FXGT观察到，全球金融市场正处于高度紧张的观望阶段。随着美联储利率决议即将公布，美元走势持续承压，股票市场缺乏动能，而黄金则在避险买盘推 动下刷新纪录高位。这一局面凸显了市场对货币政策宽松的高度期待，以及资金在不确定环境下的重新配置。 美元指数在前一交易日大幅下挫，触及7月以来低点，随后仅微幅反弹至96.689。与此同时，欧元在前一日创下四年新高，市场对美联储转向宽松的押注明 显提振了欧元表现。FXGT表示，日元兑美元则维持相对稳定，反映出投资者对风险的分散配置倾向。 根据市场预期，美联储将在本次会议上宣布下调基准利率25个基点至4.00%-4.25%区间。然而，更关键的是主席鲍威尔的讲话，尤其是未来降息路径的指 引。FXGT分析认为，如果表态偏向鸽派，将进一步打压美元并推升贵金属价格；但若言辞谨慎，市场可能出现短期波动，美元与黄金的多头仓位都可能面 临调整。 值得注意的是，市场已经提前计入超过五次降息的预期，这意味着美联储即便释放宽松信号，也可能难以完全满足投资者的想象。正如部分机构指出，美元 的进一步下行空间或已受限，真正的焦点在于未来货币政策与实际经济数据之间的契合度。 股市方面，亚太地区主要股指普遍 ...

【导读】加拿大降息25个基点 大家好，今晚，降息之夜，加拿大也降息了，一起关注一下。 9月17日晚间，鉴于美国关税对经济和劳动力市场造成冲击，加拿大央行宣布降息，但对未来宽松路径保持缄默。降息幅度为25个基点，利率降至2.5%， 这是自3月份以来首次下调政策利率，符合市场和大多数经济学家的预期。 | 0 IIIIII BANK OF CANADA | | | | 搜索 | O 法国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | & BANQUE DU CANADA | | 关于我们 | | | 银行和您 职业发展 | | 核心功能 银行票据 | 市场 | 研究 按 统计数据 | 出版物 | | | | | | 我们不仅仅是一家银行。我们是加拿大的中央银行。 | | | | | 政策利率 | 总体CPI通胀 | CPI调整 | 3.0% | 2025年8月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2.5% | 1.9% | | | | | 2025年9月17日 | 2025年8月 | CPI中位数 | 3.1% | 2025年8月 | 相反， ...

Market Overview - On September 17, the A-share market opened lower but experienced a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3849 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34 points, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16% to 13215.446 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 24,032 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Strong performers included multi-financial, optical optoelectronics, photovoltaic equipment, and battery sectors, while precious metals, commercial retail, fertilizers, and tourism sectors lagged[3] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, with multi-financial and wind power equipment leading the increases[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.73 times and 49.46 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3][14] Policy and Economic Outlook - The State Council has emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery, with multiple favorable policies in place to support the market[3] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on structural policies[3] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid blind chasing of high prices, while looking for opportunities in sectors like multi-financial, optical optoelectronics, photovoltaic equipment, and batteries[3][14] - Continuous net inflows of global funds into the A-share market and a shift of household savings towards capital markets are creating a sustained source of incremental funds[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that investors are betting on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to fluctuations in gold and silver prices [1][2][3] - Spot gold first broke through $3700 per ounce but later experienced a short-term drop, ultimately closing up 0.29% at $3689.46 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver closed down 0.38% at $42.50 per ounce, reflecting the overall market sentiment influenced by monetary policy expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index fell, while economic data showed that U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in August, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, indicating strong consumer resilience [3] - The ongoing trade policy uncertainties, including agreements between the EU and Indonesia, proposed tariffs on auto parts by the U.S., and intensified trade negotiations between the U.S. and India, are supporting safe-haven demand for precious metals [3] - Market volatility is expected to increase around the Federal Reserve's policy statement, especially if the rate cut is accompanied by hawkish guidance or cautious signals regarding future policy [3] Group 3 - Overall, economic data has not changed the expectations for interest rate cuts, and ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainties suggest that gold and silver prices will likely maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short to medium term [4] - Technically, gold is expected to find support at $3600, with potential to challenge the $3800 level, while silver could target $45 if it stabilizes around the $43 mark [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surpassed $3,700 per ounce, reaching a historical high, driven by investor speculation on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Price Movement and Historical Context - As of the beginning of this week, gold prices have increased by over 40% year-to-date, marking the largest gain for the same period since 1979 [1] - The trajectory and magnitude of gold price increases over the past nine months resemble the bull market of 1979, which saw a 50% rise in the first nine months and a nearly 30% increase in the fourth quarter [1] - Historical patterns indicate that during periods of high inflation, the Federal Reserve often cuts interest rates, which tends to benefit gold prices [1] Group 2: Market Influences - Global trade uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and a surge in central bank gold purchases, along with inflows into gold ETFs, have contributed to the rising gold prices [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that if 1% of private holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds were to shift to gold, prices could approach $5,000 per ounce [1] - Following the Jackson Hole global central bank conference in August, gold prices have outperformed U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, the dollar, and oil [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Bank of America forecasts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026, citing that interest rate cuts may lead to long-term price pressures and increased stagflation risks, creating a favorable environment for gold [1]

