中金发布研报称，美国11月整体和核心CPI大幅低于预期和前值，整体同比2.74%，一致预期3.06%，前 值3.01%;核心同比2.63%，一致预期3.03%，前值3.02%。依然维持美国通胀问题不大这一判断，整体和 核心CPI明年一季度和二季度分别见顶。今年市场在4月和8月因关税两度引发通胀担忧，但实际结果证 明，两次都没有什么实质影响，市场徒增担忧，这也是一直强调的看法。核心原因就在于一个"慢"字， 只要传导的足够慢(例如目前美国居民承担的关税利率也就是10-15%左右)，那就不妨碍美联储降息，也 可以留出很多空间解决其他问题。 中金主要观点如下： 政府关门之后的第一份通胀数据也终于出炉，结果就很"炸裂"，断崖式下行。 11月整体和核心CPI大幅低于预期和前值，整体同比2.74%，一致预期3.06%，前值3.01%;核心同比 2.63%，一致预期3.03%，前值3.02%。环比也是类似，10月因政府关门无法统计，所以环比只有10-11 月平均口径，整体0.10%，前值0.31%;核心0.08%，前值0.23%。 在数据公布前的预测已经低于市场共识，但结果比该行已经处于主要机构光谱低端的预测还要低，所以 称 ...

中新社华盛顿12月18日电 (记者陈孟统)美国劳工部18日发布数据称，美国11月消费者价格指数(CPI)同 比上涨2.7%。由于10月联邦政府"停摆"，调查数据未采集，11月未公布常规的单月环比数据。 这一通胀数据低于市场普遍预期，也较美国9月CPI同比3.0%的涨幅有所回落。 数据显示，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%。当月，能源价格指数 同比上涨4.2%，食品价格指数同比上涨2.6%。 11月份，美国住房类价格指数同比上涨3.0%，成为推动物价上涨的主要因素。其他涨幅较为明显的领 域还包括医疗保健、家庭家具及运营、娱乐以及二手车价格等。 《华尔街日报》指出，美国11月的CPI数据显示通胀有所放缓，但由于调查采集存在缺口，相关数据可 能低估了实际通胀水平，不宜对这份报告作过度解读。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's year-end speech aimed to highlight his administration's achievements while blaming the Biden administration for ongoing issues like rising prices and illegal immigration, amidst declining support and economic challenges [1][4]. Economic and Public Sentiment Pressure - Recent data shows significant pressure on the Trump administration regarding economic and public sentiment, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, and approximately 7.83 million unemployed individuals, significantly higher than the previous year [2] - Polls indicate that nearly half of respondents feel substantial pressure from living costs, with about 60% expressing pessimism about the future, and over half believing the U.S. is in a recession [2] - Only 33% of Americans approve of Trump's economic policies, marking the lowest approval rating during his second term, with support among his core "MAGA" voters declining by 8 percentage points since April [2] Economic Outlook and Predictions - Economist Paul Krugman noted that while it cannot be definitively stated that the U.S. is in a recession, some economic indicators show "pre-recession" characteristics, contrasting sharply with Trump's optimistic portrayal of the economy [3] Speech Content Analysis - Trump's speech had three main focuses: 1. Blame-shifting, repeatedly attributing issues to Biden, claiming he inherited the highest inflation in 48 years and the worst border situation [4] 2. Self-promotion, claiming to have secured $18 trillion in investments, which is significantly higher than the $9.6 trillion reported by the White House, and falsely stating that inflation has stopped [4] 3. Vague promises regarding housing reform and tax cuts, lacking specific details or timelines, perceived as mere slogans [4] Midterm Election Implications - With less than a year until the midterm elections, the Republican Party faces a challenging outlook, as economic issues are seen as critical to election outcomes. Trump's failure to lower prices, a key campaign promise, remains unfulfilled [6] - Analysts suggest that if Trump's economic policies do not meet voter expectations, the Republican Party may face significant losses in the midterm elections, with public sentiment shifting blame from Biden to the current administration [6]

今晚市场迎来美国通胀报告，预计11月CPI年率维持在3%的增速，如果符合预期，则不会大幅扰乱当前 市场对于美联储1月降息的押注概率。但如果通胀出现意外，则会再次给市场带来波动，并直接定下年 末的方向。美联储密切关注价格趋势，以指导其2026年的政策展望，投资者将从这份报告中寻找通胀压 力变化的迹象——例如，能源成本对总体数据的影响。 由于人工智能相关股票的疲软抵消了投资者对美联储可能进一步降息的乐观情绪，美国股市连续第四个 交易日下跌。标普500指数周三下跌1.2%，创下一个月来最长连跌纪录。交易员们正在密切关注美联储 的下一步动向，今晚关键通胀数据以及每周初请失业金人数，将为美联储的潜在利率路径提供线索。由 于市场预期CPI年率持稳在3%，若符合预期则可能对美股的波动影响有限。根据巴克莱银行汇编的数 据，期权交易员押注标普500指数在通胀报告公布后将出现0.7%的波动。 近年来，美国通胀率已从2022年的峰值回落，但目前仍保持在3%左右，略高于美联储2%的目标。劳动 力市场显示出温和的降温迹象：就业增长放缓，失业率从低点（9月份达到约4.4%）小幅上升。在这种 背景下，美联储上周宣布了年内第三次降息，将联邦 ...

