Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on soda ash and glass futures from October 27 - 31, 2025 [1][2] Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. The domestic soda ash market had a narrow - range oscillation last week, with only a slight increase in the price of light soda ash in North China. Supply remained high, demand was weak, and the oversupply situation was hard to change. The price is expected to be stable but weak, and the trading center may move down further. The futures may be more affected by emotions in the short term due to the approaching policy window [7] - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The domestic soda ash market continued its weak trend last week, with prices generally falling. Affected by supply - demand imbalance, the market was under pressure. It was expected that the price would continue to be weakly volatile in the short term, with a limited downward space. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The domestic soda ash market had a narrow - range oscillation last week. Supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventory accumulated. The short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose, and the price will be stable but weak. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 is still 1100 - 1250 [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率, production, light and heavy soda ash inventory, basis (daily), and the production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China (weekly). The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is slightly bearish, the capital energy is basically stable, and the risk of a market reversal is relatively high [12][16][18][22] Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Glass is in an oscillating trend. The spot price of float glass in China dropped by 30 - 90 yuan/ton last week, with significant declines in the southwest, north, and northeast. Supply was abundant, inventory accumulated, and demand was weak. The short - term weak - oscillation pattern is expected to continue. The glass futures reached a new low after a one - sided decline and then stabilized weakly. The market is still bearish, and the follow - up should focus on policies and seasonal changes [30] - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The domestic float glass market was generally weak last week, with prices falling in most regions. Demand recovered slowly, inventory pressure remained, and supply increase expectations further suppressed the market. The short - term narrow - range oscillation was expected to continue, and the futures also weakened [33] - This week's strategy suggestion: The spot price of float glass in China dropped last week. Supply - demand was loose, inventory accumulated, and demand was weak. The short - term weakness is expected to continue. The futures were under pressure, and the rebound power was insufficient [34] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly float glass production,开工率, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis (daily), and ending inventory. The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is strongly bearish, the capital inflow is large, and the risk of a market reversal is high [36][39][41][46]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researcher: Feng Zeren (Soda Ash and Glass) [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Soda ash market is in a weak pattern with supply exceeding demand, and the contract shows signs of bottoming out, expected to fluctuate weakly [8] - Glass market is in a weak balance of supply and demand, and the disk may test the bottom again, but excessive short - selling is not advisable, and attention should be paid to potential positive factors from policies and production lines [9] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market** - On October 22, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash fluctuated and rebounded, with a closing price of 1,223 yuan/ton, a rise of 16 yuan/ton, and a daily decline of 924 lots [7] - Fundamentally, supply decreased, inventory increased slightly, and the overall weak pattern remained unchanged. Weekly production decreased by 30,300 tons to 740,500 tons, and enterprise inventory rose to 1.705 million tons [8] - The market supply - demand imbalance has not been effectively improved, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] - **Glass Market** - Fundamentally, the production of float glass remained stable, and the photovoltaic glass was in a weak balance. The overall glass supply was at a high level within the year, and the inventory was at a high level after the festival [9] - The real - estate market has not shown a stabilizing trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise. The disk may test the bottom again, but excessive short - selling is not advisable [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, as well as data on soda ash weekly production, enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [11][17][18] - Data sources include Wind and iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][16][20]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened, with the price under pressure. The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA60 line [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to continue the volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' production situation [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened and the ore price is under pressure [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Steel mills' production is weakening, and the demand for ore is continuously falling. The steel market's industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and the demand is expected to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports and the shipments from miners remain high, overseas ore supply is active, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing the supply pressure. With high - level supply and weakening demand, the iron ore market fundamentals have weakened, and the high - valued ore price is under continued pressure. However, due to the still high rigid demand, there is resistance to the downward movement [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector is showing a predominantly positive trend, particularly for paraxylene (PX) futures, which have experienced fluctuations with a current upward trend in prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for paraxylene opened at 6356.0 yuan/ton and reached a high of 6454.0 yuan during the day, with a low of 6344.0 yuan, resulting in a price increase of 2.06% [1] - The overall market performance for paraxylene is characterized by strong fluctuations and an upward trend [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Minmetals Futures indicates that the current PX load remains high, but the downstream PTA sector is undergoing significant maintenance, leading to a lower overall load. The expectation of new PTA installations is suppressing PTA processing fees, which may hinder PX inventory reduction. The current valuation is neutral, primarily following crude oil fluctuations, with a recommendation to observe the market [1] - Southwest Futures notes a short-term loosening of the PX supply-demand balance, with a relatively firm PXN price spread. However, weak cost support and insufficient demand may lead to a slight downward adjustment in PX prices. Caution is advised regarding crude oil fluctuations and macro policy changes [1] - Zhonghui Futures points out a slight reduction in supply from domestic and international facilities, with recent weak demand but potential for improvement. The PX-MX spread remains high, while the cost side is pressured by declining crude oil and naphtha prices. The strategy suggests taking profits on short positions at low prices and looking for short opportunities at high prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report anticipates the trend of various futures on October 21, 2025. