1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - The Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed sharply lower on Monday, with the benchmark contract down 3.42%, breaking below the recent support level due to speculative long - position liquidation [2]. - The U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate as of June 1, 2025, was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The fast planting progress and good good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans continue to constrain the U.S. soybean market. However, heavy rains in Argentina in mid - to - late May may damage the soybean harvest, which boosts the market [2]. - In the domestic market, since this month, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil mill operating rate has significantly increased, and the supply has become more ample, putting pressure on the meal market prices. For rapeseed meal, after the tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal is increased, the direct import pressure will significantly decline, and the supply is likely to tighten later. But the new import of Indian rapeseed meal and relatively high short - term inventory pressure drag on the rapeseed meal market price [2]. - The short - term market still focuses on the tight inventory of old - crop Canadian rapeseed. The growth of Canadian rapeseed has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. Last week, the weather in the Canadian prairie region was hot, dry, and with little precipitation, raising concerns about drought risks. However, the weather forecast shows that there will be beneficial rainfall in the prairie region this week [2]. - The palm oil producing areas have entered the seasonal production - increasing season, with increased output pressure. However, the improvement in export demand supports the palm oil market. India's reduction of CPO import tariffs may further benefit Malaysian palm oil exports, which boosts the domestic oil market. In the domestic market, the high inventory pressure of oil mills continues to constrain the market price, but the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides cost support for the domestic rapeseed oil market [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9272 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2557 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 686.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 24.9 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5266 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 162 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 244 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil main contract positions were 295183 hands, down 2199 hands; rapeseed meal main contract positions were 552037 hands, down 18839 hands [2]. - Top 20 futures positions: Net long positions of rapeseed oil were 26574 hands, down 3638 hands; net long positions of rapeseed meal were - 27832 hands, down 25527 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 27429, down 162 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8020 yuan/ton, unchanged; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8750 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; oil - meal ratio was 3.64, down 0.06 [2]. - Average price: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9563.75 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5095.95 yuan/ton, down 157.35 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 212 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 23.72%, up 5.86 percentage points; the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 15.04 million tons, down 0.51 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2 million tons, down 0.35 million tons [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 55 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.96%, down 1.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 20.97%, down 1.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.61%, down 0.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.63%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.88%, up 1.93 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 27.09%, up 0.33 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 10.84%, up 0.66 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 15.92%, down 0.17 percentage points [2].

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-06-03投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货7950，基差312，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月23日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲 软。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美关系恶化关税 问题影响市 ...

油脂：市场紧张情绪缓和 油脂小幅回升 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 3、据外媒报道，咨询公司 Datagro 预估巴西 2024/25 年度大豆产量将达到 1.720 亿吨， 此前预测为 1.712 亿吨。预估巴西 2024/25 年度玉米产量为 1.327 亿吨，此前预测为 1.317 亿吨。 4、加拿大油籽加工商协会（COPA）发布的油籽压榨数据显示，2025 年 04 月，加拿大 油菜籽压榨量为 919345.0 吨，环比降 10.27%；菜籽油产量为 390276.0 吨，环比降 10.5%； 数据来源：Wind、金石期货研究所 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、上周我国菜油、棕榈油商业库存下降，豆油增加，三大油脂库存整体下降。5 月 23 日，三大油脂商业库存 185 万吨，周环比下降 1 万吨，月环比上升 8 万吨，同比上升 10 万 吨。其中豆油库存 70 万吨，周环比上升 6 万吨，月环比上升 10 万吨，同比下降 22 万吨； 菜籽油 79 万吨，周环比下降 2 万吨，月环比上升 2 万吨，同比上升 35 万吨；棕榈 ...

主要观点 等待产地月报，内外棕榈油跌势放缓 正信期货棕榈油周报 20250512 分析师：张翠萍 投资咨询证号：Z0016574 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目 录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuw en/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxu e/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall rapeseed market shows complex trends. In the short - term, the supply of rapeseed products is relatively loose, but there is high long - term uncertainty. For rapeseed meal, the direct import pressure has decreased significantly, but the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure suppress the market price. For rapeseed oil, the cost increase supports the price, but high inventory continues to restrict the market price. Short - term trading is recommended for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9378 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2544 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures is 711.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 12.2 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed futures is 5400 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 178 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 232 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 292,927 lots, down 15,753 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 576,482 lots, up 4096 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 25,914 lots, down 9564 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 37,241 lots, up 6117 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 1707, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 31,218, up 1993 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9480 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2460 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9477.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost of rapeseed is 5195.72 yuan/ton, up 61.41 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. - **Price Differences**: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 930 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 30 million tons, unchanged; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed is 42.51%, up 17.06 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 14.05 million tons, up 0.55 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.6 million tons, up 2.15 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 65.54 million tons, up 1.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 45.59 million tons, up 0.92 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 6.8 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 23 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 3.83 million tons, up 0.54 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 5.35 million tons, down 0.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 22.94%, up 0.52 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 22.94%, up 0.43 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.19%, up 0.13 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 16.2%, up 0.16 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.24%, down 1.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 27.24%, down 0.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.68%, down 1.25 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 17.08%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Canadian rapeseed futures on the ICE closed up on Friday, with the benchmark contract up 1.60%. South American bumper harvest is putting pressure on international soybean prices, but the decline in the new - season US soybean planting area may add weather premium expectations. The high - level Sino - US economic and trade talks reached important consensus, boosting the strength of US soybeans. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint - The direct import pressure of rapeseed meal has decreased significantly, and the supply is likely to be tight in the later period. However, the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory are suppressing the market price. The rapeseed meal futures price has been fluctuating narrowly recently, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint - The cost of rapeseed oil has increased due to the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations is beneficial to the oil market, but the palm oil is under pressure due to the seasonal increase in production. The supply - side pressure of rapeseed oil has decreased, and the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil has increased, limiting the later import volume. However, the high inventory continues to restrict the market price. The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated greatly today, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3.10 Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed opening rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from Myagric on Monday, the trends of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report at 0:00 on the 13th [2]

