Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Views - The market is experiencing high volatility with significant sector differentiation, particularly with innovative drugs performing strongly while the automotive sector has seen notable declines [1][2] - Overall, the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.4%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.9% [1] - The report highlights that 19 industries within the Hong Kong Stock Connect saw gains, while 11 experienced losses, with the most significant increases in the comprehensive, pharmaceutical, and defense sectors [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,893, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.4% and a year-to-date increase of 19.1% [12] - The small-cap stocks outperformed mid and large-cap stocks, with the Hang Seng Small Cap Index rising by 4.5% [1] Fund Flow - There was a significant outflow of funds from the automotive sector, with an average daily outflow of HKD 17.7 billion, while the pharmaceutical sector saw an inflow of HKD 4.8 billion [2] - The overall average daily fund intensity for Hong Kong Stock Connect components was -8.0 billion HKD, indicating a shift from the previous week’s positive inflow [2] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a substantial upward revision in earnings per share (EPS) expectations, particularly for the automotive sector, which saw a 24.3% increase [3] - In total, 26 industries had their EPS forecasts revised upward, while only 3 experienced downward revisions [3] Sector Performance - The comprehensive sector led with a 19.2% increase, followed by pharmaceuticals at 8.5% and defense at 8.1% [16] - The automotive sector, however, faced a decline of 4.4%, reflecting ongoing challenges within the industry [16]

Real Estate Industry - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, divided into three phases: housing transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3] - The core point for entering a positive cycle is the upward shift in housing price expectations due to changes in supply and demand structure, which should be a key signal for market observation [3] - Policy measures need to be more decisive to facilitate stabilization, focusing on adjusting supply and demand structures and mitigating risks from enterprises [3] - The probability of a "medium policy" scenario for the real estate fundamentals in 2025 is high, with sales performance potentially exceeding expectations due to the prolonged effects of the 926 policy [3] - A recovery in total housing sales to historically reasonable levels could lead to significant upward potential, with new housing transaction volumes likely to see greater recovery [3] Strategy - The A-share market has shown signs of improvement in early 2025, but external uncertainties are rising, impacting market dynamics [8] - The expected market rhythm for the second half of 2025 is "steady first, then rise," with upward potential dependent on comprehensive policy support [9] - Investment focus should be on certainty in uncertain environments, including opportunities from capacity cycles, high-growth sectors with low correlation to economic cycles, and dividend-paying sectors [9] Macroeconomy - The GDP growth rate has improved while prices remain weak, indicating a widening demand gap due to restrained policy measures [18] - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue narrowing, contributing to a "quasi-balance" recovery [18] - The core CPI inflation is anticipated to improve slightly in the second half of the year, but overall inflation is expected to remain weak [18] New Consumption Trends - Despite overall consumption being insufficient, new consumption trends are emerging, characterized by a shift towards quality and rational spending [23] - The Z generation is becoming a key driver of the new consumption wave, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [23] - The potential for consumption in lower-tier cities is increasing as the drag from real estate weakens [23]

Group 1 - The fund company announced a limit on daily subscriptions, conversions, and regular investments for its index fund I class shares to RMB 1 million starting from June 6 [1][3] - Other funds under the company, including the technology and healthcare index funds, also implemented the same limit of RMB 1 million for their I class shares, while A and C class shares remain unrestricted [3][4] - The reason for the limit is to "protect the interests of fund shareholders," preventing sudden large inflows that could disrupt investment strategies and lead to potential arbitrage opportunities [3][4] Group 2 - Industry experts believe that limiting large subscriptions helps to mitigate the impact of institutional funds, which could lead to rapid fund size expansion and affect strategy execution [4] - The recent positive performance of the Hong Kong stock market has attracted more institutional funds for short-term trading, particularly in I class shares designed for institutional investors with lower fees [4]

中金展望2025下半年港股：震荡市中寻结构性机会 金十数据6月10日讯，中金公司认为，上半年，港股市场显著跑赢A股，全球表现居前，展现出韧性。 但问题在于反弹呈现"脉冲式冲高回落"，且上涨高度集中（仅约35%的个股跑赢指数），近期市场再度 显露疲态。下半年，港股市场将面临过剩流动性的"资金盛"和有限回报的"资产荒"的局面。预计整体指 数将维持区间震荡，结构性行情仍是主线。 ...

港股市场策略周报 2025.6.2-2025.6.8 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： l 港股市场宏观环境： l 港股市场展望： 2 n 本周中美关税摩擦继续缓和，结合政策加力的预期，港股市场本周迎来反弹，恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 +2.20%/+2.16%/+2.25%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，原材料业涨幅排在第一，周涨幅超5.5%；医疗 保健业继续保持强势，周涨幅超4.0%，排在第二。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点升至72.3%，估值水平略超5年均值。 n 基本面：央行本周打破惯例，在6月初首次开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作，释放明确宽松信号。 n 资金面：5月美国非农虽较上月走弱，但超市场预期，就业市场仍有韧性，市场对于美联储降息的预期继续承压。 n 基本面：经济复苏的内生动能仍然偏弱，外需承压下内需仍待政策面托举；政策面： 货币政策持续宽松加 ...