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly; gold and silver futures will oscillate with an upward bias; coking coal futures will oscillate weakly; polysilicon, glass, and soda ash futures will oscillate weakly [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - On October 9, 2025, the total funds in China's futures market exceeded 2 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [11]. - The monthly average price futures of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene on the Dalian Commodity Exchange will be listed for trading starting at 21:00 on October 28, 2025, and will be included in the scope of tradable varieties for qualified overseas investors [11]. Macro News and Trading Tips - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China began in Beijing on the morning of October 20, 2025 [7]. - China and the United States are about to return to the negotiation table. The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues to be raised with China [7]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% [7]. - In September 2025, housing prices in various cities declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow, and the number of cities with year - on - year increases in new housing prices increased [8]. - China's LPR in October 2025 remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, with the 1 - year and 5 - year varieties reported at 3% and 3.5% respectively [8]. - As of October 17, 2025, the new policy - based financial instruments of the China Development Bank had invested 189.35 billion yuan, expected to drive a total project investment of 2.8 trillion yuan; the Export - Import Bank of China had invested 83% of its funds in major economic provinces; the Agricultural Development Bank of China had completed 100.111 billion yuan of the 150 - billion - yuan fund investment, expected to drive a total project investment of over 1.26 trillion yuan [8]. - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to jointly invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next 6 months [9]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On October 20, 2025, the main contracts of index futures such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 all opened slightly higher, then rose, encountered resistance, and fell back, showing a slightly strong oscillation. It is expected that on October 21, they will continue to oscillate strongly. For the whole of October 2025, they are expected to oscillate weakly in a wide range [13][14][15][18]. Treasury Bond Futures - On October 20, 2025, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures opened lower and oscillated downward. It is expected that on October 21, they will oscillate in a wide range [32][36]. Precious Metal Futures - On October 20, 2025, the main contracts of gold and silver futures opened lower and oscillated downward during the day, but showed a strong upward oscillation during the night session. It is expected that in October 2025, they will oscillate with an upward bias and reach new highs; on October 21, they will continue to oscillate with an upward bias [40][48]. Base Metal Futures - On October 20, 2025, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, and other base metal futures showed different trends. It is expected that in October 2025, copper and aluminum will oscillate strongly in a wide range, nickel will oscillate in a wide range, and alumina will oscillate weakly in a wide range. On October 21, copper and nickel will oscillate strongly, aluminum will oscillate and consolidate, and alumina will oscillate weakly [52][57][66][71]. Energy and Chemical Futures - On October 20, 2025, the main contracts of polysilicon, glass, soda ash, and other energy and chemical futures showed different trends. It is expected that in October 2025, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash will oscillate weakly in a wide range, and crude oil will oscillate weakly. On October 21, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash will oscillate weakly, and crude oil will oscillate strongly [71][93][98][103]. Agricultural Product Futures - On October 20, 2025, the main contracts of PTA, methanol, and soybean meal futures showed different trends. It is expected that on October 21, PTA and soybean meal will oscillate strongly, and methanol will oscillate weakly [107][110][112].

Core Viewpoint - The futures market for coking coal has experienced fluctuations, with a recent surge in prices, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics in the industry [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Price Movements - Coking coal futures saw a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1738.0 yuan, with a current price of 1708.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.52% [1] - The market sentiment indicates that coking coal prices may be more likely to rise than fall, supported by expectations of increased production costs due to safety assessments in major coking coal production areas [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply remains stable, with most coal mines operating normally, although some are facing production limitations due to weather conditions [3] - Downstream demand from coking enterprises is stable, with some purchasing to replenish stocks, contributing to a balanced market [3][4] - Despite some steel mills reducing production, the overall demand for coking coal remains high, leading to a tight supply situation [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Various institutions predict that coking coal futures may continue to experience fluctuations in the short term, with potential buying opportunities during price corrections [3] - The market is currently optimistic, with a second round of price increases in the spot market, indicating a positive sentiment among traders [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **General**: The report focuses on the weekly situation of soybean meal and soybean oil futures, including their mid - term trends, trading strategies, and related data [6][31]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures are in a stage of shock consolidation. The high domestic soybean arrival, high inventory, and weak demand suppress price increases, but the policy on port fees may affect the arrival rhythm in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures are in a horizontal shock stage. The abundant global and domestic soybean supply, slow demand recovery, and price fluctuations of competing products lead to market wait - and - see sentiment [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend**: The soybean meal main contract is in a shock consolidation stage. In the 41st week, the oil mill's soybean actual crushing volume was 1.2893 million tons, the startup rate was 35.99%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons. High domestic soybean arrival, high inventory, and weak demand suppress price increases, but the policy on port fees may affect the arrival rhythm in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade progress and South American weather [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Review**: The soybean meal futures price was in a downward channel, and funds were bearish. The M2601 was expected to fluctuate between 2880 - 3050 in the short term [9]. - **This Week's Suggestion**: The soybean meal futures price is in a downward channel, and funds are slightly bearish. The M2601 is expected to