Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report date: November 10, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [4]. - On October 30, China - US leaders met, with the US canceling some restrictions on Chinese goods and suspending 301 investigations in maritime and logistics fields for one year, and China adjusting counter - measures accordingly. OPEC + announced a suspension of production increase in Q1 2026, leading to oil price fluctuations [4]. - The peak - season demand for agricultural films continues with high - level operation, while inventory preparation for other films is gradually ending. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6800 (+50), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. Other Indicators - The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is - 2, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.0%, neutral [4]. - PE comprehensive inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), bearish [4]. - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4]. Outlook - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. With oversupply in fundamentals, fluctuating crude oil prices, and moderately high industrial inventory, PE is expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. Factors Influencing LLDPE - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound; Phased easing achieved in China - US talks [5]. - Bearish factors: Weak year - on - year demand; Many new projects put into production in Q4 [5]. - Main logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, in October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the China - US meeting and OPEC + production suspension also affected the market. The demand for plastic woven products is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6500 (- 0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. Other Indicators - The basis of PP 2601 contract is 36, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.6%, bullish [6]. - PP comprehensive inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), bearish [6]. - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6]. - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [6]. Outlook - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Given oversupply in fundamentals, fluctuating crude oil prices, and moderately high industrial inventory, PP is expected to fluctuate weakly today [6]. Factors Influencing PP - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound; Phased easing achieved in China - US talks [7]. - Bearish factors: Weak year - on - year demand; Many new projects put into production in Q4 [7]. - Main logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - For LLDPE, the spot delivery product price is 6800 (+50), the 01 contract price is 6802 (- 3), etc. [8] - For PP, the spot delivery product price is 6500 (0), the 01 contract price is 6464 (- 7), etc. [8] Inventory Data - LLDPE: Warehouse receipts are 12,669 (0 change), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 540,000 tons, and social inventory is 510,000 tons [8]. - PP: Warehouse receipts are 14,629 (0 change), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 600,000 tons, and social inventory is 333,000 tons [8] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polyethylene showed different trends. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4,319,500 tons with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene also changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4,906,000 tons with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment is changeable, causing greater fluctuations in polyolefins. The decline in crude oil weakens the cost - side drive. With large - scale capacity investment and high output, the supply side faces significant pressure. The downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level, demand falls short of expectations, and the end of the peak season and insufficient new orders may affect the continuous improvement of subsequent operations. Polyolefins maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to run weakly. Futures should be operated bearishly on a single - side basis, and straddle options should be sold [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 470,000 tons, with inventory expected to change from rising to falling. The new Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased production, putting pressure on producers, who have an expectation of active de - stocking. The downstream factory operating rate is also expected to rise, and low prices are more attractive. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 580,000 tons, a decrease from the current period. Upstream enterprises are actively de - stocking, and the Double Eleven e - commerce festival drives downstream demand [6]. - **Supply**: This week, plants such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Zhongtian Hechuang are planned to restart, and new plants of Sinopec Korea and Zhongsha Petrochemical are planned for maintenance. Coupled with the continuous increase in production from newly - invested plants, the domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. Some producers are still resuming operations, and the estimated loss volume continues to decline. Additionally, the 400,000 - ton/year new plant of Guangxi Petrochemical Phase II will start mass - production and sales soon, so the polypropylene output is expected to increase [6]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly. The greenhouse film is still in the production peak season, but due to the gradual contraction of demand after the Frost's Descent, orders are mainly short - term small ones. The operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily, but after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The profits of oil - based PE and PP, ethylene - based PE, and propylene - based PP are slightly in the red, and the loss of PDH - based PP is relatively large. The cost - side support is weakening [6]. 3.2 PP Single - Side Strategy - Strategy: Short PP. The price shows a downward trend, and as of November 6th, it was 6,471 yuan. The logic is that the new PP production capacity in 2025 is still large, and downstream demand remains weak. PP is expected to be relatively weak in the medium - to - long - term. The operation suggestion is to hold short positions [7]. 