经济衰退

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史诗级利好来袭!发令枪响,A股即将狂暴上涨!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 02:37
Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut cycle, potentially lowering the policy rate by 25-50 basis points [1][8] - Current inflation levels are manageable, with August CPI at 2.9%, and are not expected to hinder the Fed's shift towards easing [2] - Rising recession risks, evidenced by a slowdown in the job market and declining consumer confidence, make preemptive rate cuts likely [5][7] Group 2: Impact on A-Share Market - The anticipated Fed rate cut is expected to significantly boost global capital markets, particularly benefiting the A-share market [9] - A potential influx of foreign capital into the A-share market is anticipated, as historical data shows net inflows during Fed rate cut cycles [9] - The Chinese central bank may gain more operational space for policy adjustments following the Fed's rate cut, potentially leading to additional stimulus measures [10] Group 3: Economic and Market Fundamentals - The Fed's rate cut is likely to enhance external demand for the Chinese economy, positively impacting exports and overall economic growth [13] - A combination of improved funding conditions, policy easing, and a recovering economic backdrop is expected to support a long-term upward trend in the A-share market [16] - Specific sectors such as metals, brokerage firms, and technology are highlighted as having high elasticity and potential for significant gains in a favorable liquidity environment [16]
华尔街分析员:美联储或将开启恐慌性降息周期,全球将陷入“非常深度的衰退”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 01:12
美国华尔街资深分析员、宏观另类投资公司Phinance Technologies创办合伙人Ed Dowd表示,特朗普当 选总统后继承了一个烂摊子,美国经济正面临被外界低估的严峻挑战。他警告称,美联储本周预料即将 开始的降息行动,或将演变为"恐慌性降息周期",类似2007年金融危机爆发时的情形,但降息难以阻止 资产价值缩水。 Dowd认为,美国劳工统计局(BLS)上周公布的年度非农就业修正数据,暴露前总统拜 登政府时期经济数据的严重问题,他形容特朗普现在必须应对的是一场灾难。Dowd相信,美国 房地产 市场已经开始走弱,通胀预期下行,美联储的降息措施恐难以逆转这个趋势。他预测,全球将陷入"非 常深度的衰退",建议投资者考虑 黄金和土地等避险资产。 另外,摩根士丹利、摩根大通和奥本海默资 产管理公司的策略员警告称,随着投资者将注意力转向潜在的经济放缓,更谨慎的基调可能会取代目前 的乐观情绪。这些策略员表示,在美联储本周预期中的减息之后,美国股市连创新高的上涨行情面临暂 时熄火的风险。 ...
美联储决议前瞻:重启降息箭在弦上
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-09-16 00:21
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart the interest rate cut process due to alarming signals from the U.S. job market, with significant attention on future easing paths amid internal pressures and the unclear impact of Trump's trade policies [2][3]. Economic Outlook Changes - Since August, both inflation and employment have been under pressure, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.9% year-on-year in August, the highest increase since January, and core CPI at 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - Initial jobless claims reached their highest level since 2021, indicating delays in job placements, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% [3]. - The IMF noted signs of pressure on the U.S. economy, including slowing domestic demand and decelerating job growth, with potential inflation risks stemming from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [3][4]. Policy Outlook - The FOMC is expected to reassess its economic and federal funds rate outlook, with Wall Street anticipating a slight downward adjustment in the 2025 economic growth forecast and a stable inflation prediction [4]. - Wells Fargo predicts a reduction in the median interest rate forecast for 2025 from a 50 basis point cut to a 75 basis point cut, with a further reduction for 2026 [5]. - The updated "dot plot" will help determine whether the FOMC members favor "quarterly cuts" or "continuous cuts," with a terminal policy rate expected to be between 3.00%-3.25% by the end of 2026 [5]. Interest Rate Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [6]. - There are indications of potential dissent within the Fed, with some members concerned about rising inflation while others focus on preventing a possible recession [6]. - The futures market shows an 80% probability of a rate cut in October, with expectations for cuts in September, October, and December [6][7]. Future Rate Cut Signals - Analysts suggest that Powell may signal three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December to mitigate risks in the job market [7]. - However, there remains uncertainty regarding future policy directions, which will depend on upcoming inflation and employment data [7].
华尔街老兵:美国经济挑战可能被低估,美联储或将开启"恐慌性降息周期"
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-15 20:25
华尔街资深分析师、全球宏观另类投资公司 Phinance Technologies 的创始合伙人Ed Dowd近日表示,特 朗普当选总统后"继承了一个烂摊子",美国经济正面临被外界低估的严峻挑战。他警告,美联储即将开 始的降息或将演变为"恐慌降息周期",类似2007年金融危机爆发时的情形,但降息难以阻止资产价值缩 水。 Dowd认为,美国劳工统计局(BLS)上周公布的年度就业修正数据暴露了拜登政府时期经济数据的严 重问题,他形容特朗普现在必须应对的是"一场灾难"。 Dowd还认为,美国房地产市场已开始走弱,通胀预期下行,而美联储的降息措施恐难以逆转这一趋 势。Dowd预测全球将陷入"非常深度的衰退",建议投资者考虑黄金和土地等避险资产。 就业数据修正暴露经济"统计欺诈" 上周二BLS公布,截至今年3月的12个月内,美国的非农就业人数超预期大幅下修91.1万,相当于每月 平均少增加近7.6万。这是自2000年以来的最大下修。Dowd对如此大幅下修就业数据提出严厉批评,称 这种偏差具有欺诈性质。他说 "这可能是统计欺诈,也可能是官僚无能,或者两者兼有。这种偏差高达离谱的7个标准差。 3.4个标准差就相当于人一生中 ...