由于政府停摆导致10月部分资料缺失，此次非农就业资料噪音较大，货币市场反应温和。就业市场整体 走弱，但尚未大幅恶化。首次领取失业金和持续领取失业金人数小幅改善，服务业PMI就业指数和 Indeed网站职位招聘数回升，显示就业市场仍有韧性。 招银国际发布研报称，预计美国2026年经济增长率和失业率可能走平，通胀先降再升，美联储可能在6 月降息一次。该行表示，美国10月新增非农业就业大幅萎缩，因年初政府裁员的合约买断结束时间集中 来临，私人就业维持扩张。11月新增非农业就业反弹并优于市场预期，但主要集中在建筑、医疗和教育 服务等少数行业，失业率意外升至4.6%创近4年新高。 ...

Employment Data - In November 2025, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000, while October's figure was revised to -105,000[6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the expected 4.5%, marking the highest level since October 2021[6][9] - The labor participation rate increased to 62.5%, reflecting a return of workers to the job market[9] Wage Growth and Inflation - Private sector hourly wage growth slowed to 0.1% month-on-month, significantly below the expected 0.3%[9] - Year-on-year wage growth decreased to 3.5%, down from 3.8%[9] - Core service inflation pressures are easing as wage growth decelerates[9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The current employment data does not indicate a need for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[9] - The Fed is expected to pause rate cuts until at least Q1 2026, with a potential cumulative cut of at least 50 basis points by year-end[9][32] - The upcoming change in Fed leadership in May 2026 may lead to a more dovish approach to monetary policy, depending on economic conditions[9]

Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations and indicating a dovish stance [4][5] - The Fed initiated a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program, committing to purchase $40 billion of short-term Treasury bonds monthly starting in December, aimed at releasing liquidity [5] - Economic outlook has been adjusted positively, with the GDP growth forecast for 2026 raised by 0.5 percentage points, while the core PCE inflation forecast was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a controlled inflation environment [5] Market Reaction - As of December 10, major indices showed positive movement: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.0%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% [6] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 5 basis points to 4.13%, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 7 basis points to 3.54% [6] - The US dollar index closed at 98.64, reflecting market adjustments following the Fed's announcement [6] Future Outlook - The Fed may pause rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, with potential cuts occurring 2-3 times from June to November, depending on the new Fed chair's leadership [5] - The second quarter of 2026 may present a favorable window for Treasury bond investments, contingent on the resolution of uncertainties such as tariff judicial decisions and government shutdowns [5]

中信证券研报称，虽然特朗普关税税率名义上对外较高，但实质上部分商品关税存在豁免或税率下调， 并且基于特朗普表态，后续美国有效关税税率还存在进一步下降的可能性。整体而言，在美国经济下行 压力增大、特朗普关税政策实质性下调的背景下，关税对于美国通胀的压力或有限，后续美国通胀压力 或较为可控。 ...

北京时间12月11日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基 金利率目标区间降至3.5%至3.75%，符合市场预期。 这是美联储货币政策会议自9月以来连续第三次降息，也是自2024年9月启动本轮降息周期以来第六次降 息。 如果说降息25个基点是早已剧透的 "明牌"，那么真正牵动市场神经的，恰恰是这张 "明牌" 背后的 "表 情与语气"—— 美联储的政策措辞、内部分歧以及未来的降息路径指引。 那么，除降息以外，美联储这场"年终大戏"，还有哪些弦外之音？ 防范劳动力市场疲软 策没有预设路径，将"逐次会议决定"。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒将鲍威尔的讲话定义为 "中性偏鸽"：没有释放暂停降息的信号，对明年1 月的会议保持开放态度，同时对就业市场态度谨慎，多次提及官方就业数据可能高估、实际新增就业或 为负数；而对通胀回落则相对乐观，认为关税对物价的影响更偏向 "一次性冲击"。 广开首席产研院资深研究员刘涛对风口财经记者表示，从会议情况来看，本次降息的核心动因是就业市 场走弱。今年前三季度，美国失业率分别为4.0%、4.2%、4.4%，虽低于4.5%的红线，但连续三个季度 上行，且显著 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5-3.75% on December 11, 2025, marking a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year[3]. - The dot plot indicates that the median expectation for 2026 is only one rate cut, reflecting significant internal disagreement among officials regarding economic conditions[16]. - The Fed's economic forecast for 2025-2028 shows an upward revision of GDP growth to 1.7% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, while maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.5% and 4.4% respectively[15]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Employment - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.4% in September 2025, the highest since October 2021, with projections suggesting it may reach around 4.45% by late 2025[30]. - Core PCE inflation is expected to be 3.0% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, reflecting a slight downward revision from previous forecasts[15]. - The Fed's strategy may involve further rate cuts in 2026, with expectations of 2-3 cuts, primarily in the first half of the year, as the labor market remains weak and inflation stabilizes[29]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the Fed's announcement, market reactions included a rise in stock prices and a decline in the dollar index, indicating a more dovish market sentiment[23]. - The Fed's independence may face challenges due to political pressures, which could influence future monetary policy decisions[24]. - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed chair could lead to a more dovish policy stance, although the overall committee may lean more hawkish due to changes in voting members[27].