智通财经APP获悉，在美联储即将作出决策之际，彭博美元现货指数已逼近2022年3月以来的最低水平，连续第三日下跌0.1%，市场正密切关注央行政策动 向及未来降息节奏指引。欧元与日元引领主要货币兑美元走强，交易员在等待美联储公告的同时，也在评估年内降息路径的更多细节。 市场参与者还将重点关注美联储公布的点阵图，该图表将反映政策制定者对未来数月货币政策宽松幅度的预测。 图2 图1 此次美联储自美东时间周二起召开为期两天的货币政策会议，背景是就业市场出现疲软迹象——8月就业增长明显放缓，失业率升至2021年以来最高水平， 加之上周修正数据显示，截至3月的年度就业增长远弱于此前预期，引发市场对劳动力市场加速恶化的担忧。 同时，美国总统特朗普持续施压要求降息，而美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的鸽派表态进一步强化了市场对降息的预期。 Monex分析师John Doyle指出，当前市场几乎每天都在消化美联储进一步降息的可能性，到年底累计降息75个基点已成为新的基准情景。 掉期市场交易员已完全计入今日降息25个基点的预期，降息50个基点的概率极低——即便周二公布的零售销售数据强于预期，也未动摇这一押注，仅暗示降 息幅度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in the deposit structure, indicating that residents' savings are moving towards non-bank financial institutions and equity markets, reflecting early signs of a "deposit migration" trend [1][4]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In August, non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan, while resident deposits rose by only 110 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 600 billion yuan [1]. - The growth rate of resident deposits in August was approximately 9.8%, marking a decline for two consecutive months, although it remains above the M2 growth rate by about 1 percentage point [2]. - The "scissors difference" between M1 and M2 continues to narrow, indicating an increase in the liquidity of funds [1][2]. Group 2: Market Implications - The shift in deposits is seen as a potential driver for increased investment in the stock market, with institutions suggesting that the current trend may lead to a more significant influx of funds into equity assets [2][4]. - The strong performance of the stock market in August, coupled with low deposit rates, is encouraging residents to reduce their savings in favor of other investments [4]. - The trend of residents moving funds from traditional savings to non-bank financial products and the stock market is expected to continue, especially if the equity market remains strong [5][4]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - Institutions are closely monitoring fiscal and monetary policy developments, as these will significantly influence the stability of social financing and the overall economic environment [6][8]. - The expectation of coordinated fiscal and monetary policy efforts may provide marginal support for the stability of social financing [8]. - The potential for further monetary easing, particularly in response to external economic pressures, is anticipated to impact the market dynamics moving forward [7][8].

