Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, expecting growth rates of 3% and 3.1% respectively, which is an upward adjustment of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous forecast in April [1] Economic Growth Projections - The upward revision in global economic growth expectations is attributed to better-than-expected international trade, lower average effective tariff levels in the U.S., improved global financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in major economies [1] - The most significant upward adjustment in growth forecasts was for China, with the IMF raising its expected growth rate for this year by 0.8 percentage points compared to the April forecast [1] Factors Influencing China's Growth - The adjustment for China's economic growth is primarily due to stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and significant reductions in U.S.-China tariffs [1] - The IMF also raised its growth forecast for China in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a positive long-term outlook [1] - The strong export performance of China, particularly to regions outside the U.S., has offset the decline in exports to the U.S., contributing to the economic growth [1] - Fiscal policies supporting consumption have also played a role in driving China's economic growth [1] Recommendations for Policy - The IMF suggests that countries should promote clear and transparent trade frameworks to reduce policy-induced uncertainties [1] - Central banks are advised to carefully calibrate monetary policies based on specific national conditions to maintain price and financial stability amid ongoing trade tensions and changing tariffs [1]

IMF：英国经济增长将连续两年快于欧洲其他国家 金十数据7月29日讯，根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据，英国今明两年的经济增速将超过欧洲其 他主要经济体，但在七国集团中仍落后于美国和加拿大。《世界经济展望》显示，IMF上调了全球经济 增长预期，以反映贸易背景的改善和特朗普总统的《大而美法案》带来的财政刺激。英国、欧盟、日本 等多国已与美国达成贸易协议，国际货币基金组织表示，其最新预测中使用的美国实际关税税率为 17.3%，低于4月份的24.4%，而世界其他地区的实际关税税率为3.5%，低于此前的4.1%。 ...

亚行下调韩国今年经济增长预期至0.8% 智通财经7月23日电，据韩国企划财政部7月23日消息，亚洲开发银行当天发布《2025年亚洲经济展望 （7月版）》补充报告，下调韩国今年经济增长预期至0.8%。亚行还将韩国明年经济增长预期下调0.3个 百分点至1.6%，并维持韩国今明两年通胀预期1.9%不变。 ...

张坤有句名言：一个基金经理在从业历史上，至少应该敢于对抗市场两三次。 2025年2季度，或许是他再次"对抗"市场的时候。 当季度，市场上演"V"型反转，各板块差距迅速拉大。从风格指数看，全季度唯有金融股和港股"二枝独秀"，其余宽基和行业指数多数表现平平。 以下文章来源于资本深潜号 ，作者资本深潜号 资本深潜号 . 专注资本背后的硬核故事 同期，张坤管理的四个基金中有三个基金（易方达优质企业、易方达蓝筹、易方达优质精选）出现阶段性落后基准7.5个百分点以上的情况，唯有主投境外的易 方达亚洲精选取得明显收益，并与基准基本"打平"。 这样的关键时刻，张坤会做何应对？ 答案是—— 再次"旗帜鲜明"的坚持己见，并与市场共识"拉开距离"。 当季度，张坤至少从三个层面坚持了自己的看法（根据季报显示）。 在宏观经济层面 ，张坤认为，市场（投资者）将近两年中国经济的情况线性外推，导致长期国债利率维持在与经济潜力不匹配的水平。对此张坤明确表 示："我们并不认同"。 在上市公司业绩层面， 张坤认为，我国人均 GDP 仍然是发展中国家水平，未来只要充分发挥市场经济的力量和个体的主观能动性，叠加科技进步，有望带动 经济增长并反映到优质 ...

Group 1 - Zhang Kun's funds under management reached 55.047 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025, including four funds: E Fund Blue Chip Selection, E Fund Quality Selection, E Fund Quality Enterprises Three-Year Holding, and E Fund Asia Selection [1] - In Q2 2025, significant portfolio changes included new positions in JD Health, increased holdings in SF Holding, Alibaba-W, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yum China, while reducing positions in Tencent Holdings, Yanghe Brewery, and Meituan [1] - The top ten holdings at the end of Q2 included Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, JD Health, SF Holding, and Yum China [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the A-share market saw the CSI 300 Index rise by 1.25%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.26%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.34%, while the Hong Kong market experienced a 4.12% increase in the Hang Seng Index [2] - The real estate sector faced challenges, with new residential sales area and sales value declining by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, and real estate development investment down by 10.7% [2] - CPI showed negative growth for four consecutive months from February to May, indicating downward pressure on prices, while the stock market exhibited significant sector divergence [2] Group 3 - The company does not share the pessimistic outlook on domestic demand and economy, highlighting that per capita GDP still has room for growth compared to developed countries [3] - The company believes that the pessimistic expectations will eventually be broken, with a key indicator being the long-term bond yields aligning with economic growth prospects [3] - The company will continuously assess the competitiveness of its portfolio companies during economic downturns and their potential to strengthen their market position during recoveries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing uncertainty continues to exert pressure on economic growth expectations according to the Bank of England Governor Bailey [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England highlights that persistent uncertainty is a significant factor affecting the outlook for economic growth [1]