Group 1: Important News - Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call with US President Donald Trump [1] - On June 6, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 10,000 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [1] Group 2: Individual Stock News - Jinju Group (02009.HK) won a residential land bid in Haidian District, Beijing for 3.364 billion yuan [2] - Xinhua Pharmaceutical (00719.HK) obtained a drug registration certificate for ethyl ester soft capsules of eicosapentaenoic acid [2] - JINGRUI Holdings (01862.HK) reported a contract sales amount of approximately 387 million yuan for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of 50.76% [2] - Hongyang Real Estate (01996.HK) recorded a cumulative contract sales amount of 2.47 billion yuan for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of 39.77% [2] - Sunac China (01918.HK) achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 16 billion yuan for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of 35.28% [2] - Zhengrong Real Estate (06158.HK) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 1.963 billion yuan for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of 30.64% [2] - Dongfeng Motor Group (00489.HK) reported cumulative automobile sales of 672,800 units for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 17.1% [2] - Heng Rui Medicine (01276.HK) and its subsidiaries received clinical trial approval notices for SHR-A1811 injection, adalimumab injection, and fumaric acid famotidine capsules [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant activity in 2023, particularly in Q2, with many A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, leading to increased investment through ETF products [1][2] - Since April, over 100 ETF products focused on the Hong Kong market have been launched, with nearly 60% of these products experiencing growth in their share sizes, totaling an increase of 184.04 million shares, reaching a total size of 428 billion shares [2][3] - The influx of capital from mainland investors has supported the recovery of the Hong Kong market after significant fluctuations, including a drop of over 13% in the Hang Seng Index in early April [2][3] Group 2 - Specific sectors such as technology and internet-related ETFs have shown notable growth, while healthcare and pharmaceutical-related products have seen a decline in share sizes [3][9] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (159792) has seen a share increase of 64.78 million shares since April, making it the largest product in terms of share size among Hong Kong-focused ETFs [4][5] - Conversely, the Hang Seng Medical ETF has experienced a significant decrease of 97.75 million shares, despite a year-to-date increase of 32% in its price [10][11] Group 3 - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has attracted attention, with the Hong Kong Innovative Pharmaceutical ETF (159217) growing by 24.31 million shares, reflecting a 192% increase [7][9] - Despite the overall growth in certain ETFs, many have faced price declines, with several products tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping over 5% since April [5][10] - The trend of "buying the dip" is evident in technology and internet-related ETFs, while funds have been withdrawing from healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors [3][9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a pullback last week, with major indices declining, including the Hang Seng Index which closed at 23,289.77 points, down 1.32% [1] - The volatility in the Hang Seng Index is expected to remain high due to fluctuating trade conditions, but there is optimism for a potential rise to the range of 24,000 to 26,000 points in the future [1] IPO Market - The IPO market in Hong Kong continues to thrive, with 28 companies successfully listing and raising over 76 billion HKD, a sevenfold increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The number of companies waiting to go public has reached a record high, with over 140 applications submitted this year, marking a nearly 50% increase year-on-year [2] - Deloitte forecasts that around 80 new stocks will be listed in 2025, raising approximately 130 to 150 billion HKD, primarily from the AI and healthcare sectors [2] Trading Activity - The trading activity in the Hong Kong market has been notably high, with an average daily trading volume of 2,427 billion HKD in Q1 2025, a 144% year-on-year increase [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is focusing on three main categories of projects: companies already listed in Asia seeking financing, Chinese companies returning from the US market, and emerging unicorns and innovative enterprises [3] Company Spotlight: Jihong Co., Ltd. - Jihong Co., Ltd. officially listed on the Hong Kong main board on May 27, with a share price of 7.68 HKD, raising approximately 420 million HKD [4] - The company is the fifth A-share company to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year and became the first to be included in the Stock Connect on its listing day [5] - Jihong Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.477 billion CNY in Q1 2025, an 11.6% increase from 1.325 billion CNY in the same period of 2024 [5] Credit Ratings - Major credit rating agencies, including S&P and Moody's, have maintained a stable outlook for Hong Kong, with Moody's upgrading its outlook from negative to stable [6] - The stability of Hong Kong's financial system is reflected in the growth of bank deposits and active capital markets, indicating strong investor confidence [6]

港股收盘，恒生指数涨1.35%，恒生科技指数涨2.46%。港股科技ETF(159751)收盘上涨1.81%，恒生港 股通ETF(159318)收盘上涨1.26%。众安在线大涨30%，小鹏汽车、美团涨超5%，泡泡玛特涨超4%。 无需港股通，A股账户就能T+0买港股>> ...

境内企业赴境外上市迎来更多利好。5月22日，中国证监会首席风险官、发行监管司司长严伯进在国新 办新闻发布会上表示，证监会坚定不移推进高水平对外开放，大力支持科技企业用好境内境外两个资本 市场。5月23日，中国人民银行、国家外汇管理局发布《关于境内企业境外上市资金管理有关问题的通 知（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《通知》），并向社会公开征求意见。 随着系列政策陆续落地，企业赴境外上市的监管环境更加透明、高效、可预期。数据显示，自2023年3 月31日《境内企业境外发行证券和上市管理试行办法》（简称"境外上市备案新规"）施行以来，截至今 年5月26日，已有249家境内企业完成了境外上市备案。科技型企业接近90家，已成为赴境外上市的重要 力量，主要集中在信息技术、新能源、先进制造等领域。 目前，企业赴境外上市的后备队伍仍在扩容中，优质企业资源十分丰富。证监会官网披露数据显示，截 至5月23日，除了保密未公开的企业外，还有168家企业在备案流程中。其中，133家企业的状态为补充 材料中，35家为已接收。 备案节奏加快 境外上市备案新规明确，已在境外提交有效的境外发行上市申请、未获境外监管机构或者境外证券交易 所同意的境内 ...