2025 年 06 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：反弹震荡，规避 USDA 报告风险 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 周五，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘上涨，主要受到空头回补和美元走弱的支持。交易商调整 仓位，他们的注意力转向下周一美国农业部公布的种植面积、季度库存和作物进展周报。一位分析师称， 大豆市场经过大幅抛售后涌现了一些空头回补。本周大豆市场已经消化了相当一部分的利空情绪。由于投 资者预计美国今年可能进一步降息，美元进一步走弱，也支撑了大宗商品市场。美国农业部发布的单日出 口销售报告显示，私人出口商报告向墨西哥销售 119,746 吨大豆，在 2025/26 年度交货。然而，美国和 全球供应前景良好仍然抑制了价格。气象预报显示，未来几天美国中西部天气温暖多雨，有助于大豆作物 生长。（汇易网） | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. Trump's plan to arrange a shadow chairman before Powell's term ends to promote rapid interest rate cuts, along with the negative final Q1 GDP growth and decreased May personal consumption in the US, increased the market's bearish sentiment towards the US dollar. Rising interest rate cut expectations and the weak US dollar boosted copper prices. Fundamentally, the global copper concentrate supply shortage was more severe than expected, LME visible inventories declined continuously, the LME0 - 3 BACK structure was crowded, and domestic social inventories were low. The tightened global refined copper balance provided a solid bottom and upward support for copper prices in the medium term [2]. - Overall, the intensified stagflation risk in the US, the weakening US dollar, and the slightly rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year provided a good basis for copper prices to rise in the short term. The calming of the Middle - East situation increased the capital market's risk appetite for bulk assets. The US's desire to revitalize the manufacturing industry elevated copper to a strategic asset. Fundamentally, the overseas concentrate shortage persisted, the long - term TC benchmark price for the second half of the year between Antofagasta and some Chinese smelters dropped to $0, global visible inventories were at a low level and declining, there was a certain risk of a short squeeze in LME0 - 3, and the global refined copper balance might turn slightly short in the second half of the year. It is expected that copper prices will enter an upward - fluctuating channel and gradually open up upward space in the short term [3][10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From June 20th to June 27th, LME copper rose from $9,660.50/ton to $9,879.00/ton, a 2.26% increase; COMEX copper rose from 483.4 cents/pound to 512.5 cents/pound, a 6.02% increase; SHFE copper rose from 77,990 yuan/ton to 79,920 yuan/ton, a 2.47% increase; international copper rose from 69,170 yuan/ton to 71,250 yuan/ton, a 3.01% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly from 8.07 to 8.09, the LME spot premium dropped from $274.99/ton to $240.67/ton, a 12.48% decrease, and the Shanghai spot premium dropped from 120 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of June 27th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 445,288 tons, a 3.49% decrease from June 20th. LME inventory decreased by 7,925 tons to 91,275 tons, a 7.99% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 8,084 short tons to 209,281 short tons, a 4.02% increase; SHFE inventory decreased by 19,264 tons to 81,532 tons, a 19.11% decrease; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 63,200 tons, a 4.98% increase [7] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Movement**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The weakening US dollar and the tightened global refined copper balance supported copper prices. As of June 27th, the total global inventory decreased, and the decline in the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the weakening US dollar [8]. - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's criticism of Powell and the consideration of replacing him increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index and boosting the metal market. The US economy showed signs of stagflation or shallow recession, and the Fed might resume interest rate cuts in the future. The cease - fire in the Middle - East was a positive sign for the capital market [9]. - **Supply - demand Aspect**: The global copper concentrate supply shortage persisted. Some small and medium - sized smelters in China reduced production slightly, and new production capacity might be postponed. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of copper cable enterprises remained above 80%, and the new energy vehicle industry maintained a high growth rate, which could offset the decline in demand from traditional industries. The global refined copper balance might turn slightly short in the second half of the year [10] 3. Industry News - **Peru's Copper Production**: In April, Peru's copper production reached 220,200 tons, a 7.9% year - on - year increase. From January to April, the cumulative production was 886,700 tons, a 4.9% year - on - year increase. Las Bambas copper mine became the third - largest copper mine in Peru [12]. - **Western Mining's Project**: Western Mining's subsidiary, Yulong Copper, received approval for its third - phase project. After completion, the ore - processing scale will increase to 30 million tons/year, and the annual copper metal output is expected to reach 180,000 - 200,000 tons [13]. - **Antofagasta's Expansion**: Antofagasta's Los Pelambres copper mine has produced over 8.5 million tons of copper. After the first - phase expansion, two new projects are in progress. The company's copper production guidance for 2025 is 660,000 - 700,000 tons [14]. - **Copper Rod Market**: The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China decreased slightly. The copper rod market in East and South China was weak, and the start - up rate of copper rod enterprises is expected to decline in early July [15] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and SHFE, and the trends of copper premiums, spreads, and import profits and losses [19][22][26]