3.3 L - P Arbitrage Strategy - Strategy: Long the L - P spread (on hold). The price shows a volatile trend. For the 2601 contract, as of November 6th, it was 334 yuan. The driving force is not strong, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.4 Supply Side - **PE Production**: The domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The plastic industry has maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 12.8%. In 2024, the capacity base was 3.571 million tons, and the new capacity was 340,000 tons. In 2025, the planned new PE production capacity is 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [6][83][90]. - **PP Production**: The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. In 2024, China's PP realized production capacity was about 3.45 million tons, with a capacity base of 4.321 million tons, an 8.6% increase from 2023. In 2025, the planned new PP production capacity is 1.2805 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume is relatively limited [6][89][91]. 3.5 Demand Side - The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly, and the operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily. However, after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations. The report also presents data on the operating rates of various downstream industries of PE and PP, as well as the production and export volumes of related products such as plastics, automobiles, and home appliances [6][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies of plastic L and PP on a daily basis. Overall, the market shows a weak trend, with prices mostly falling. The trading strategies mainly involve holding short - positions for the main contracts of L and PP, with appropriate adjustments to stop - loss points according to market changes. [1][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: The L2601 contract generally shows a downward trend, with prices fluctuating. The LLDPE market price mostly declines, and the trading atmosphere is weak. Downstream demand is not strong, and traders often reduce prices to sell goods. For example, on November 7, 2025, the L2601 contract closed at 6802 points, down 3 points or 0.04%, and the LLDPE market price continued to fall [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP2601 contract also mostly shows a downward trend. The PP market price is weak, and the cost support is weakened. Downstream procurement is cautious, and the market trading volume is limited. For example, on November 7, 2025, the PP2601 contract closed at 6459 points, down 12 points or 0.19%, and the domestic PP market was still weak [1]. Important News - **Industry - related Policies and Events**: The 7 - department "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value from 2025 to 2026. The US government shutdown has affected data supply, increasing the difficulty of decision - making for central banks [33][55]. - **Company - related News**: PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 120 - million - ton/year ethylene plant was successfully put into operation, which will promote the development of the petrochemical industry in the southwest region. Zhonghua International focuses on the main business of chemical new materials, and its MIAK project has achieved certain results [8][15]. Logical Analysis - **Positive Factors**: In September, the domestic pipeline transportation industry's fixed - asset investment completion amount increased by 14.8% year - on - year, with continuous marginal growth for 8 months, which is beneficial to the polyolefin single - side. The EuroCoin index has strengthened for 6 consecutive months, which is also beneficial to the polyolefin single - side [49][30]. - **Negative Factors**: In October, the domestic manufacturing PMI declined to 49.0%, a year - on - year decline of 2.2%, which is negative for the rubber and plastic single - side. The domestic real estate prosperity index has declined for 6 consecutive months, which is negative for the polyolefin single - side [5][6]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Most of the time, it is recommended to hold short - positions for the main 01 contracts of L and PP, and adjust the stop - loss points according to market changes. For example, on November 7, 2025, it was recommended to hold short - positions for the L main 01 contract, with the stop - loss point moved down to 6850 points [2]. - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Most of the time, it is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: Most of the time, it is recommended to wait and see.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for plastics L and PP has been showing a weak trend recently, with both futures and spot prices experiencing declines. The report provides daily market observations, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies for these two products [2][3][4]. - Various factors, including domestic and international economic data, industry policies, and corporate news, influence the prices of plastics L and PP. These factors can be either positive or negative, and the report assesses their impact on the market [3][5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The L2601 contract generally shows a downward trend, and the LLDPE market price is mostly weak, with prices in different regions fluctuating and some falling. Trade sentiment is often affected by futures trends, and downstream procurement is cautious [2][4][8]. - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP2601 contract also generally trends downward, and the domestic PP market is weak, with prices falling in parts. The futures trend impacts the spot market, and downstream procurement is limited [2][4][8]. Important News - **Industry - related Policies**: The government has introduced policies to support the development of the petrochemical and chemical industries, such as the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)" [29]. - **Corporate News**: Many companies have made progress, such as Guangxi Petrochemical's successful commissioning of a new ethylene plant, and Liaoyang Petrochemical's successful start - up of a nylon 66 project [4][46]. - **Economic and Trade News**: Global economic and trade policies, such as US tariff policies and China's export control policies for rare earths, have an impact on the market [34][40][63]. Logical Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Some factors are favorable for the polyolefin market, such as an increase in domestic vehicle production, a rise in the US manufacturing PMI, and an increase in the profit - to - loss ratio of the domestic rubber and plastics industry [9][51]. - **Negative Factors**: Other factors are unfavorable, including a decline in the domestic manufacturing PMI, an increase in inventory, and a decrease in the international shipping freight index ratio [3][5][41]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: For the most part, it is recommended to hold short positions in the L and PP main 01 contracts, with appropriate stop - loss settings. In some cases, there are suggestions to try short positions or hold long positions [3][5][9]. - **Arbitrage**: Generally, it is recommended to wait and see [3][5][9]. - **Options**: Usually, it is recommended to wait and see [3][5][9].

