Core Viewpoint - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has downgraded Cambodia's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 6.1% to 4.9% and for 2026 from 6.2% to 5.0% due to tensions at the Cambodia-Thailand border and uncertainties regarding exports to the United States [1] Economic Growth Projections - ADB expects Cambodia's economy to maintain robust growth by 2026, supported by strong industrial activity and stable foreign direct investment [1] - The Cambodian economy showed resilience in the first half of 2025, aided by lower-than-expected food price increases and declining fuel costs, which helped ease inflation [1] Inflation and Industrial Growth - Cambodia's inflation rate significantly decreased from 6.0% in January to 1.6% in June this year, with an average inflation rate forecast of 2.0% for 2025 and 2026 [1] - The industrial sector is projected to be the main engine of economic growth, with expected growth rates of 7.9% in 2025 and a rebound to 8.3% in 2026 [1] Service and Tourism Sector Outlook - ADB predicts a slowdown in the service sector growth to 2.8% in 2025 and further to 2.6% in 2026, impacted by the ongoing tensions at the Cambodia-Thailand border [2] - The tourism sector has been recovering due to an increase in visitors from China, but the border tensions are expected to suppress tourism development and broader service sector activities in the latter half of the year [2] Agricultural Sector Forecast - The agricultural sector is expected to grow by 1.1% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by sustained export demand and the return of agricultural labor from Thailand in the second half of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Israeli central bank has decided to maintain the interest rate at 4.5% due to high political uncertainty, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict with Hamas and growing international isolation concerns [1] Economic Growth Projections - The central bank warns that economic growth will slow this year due to the intensifying conflict in Gaza and deteriorating international sentiment towards Israel [1] - The bank has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.5%, from a previous estimate of 3.3% made in July [1] - However, the growth forecast for 2026 has been slightly increased from 4.6% to 4.7%, contingent on the continuation of the Gaza conflict at varying intensities, with an expectation for it to conclude by the first quarter of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Central Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.1% to 2%, with a further slowdown expected in 2026 to 1.5% due to various external factors [1] Economic Growth - The report indicates that despite strong performance in agriculture and mining in the second half of the year, uncertainties related to U.S. tariff policies and escalating global geopolitical tensions will negatively impact Brazil's economic growth in 2025 [1] - The expected economic growth for Brazil in 2026 is projected to slow down significantly due to multiple influencing factors [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Brazilian inflation remains above the target level, with the Central Bank forecasting a 2025 inflation rate of 4.8%, exceeding the target median of 3% and the allowable fluctuation range of 1.5 percentage points [1] - The Central Bank has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 15%, indicating that high rates will need to be sustained for a "considerable period" to combat inflation [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Central Bank may not lower interest rates until 2026 [1]

Economic Growth Outlook - Chilean banks have a conservative outlook for economic growth in 2026, predicting GDP growth rates between 2% and 2.5% [1] - The main challenge for 2026 is the recovery of employment, with high informal employment rates and significant disparities in participation among specific groups [1] Industrial Performance - The president of the Chilean Manufacturing Association (SOFOFA) believes industrial performance in 2026 may be uneven due to a lack of clear rules, legal certainty, and investment incentives [1] - The construction industry is expected to recover, but the real estate sector lags behind infrastructure projects driven by large private mining and energy initiatives [1] Employment and Unemployment - The president of the Chilean Banking and Financial Institutions Association (ABIF) forecasts an unemployment rate of 8.7% for 2026, with bank performance similar to 2025 [1] - Total bank loans are expected to grow only by 2%-3%, constrained by low investment and a weak labor market affecting consumer loans [1] Retail and Wholesale Trade - The president of the National Chamber of Commerce, Services, and Tourism (CNC) anticipates retail sales growth of 4.5% to 5.5% in 2025, with limited expansion in 2026 [1] - Wholesale trade may benefit from investment dynamics and inventory replenishment, while retail growth could slow down [1] Mining Sector - The president of the National Mining Association (SONAMI) expects copper production to stagnate at around 5.4 million tons per year, with economic contributions from operational continuity rather than physical expansion [1] - Challenges include declining ore grades, increased mining depth, capacity limitations, and regulatory delays [1] Agricultural Sector - The president of the National Agricultural Association (SNA) notes that agricultural growth has been 3.5 times that of the overall economy in the past two years [1] - Cherry production will remain crucial for the 2025-2026 season, with challenges in optimizing irrigation infrastructure and improving rural security [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic growth forecasts for Vietnam have been downgraded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Standard Chartered Bank, citing short-term trade slowdown due to potential new tariffs from the US, while maintaining a stable long-term outlook due to strong foreign investment and global supply chain positioning [1] Group 1: Economic Forecasts - ADB has revised Vietnam's 2025 economic growth forecast from 6.6% to 6.3% and 2026 from 6.5% to 6.0% [1] - Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its forecast for 2025 from 6.7% to 6.1% [1] - UOB has increased its 2025 growth forecast from 6.0% to 6.9%, suggesting that the most tense period of US-Vietnam