Group 1 - Barclays recently released its Q3 Emerging Markets Outlook report, indicating that global investors are diversifying their investment allocations away from the US [1] - Rising commodity export prices are positively impacting emerging markets, leading investors to refocus on emerging market assets [1] - Geopolitical disturbances and global economic slowdown impacts on emerging markets are expected to diminish [1] Group 2 - The weakening of the US dollar is a significant positive factor for emerging markets, as investors are diversifying their dollar asset allocations [3] - A shift in capital flow patterns is changing the global investment landscape, with increased demand for hedging against dollar risk potentially leading to more funds flowing into emerging market assets [3] - The foreign exchange market is exhibiting a complex situation, with oil price increases strengthening the dollar against Asian currencies while maintaining weakness against the euro [3] Group 3 - Emerging markets are showing internal performance divergence, with the Asian region's export performance remaining relatively robust [4] - Policy flexibility in Asia, supported by moderate inflation data, provides important backing for economic stability [4] - The Chinese market demonstrates unique resilience, with strong retail sales, robust exports, and favorable GDP data expected to lead to potential incremental fiscal policies in September or October [4]

Group 1 - The Barclays research team believes that emerging markets are impacted by US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and global economic slowdown, but these effects are offset by rising commodity export prices and renewed investor interest in emerging market assets for diversification [1] - The outlook for local and credit markets in emerging markets is expected to remain strong, with trends likely to continue [1] - The weakening of the US dollar since the beginning of the year is not seen as a negative factor for emerging market economies, and any trend towards diversifying away from dollar assets could further weaken the dollar and benefit emerging markets [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment is favorable for emerging market currencies due to the broad weakening of the US dollar and decreased market volatility, which particularly benefits arbitrage trading [2] - Investor enthusiasm for emerging market credit appears low, with recent inflows into emerging market bond funds concentrated in local currency funds, despite emerging market sovereign credit spreads showing resilience [2] - Emerging market sovereign credit spreads are only about 15 basis points above their lowest levels in years, indicating strong performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [2] Group 3 - Despite the announcement of tariffs by the US in early April, emerging Asian markets have shown relatively robust export performance, attributed to trade front-loading effects, although this may vary by economy [3] - Core inflation in the region is showing signs of rising, while energy inflation remains low; however, geopolitical tensions could lead to higher oil prices and sustained inflation [3] - The average CPI inflation forecast for the top ten emerging Asian economies for 2025 has decreased to 1.5%, down from 2.2% in 2024, indicating a potential for more cautious monetary policy amid moderate inflation data [3]

智通财经6月27日电，道明证券预计下半年美元将进一步走弱，但下跌步伐将比年初放缓。 ...