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report [2] Report Date - November 6, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The market for LLDPE and PP is expected to be volatile and weak today. For LLDPE, the fundamentals are generally neutral, with a supply - demand imbalance, and the industry inventory is moderately high. For PP, the fundamentals are also neutral, with an oversupply situation. Although there are factors such as the rebound of crude oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the easing of Sino - US relations, the overall market trend remains under pressure [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The demand in the agricultural film peak season continues, with high - level operations, while the restocking of other film types is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6830 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 16, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. With an oversupply in fundamentals, the Sino - US meeting in Busan, and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the industry inventory is moderately high [4] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the Sino - US meeting reaches a phased easing [5] - **Negative Factors**: The demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6500 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 9, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. With an oversupply in fundamentals, the Sino - US meeting in Busan, and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the industry inventory is moderately high [6] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the Sino - US meeting reaches a phased easing [7] - **Negative Factors**: The demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6830 (-50), the price of the 01 contract is 6814 (-65), the basis is 16, the import price in US dollars is 813 (unchanged), the import - converted price is 7124 (-1), and the import price difference is -294 (-49). The warehouse receipt is 12,669 (-6), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), and the social inventory is 510,000 tons (-18,000) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6500 (-50), the price of the 01 contract is 6491 (-69), the basis is 9, the import price in US dollars is 785 (unchanged), the import - converted price is 6884 (-1), and the import price difference is -384 (-49). The warehouse receipt is 14,629 (+60), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), and the social inventory is 333,000 tons (+13,000) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. The production capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 11.0% [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides daily observations and analyses of the plastic (L) and polypropylene (PP) markets, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. The market trends of L and PP are affected by various factors such as futures prices, factory prices, downstream demand, and macro - economic indicators. Different trading strategies are proposed based on these factors, including holding or trying long/short positions, and setting stop - loss points [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: In most cases, the L2601 contract showed small fluctuations, and the LLDPE market price had partial increases or decreases. Market trading sentiment was generally cautious, with downstream demand mainly based on orders. For example, on 25 - 11 - 04, the L2601 contract closed at 6859 points, down 29 points or - 0.42%, and the LLDPE market price continued to be weak [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP2601 contract also fluctuated slightly. The PP market price was mostly in a weak adjustment state, with some prices rising or falling. Downstream procurement was relatively cautious. For instance, on 25 - 11 - 04, the PP2601 contract closed at 6546 points, down 30 points or - 0.46%, and the PP market price was weakly sorted [1]. Important News - **Industry - related Policies**: The 7 - department issued the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in industry added value from 2025 to 2026 and promote high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [22]. - **Company - related Developments**: For example, Liaoyang Petrochemical's 100,000 - ton/year nylon 66 project was successfully put into operation, and the 40,000 - ton/year ultra - high - molecular weight polyethylene transformation project was advanced simultaneously [40]. Logical Analysis - **Positive Factors for Polyolefins**: Some factors were positive for polyolefins, such as the increase in domestic automobile daily sales index in September, the increase in the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index (business volume) in September, and the increase in domestic pipeline transportation industry fixed - asset investment completion in August [8][49][38]. - **Negative Factors for Polyolefins**: Some factors were negative, like the decrease in the Brent crude oil monthly average price in October, the decrease in the domestic real estate prosperity index in August, and the increase in the domestic automobile dealer inventory coefficient in September [32][49][38]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies included holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or taking a wait - and - see approach. For example, on 25 - 11 - 04, it was recommended to hold short positions in the L main 01 contract and set the stop - loss at 6890 points; for the PP main 01 contract, it was advisable to try short positions and set the stop - loss at 6580 points [2]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, it was recommended to take a wait - and - see approach, and in some cases, hold or reduce positions. For example, on 25 - 10 - 20, the L2601 - PP2601 (1 - hand to 1 - hand) spread was reported at + 314 points and was recommended to be held with the stop - loss set at + 311 points [41]. - **Options Trading**: In most cases, it was recommended to take a wait - and - see approach, and in some cases, sell and hold options with stop - loss settings [19].