trade has passed [1] Group 2: Trade and Investment Insights - Short-term trade prospects for Vietnam are showing signs of slowing, with potential US tariffs likely to suppress export demand for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 [1] - Long-term economic resilience is expected due to strong foreign investment inflows and a solidified position in the global supply chain [1] - Recommendations include accelerating public investment, particularly in key infrastructure projects, to generate spillover effects, enhance productivity, and attract more foreign capital [1] Group 3: GDP Growth Projections - ADB and Standard Chartered's forecasts indicate a cautious outlook for GDP growth in the near term [1] - UOB estimates Vietnam's GDP growth rate for Q3 and Q4 this year to be around 6.4%, with an annual GDP growth rate potentially reaching 6.9% [1]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, with indications of two more rate cuts expected this year [1] - The decision was not unanimous, with dissent from newly appointed Fed Governor Steven Myron, who preferred a 50 basis point cut [2] - The Fed's economic outlook has improved, projecting GDP growth of 1.6% this year and 1.8% next year, while inflation is expected to remain at 3.1% this year and decrease to 2.6% next year [3][4] Rate Projections - Nine Fed officials anticipate three rate cuts this year, while six expect only one cut, and one official, presumably Myron, predicts six cuts [2] - For next year, the median expectation is for just one additional rate cut [3] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.5% this year, with a slight decrease to 4.4% next year, reflecting concerns about labor market weakness [4] - Fed officials acknowledged a slowdown in job gains and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a shift from previous assessments of a solid job market [4][5] Economic Conditions - The Fed is concerned about the softening labor market and its impact on consumer spending, with mixed signals regarding economic activity [7][8] - There are conflicting signals in retail sales, with nominal growth suggesting strong consumer spending, but volume declines in certain sectors indicate underlying weaknesses [16][17] Future Considerations - The Fed's approach to rate cuts is characterized by a careful assessment of incoming data and evolving economic conditions, particularly regarding labor market risks [5][26] - The potential for tax refunds and corporate incentives next year could boost consumption and growth, despite current inflationary pressures [12][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global stock markets may continue to rise due to improved economic growth expectations, with bullish sentiment dominating [1] - A net 28% of global fund managers are overweight in stocks, marking the highest level in seven months [1] - There has been a significant improvement in economic growth outlook, with only a net 16% of investors expecting economic weakness [1] Group 2 - The risks of a "recessionary trade war" are diminishing, leading to a predominance of bullish sentiment [1] - Stock market exposure has not reached extreme levels, which is favorable for sustaining upward momentum [1] - Renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is driving gains in technology giants, contributing to the MSCI global index reaching an all-time high [1] Group 3 - Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in a timely manner to prevent an economic downturn [1]

Group 1 - The French central bank predicts a GDP growth rate of 0.7% for this year, slightly up from the previous forecast of 0.6%, but lowers the growth expectations for the next two years to 0.9% and 1.1% from 1% and 1.2% respectively [1][2] - Political instability in France, including the resignation of former Prime Minister François Baroin due to a failed budget vote, is causing uncertainty that is suppressing investment and consumption [2][3] - France's public debt is approximately €3.3 trillion, accounting for 113.9% of GDP, with projections indicating it could rise to nearly 120% of GDP by 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts and credit rating agencies are increasingly concerned about France's economic outlook, with the central bank noting that the risks to growth expectations are skewed to the downside [3][4] - Fitch downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+ due to political chaos and doubts about fiscal consolidation capabilities, which could raise future financing costs for the government [3][4] - Standard & Poor's has placed France's rating outlook on "negative," indicating potential further downgrades if budget deficits do not improve significantly [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Chile has revised its economic growth and inflation forecasts, indicating a more challenging economic environment than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Projections - The upper limit of the economic growth forecast for 2025 has been raised to 2.25%-2.75% [1] - Internal demand expectations have been increased from 3.2% to 4.3% [1] - Investment projections have been adjusted from 3.7% to 5.5%, driven by large projects, favorable financial conditions, and business confidence [1] - Consumption expectations have been raised from 2.6% to 3% [1] - Personal consumption forecasts have been increased from 2.2% to 2.7% [1] Inflation Expectations - The inflation forecast for the end of 2025 has been raised to 4% [1] - The timeline for inflation to reach the target of 3% has been pushed back from the first half of 2026 to the third quarter of 2026 [1] - The delay in reaching the inflation target is attributed to higher-than-expected core inflation, strong private spending, high wage pressures, and a local currency weaker than depreciation expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's financial market has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.16%, a decrease from the previous prediction of 2.19% made just a week earlier [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The financial market anticipates Brazil's economic growth to be 1.85% in 2026 and 1.88% in 2027 [1] Inflation Expectations - The Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which is Brazil's official inflation indicator, remains unchanged at a forecast of 4.85%, ending a streak of 14 consecutive weeks of declining predictions [1]