交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，4月28日央行表态"适时降准降息"，市场对流动性 宽松预期升温，但对实体需求传导仍需时间。五一假期期间OPEC+宣布自6月起增产，原油再次走 弱，油制聚烯烃成本支撑减弱。供需端，二季度预计仍有新产能投放，农膜旺季结束，小厂陆续 停车，整体需求下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减弱。当前LL交割品现货价7330（-20）， 基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差343，升贴水比例4.9%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存46.7万吨（-11.2），偏多； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，PMI数据回落，OPEC增产油价走弱，农膜需求淡季，产 业链库存中性偏高，预计PE今日走势震荡 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-8 大越期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，4月28日央行表态"适时降准降息"，市场对流动性 宽松预期升温，但对实体需求传导仍需时间。五一假期期间OPEC+宣布自6月起增产，原油再次走 弱，油制聚烯烃成本支撑减弱。供需端，二季度预计仍有新产能投放，农膜旺季结束，小厂陆续 停车，整体需求下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减弱。当前LL交割品现货价7370（-40）， 基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差287，升贴水比例4.1%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存 ...

• 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+后期可能进一步增产，原油自4月初低点以来 有所反弹，中美关税谈判目前没有进一步消息，近日伊朗港口爆炸消息对市场有一定扰动，实际 影响预计有限。6月预计仍有较多新产能投放，产业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜旺季结束， 小厂陆续停车，整体需求下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减弱。当前LL交割品现货价7410 （-10），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差288，升贴水比例4.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存57.9万吨（+2.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡，农膜旺季结束需求减弱，新产能后期仍有投放，产业链库 存中性偏高，预计PE今日走势震荡 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、基差偏强 • 利空 • 1、新产能集中投放 • 2、加征关税影响需求 • 3 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: April 29, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, but the strong basis provides some support. The market is expected to be volatile today due to factors such as new capacity releases, tariff impacts on demand, and the end of the agricultural film peak season [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official and Caixin PMIs in March showed good performance. OPEC+ may increase production later, and crude oil has rebounded. The Iran port explosion had limited impact. New capacity is expected to be released in June, and the overall demand has declined after the end of the agricultural film peak season. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7420 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 256, with a premium ratio of 3.6%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.9 tons (+2.8), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today due to the end of the agricultural film peak season, new capacity releases, and relatively high inventory [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the PMIs in March were good. OPEC+ may increase production, and crude oil has rebounded. The anti - countermeasures will increase the cost of imported propane. The current PP delivery spot price is 7350 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 238, with a premium ratio of 3.3%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.4 tons (-1.5), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has increased, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today due to rigid demand and neutral inventory [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+后期可能进一步增产，原油自4月初低点以来 有所反弹，中美关税谈判目前没有进一步消息，近日伊朗港口爆炸消息对市场有一定扰动，实际 影响预计有限。6月预计仍有较多新产能投放，产业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜旺季结束， 小厂陆续停车，整体需求下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减弱。当前LL交割品现货价7420 （+0），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差270，升贴水比例3.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存57.9万吨（+2.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡，农膜旺季结束需求减弱，新产能后期仍有投放，产业链库 存中性偏高，预计PE今日走势震荡 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: April 25, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE are bearish, with the market expected to be volatile today due to factors such as new capacity releases, tariff - affected demand, and the end of the agricultural film peak season. However, the strong basis provides some support [4][5]. - The overall fundamentals of PP are also bearish, and its market is expected to be volatile today, mainly influenced by new capacity releases and tariff - affected demand, while the strong basis is a positive factor [6][7]. Summary by Section LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In March, official and Caixin PMI data were good. OPEC+ is increasing production, and crude oil has rebounded since early April, which is expected to drive down the price center. New capacity is concentrated in the second quarter, the agricultural film peak season has ended, and export demand is expected to weaken due to tariffs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7420 (+10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 271, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.8%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 55.1 million tons (+1.9), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by factors such as tariff - weakened exports, concentrated new capacity releases, and neutral industrial chain inventory [4]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In March, official and Caixin PMI data were good. OPEC+ is increasing production, and crude oil has rebounded since early April, which is expected to drive down the price center. Tariff counter - measures are expected to increase the cost of imported propane and affect PDH plant profits. The industrial chain inventory is neutral, and downstream demand such as plastic weaving is mainly for rigid needs. Export demand is expected to weaken due to tariffs. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7350 (+0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 258, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.6%, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 61.9 million tons (-1.8), which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by factors such as tariff - weakened exports, neutral industrial chain inventory, and rigid downstream demand [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 and then slightly increased to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally increased. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then slightly increased to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, but the basis is bullish. The market is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as new capacity releases and tariff - affected export demand [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In March, official PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 ppts from February, and Caixin PMI was 51.2%, up 0.4 ppts from February. OPEC+ is increasing production, and crude oil has rebounded since early April, expected to drive the price center down. New capacity releases are concentrated in Q2. The agricultural film peak season is over, and export demand is expected to weaken due to tariffs. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7430 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of LLDPE 2509 contract is 287, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 55.1 tons (+1.9), neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short and increasing short, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Strong basis [5]. - **Negative Factors**: New capacity concentration, tariff - affected demand, end of agricultural film peak season [5]. - **Main Logic**: New capacity releases and tariff - affected demand [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In March, official PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 ppts from February, and Caixin PMI was 51.2%, up 0.4 ppts from February. OPEC+ is increasing production, and crude oil has rebounded since early April, expected to drive the price center down. Tariff counter - measures may increase the cost of imported propane and affect PDH plant profits. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and export demand is expected to weaken due to tariffs. The current PP delivery spot price is 7350 (+0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of PP 2509 contract is 226, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.2%, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 61.9 tons (-1.8), neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short and increasing short, bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk is expected to fluctuate today [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Strong basis [7]. - **Negative Factors**: New capacity concentration, tariff - affected demand [7]. - **Main Logic**: New capacity releases and tariff - affected demand [7]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: Spot delivery price is 7430 (-30), 09 contract price is 7143 (+3), basis is 287 (-33), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 55.1 (+1.9), and warehouse receipts are 1565 (0) [8]. - **PP**: Spot delivery price is 7350 (+0), 09 contract price is 7124 (+25), basis is 226 (-25), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 61.9 (-1.8), and warehouse receipts are 5550 (0) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, and consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, and consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-4-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+4月3日宣布增产超出市场预期，特朗普对等关 税实施，原油4月初以来明显下跌，成本端带动价格中枢下行。二季度新产能投放仍较为集中， 产业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜旺季结束，整体开工下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减 弱。当前LL交割品现货价7490（-10），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差359，升贴水比例5.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存53.2万吨（+4.3），中性； • 4. 盘 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-4-16 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+4月3日宣布增产超出市场预期，特朗普对等关 税实施，原油4月初以来明显下跌，成本端带动价格中枢下行。二季度新产能投放仍较为集中， 产业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜旺季结束，整体开工下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减 弱。当前LL交割品现货价7500（-0），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差309，升贴水比例4.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存53.2万吨（+4.3），中性； • 4. 盘面 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-4-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+4月3日宣布增产超出市场预期，特朗普对等关 税实施，原油4月初以来明显下跌，成本端带动价格中枢下行。二季度新产能投放仍较为集中， 产业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜旺季结束，整体开工下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减 弱。当前LL交割品现货价7500（-0），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差236，升贴水比例3.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存53.2万吨（+4.3），中性； • 4. 盘面 ...