continue the shock consolidation pattern, with an expected operating range of 2800 - 3000 [10]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report mentions data such as soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [20][23][26]. Soybean Oil Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend**: The soybean oil main contract is in a horizontal shock stage. In the 41st week, the actual output of 125 oil mills was 245,000 tons, a decrease of 88,600 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory in key national regions was 1.2651 million tons, an increase of 16,400 tons from the previous week. Abundant supply, slow demand recovery, and price fluctuations of competing products lead to market wait - and - see sentiment [31]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends and the progress of Indonesia's B50 policy [31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Review**: The soybean oil futures price was in a horizontal stage, and funds were bullish. The Y2601 was expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [34]. - **This Week's Suggestion**: The soybean oil futures price is in a horizontal stage, and funds are slightly bearish. The Y2601 is expected to be in a range - shock pattern in the short term [34]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report mentions data such as soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly startup rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium [43][49][51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The soda ash futures market is in a weak and volatile stage, and the glass futures market is also showing a weak and volatile trend. The main contradiction in the current soda ash market is the imbalance between supply and demand, and the glass market is also affected by factors such as slow demand recovery and increased supply expectations [6][30] - For soda ash futures, it is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term, and expect the operating range of soda ash 2601 to be 1100 - 1250 this week. For glass futures, it is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [6][30] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The domestic soda ash market was stable to weak last week, with significant price drops in the northwest region. The main contradiction is the imbalance between supply and demand, with continuous supply pressure and weak demand. In the short term, the price may continue to be weakly volatile, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [6] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Soda ash futures were weakly volatile last week. The weekly output was 77.69 tons, the operating rate dropped to 88.41%, and the total inventory increased to 165.98 tons. The overall supply was strong, and the demand was difficult to exceed expectations. It was expected that the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1200 - 1350 [9] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic soda ash market continued the weak trend last week. It is expected that the price will still be weakly volatile in the short term, but the downward space is limited. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1100 - 1250 [10] 3. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include soda ash's operating rate, output, light - weight and heavy - weight inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly data) [11][15][18] Glass Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The glass is in an oscillating trend. The domestic float glass market was generally weak last week. After the festival, the demand recovery was limited, the enterprise inventory pressure remained, and some manufacturers had difficulty in maintaining prices. The glass futures price declined unilaterally. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Float glass futures were oscillating and strengthening since September 28. The weekly output increased to 112.89 tons, the operating rate remained stable, the capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market was supported by policies but the supply - demand contradiction was not resolved. It was expected that the operating range of glass 2601 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [33] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic float glass market was generally weak last week. The demand recovered slowly, the enterprise inventory pressure remained, and the supply increase expectation further suppressed the market. The futures also weakened, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [34] 3. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include float glass's output, operating rate, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory (weekly data) [36][39][41]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for synthetic rubber showed positive performance, with the main contract for synthetic rubber opening at 10,905.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 11,115.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.73% [1] - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic polybutadiene rubber in sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [1] - In the Shanghai market, high-grade polybutadiene rubber prices increased by 50-150 CNY/ton compared to the previous trading day, indicating a more cautious market sentiment among traders [1] Group 2 - The futures warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber remained stable at 8,750 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - Southwest Futures noted that the price of butadiene has decreased, slightly narrowing the processing losses for synthetic rubber, while the weekly capacity utilization rate for high-grade polybutadiene rubber in China was around 74%, which is relatively high year-on-year [2] - According to Greeen DGH Futures, the slight recovery in synthetic rubber prices was supported by a temporary reduction in domestic production due to maintenance, alongside improved downstream demand [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated October 16, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers for different sectors such as Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,570 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.12%. The trading volume was 206,727 lots, and the open interest was 144,190 lots, a net decrease of 18,484 lots [4] Outlook - Spot prices remained stable, basis fluctuations weakened, and capital divergence converged. Supply - side pressure persisted, with the output in the second week of October at 95,700 tons and the monthly output expected to reach 420,000 tons. There was no significant increase in demand, with stable monthly demand for polysilicon, 120,000 tons for organic silicon, and 120,000 tons for exports and alloy demand. The oversupply pressure remained, and there was no de - stocking drive in the market. The policy side entered a vacuum period. Future support was mainly concentrated on production cuts in the southwest and rising electricity prices, and potential policy benefits were yet to be observed. Fundamentally, it was difficult to provide significant drivers, and the price was expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton in the short term [4] 4. Market News - On October 15, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,357 lots, a net decrease of 840 lots compared to the previous trading day. The organic silicon DMC market remained stable, with quotes ranging from 11,100 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers still had some pre - sold orders as support. Currently, the number of overhauling manufacturers was large, and some manufacturers planned to enter overhaul, leading to a reduction in market supply [5]