成本有所下降，其中保 ...

Group 1: Corn Market Analysis - The long-term outlook for corn is a range-bound operation, with medium-term strategies suggesting buying on dips, while short-term auctions continue with prices seeking support [1] - Short-term auction transaction rates for imported corn are declining, and the premium is narrowing, indicating weak bullish expectations in the spot market [1] - Medium-term supply may tighten due to reduced imports and substitutes, but price increases are limited by narrowing price differentials and increased wheat substitution [1] - Long-term price limitations are expected from policy grain releases and wheat substitution, with a focus on import substitution and planting cost pricing [1] - Strategy suggests support levels for the 2509 contract at 2300 - 2320, with potential for wave trading on effective support [1] Group 2: Live Pig Market Analysis - The long-term outlook for live pigs is bearish, with medium-term expectations of a range-bound market and short-term rebounds facing resistance [1] - Short-term market conditions show both support and resistance, leading to price fluctuations [1] - Medium-term supply may increase due to a rise in new piglets and limited declines in slaughter weights, making price increases challenging [1] - Long-term production capacity is expected to be realized due to high breeding sow inventory and improved production efficiency [1] - Strategy indicates first resistance for the 2509 contract at 14400 - 14600 and second resistance at 14800 - 15000, with attention to 13800 resistance for the 2511 contract [1] Group 3: Egg Market Analysis - The egg price may confirm a phase of bottoming out, with futures trading based on basis logic [1] - Short-term supply remains stable, limiting downside potential and suggesting a confirmation of the bottom [1] - Medium-term expectations include a rebound in spot prices during the peak season in August-September, influenced by culling rates [1] - Long-term projections indicate a return to profitability for breeding in Q3, with potential supply pressures in Q4 leading to price declines [1] - Strategy suggests initial upward pressure on main contracts, with resistance levels for the 08 contract at 3600 - 3650 and support at 3400 - 3450, while the 09 contract faces resistance at 3700 - 3720 and support at 3500 - 3550 [1]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【玉米、生猪、鸡蛋期货行情分析及策略建议】玉米期货方面，长线呈区间运行，中线适合低多思路。 短期进口玉米拍卖持续，成交率降低、溢价幅度缩小，现货市场看涨预期减弱，整体弱稳。中期进口谷 物缩量和替代减量，国内供给宽松格局或趋紧，价格重心偏强，但玉米价差收窄、小麦替代增加，上方 空间不宜乐观。长期政策粮源投放和小麦替代限制价格，维持进口替代和种植成本定价逻辑，关注政策 导向。策略上，2509合约支撑关注2300 - 2320，有效可波段做多。生猪期货，长线宜高空，中线呈区间 运行，短线反弹试探压力。短期猪价震荡，中期2 - 5月新生仔猪增加，出栏体重降幅有限，供给增量预 期仍在，上涨难。长期能繁母猪存栏高于正常，生产效率提升，全年产能将持续兑现。策略上，2509合 约第一压力14400 - 14600，第二压力14800 - 15000；2511合约关注13800压力。鸡蛋期货，蛋价或确认 阶段性底部，按基差逻辑交易。短期供给稳定，下跌空间有限。中期集中淘汰和中秋旺季或使8 - 9月现 货反弹，高点取决于淘鸡节奏。长期若三季度养殖利润转正，四季度供给压力 ...

Report Date - The report is dated July 10, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 10, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, and commodity futures [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation on July 10, 2025. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 3978 and 4000 points and support at 3940 and 3930 points [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate on July 10, 2025 [2][33] - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, aluminum, industrial silicon, etc. are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation; silver and soybean meal are expected to be in a weak - biased oscillation on July 10, 2025 [1][2] Macro News and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: China's June CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and core CPI continued to rise. New employment - stabilizing policies were introduced, and market supervision strengthened fair competition [8][9] - **International News**: Trump proposed tariff increases on multiple countries. The Fed showed differences in interest rate outlooks, and the EU prepared counter - measures against the US in trade disputes [9][10] Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On July 9, COMEX gold futures rose 0.17%, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% [11] - **Crude Oil**: On July 9, US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices declined slightly, and US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased [11] - **Base Metals**: On July 9, LME copper futures fell 1.33%, and LME zinc and aluminum futures rose [11] Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 9, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed a downward trend with weakened upward momentum and increased downward pressure. It is expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation in July [12][13][18] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 9, 2025, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The ten - year and thirty - year futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate on July 10 [33][38] - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodity futures showed different trends on July 9, 2025, and their trends on July 10 are predicted, such as gold futures being in a strong - biased oscillation and silver futures being in a weak - biased oscillation [41][46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the short - term, in the context of the strengthening of the cotton spot price, the price of the cotton 2509 contract may continue the trend of fluctuating and strengthening. It is necessary to closely monitor the support of the 5 - day moving average in the future [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview and Market Review - **1.1 Overall Market Performance on the Day** - On July 2, 2025, the opening price of the main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures was 13,730 yuan/ton. The price showed a fluctuating and strengthening pattern during the day, with an intraday peak of 13,850 yuan/ton and an intraday low of 13,720 yuan/ton. It finally closed at 13,805 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume for the whole day was 182,581 lots, the open interest decreased by 2,771 lots, and the total open interest reached 560,465 lots [2]. - The trading volume of cotton options on that day was 95,770 lots, and the total open interest