Group 1 - President Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU and Mexico, effective August 1, and a 35% tariff on Canadian products [1] - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU will extend the suspension period for countermeasures against US tariffs until early August, emphasizing a preference for negotiation [3] - The UK economy has entered a recession for the second consecutive month, with May GDP declining by 0.1%, slightly better than April's 0.3% decline but still below economists' expectations [4] Group 2 - Brazil's Ministry of Finance raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.4% to 2.5% [5] - Global foreign exchange reserve managers shifted their risk-averse asset allocation from the Japanese yen to the Swiss franc in Q1, selling a record $94.3 billion worth of yen and buying $66.7 billion worth of Swiss francs, increasing the franc's share in global reserves to 0.76% [5] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 279.13 points to 44,371.51, a decline of 0.63%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced declines [6] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.34% to $3,370.30 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 4.74% to $39.08 per ounce [6] Group 4 - Light crude oil futures for August increased by $1.88 to $68.45 per barrel, a rise of 2.82%, while Brent crude for September rose by $1.72 to $70.36 per barrel, up 2.51% [7] - The US dollar index rose by 0.21% to 97.853, with fluctuations in exchange rates against the euro, pound, and yen noted [7]

美国非农数据是全球金融市场中的一个重要经济指标，通常于每个月的首周星期五公布，对市场的影响 深远，尤其是对现货黄金市场来说，非农数据的发布常常引发黄金价格的剧烈波动。因此，了解非农数 据及其与黄金价格之间的关联性，是投资者应对非农行情的必修课。本文中，领峰环球将详细介绍非农 数据的知识点，分析其与黄金价格的关系，并为投资者提供捕捉非农行情的实用建议。 一、非农数据是什么？ 非农数据是美国劳工部每月发布的一项重要经济报告，主要反映了美国境内非农业行业的新增就业人 数。具体来说，它包含了全美就业市场的综合表现，排除了政府部门、农业和自营职业的影响。因此， 非农数据对于衡量美国经济健康状况具有重要的参考价值。 非农数据的核心内容包括： 1.新增就业人数：指的是一个月内新增的非农业就业岗位数量。 理解非农数据与黄金价格之间的关系后，投资者可以通过以下几种方式把握非农期间的黄金交易机会。 2.失业率：反映劳动力市场中失业人口的比例。 3.平均小时工资：衡量劳动力市场中工资变化的趋势。 这些数据不仅反映了美国经济的就业情况，还能够揭示出潜在的经济增长动能，对金融市场具有重大影 响。投资者登录领峰环球官网、领峰环球官方AP ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced two significant adjustment phases in the past six months, driven by discrepancies in monetary policy expectations and fundamental outlooks [2] - The first adjustment occurred from February to March, where the anticipated "double reduction" policy did not materialize, leading to a tightening of the funding environment and a subsequent decline in bond prices [2] - The second adjustment was triggered in early April by unexpected increases in U.S. tariffs, raising concerns about the economic fundamentals and leading to a rapid strengthening of the bond market [2] Group 2 - Future variables that could disrupt the current market oscillation include a potential slowdown in economic growth, which may lead to a temporary strengthening of bonds [3] - If the market doubts the sustainability of short-term positive economic data, it could impact corporate capital expenditure and consumer confidence, potentially leading to a correction in economic growth expectations and a subsequent bond market rally [3] - A more proactive signal from the central bank could guide funding prices lower, which may lead to a decrease in short-term yields and open up space for long-term price increases [4] Group 3 - The resilience shown in the domestic economy during the first half of the year may lower policy expectations for the second half, and if fiscal and real estate policies exceed expectations, it could lead to an upward revision of fundamental outlooks [4] - The bond market is currently in a low interest rate and low spread environment, with institutional funds likely to engage in ongoing debates regarding the pace and intensity of easing measures [4] - In this oscillating market, flexibility in duration management and careful selection of investment products will be essential to enhance returns through periodic trading [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst Vickie Chang's report analyzes four scenarios in which the Federal Reserve may implement monetary easing earlier than expected, highlighting that a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar will be the main trends across all scenarios [1][2]. Scenario Summaries Scenario 1: Downward Inflation Risk Drives Rate Cuts - If inflation data continues to exceed expectations or if the Fed believes the impact of tariffs is temporary, the market will lower the 2-year Treasury yield by 25 basis points [4]. - Market reactions include rising stock prices, declining bond yields, a steeper yield curve, and a broadly weaker dollar [5][6]. Scenario 2: Declining Growth Expectations Drive Rate Cuts - A 50 basis point downward adjustment in U.S. economic growth expectations will fully drive the rate cut [7]. - This scenario may occur due to further deterioration in labor market and economic activity data, especially if the market doubts the limited damage from tariffs [8]. - In this case, both stock prices and bond yields will decline, with a slightly weaker dollar overall [9][10]. Scenario 3: Dovish Policy + Downward Growth Expectations - This scenario combines dovish policy impacts with negative growth shocks, pricing in both Fed easing and downward growth expectations [11][12]. - The U.S. stock market will see slight declines, with bond yields dropping more than in the previous scenarios, a steeper yield curve, and a broadly weaker dollar [13]. Scenario 4: Dovish Policy + Upward Growth Expectations - In this scenario, the market prices in Fed easing while also raising U.S. economic growth expectations by 50 basis points [14]. - Risk assets perform strongly, with significant stock market gains, slight declines in bond yields, and a moderately weaker dollar, particularly against cyclical currencies [15]. Consistent Trends Across Scenarios - Across all scenarios, a decline in yields, a weaker dollar, and an increase in gold prices are consistent trends [16]. - The direction of the stock market is highly dependent on accurate assessments of growth expectations, as is the strength of risk currencies against the dollar [16][17]. Market Pricing and Future Outlook - The market has begun to price in Fed easing, and if data supports this, the trend may continue [18]. - Current market pricing for growth is slightly above the one-year forecast, but there is still potential for upward movement if the focus shifts to 2026 growth outlooks [18]. - If growth conditions remain stable, a dovish shift from the Fed could benefit risk assets, although current growth expectations appear relatively full compared to April [19].