Consumption Data - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from July, the lowest monthly growth rate this year[3] - Retail sales of goods and catering services showed a divergence, with growth rates of 3.6% and 2.1% respectively, indicating a decline in catering services compared to July[3] - The retail sales of durable goods saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points to 2.6%, the lowest since December 2024[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in August fell by 7.1% year-on-year, deepening by 1.8 percentage points, with all three major sectors showing weakness[4] - Real estate development investment saw a year-on-year decline of 19.5%, worsening by 2.5 percentage points[4] - Infrastructure investment also declined by 4.6% year-on-year, with significant drops in the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sectors[4] Real Estate Market - Residential sales area decreased by 9.7% year-on-year, worsening by 2.6 percentage points, while new construction area fell by 18.3%, a decline of 9.1 percentage points[5] - The completion area saw a slight narrowing of the decline to 28.8% year-on-year[5] - National new and second-hand residential prices fell by 0.3% and 0.6% month-on-month respectively, with first-tier cities experiencing a 1.0% drop in second-hand housing prices[5] Industrial Output - The industrial added value growth rate fell by 0.5 percentage points to 5.2% year-on-year, with mining, utilities, and manufacturing sectors showing varied performance[6] - The manufacturing sector remains in a high growth range despite the impact of "anti-involution" on upstream industrial products[6] Economic Outlook - The report highlights a continued cooling in consumption, investment, and the real estate market, with potential policy measures expected to stimulate the economy[6] - There is a focus on the possibility of increased fiscal expansion to boost consumption and effective investment, alongside potential monetary policy easing to stabilize real estate market expectations[6]

她表示，市场预期美联储将重启减息周期，料本周减0.25%，年底前再减0.25%，香港银行亦有机会跟 随减息。该批次银债保证息率3.85%，较去年的4%低0.15%，但仍较现时市场上1年期定期存款高出超过 1%，今批银债于未来3年能提供3.85%回报相当吸引。 智通财经APP获悉，9月15日，香港政府发行的第10批银色债券开始接受认购。中银香港个人金融产品 部副总经理梁淑怡表示，货币政策宽松的预期下，银债息率吸引，叠加2022年银债到期，到期资金或投 入新债。她估计今次的认购人数会多过上次的30万人，总认购额料超过700亿港元，而总发行额有机会 加码至550亿港元。 她估计，今次中签率与上次相若，建议客户认购25至30手，以增加中签机会。对于近期股市走好会否减 少银债吸引力，她认为，债券和股票属不同产品，股票价格相对波动，而银债防守性较强，并带来稳定 现金流，吸引力相当不错。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is at a significant turning point, with four major trends reshaping the livelihood landscape and influencing future national development [1] Group 1: Rural Revitalization - A "transportation revolution" is underway in rural China, with fixed asset investment growing by 4.8% in the first eight months of 2025, and infrastructure investment up by 5.3% [2] - The construction of 280,000 kilometers of new rural roads is expected to benefit 3,500 administrative villages and directly increase the income of 1.5 million rural residents [2] - The government has allocated 325 billion yuan for this initiative, a 21% increase from 2024, with 15,300 kilometers of rural roads already completed by the end of August [2][3] - Logistics costs in rural areas have decreased from 0.98 yuan per ton-kilometer in 2024 to 0.85 yuan in 2025, a reduction of 13.3%, leading to an estimated 8.5% increase in farmers' income [3] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is at a critical juncture, with new residential prices in 70 major cities declining by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year as of August 2025 [4] - The market has seen a 15.3% decrease in sales area in the first half of 2025, but signs of recovery are emerging, particularly in first-tier cities where new home sales increased by 6.8% in July [4] - The market concentration among the top 100 real estate companies has risen to 65.3%, with state-owned enterprises holding a 43.7% market share, acting as stabilizers [4] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has adopted a more accommodative monetary policy, lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in long-term funds [5] - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has been reduced by 10 basis points to 3.35%, the lowest since 2020, indicating a supportive environment for the real economy [5] - In August 2025, the social financing scale increased by 2.85 trillion yuan, with a notable 11.3% growth in medium- and long-term loans for enterprises, reflecting a recovery in investment confidence [5] Group 4: Consumption Trends - From January to August 2025, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.6%, with significant disparities across sectors [6] - Basic consumption, such as food and beverages, grew by 3.2%, while smart home appliances surged by 15.3%, and new consumption areas like smart wearables and electric vehicles saw growth rates of 28.5% and 22.6%, respectively [6][9] - Rural consumption is outpacing urban growth, with rural online shopping increasing by 18.3% in the first half of 2025, compared to 11.2% in urban areas, indicating a significant market potential [9]