李婷 棕榈油月报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 多重因素作用 棕榈油或延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国关税政策冲击市场后，主要经济体贸易谈判给市场释 放积极信号，美国经济韧性或仍在，美股持续走强，5月 非农数据超预期，降息时点或退后，特朗普施压美联储降 息，美元指数低位震荡运行，OPEC+预期增产的长期供应 压力在，油价或震荡运行。5月马棕油产量和库存预计增 加， ...

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister and former central bank governors are not planning an immediate response to the U.S. government's decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminum [1] - Ongoing discussions between Canadian and U.S. officials regarding trade relations are described as "in-depth" and are reportedly making progress [1] - The Canadian government will take time to consider how to respond to the recent increase in tariffs on foreign metals to 50% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices due to increased market risk aversion following President Trump's tariff announcements and growing concerns over U.S. debt sustainability [1][3] - Gold prices surged nearly 2% on Friday, with a weekly increase of nearly 5%, driven by safe-haven investments amid fears regarding U.S. fiscal challenges and trade relations [1] - Upcoming economic events, including the release of the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting minutes and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, are expected to influence market reactions and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that gold has successfully broken through resistance levels of 3250 and 3320, showing a clear upward trend, although it faces strong resistance around 3370 [6] - The current market is experiencing a corrective phase after previous highs, with potential for further upward movement if stimulated by upcoming news [6] - The expected market behavior for the following week suggests a continuation of the upward trend, with key resistance at 3370 and support at 3320 [6][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent surge in gold prices due to heightened market risk aversion following U.S. President Trump's tariff announcements, with gold prices increasing nearly 2% on Friday and a weekly gain of approximately 5% [1][2] - The significant rise in gold prices is attributed to growing concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade relations, which are expected to continue influencing market reactions [1][2] - Technical analysis indicates a strong bullish trend for gold, with key support levels identified at 3315 and resistance levels at 3370, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors [4][5] Group 2 - Upcoming economic data releases, including April durable goods orders and the PCE price index, are anticipated to impact market sentiment and gold prices, with a 27% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [2][5] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. Senate discussions on spending bills and trade negotiations with major partners, as any lack of progress could lead to further inflows into gold as a safe-haven asset [2][5] - The articles emphasize the importance of risk management and strategic trading approaches, advising investors to consider both short and long positions based on market conditions and technical indicators [5][6]

Macroeconomic Environment - The US CPI and core CPI growth rates in April were lower than expected, indicating that tariffs have not significantly pushed inflation upward [2] - Retail data in April showed a substantial slowdown, likely due to a decrease in preemptive purchases by households before tariff implementation [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to remain cautious, with market predictions for interest rate cuts reduced from three to two [2] - In Europe, officials indicated that US tariff policies could lead to greater recessionary pressures in the Eurozone, potentially allowing for further interest rate cuts [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's CPI growth rate in April was negative for the third consecutive month, primarily affected by oil prices, while core CPI remained stable [3] - The PPI decline was exacerbated by falling prices in downstream industries due to tariff impacts [3] - Financial data showed an increase in social financing in April, supported by government bond issuance and a decline in credit bond rates, although corporate and household credit demand remained weak [3] - The central bank emphasized a flexible monetary policy approach, focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties [3] High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions remained weak, while agricultural wholesale prices decreased [3] - Steel prices increased, but cement prices fell [3] - Upstream, coking coal and coke prices rose slightly, while non-ferrous metal prices generally increased [3] Fixed Income Market - The trade relationship has shown temporary easing, leading to upward pressure on interest rates [5] - In April, exports to the US saw a significant decline, but transshipment trade supported exports to ASEAN, which increased by 20.8% [6] - The central bank's net withdrawal of over 400 billion yuan did not prevent a decline in funding rates, with DR007 and DR001 falling to approximately 1.50% and 1.40% respectively [6] - The primary market saw 67 new bond issues totaling 946.4 billion yuan, with net financing of 658.7 billion yuan, indicating a higher than usual issuance pace [6] Market Outlook - The upcoming months may see a further manifestation of export rush effects, but domestic inflationary pressures are expected to remain limited [7] - The easing of large-scale policy expectations following positive developments in US-China talks may temper market sentiment [7] - The recent monetary policy adjustments are anticipated to lead to a downward shift in funding rate benchmarks, potentially limiting the rise in bond market yields [8]

