证券研究报告 | 季度行业策略报告 | 房地产 重申估值筑底凸显配置价值 ——行业点评报告 我们认为有少部分房企 2025 年盈利可能提前迎来改善，这类房企的特点在于 1）前期计提减值充分；2）项目聚焦核心 30 城，资产价格率先回暖；3）开发 业务收缩较快，非开发业务利润打底，稳住公司盈利基本盘。典型案例如华润置 地和新城控股。 投资要点 ❑ 维持 2025 年度策略投资思路 3 月 12 日我们外发报告《25Q2 地产投资策略：估值筑底凸显配置价值》中提到 "25Q2 是地产板块估值磨底阶段"—— 关于如何看待 Q2 利空因素，决定了地 产板块估值的下限问题。我们认为，当一方面跟踪到 5 月销售基本面淡季不淡， 而另一方面房企 2024 年体现出公司利润逐步筑底、利空出尽的时候，这意味着 地产板块的估值或达到了底部，具有反弹的潜力。 根据我们 2022 年的专题报告《鉴以往知未来之房地产周期底部特征研究》，复 盘历次周期地产板块股价和房价的表现，我们可以比较直观的看到，房企估值的 拐点受价格变化影响早于盈利改善，主要是由于房企利润结算受竣工影响有滞 后。资产价格的修复从房企开始取消降价销售策略就已经开始， ...

——券商板块1Q25业绩综述 证券分析师： 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 证 券 研 究 报 告 1Q25业绩同比+83%，高景气度下券商板块盈利能力与估值存在预期差 ◼ 业绩概览： 1Q25，券商板块归母净利润同比增长83%，环比增长19%，经纪及自营表现较好。 ◼ 轻资产业务：经纪零售业务发力，投行再融资同比高增驱动收入同比正增（IPO同比承压）。 • 1Q25经纪、投行、资管业务收入分别yoy+49%、yoy+5%、yoy-3%，我们预计收入结构变化&佣金率下行导致券商板块经纪业务收入同比跑输市场成交；投行 业务IPO同比承压，再融资同比高增支撑收入同比正增；资管业务量增不敌价减，关注参控股公募对券商利润的稳定作用。 ◼ 资本金业务：投资收益率显著改善，融资业务扩表&资金成本压降共同驱动利息净收入增长。 研究支持： 金黎丹 A0230123060002 2025.5.6 核心观点：高景气度下券商板块盈利能力&估值存在预期差 • 投资业务为业绩同比高增关键，主营收入拆分如下（剔除其他手续费及长股投）：1）轻资产业务：经纪业务收入327亿元/yoy+49%/qoq-22%/占比29%；投 行业务收入 ...

"小赛道"迎来大爆发！ 今年以来，港股市场频现"消费牛股"，引发市场关注，事实上，A股市场同样涌现了一批"小赛道"高增 长的个股。4月29日，食品饮料赛道的盐津铺子（002847）、万辰集团（300972），宠物经济赛道的中 宠股份（002891），美容护理赛道的百亚股份（003006）、润本股份（603193）、锦波生物股价均创出 历史新高。 去年四季度以来，不少公募基金产品投向这些高成长新兴消费公司，伴随这些公司股价的持续上涨，给 基金净值带来优异表现，如恒越匠心优选一年持有、申万菱信乐融一年持有、银华品质消费、海富通消 费优选等年内绩优消费主题基金收益回报均超20%。 渠道变革带来消费品公司业绩高增长 近期，去年四季度公募基金纷纷加仓的消费品赛道公司迎来股价持续上涨。 4月29日，食品饮料赛道的盐津铺子、万辰集团，宠物经济赛道的中宠股份，美容护理赛道的百亚股 份、润本股份、锦波生物股价均创出历史新高。 股价增长背后，是这些"小赛道"公司业绩的高增长。以零食品牌"好想来"母公司万辰集团为例，前一 日，万辰集团发布公告称，2025年第一季度，公司营业收入108.21亿元，同比增长124.02%，主要系公 司 ...

"小赛道"迎来大爆发！ 今 年以来，港股市场频现"消费牛股"，引发市场关注，事实上，A股市场同样涌现了一批"小赛道"高增长的个 股。4月29日，食品饮料赛道的盐津铺子、万辰集团，宠物经济赛道的中宠股份，美容护理赛道的百亚股份、 润本股份、锦波生物股价均创出历史新高。 去年四季度以来，不少公募基金产品投向这些高成长新兴消费公司，伴随这些公司股价的持续上涨，给基金净 值带来优异表现，如恒越匠心优选一年持有、申万菱信乐融一年持有、银华品质消费、海富通消费优选等年内 绩优消费主题基金收益回报均超20%。 渠道变革带来消费品公司业绩高增长 近期，去年四季度公募基金纷纷加仓的消费品赛道公司迎来股价持续上涨。 4月29日，食品饮料赛道的盐津铺子、万辰集团，宠物经济赛道的中宠股份，美容护理赛道的百亚股份、润本 股份、锦波生物股价均创出历史新高。 股价增长背后，是这些"小赛道"公司业绩的高增长。以零食品牌"好想来"母公司万辰集团为例，前一日，万辰 集团发布公告称，2025年第一季度，公司营业收入108.21亿元，同比增长124.02%，主要系公司量贩零食业务 持续发展，收入相应增加；归属净利润2.15亿元，同比提升3344.1 ...