国泰海通 · 晨报0916|宏观
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-15 13:43
Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of potential recession, with a significant increase in the proportion of the population considering job availability as difficult [2][5] - The current unemployment rate is rising at a historically slow pace, indicating a rare transition in the labor market from supply constraints to demand constraints [3] - A fragile balance in labor supply and demand is maintained due to simultaneous reductions in labor supply from immigration policies and retirement trends, but this balance is expected to be disrupted soon [4][7] Group 2: Employment Trends - The average monthly job creation needed to maintain the current unemployment rate is estimated to be between 150,000 and 180,000, while the recent average has dropped to 120,000 [5] - The labor market is sensitive to changes in employment demand, with a risk of rapid unemployment rate increases if demand continues to decline [7] - The impact of immigration on labor supply is diminishing, and the trend of early retirements is expected to decrease as the peak retirement year of 2025 approaches [7] Group 3: Agricultural Sector - Attention is drawn to the seed and livestock sectors as significant activities in the agricultural industry during the autumn season [8] Group 4: Research and Reports - Various industry reports and discussions are scheduled, including topics on transportation, home appliances, consumer structure changes, real estate cycles, and textiles [9][11]
金价三创新高,超级央行周美日英利率决议受瞩目
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 23:59
上周国际油价上涨 原油期货方面,上周,以色列在卡塔尔首都多哈发动针对哈马斯的突袭,以及俄罗斯无人机进入波兰领 空等事件,一度引发市场对中东和东欧潜在供应风险的担忧,助推国际油价上涨。上周,纽约油价累计 上涨1.33%,布伦特油价上涨2.27%。 来源:央视财经 【#金价一周三个交易日创历史新高#,#超级央行周来了#】上周,意外低于预期的美国8月通胀数据以 及持续疲软的就业数据,巩固了市场对于美联储即将开启降息的预期,叠加芯片股和AI概念股显著上 涨,推动美国三大股指上周集体上涨。其中,道指累计上涨0.95%,标普500指数上涨1.59%,纳指上涨 2.03%。 本周,全球金融市场迎来"超级央行周"。从周三开始,美联储以及英国、日本、加拿大等多个主要经济 体央行将陆续公布最新利率决议,各国货币政策方向呈现分化态势。 最受市场关注的无疑是美联储利率决议。近期,美国劳动力市场的疲软迹象以及通胀反弹的趋势,给美 联储开启新一轮降息铺平道路。市场人士认为,美联储在当地时间本周三的会议上宣布降息25个基点将 会是大概率事件。而投资者更为关注的是,美联储将在本次会议上发布的美国经济展望中,如何描述美 国经济现状和通胀前景。 ...
全球媒体聚焦 | 英媒:美国经济接近“滞胀”关税将致贫困人口增加
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 09:29
近日,英国《卫报》网站刊发文章指出,当下的美国经济正呈现一种奇怪的态势:物价上涨,就业增长停滞,不 确定性无处不在,而股市却飙升至历史新高。 这让"滞胀"这个美国人记忆当中的可怕词汇再度被提及。 英国《卫报》网站截图 "滞胀"是指经济增长"停滞"与物价"通胀"并存。这意味着企业正在减少生产和招聘,但价格却持续攀升。 一些经济学家认为,经济"滞胀"可能比"衰退"更糟。美国上一次经历长期滞胀是在20世纪70年代的石油危机期 间。当时油价上涨导致通胀上升,消费者削减支出又使得失业率上升。目前,美国经济虽未出现滞胀,但正逐渐 接近。 英国《卫报》网站截图 美国劳动力市场走软 通胀率走高 文章分析,今年春季特朗普宣布加征关税后,官方数据最初显示美国经济未受明显影响,新增就业岗位稳定增 加,通胀率降至2021年以来的最低水平。 与此同时,美国通胀率自4月开始回升,8月达到2.9%,为今年1月份以来的最高涨幅。 英国《卫报》网站截图 在哥伦比亚商学院经济学家布雷特·豪斯看来,今年1月,市场对未来一年经济衰退的预期处于3年来的最低水平, 同时预计通胀率将持续下降。但随后白宫经济政策的变化颠覆了这两种预期,市场对今年经济增长的 ...
