美联储理事米兰：美国通胀再度趋于稳定。 ...

来源：滚动播报 （来源：经济参考报） 美国财长贝森特8日公开表示，预计美联储即使换帅也不会很快实施缩表。此番表态正逢美国劳动力市 场复苏脆弱和多位官员支持继续降息，业界因此预计，美联储官员更倾向在近期通过降息刺激就业市 场，而对通胀予以一定容忍度。 业界认为，美联储的缩表计划面临重重阻力，既可能遭遇美联储官员的反对，金融市场也会对此做出剧 烈反应。如果新提名的美联储主席沃什迅速缩减美联储资产负债表，则很可能会推高美国长期利率，与 美国总统特朗普"迅速降低借贷成本"的期望背道而驰。贝森特判断，在未来一年时间内，美联储将细致 观察市场状况，不会在降息背景下贸然缩表。公开数据显示，美联储已将因金融危机和疫情时期实施量 化宽松政策而扩张的资产负债表缩减了约2.4万亿美元。 而在各界关注的美联储降息节奏方面，由于此前就业数据不及预期，降息预期则骤然上升。 美国旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利日前表示，她判断美联储可能还需要进行一次或两次降息操作，以应对 劳动力市场的疲软状况。当前，劳动者处境艰难，原因是物价上涨侵蚀了工资收入，同时新增就业机会 稀缺。 戴利称，尽管物价稳定与充分就业（美联储两大目标）之间的风险看起来"相对平衡" ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美联储官员释放重磅政策信号。 美国旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）最新表示，美联储可能还需要进行1次或2次降息，以应对 美国劳动力市场的疲软状况。另外，美联储副主席杰斐逊也警告称，美国就业市场存在突然走弱的可能 性。 宏观数据方面，美国2026年1月就业与通胀报告都将在下周发布，或将给市场研判美联储政策趋势提供重 要参考。目前分析师对1月非农就业增长的预期集中在6万—8万区间，若低于这个数字将刺激降息预期升 温。据CME"美联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为23.2%，维持利率不变的概 率为76.8%。 美联储官员发声 旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利在最新的采访中表示，她认为美联储可能还需要进行一次或两次降息操作，以 应对美国劳动力市场的疲软状况。 她指出，当前美国劳动者处境艰难，因为物价上涨侵蚀了工资收入，同时新增就业机会稀缺。 "在利率问题上，我认为我们必须保持开放的态度，非常开放的态度。" 戴利于当地时间2月6日在接受媒 体采访时表示。这是她自上月底美联储维持利率不变以来首次接受采访 ...

宏观数据方面，美国2026年1月就业与通胀报告都将在下周发布，或将给市场研判美联储政策趋势提供重要参 考。目前分析师对1月非农就业增长的预期集中在6万—8万区间，若低于这个数字将刺激降息预期升温。据 CME"美联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为23.2%，维持利率不变的概率为76.8%。 美联储官员释放重磅政策信号。 美国旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）最新表示，美联储可能还需要进行1次或2次降息，以应对美国劳 动力市场的疲软状况。另外，美联储副主席杰斐逊也警告称，美国就业市场存在突然走弱的可能性。 她表示，如果企业发现预期需求未能实现，劳动力市场中解雇现象可能开始增多，但鉴于通胀预期保持稳定， 她并不认为通胀会大幅升温。 美联储官员发声 旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利在最新的采访中表示，她认为美联储可能还需要进行一次或两次降息操作，以应对 美国劳动力市场的疲软状况。 她指出，当前美国劳动者处境艰难，因为物价上涨侵蚀了工资收入，同时新增就业机会稀缺。 "在利率问题上，我认为我们必须保持开放的态度，非常开放的态度。" 戴利于当地时间2月6日在接受媒体采 访时表示。这是她自上月底美联 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 2026年01月30日 美国 1 月 FOMC 会议点评 降息的"两道门槛" 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 1 月 29 日，美联储议息会议宣布政策利率维持在 3.50-3.75%不变，降息暂停。 评论： 图1：1 月 FOMC 会议决议声明要点梳理 | 国信证券 | | 美联储议息会议实施说明要点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 维度 | 2026. 01 | 2025. 12 | 2025. ...