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.38%, and a net profit of 2.330 billion yuan, up 12.78% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations due to resilient income [1] Revenue Growth - The company's business in Anhui province continues to be a major contributor to revenue growth, with the annual raw liquor series showing ongoing structural upgrades [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 10.4% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from brands such as Gu 8 and Gu 16, while Gu 5 also performed well [1] - The revenue from the annual raw liquor series in the second half of 2024 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, with a slight slowdown in volume growth but a continuation of structural upgrades [1] Cost Management - The company demonstrated strong cost control capabilities, with a net profit growth of 12.8% in Q1 2025, driven by a reduction in expense ratios [2] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 26.6%, and the management expense ratio fell by 0.5 percentage points to 4.4% [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the 100-300 yuan price range in Anhui province, along with improved banquet demand due to the dual spring year effect [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to overall weak consumption, the company has lowered its 2025 profit forecast by 3% to 6.14 billion yuan and introduced a 2026 profit forecast of 6.77 billion yuan [3] - The target price remains at 226 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5x for 2025 and 17.6x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 35.2% from the current stock price [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming sector has a significant safety margin under the current trading expectations, with potential pressure on pig output in the first half of 2025 due to high levels of new piglets [3][4]. - The report highlights that the supply of pigs is expected to rebound, which will boost demand for feed and animal health products, leading to a valuation recovery in related sectors [3]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the planting chain due to rising grain prices amid US-China tariff tensions, recommending several companies in this space [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The average price of pigs has decreased to 14.95 yuan/kg as of April 25, 2025, with a week-on-week change of -0.13% [35]. - The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025 was 19,476 million heads, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.86% [14]. - The average profit per pig has continued to decline, with large-scale farms reporting a profit of 84 yuan per head in March, down from 131 yuan in February [18]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The number of breeding sows as of the end of March 2025 was 40.39 million heads, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.0% [13]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.94 kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37 kg [35]. - The average price of piglets in March 2025 was 37.24 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 16% [18]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically mentioning Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, while also suggesting attention to Wens Foodstuff Group and Juxing Agriculture [3]. - For the post-cycle sector, the report suggests that the rebound in pig inventory will enhance demand for feed and animal health products, recommending Hai Da Group [3]. - In the planting chain, the report highlights investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Hainan Rubber due to strong grain prices [3].

出栏体重 该行测算，重点猪企三月生猪出栏均重环比约+2.6%。3月，8家重点上市猪企生猪出栏均重约124.9kg/ 头，环比明显增长，达到历史高位。其中，仅正邦科技(-1.0%)、金新农(-0.5%)出栏均重小幅下调，重 点猪企出栏均重基本在120kg以上。该行认为，受标肥价差影响，上市猪企为优化头均盈利水平，普遍 采取增重出栏措施。 销售均价：重点上市猪企三月商品猪销售均价环比小幅上涨 方正证券发布研报称，1、2月企业生产受假期及短月影响整体出栏量有所下降，3月各企业基本恢复正 常生产经营出栏量环比增长明显。此外，该行认为，受标肥价差影响，上市猪企为优化头均盈利水平， 普遍采取增重出栏措施。重点上市猪企三月商品猪销售均价环比小幅上涨。生猪板块在低猪价预期，低 板块预期下估值仍在底部。看好对猪价悲观预期的修正所带来板块股价的估值修复，以及消费提振下的 板块估值修复。 方正证券主要观点如下： 出栏量：3月重点上市猪企整体出栏量环比显著增长 根据上市猪企三月生猪销售简报，13家上市猪企3月共出栏生猪1521.7万头，环比+23.9%。除中粮家佳 康(-9.9%)、天康生物（002100）(-1.2%)环比小幅下降 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][9]. Core Views - The market performance of the Chinese medicine sector showed a slight increase of 0.17% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector rebounded [2][5]. - The report highlights the continuous expansion of grassroots traditional Chinese medicine coverage, which is expected to drive demand growth [3]. - The revival of centralized procurement for traditional Chinese medicine is noted, with eight products entering the proposed selection list [3]. Market Performance - The Chinese medicine sector's PE (ttm) is reported at 25.89X, with a slight increase of 0.05X week-on-week, and the PB (lf) remains stable at 2.24X [7]. - The relative performance of the Chinese medicine sector compared to the CSI 300 index shows a decline of 4% over the past month and 21% over the past year [5]. Investment Suggestions - The report suggests looking for investment opportunities amid price governance and consumption recovery, indicating a dual scenario of pressure and opportunity in 2025 [9]. - Key investment themes include price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform, with a focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and market share [10][11][12].