Inflation Data Summary - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to 0.2% previously, slightly exceeding the market forecast of 0.3%[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month[2] Inflation Drivers - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in food, energy, and housing[3] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with beef prices significantly increasing by 2.7%[4] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, recovering from a decline of 1.1% in the previous month[4] Market Expectations and Fed Policy - The current inflation trend suggests a controlled environment for further interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut expected in September[3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in October have risen to 82.1%, up from 73.9% the previous day[7] - The probability of another 25 basis point cut in December is at 75.4%, increasing from 68.1%[7]

Inflation and Employment Trends - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and marking the highest level in the past seven months[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year, consistent with previous values[1] - The month-on-month CPI adjusted for seasonal factors rose by 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3%[1] Employment Data and Market Reactions - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly surged to 263,000, the highest level since June 2023, indicating significant employment risks[3] - Following the CPI release, the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve increased to 90% for September, October, and December[3] - Major U.S. stock indices rose post-CPI announcement, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.9%, 0.7%, and 1.4% respectively[3] Core Inflation Components - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, while energy prices increased by 0.7%, driven by a notable rise in gasoline prices[2] - Core goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with clothing, new cars, and used cars showing rebounds[2] - "Super core inflation," excluding food, energy, and housing, was reported at 0.12% month-on-month, consistent with previous months[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that employment risks outweigh inflation risks, leading to expectations of rate cuts in the near term[4] - Future rate decisions will depend on whether employment data stabilizes and the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair[4]

近期，美国劳工部公布了备受瞩目的8月物价数据，这组数据恰逢美联储FOMC会议前的关键节点，成为决定本月是否启动今年首次降息的重要风向标。市 场屏息以待的CPI同比增幅最终定格在2.9%，与华尔街普遍预期完全吻合。 这一数据的发布犹如投入金融市场的重磅炸弹，瞬间点燃了投资者对降息的强烈预期，美股三大指数当天全部上涨，纳斯达克又一次破了历史最高纪录。 此前，困扰降息决策的最后一个数据障碍被清除，美联储在9月下调联邦基金利率几乎成为定局，当前市场焦点已从"是否降息"转向"降息幅度究竟是25个基 点还是50个基点"。 根据芝商所FedWatch工具实时监测，交易员们对不同情景的定价已形成清晰概率分布：9月降息25个基点的可能性高达93.9%，降息50个基点的概率则为 6.1%；至10月累计降息路径中，降息50个基点的概率达86.8%，而累计降息75个基点的概率仅为5.6%。 由此可见，最可能出现的是9月和10月各降息25个基点的"双25"组合，亦不排除单月出现50个基点的激进降息配合另一月25个基点的保守操作。 这种乐观情绪的升温，很大程度上得益于美国劳工部近期的"出色表现"。除了8月CPI数据符合预期外，上周发布的 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Zinc, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Ethanol, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, PP, Alumina [1] - **Bearish**: Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Soda Ash, Black Metal, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping Routes [1] - **Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Alumina, Stainless Steel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Paper Pulp, Live Pigs, Natural Rubber, PE, PP, PVC, PG [1] Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index futures' discount has widened again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustments may bring long - position layout opportunities. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, providing support for gold prices. [1] - For base metals, the US CPI inflation data basically meets expectations, increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The approaching consumption peak season may drive up copper and aluminum prices. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but there is still pressure from long - term primary nickel oversupply. [1] - In the black metal sector, the supply - demand situation is not optimistic in the short - term, with supply recovering and demand at risk of weakening, and high inventory levels. The steel market is under pressure due to supply surplus. [1] - In the agricultural products sector, the market situation varies. For example, palm oil has short - term callback risks but long - term upward logic. Cotton has short - term supply tightness, while sugar is expected to be in a weak - sideway trend. [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, the overall situation is affected by factors such as production increases, cost support, and demand changes. For example, crude oil's fundamental situation is loose, and PTA's production has recovered. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term discount widening and liquidity drive may offer long - position opportunities during short - term index adjustments [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning suppresses upside [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed's expected September interest - rate cut provides support, short - term high - level strong operation with attention to volatility risks [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level strong operation [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US inflation data and approaching consumption peak season may drive up prices [1] - **Aluminum**: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and consumption peak season may lead to a strong trend [1] - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, but price is near the cost line with limited downward space [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures the price, but LME inventory decline and macro support limit the downside [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - driven strong oscillation, long - term primary nickel oversupply pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Raw - material support exists, short - term sideway operation [1] - **Tin**: Overall support exists, pay attention to low - long opportunities [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drive is unclear, and macro drive is positive [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward adjustment opportunities [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term supply - demand is not optimistic, with high inventory [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is weak, price is under pressure [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus pressure is large, price is under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term callback risk, long - term upward logic [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic inventory increase may pressure the price, but long - term upward logic remains [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term supply tightness, new - cotton acquisition game is the focus [1] - **Sugar**: Expected to be in a weak - sideway trend, short - term downward space is limited [1] - **Corn**: New - grain harvest may bring selling pressure, C01 is expected to decline [1] - **Soybean Meal**: MO1 has limited downward space, short - term sideway adjustment, consider low - long [1] - **Paper Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread [1] - **Logs**: Fundamental situation is stable, price is in a weak - sideway trend [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tension, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectation affect the price [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar influencing factors as crude oil [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Raw - material cost support, slow inventory removal, and negative market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Follow crude oil, pay attention to inventory removal and device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Production recovery, downstream profit improvement [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthening, new device production pressure [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Device return, weakening delivery willingness [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Inventory accumulation, supply increase, import pressure [1] - **PE**: Macro - positive, more maintenance, weak - sideway price [1] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, sideway - weak trend [1] - **PVC**: Return to fundamentals, supply pressure, sideway - weak trend [1] - **Alumina**: Approaching peak season, low inventory, price rebound [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase, fundamental pressure, downstream profit deterioration [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping Routes**: September supply exceeds the same - period level, freight rate decline is faster than expected [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of lead is fluctuating, with the Shanghai lead futures and London lead futures showing certain price changes and trading volume and position adjustments [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day; the closing price of the London lead 3M electronic market was 1,988.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.53% [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 41,772 lots, a decrease of 3,543 lots; the trading volume of London lead was 6,327 lots, an increase of 1,905 lots. The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 49,603 lots, a decrease of 864 lots; the open interest of London lead was 158,239 lots, an increase of 784 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -30 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -42.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 59,737 tons, an increase of 6,048 tons; the LME lead inventory was 232,625 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -198 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - The State Council will carry out comprehensive reform pilot projects on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions including Beijing Sub - center, key cities in southern Jiangsu, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, and Hefei Metropolitan Area [2] - US inflation was basically in line with expectations. The core CPI in August increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, the same as Wall Street expectations and July. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased to 263,000, reaching a nearly four - year high [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