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by factors such as the rebound of crude oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations, while facing challenges like weak demand and new production capacity in the fourth quarter. For PP, similar factors are at play, with downstream peak - season demand providing some support [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the cost of polyolefins. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30, the US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended the 301 investigation measures in the maritime and logistics sectors for one year, while China adjusted counter - measures accordingly. In late October, the sanctions on Russian oil by the US and Europe were upgraded, leading to a rebound in oil prices. The peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, with high - level operations, and the restocking of other films is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6970 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 71, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 466,000 tons (-99,000), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, influenced by the Sino - US meeting in Busan, the upgrade of sanctions on Russian oil, the rebound of crude oil prices, the continued peak - season demand for agricultural films, and the neutral industrial inventory [4] - **Leveraging Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and a large number of new production capacity launches in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, along with domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The long - term "increasing supply and decreasing demand" pattern in crude oil persists, with limited cost support for polyolefins. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant policies were adjusted, and the sanctions on Russian oil led to a rebound in oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 595,000 tons (-43,000), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, affected by the Sino - US meeting, the upgrade of sanctions on Russian oil, the rebound of crude oil prices, the downstream peak - season demand support, and the relatively high - level neutral industrial inventory [6] - **Leveraging Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and a large number of new production capacity launches in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, along with domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6970 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6899 (-69), the basis is 71, the import price in US dollars is 813 (0), the import - converted price is 7107 (12), and the import price difference is - 137 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts is 12,706 (-39) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6630 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6590 (-61), the basis is 40, the import price in US dollars is 790 (0), the import - converted price is 6910 (11), and the import price difference is - 280 (-11). The number of warehouse receipts is 14,569 (0) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth trends. The production capacity has increased year by year, with a capacity growth rate of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has gradually decreased, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity has been increasing, with a capacity growth rate of 11.0% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [15]

Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated October 30, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium - long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. From October 25 - 26, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. In the supply - demand aspect, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed restocking and production has declined. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7020 (-20), with an overall neutral fundamental situation [4] Other Factors - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 11, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral. The PE comprehensive inventory is 466,000 tons (-114,000), also neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile rebound. Considering the preliminary consensus from China - US negotiations, new sanctions on Russian oil and the resulting crude oil rebound, the continued peak - season demand for agricultural films, and the neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will show a volatile and slightly bullish trend today [4] LLDPE Pros and Cons - **Likely to be Bullish**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [5] - **Likely to be Bearish**: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [5] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, in September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, with the manufacturing sentiment improved but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil persists, offering limited cost - side support. China - US economic and trade consultations reached a preliminary consensus, and new sanctions on Russian oil led to a rebound in oil prices. In terms of supply - demand, the peak season for plastic weaving supports demand, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), with an overall neutral fundamental situation [6] Other Factors - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 55, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.8%, showing a bearish trend. The PP comprehensive inventory is 595,000 tons (-84,000), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend. The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [6] Expectation - The PP main contract shows a volatile rebound. With the preliminary consensus from China - US negotiations, new sanctions on Russian oil and the crude oil rebound, the downstream peak - season demand support, and the neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will show a volatile and