"美国通胀与劳动力市场或将释放大量矛盾信号，对美联储及其货币政策带来挑战。" 瑞银首席美国经 济学家Jonathan Pingle在接受记者专访时表示，美联储今年最大的政策驱动因素将是劳动力市场，目前 失业率仍处于略高水平，到年底大约维持在4.5%左右，这样的疲软程度足以支撑美联储今年实施两次 降息。无论新任美联储主席是谁，即使不立即降息，也会逐步推动利率下行。Pingle认为，关税传导效 应延缓了美国整体通胀下降的进程，上半年通胀将保持在高位，但2027年通胀有望回落。对于今年美国 股市前景，Pingle持相对乐观态度，预期今年依然会有不错表现。（21财经） 来源：滚动播报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts is in line with market expectations, and the interest rate guidance reflects significant internal differences among officials. Powell emphasized that the current policy is not "significantly tight," and raising interest rates is not the basic assumption for anyone's next move. There is still a possibility of interest rate cuts this year, sending a dovish signal. The Fed is likely to open the window for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to the support of the short - term US economic fundamentals, the marginal mitigation of the downward risk in the employment market and the upward risk of inflation, and the better - than - expected economic resilience shown by retail sales data [1][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Decision - On the early morning of January 29, 2026, after three consecutive interest rate cuts since September 2025, the Fed suspended interest rate cuts as expected, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75%, and the reserve balance rate and discount rate at 3.65% and 3.75% respectively. Since the start of the interest rate cut cycle in September 2024, the Fed has cut interest rates by a total of 175BP [1][3]. 3.2 Interest Rate Statement - The Fed's judgment on the economic outlook has improved compared to December, especially in the employment aspect. There are still differences among officials on interest rate cuts. Milan and Waller voted against the decision. Milan has voted against four times in a row, and Waller, as a potential candidate for the new Fed chairman, voted against and supported a 25BP interest rate cut. In terms of economic description, it changed from "expanding at a moderate pace" in December to "expanding at a robust pace." Regarding employment, the Fed said that "the unemployment rate has shown certain signs of stabilization." For inflation, the description changed from the trend judgment of "inflation has risen compared to the beginning of the year" in December to the absolute - level judgment of "inflation is still slightly high" [1][6][9]. 3.3 Labor Market - The downward risk of employment has been marginally alleviated, and the unemployment rate has tended to be stable. Since July 2025, the US unemployment rate has remained in the range of 4.3% - 4.5%, and the weekly initial jobless claims have not increased further. However, non - farm payrolls are still at a low level, and the scale of new jobs in the government and private sectors is relatively limited. The supply and demand sides of the employment market have slowed down, but the risk of a significant weakening has decreased significantly, reducing the need for short - term interest rate cuts and supporting the Fed's wait - and - see stance [1][11]. 3.4 Inflation - Concerns about inflation rebound have subsided, but the absolute level is still higher than the long - term target. In December, the year - on - year CPI and core CPI in the US were 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, and the month - on - month were 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Among the sub - items, the prices of household goods and clothing related to tariffs in core commodities continued to rise, the prices of leisure services increased significantly, the prices of education services decreased significantly month - on - month, and housing inflation remained resilient. Although the December inflation data alleviated market concerns about inflation rebound, the absolute level of inflation has not returned to the policy target, which restricts the Fed's subsequent easing operations [1][16]. 3.5 Other Issues - Powell did not make substantial responses to political issues such as the Cook case, the Department of Justice subpoena, and the dollar fluctuation at the press conference. He has no plans for his future after his term as chairman expires in May. He also said that the lawsuit against Fed Governor Cook might be the most significant case in the Fed's history, emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence, and suggested that the next Fed chairman should stay away from elected politics [1][18].

2026 年 1 月 29 日 总量研究 一季度美联储重启降息概率不高 ——2026 年 1 月 FOMC 会议点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 如期降息，扩表在途——2025年12月FOMC 会议点评（2025-12-11） 美联储有望开启新一轮宽松周期——2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-09-18） 美联储在等待关税"冲击"——2025 年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-06-20） 美联储短期强硬，下半年或更为主动—— 2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-05-08） 美联储"降息的心"始终不变——2025 年 3 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-03-20） 美联储降息窗口正徐徐打开——2024年3月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-03-21） 美联储为何主动向市场预期靠拢？——2023 年 12 月 FOMC 会议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while economic activity shows robust expansion but with high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged was anticipated, with a probability exceeding 97% according to CME "FedWatch" [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted that employment growth remains sluggish, but there are signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains elevated [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.9% over the past 12 months, while the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 4.3% [2]. - Powell indicated that tariff-induced inflation is expected to dissipate by mid-2026, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures in the future [3]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is currently pricing in two rate cuts for this year, with a high probability of maintaining rates in March exceeding 80% [3]. - Analysts from Huatai Securities and CICC suggest that the Fed's January meeting supports a more optimistic view of the U.S. economy and employment market, with expectations of rate cuts potentially occurring after the new chair takes office mid-year [3].

据央视新闻消息，当地时间1月28日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，建议下一届美联储主席与美国政治"划清界限"。 当地时间28日，鲍威尔在美联储大楼举行记者会。图源：视觉中国 当天早些时候，美联储公布最新一期货币政策会议纪要，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变。随后，美联储主席鲍威尔 就该决定举行发布会，并就美国当前经济状况及美联储下任主席等问题接受记者提问。 特朗普27日表示，将很快宣布新的美联储主席人选。他当天再次抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，称其是"一位糟糕的美联储主席"。 28日，美国财长贝森特表示，特朗普提名的美联储主席人选可能在一周左右内揭晓。 来源：央视新闻、长安街知事 鲍威尔还表示，他和美联储其他官员致力于维护美联储的独立性。他还对上周出席最高法院的口头辩论表示，此案"或许是美联储113年历史上最 重要的法律案件"，"我仔细考虑后认为，如果我不出席，可能很难解释清楚原因。" 据此前报道，当地时间1月11日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已就美国联邦储备委员会华盛顿总部翻修项目，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目向 美国国会作伪证一事，对他展开刑事调查。 鲍威尔发布视频声明证实，特朗普政府因他20 ...