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: This week, the futures prices of edible oils showed a divergent trend. As the palm oil main - producing areas enter the peak production period, the inventory will significantly increase in the coming months, and the palm oil price at the origin is expected to continue to be under pressure. The increasing supply pressure is pushing the palm oil price center of gravity to decline continuously. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for palm oil at the origin is intensifying. The re - allocation of arbitrage funds temporarily eases the weakness of soybean oil and rapeseed oil and promotes the return of the price difference between edible oils to a normal level. With the arrival of the off - season for domestic edible oil demand and the successive arrival of imported soybeans, the factory operating rate will further increase, and the soybean oil inventory will enter the accumulation stage. In addition, factors such as the promotion of biodiesel policies and changes in the international trade situation will also affect the edible oil market. It is highly likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate widely [9][31]. Market Data Summary Spot Analysis - As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the futures main - contract price was 9,372 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton month - on - month. It was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [13]. Other Data - As of May 2, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 711,000 tons. On May 7, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 332,000 tons [17]. - As of May 8, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,207,280 tons [20]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past 5 years [21]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 664 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [22]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 145 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 0.66% to close at 7,780 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 3.22% to close at 7,886 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 0.62% to close at 9,355 yuan/ton [5][30]. - In terms of palm oil, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) showed that from April 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 24.62% month - on - month. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) reported a 17.03% month - on - month increase for the same period, and its data showed a 60.17% month - on - month increase in palm oil production from May 1 - 5. The palm oil production at the origin showed a strong upward trend, and the Malaysian palm oil price fell 1.68% [7][30]. - In terms of soybean oil, as of the week of May 4, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than the market expectation of 31%, compared with 24% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 23%. The U.S. soybean emergence rate was 7%, compared with 8% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 5%. Overall, the start of the U.S. soybean season was normal, and the U.S. soybean price fell 0.57% this week [7][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The decline in US soybean oil inventory supports international oils and fats. The impact of the macro - environment on soybean oil weakens, and it is in a range - bound consolidation phase [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,720 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.32%, and (night session) is 8,148 yuan/ton with a decline of 6.56%. Trading volume decreased by 177,914 to 296,037 lots, and open interest decreased by 22,181 to 134,408 lots [1] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 7,706 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.36%, and (night session) is 7,708 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.03%. Trading volume decreased by 8,033 to 57,797 lots, and open interest decreased by 6,166 to 137,712 lots [1] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,255 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.36%, and (night session) is 9,302 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.51%. Trading volume decreased by 2,198 to 273,054 lots, and open interest decreased by 22,875 to 82,760 lots [1] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price is 4,107 ringgit/ton with a decline of 1.51%, and (night session) is 4,121 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.32% [1] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 47.80 cents/pound with an increase of 2.03% [1] 3.1.2 Spot - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 9,150 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price is 9,230 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: 1,060 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton [1] 3.1.3 Basis - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis is 430 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis is 394 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis is - 25 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Spreads - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: 1,152 yuan/ton, compared with 635 yuan/ton previously [1] - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: - 458 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,050 yuan/ton previously [1] - Palm oil 5 - 9 spread: 586 yuan/ton, compared with 578 yuan/ton previously [1] - Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread: 30 yuan/ton, compared with 36 yuan/ton previously [1] - Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread: - 31 yuan/ton, same as before [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - ITS: Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 were 491,984 tons, a 16.95% increase from the same period last month [2] - AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 were 450,657 tons, a 13.55% increase from the same period last month [2] - Malaysia will keep the crude palm oil export tax at 10% in May and lower the reference price. The May reference price is 4,449.35 ringgit/ton (1,008.47 dollars/ton), compared with 4,547.79 ringgit/ton in April [4] - NOPA: US soybean crushing volume in March increased month - on - month but was lower than market expectations. The daily average crushing volume declined for the third consecutive month. The March soybean crushing volume was 194.551 million bushels, a 9.4% increase from February but a 0.9% decrease from March 2024. The soybean oil inventory at the end of March was 1.498 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease from the end of February and a 19.1% decrease from the same period last year [5] - Anec: Brazil's soybean exports in April are expected to reach 14.5 million tons, higher than last week's forecast. If confirmed, it will be about 1 million tons more than last year but lower than the record in March. Brazil's soybean meal exports in April are expected to reach 2.4 million tons, higher than last week's forecast [6] - IMEA: The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from April 7 - 11 was 655.59 reais/ton, up from 635.63 reais/ton the previous week [6] - Ukraine experienced severe cold snaps and frosts in early April, almost halting the development of grain crops. Rapeseed may be the most affected, with the 2025 harvest possibly at a three - year low, a potential 8% decrease to 3.39 million tons. Rapeseed exports in the 2025/26 season may also decline by 13% to 2.7 million tons [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]