slightly bullish trend today [6] PP Pros and Cons - **Likely to be Bullish**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [7] - **Likely to be Bearish**: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [7] Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7020 (-20), the 01 - contract price is 7009 (+24), the import price in US dollars is 818 (0), the import - converted price is 7139 (-1), and the import price difference is - 119 (-19) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6630 (0), the 01 - contract price is 6685 (+28), the import price in US dollars is 795 (0), the import - converted price is 6942 (-1), and the import price difference is - 312 (+1) [8] Inventory - **LLDPE**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 466,000 tons (-114,000), including a warehouse receipt of 12,745 (0), a factory inventory of 466,000 tons (-99,000), and a social inventory of 527,000 tons (-18,000) [8] - **PP**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 595,000 tons (-84,000), including a warehouse receipt of 14,569 (-4), a factory inventory of 595,000 tons (-43,000), and a social inventory of 320,000 tons (-10,000) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. of polyethylene have shown certain trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [13] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical analysis, and trading strategies of L plastic and PP polypropylene from September 19 to October 29, 2025. It provides investment suggestions based on various factors such as price trends, supply and demand, and macro - economic indicators. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Prices showed partial fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price increases or decreases. Futures prices also fluctuated, affecting market sentiment and trading volume. For example, on October 29, L2601 closed at 6984 points, down 1 point or - 0.01% [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Market prices were mostly in a state of weak adjustment. Futures prices affected the spot market, and downstream demand was generally cautious. For instance, on October 29, PP2601 closed at 6664 points, up 7 points or + 0.11% [1]. Important Information - **Industry Policies**: The seven - department issued the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [8][53]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the first three quarters, China's industrial production grew rapidly, and enterprise efficiency improved. Some industries and products achieved growth, and the export of industrial products accelerated [4]. - **International Events**: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data, increasing the difficulty of decision - making for central banks in other countries [30]. Logical Analysis - **Supply - related Factors**: Factors such as production capacity utilization, net imports, and registered warehouse receipts affected the market. For example, as of August, the labor employment rate and resignation rate in the plastic products industry in Taiwan Province both increased, with the difference showing a narrowing increase, which was negative for polyolefin single - side trading [5]. - **Demand - related Factors**: Downstream demand, including the demand in the automotive, construction, and other industries, influenced the market. For example, the growth of the global plastic additive consumption was related to the output growth of plastic end - consumption fields [47]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: Macroeconomic indicators such as the EuroCoin index, PMI, and real estate data had an impact on the polyolefin market. For example, in September, the EuroCoin index strengthened for six consecutive months, which was positive for polyolefin single - side trading [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies included holding long or short positions, or taking a wait - and - see approach. For example, on October 29, it was recommended to reduce long positions in L and PP [1]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, a wait - and - see approach was recommended. For example, on October 29, it was suggested to wait and see for arbitrage trading [2]. - **Options Trading**: Some contracts were recommended for selling or holding, with stop - loss settings. For example, on October 29, it was recommended to sell and hold the L2601 put 6800 contract and set a stop - loss at the recent high of 34.5 points [2].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: October 28, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend today. This is due to the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US negotiations, the new round of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and the continuation of the peak demand season for agricultural films and support from downstream peak seasons [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. From October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply - demand side, the peak demand season for agricultural films continues with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed stocking and production has declined. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7020 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China - US talks; negative factors include weaker demand compared to the same period and more new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The cost support from crude oil is limited. The China - US talks reached a preliminary consensus, and new sanctions on Russian oil led to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply - demand side, the plastic weaving industry is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6630 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 69, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 63.9 million tons (-4.0), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors are the same as LLDPE; negative factors also include weaker demand compared to the same period and more new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15]