Summary of GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC) - **Event**: BofA Healthcare Conference - **Date**: May 13, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Tariff Impact**: GEHC has been significantly affected by tariffs between the U.S. and China, with an estimated impact of approximately $0.85 per share, of which $0.65 is related to U.S.-China tariffs [5][12][14] - **Tariff Reduction**: The recent reduction in tariffs is viewed positively, with a potential benefit of about $0.40 per share if tariffs decrease by 100 basis points on both sides [8][12] - **Future Guidance**: The company plans to refresh its guidance in July, depending on the outcomes of ongoing trade negotiations [12][15] Financial Performance - **Q1 Results**: GEHC reported a record organic revenue growth of 4% and a 10% order growth in Q1, following a 6% order growth in Q4 [19][20][21] - **Regional Performance**: Strong performance in the U.S. imaging sector, while Europe showed signs of recovery with solid order growth despite a reported 0% revenue growth [22][23][25] - **China Market**: Anticipated low single-digit decline in China, with expectations for recovery in the second half of the year [24][49] Market Dynamics - **Hospital CapEx Environment**: The overall hospital capital expenditure environment remains robust, with no significant concerns about recession impacting buying behavior [27][28] - **Global Procedure Growth**: Continued healthy growth in global procedures, which is beneficial for the pharmaceutical diagnostic business [29] Future Outlook - **2026 Projections**: GEHC expects the tariff impact in 2026 to be less than $0.85 due to mitigating steps taken, including dual sourcing and local manufacturing [13][14] - **Order Momentum**: The company is optimistic about maintaining order momentum and achieving mid-single-digit growth in the coming years, particularly as new products are launched [39][55] Product Launch - **Vocado Launch**: The launch of Vocado is progressing well, with expectations to exceed $30 million in sales for the first year, contingent on successful execution of various operational elements [56][62][63] Additional Considerations - **Backlog and Book-to-Bill Ratio**: The company emphasizes the importance of backlog and book-to-bill ratios in assessing revenue potential, alongside order growth [44] - **Long-term Strategy**: GEHC is focused on innovation, commercial excellence, and digital initiatives to support long-term financial performance [43]

美国副总统万斯：如果欧洲国家能够取消贸易壁垒，我们与欧洲的贸易关系将会更加良好。 ...

Group 1 - Navarro claims that the UK has become "subservient" to attract Chinese investment and warns against deepening trade relations with China [1] - The UK government is concerned about Navarro's comments as they seek to strengthen trade and investment ties with both the EU and China while avoiding angering the White House [1][3] - The UK Labour government has been promoting communication with Beijing since winning the election, emphasizing the need for a stable and balanced relationship with China [1] Group 2 - A report indicates that by 2023, there are 970 companies in the UK owned by Chinese entities, creating over 59,000 jobs and generating more than £116 billion in revenue, highlighting the significant contribution of Chinese enterprises to the UK economy [3] - The UK government spokesperson asserts that the current administration will handle UK-China relations with a clear strategic vision, aiming for long-term prosperity without compromising economic and national security [3] - Commentary suggests that Navarro's remarks may indicate a deeper-rooted hostility from the US towards the UK and its European allies than previously acknowledged [3]

加拿大总理卡尼：与美国总统特朗普的会面将侧重于贸易关系和边境问题。 ...

Core Point - The European Union aims to increase the procurement of U.S. goods by €50 billion to address issues in trade relations [1] Group 1 - The EU's chief negotiator has indicated a desire to enhance trade ties with the U.S. by significantly increasing the volume of American goods purchased [1]