reached 360,536 lots, an increase of 7,129 lots compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **1.2 Futures Market Data** - For contract CF2507, the closing price was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton or 0.63%, with a trading volume of 1,081 lots, an amplitude of 0.67%, an open interest of 18,553 lots, and a daily decrease of 98 lots. - For contract CF2509, the closing price was 13,805 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.51%, with a trading volume of 182,581 lots, an amplitude of 0.95%, an open interest of 560,465 lots, and a daily decrease of 2,771 lots. - For contract CF2601, the closing price was 13,820 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.51%, with a trading volume of 53,324 lots, an amplitude of 0.98%, an open interest of 193,520 lots, and a daily increase of 2,882 lots [5]. - **1.3 Spot Market Data** - According to the monitoring data of the Cotlook M Index on July 2, the average arrival price of imported cotton was 75.54 cents/pound, down 0.18 cents/pound from July 1. After conversion, the import cost was 13,156 yuan/ton under the 1% tariff and 14,003 yuan/ton under the sliding - scale tariff [5]. - The domestic CC Index 3128B closed at 15,089 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from July 1. The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton at Shandong warehouses (Grade 3128B) was currently quoted at 15,180 yuan/ton, also up 40 yuan/ton from July 1. The national cotton basis index CNCottonJ (CF2509) was quoted at 1,038 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from July 1 [6]. 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - **2.1 Tracking and Interpretation of Related Data** - **Analysis of the Open Interest of the Main Contract**: Among the top 20 seats of the main contract, the top three long - position increasing seats were CITIC Futures with a position of 85,574 lots and an increase of 3,044 lots, Dongzheng Futures with a position of 21,992 lots and an increase of 1,483 lots, and Founder CIFCO with a position of 14,683 lots and an increase of 291 lots. The top three long - position decreasing seats were Galaxy Futures with a position of 13,958 lots and a decrease of 4,008 lots, COFCO Futures with a position of 26,882 lots and a decrease of 2,011 lots, and Shenyin Wanguo with a position of 11,308 lots and a decrease of 1,212 lots [8]. - Among the top 20 seats of the main contract, the top three short - position increasing seats were Green大华 Futures with a position of 8,408 lots and an increase of 553 lots, Guotai Junan with a position of 25,157 lots and an increase of 270 lots, and Huatai Futures with a position of 10,568 lots and an increase of 263 lots. The top three short - position decreasing seats were COFCO Futures with a position of 53,340 lots and a decrease of 1,487 lots, Shenyin Wanguo with a position of 7,943 lots and a decrease of 1,251 lots, and Yong'an Futures with a position of 34,039 lots and a decrease of 596 lots [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a weak oscillation phase, and the glass futures market is also in an oscillatory trend. Due to the weak fundamentals of both industries, including high inventory, high production capacity, and subdued downstream demand, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures [6][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a weak oscillation. Last week, the market oscillated. On July 2nd, it rebounded due to policy and sentiment but dropped the next day. The industry's fundamentals are weak with high inventory and capacity, and the downstream glass industry's production cut expectations suppress demand. The overall supply is ample, and the price is pressured by the glass industry. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, and it is advisable to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The soda ash industry's high operating rate led to unchanged supply, while downstream glass demand was low. Without capacity adjustment or demand recovery, the futures price may oscillate weakly. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The industry fundamentals remain weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the expected operating range for soda ash 2509 being 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report lists data such as China's weekly soda ash operating rate, production, light and heavy - quality inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18]. - The main capital indicators show that the long - short flow is - 77.1 (more bearish), the capital energy is 78.3 (significant capital inflow), and the long - short divergence is 92.7 (high risk of market reversal) [22]. Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The glass market is in an oscillatory trend. Last week, the float glass price oscillated. The industry's operating rate was over 75%, and the production was 110.34 tons, a slight increase. Although the price in some areas rose slightly, the overall market focused on inventory reduction. High inventory pressure persists, and the supply - demand relationship has not improved significantly. It is expected that the price will oscillate with limited rebound space, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [30]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was regionally differentiated. The futures price rose slightly due to sentiment but was restricted by high inventory and weak demand. It was expected to continue oscillating, with the expected operating range for glass 2509 being 950 - 1150, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [33]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The float glass price oscillated last week. The market's core is still inventory reduction. High inventory pressure continues, and the supply - demand relationship has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the expected operating range for glass 2509 being 950 - 1150. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report lists data such as China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory [35][40][42]. - The main capital indicators show that the long - short flow is - 98.8 (more bearish), the capital energy is 40.1 (slight capital inflow), and the long - short divergence is 97.5 (high risk of market reversal) [46].