共和党,不会搞经济!经济学家预警:特朗普政府正将美国推向滞涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 23:03
Economic Outlook - Weak economic data raises concerns among analysts about the potential for the U.S. economy to slide into stagflation or even recession, with consumer confidence declining for two consecutive months, job creation falling significantly short of expectations, and inflation levels continuing to rise [1][12] - The current economic situation is reminiscent of the stagflation crisis that plagued the Western world in the 1970s and 1980s, indicating a re-emergence of this long-dormant risk [3] Stagflation Definition - Stagflation is defined as a unique economic phenomenon where production stagnation coexists with inflation, leading to rising unemployment, sluggish corporate production, and soaring prices, creating a dilemma for macroeconomic policy [4] Labor Market and Inflation - Recent data shows a sharp decline in hiring activities in August, with the labor market remaining weak, while inflation has reached its highest point since January, slightly below the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4] - Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year remain high at 4.8%, significantly above the current actual rate of 2.9%, indicating a potential self-fulfilling prophecy that could further elevate actual inflation [4] Political Economic Policies - The economic governance model of the Republican Party, particularly during the Trump administration, is criticized for its large-scale tariff policies that have led to increased prices for imported goods, exacerbating inflationary pressures [6] - In contrast, the Democratic Party traditionally emphasizes balanced economic policies, with historical data showing that GDP growth rates under Democratic presidents have been higher than those under Republican presidents since 1945 [8] Long-term Economic Strategies - The Biden administration's infrastructure investment plan aims to inject $1.2 trillion over the next decade to modernize infrastructure, which is expected to create numerous jobs and enhance long-term economic growth potential [8] - Democratic policies focus on structural reforms and long-term investments rather than short-term stimulus, promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth [11] Inflation Control Measures - The Democratic approach to controlling inflation includes a multi-faceted strategy, such as releasing strategic oil reserves to stabilize energy prices and implementing the Inflation Reduction Act to lower prescription drug and healthcare costs [9] - The Republican reliance on monetary tools like interest rate hikes is seen as a one-size-fits-all approach that risks leading to economic hard landings [9] Consumer Confidence and Economic Risks - The current economic landscape is precarious, with consumer spending accounting for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and declining consumer confidence, a weak job market, and rising inflation signals warrant close attention [12] - If policymakers fail to adjust economic strategies effectively, the U.S. economy may indeed face the unsettling prospect of returning to a stagflation era, impacting living costs, job opportunities, and real income for ordinary Americans [13][15]
91万就业岗位蒸发 美联储下周豪赌50基点降息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 16:17
一场关乎全球市场的超级"靴子"即将落下。 在多项疲软经济数据"助攻"下,美联储在下周四(9月18日凌晨)降息已"板上钉钉",然而,市场上围绕降息幅度的"鹰鸽之争"已然白热化——究竟是稳妥 地下调25个基点,还是冒着"吓坏市场"风险的下调50个基点? 这背后,不仅有经济数据的考虑,也是美联储主席鲍威尔在独立性与政治压力之间的"背水一战"。 国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛向《每日经济新闻》记者(以下简称每经记者)分析称,美联储将有很大概率降息50个基点。"如果是50个基点的降息,毫无 疑问是出于政治因素的考量:鲍威尔需要考量的不仅仅是美联储的独立性,他也需要思考自己会不会被特朗普'清算'。" 纽约州立大学布法罗分校政治学系助理教授科林•安德森(Collin Anderson)向每经记者表示,此次降息更像是一次预防性降息,而非宽松周期的开始。目前 通胀率仍高于2%的传统目标,人工智能热潮已透出泡沫迹象。在这样的背景下,降息可能会引发通胀上升,甚至更糟的滞胀。 而历史数据显示,自1987年以来,美联储每次以下调50个基点开启降息周期之后,美国都发生了经济衰退。 就业数据"注水"为大幅降息铺路?有投行大胆押注降息50基点 ...
黄金暴涨背后的全球焦虑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 14:57
Core Insights - Recent surge in gold prices, breaking through $3,650 per ounce, reflects global economic uncertainty and transformation [1][3] - The primary driver for rising gold prices is the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls grew by only 22,000 in August, with rising unemployment rates, leading to a 100% market expectation for a rate cut in September [3] - Historical trends indicate that Fed rate cuts typically weaken the dollar, while strengthening gold [3] Geopolitical Factors - Escalating geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine situation, have heightened global risk aversion, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset [3][5] - Central banks globally are increasing gold purchases, with China's central bank adding gold for 10 consecutive months and a total of 166 tons bought in Q2 [3][5] Market Dynamics - U.S. national debt surpassing $37 trillion and government interventions affecting the Fed's independence are eroding trust in the dollar [5] - Gold ETFs saw a 23% increase in holdings, while retail demand for gold bars surged, and jewelry sales rose by 45% [5] Future Projections - Wall Street firms have differing predictions for gold prices, with Goldman Sachs forecasting $3,700 by the end of 2025, potentially reaching $4,000-$5,000 in a recession scenario [5] - UBS also sees a target of $3,700, with geopolitical tensions possibly pushing prices above $4,000, while Bank of America predicts an aggressive target of $4,000 [5] Investor Sentiment - The current enthusiasm in the gold market reflects widespread concerns about the global economic outlook, with various market participants, from central banks to retail investors, expressing uncertainty through gold purchases [5]