Core Insights - Inflation has shown a moderate increase, with the August CPI year-on-year growth rising to 2.9%, and the core CPI remaining stable at 3.1% [4][15] - The increase in energy and food prices has been offset by a decrease in core services and an increase in core goods [4][15] Inflation Trends - The CPI for energy has rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2% in August, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Gasoline prices have seen a reduced decline of -6.6% year-on-year, while electricity prices have increased by 6.2% [5] Core Goods Analysis - The year-on-year growth rate for core goods has risen to 1.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [7] - Significant price increases have been observed in used cars, which saw a year-on-year growth of 6%, and new cars, which increased by 0.7% [7] Core Services Overview - The year-on-year growth rate for core services has remained stable at 3.6%, with a slight decrease in the month-on-month growth rate to 0.3% [9] - The owner’s equivalent rent has decreased to a growth rate of 4%, indicating a cooling trend in housing inflation [9] Long-term Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for one year have risen to 4.8%, while five-year expectations have increased to 3.5% [12] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index decreased, leading to market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut [15]

Group 1 - The latest U.S. CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9% in August, matching expectations and slightly up from July's 2.7% [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.1% year-on-year in August, consistent with market estimates and July's level [2] - The housing price index contributed significantly to the price increase in August, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4% [2] Group 2 - Recent employment data indicates a cooling labor market, with initial jobless claims reaching 263,000, exceeding the market forecast of 235,000 [3] - A downward revision of non-farm payrolls shows a decrease of 911,000 jobs from initial estimates, marking the largest downward adjustment since 2000 [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are high, with a probability of 89.1%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 10.9% [3] Group 3 - The chief economist at Minsheng Bank noted a significant decline in job creation capacity in the U.S. labor market, although large-scale layoffs have not yet occurred [4] - A 25 basis point rate cut is viewed as more prudent due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and the need for further evidence of recession [4]

（文章来源：第一财经） 中信证券认为，美国8月CPI大致符合预期，通胀形势未恶化，进口敏感型商品价格和核心服务通胀都 比较平稳。白宫关税合法性的争议悬而未决，这可能是企业暂缓涨价的原因之一。美国总体CPI同比增 速未来数月可能将在3%附近徘徊，我们维持美联储年内将连续降息三次各25bps的预测，降息交易应该 是近期比较明朗的主线。 ...

Market Overview - On September 11, U.S. stock markets opened higher, driven by interest rate cut expectations, with the Nasdaq reaching a new historical high of 22,000 points [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 500 points, surpassing 46,000 points, also marking a historical high, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.58% [1] Individual Stock Movements - Oracle Corporation's stock fell over 4%, despite its founder briefly surpassing Elon Musk to become the world's richest person [3][4] - Notable movements in Chinese stocks included Century Internet rising nearly 15%, Zai Lab increasing over 13%, and GDS Holdings up over 9% [12][13] Economic Data Impact - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with expectations [6] - However, initial jobless claims unexpectedly surged by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, raising concerns about the labor market and reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [6][9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The unexpected rise in jobless claims has led traders to fully price in three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year [10] - Analysts suggest that the increase in jobless claims could lead to a more aggressive rate cut of 50 basis points rather than the anticipated 25 basis points [9] Investor Sentiment - Morgan Stanley reported that U.S. investors' interest in the Chinese market has reached its highest level since 2021, with over 90% of surveyed investors expressing a willingness to increase exposure [15] - Investment interest is expanding beyond internet and ADR sectors to include Hong Kong and onshore A-shares, focusing on areas like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and new consumption [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent U.S. employment and inflation data, which have heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. The data indicates persistent inflation and a concerning rise in unemployment claims, suggesting potential economic challenges ahead [1][4][11]. Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, slightly up from the previous value of 2.7% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with expectations [2] - The super core CPI, which excludes housing and energy service prices, saw a slowdown in growth to 3.52% [2] Employment Data Summary - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 reached 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of 235,000 [5][6] - The August non-farm payroll report indicated a mere increase of 22,000 jobs, continuing a trend of significantly slowed employment growth [7] Market Reactions Summary - Following the release of the inflation and employment data, traders increased their bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability rising from 8% to 11.9% [1][8] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut was reported at 88.1% [8] - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped below 4% for the first time since April [9] Economic Outlook Summary - Analysts suggest that the inflation data indicates ongoing inflationary pressures, influenced by tariffs and rising service costs, which may exert lasting pressure on overall inflation [4][11] - The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE price index, is expected to show a slight year-over-year increase to 3.0% [5] - Concerns about the health of the U.S. job market are growing, with indications that layoffs may be increasing as hiring slows [6][11]