Group 1 - ICE cotton futures prices have surged to a one-month high, driven by a weaker dollar and rising oil prices [1] - The increase in cotton prices may indicate broader market trends influenced by currency fluctuations and commodity prices [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring these developments to assess their impact on the cotton industry and related sectors [1]

智通财经APP获悉，亚洲交易大厅再度热闹非凡，该地区逐渐摆脱关税冲击，凭借稳健增长前景吸引着 投资者的目光。股票、货币到信贷市场皆自4月市场动荡低谷迎来强势反弹。摩根士丹利资本国际 (MSCI)亚洲股指已飙升25%，创四年新高;美元走弱则推动亚洲货币指标升至去年10月以来最强水平。 企业纷纷抢抓市场复苏机遇，加速融资。 这与数月前的市场恐慌形成鲜明反转，当时，对全面贸易战的担忧、对失控通胀限制央行政策空间的顾 虑，沉重压制亚洲资产。如今，美元走弱为亚洲多国降息创造空间，而美联储预期中的宽松政策，料将 进一步助力。 "股市从4月低点强劲反弹，投资者意识到，此前对特朗普关税的悲观或许过头了。" 景顺资产管理全球 市场策略师Tomo Kinoshita表示，"特朗普在贸易政策上展现出更多灵活性，这提振了乐观情绪。" 从港股到日本的大规模股票发行热潮已直观体现市场热度。彭博数据显示，截至目前，包括首次公开募 股(IPO)在内，亚洲地区此类融资已超900亿美元，较去年同期增长25% 。 香港主导大型交易的同时，日本资本市场本周也活力满满，IPO规模创3月中旬以来新高。 亚洲债券资本市场也在波动高峰时的交易荒后，强势复苏 ...

Group 1: Conference Overview - The CITIC Futures 2025 Mid-Year Strategy Conference was held on June 25, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Riding the Wind and Breaking the Waves" [1] - The conference featured one main forum and ten sub-forums, covering macroeconomics, equity, bonds, commodities, exchange rates, asset management, OTC derivatives, and overseas markets [1] Group 2: Keynote Speeches - CITIC Futures Chairman Dou Changhong emphasized the company's commitment to high-quality industrial services and the globalization of futures business [2] - Fudan University Professor Shen Guobing discussed the impact of Trump's tariff policies on Sino-U.S. trade, highlighting the challenges of trade fragmentation, geopolitical conflicts, and climate crises [3] - Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, noted that U.S. stocks are in a high valuation phase, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are attracting significant foreign investment [4] Group 3: Market Outlooks - CITIC Futures Vice President Zeng Ning provided an outlook on the macro and commodity markets, indicating that the real estate sector will continue to drag down commodity demand for 1-2 years [5] - The Financial Forum discussed the shift from tariff-driven to dollar-driven macro themes, with a focus on structural allocation in A-shares [6] - The Nonferrous Forum highlighted the influence of U.S. trade policies on the market, with basic metals expected to remain strong despite macro uncertainties [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The Agricultural Forum indicated that many agricultural products are facing price declines due to high supply, with potential supply contractions in the future [9] - The Black Forum discussed the cyclical downturn in construction steel demand, while the coal and coke markets face long-term pressure [10] - The Energy Transition Forum addressed the oversupply pressures in both traditional and new energy sectors, with coal and natural gas markets expected to face challenges [11][12] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The Asset Management Forum explored the innovative use of derivatives in wealth management, emphasizing the importance of risk management tools [15] - The Chemical Forum discussed the relationship between refined oil and chemical products, with a focus on market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [14] Group 6: Conclusion - The conference successfully provided a platform for sharing insights and strategies, reinforcing CITIC Futures' commitment to compliance, integrity, professionalism, and responsibility in the industry [16]

6月25日消息，据报道，美联储主席鲍威尔在被问及近期美元走弱时表示，市场一直在消化一系列异常 具有挑战性的环境。他还表示，债券市场目前状况良好，运作正常。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：（被问及近期美元走弱）市场一直在消化一系列异常具有挑战性的环境。 ...