Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract rose 15.75 to close at 1058 cents per bushel, a 1.51% increase; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 42 to close at 3010 yuan per ton, a 1.42% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2820 yuan per ton, a 2.08% decrease; the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell 29 to close at 2608 yuan per ton, a 1.1% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 30 to close at 2460 yuan per ton, a 1.2% decrease [4]. - After the China - US presidential call, trade concerns eased, the market atmosphere improved, and US soybeans closed higher with weekly fluctuations. The US soybean sowing season is nearing its end and started well. Domestic oil mills' operating rates are at a high level, and soybeans and soybean meal are in an inventory - building rhythm, with supply becoming more abundant and spot prices under slight downward pressure. Boosted by trade sentiment, US soybeans rose. Coupled with the decline in Brazilian farmers' selling enthusiasm and the increase in premiums, the Dalian soybean meal contract fluctuated upwards. There is an expectation of improvement in China - Canada trade relations, and the rapeseed sector showed weakness due to sentiment, with rapeseed meal closing lower with fluctuations [4][7]. - The US soybean crop condition report shows a good start. The weather forecast indicates that overall precipitation in the production areas is higher than normal, but the central - western production areas are relatively dry, which may put pressure on regional crop growth. Continued attention should be paid to weather changes. After the China - US presidential call, trade sentiment improved, and further negotiation progress should be monitored. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously increasing, supply is becoming more abundant, and spot prices are still under pressure, limiting the upward range of the futures market. The far - month contracts are still strongly supported, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate slightly upwards in the short term. In addition, attention should be paid to the evolution of China - Canada trade relations and its potential impact on the rapeseed sector [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price on June 6 was 1058.00 cents per bushel, up 15.75 (1.51%) from May 30. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 447.00 dollars per ton, up 6.00 (1.36%); the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans was 457.00 dollars per ton, up 1.00 (0.22%). The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market was 81.71 yuan per ton, down 13.59 from the previous period. The DCE soybean meal 09 contract was 3010.00 yuan per ton, up 42 (1.42%); the CZCE rapeseed meal 09 contract was 2608.00 yuan per ton, down 29 (1.1%). The spot price of soybean meal in East China was 2840.00 yuan per ton, down 20 (0.70%); in South China, it was 2820.00 yuan per ton, down 60 (2.08%). The spot - futures price difference in South China was - 190.00 yuan per ton, down 102 from the previous period [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean sowing progress as of June 1, 2025, was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%. The emergence rate was 63%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. As of May 27, about 17% of the planting areas were affected by drought. The weekly export inspection volume as of May 29 was 26.83 tons, in line with expectations. The current - market - year export net sales increased by 19.4 tons. The cumulative export sales volume in the 2024/2025 season was 4865 tons, with a sales progress of 96.6%. The US soybean crushing volume in April was 607 million short tons, and the cumulative crushing volume from September 2024 to April 2025 was 4924 million short tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.94%. The crushing profit as of May 30 was 2.11 dollars per bushel, down 1% from the previous week [8][9]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybeans**: As of May 31, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 99.8%. The estimated soybean export volume in June was 1255 tons, lower than last year's 1383 tons. As of June 4, the Argentine soybean harvest progress was 88.7%, and the estimated 2024/2025 harvest was about 5000 tons [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 30, the inventory of major oil mills' soybeans was 582.88 tons, up 22.25 tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 29.8 tons, up 9.11 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 369.29 tons, up 33.89 tons. The national port soybean inventory was 705.4 tons, up 30.1 tons. As of June 6, the weekly average daily trading volume of national soybean meal was 11.94 tons (9.59 tons for spot and 2.35 tons for forward contracts), the average daily pick - up volume was 20.12 tons, the major oil mills' crushing volume was 224.46 tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 6.31 days [10][11]. Industry News - Strategic Grains significantly revised down the EU's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 1860 tons, lower than the April forecast of 1900 tons but about 11% higher than the 2024/2025 production. It also revised down the EU's 2025/26 sunflower seed and soybean production forecasts [12]. - The IMEA in Brazil's Mato Grosso state maintained its 2025/26 soybean planting area forecast at 1300.82 million hectares, up 1.67% from the previous year; the yield per unit area was expected to be 60.45 bags per hectare, down 8.81%; the production was expected to be 4718.44 tons, down 7.29% [13]. - As of June 1, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 263 tons, down from 324 tons last year; soybean imports were 1294 tons, up from 1213 tons; soybean meal imports were 1768 tons, up from 1408 tons; rapeseed imports were 640 tons, up from 519 tons [13]. - As of May 28, Argentine farmers sold 90.89 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 1787.65 tons. They also sold 2.71 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 12.84 tons [14]. - A commodity research institution maintained its 2025/26 Ukrainian rapeseed production forecast at 325 tons. The weather conditions in Ukraine have been mixed in the past two weeks, with the western region being cool and wet and the eastern region being warm and dry [15]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina indicated that the current - year soybean yield per unit area is developing better than expected, and the estimated 2024/25 soybean harvest is about 5000 tons and 4900 tons of corn [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, management fund CBOT net position, soybean meal futures and spot price trends, US soybean production area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean harvest progress, US soybean export - related data, US oil mill crushing profit, soybean meal trading and pick - up volume, and port and oil mill inventory data [16][17][18][21][35][36][40][43][47][49][53][54][55].

李婷 棕榈油月报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 多重因素作用 棕榈油或延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国关税政策冲击市场后，主要经济体贸易谈判给市场释 放积极信号，美国经济韧性或仍在，美股持续走强，5月 非农数据超预期，降息时点或退后，特朗普施压美联储降 息，美元指数低位震荡运行，OPEC+预期增产的长期供应 压力在，油价或震荡运行。5月马棕油产量和库存预计增 加， ...

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister and former central bank governors are not planning an immediate response to the U.S. government's decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminum [1] - Ongoing discussions between Canadian and U.S. officials regarding trade relations are described as "in-depth" and are reportedly making progress [1] - The Canadian government will take time to consider how to respond to the recent increase in tariffs on foreign metals to 50% [1]

新华财经纽约5月30日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价30 日收于每盎司3289.40美元，跌幅为0.84%。 美国经济分析局30日发布估算数据显示，美国4月个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）环比上涨0.1%。剔除 食品和能源后，核心PCE价格指数环比同样上涨0.1%。与去年同期相比，4月PCE价格指数上涨2.1%， 核心PCE价格指数同比上升2.5%。 当天发布的美国密歇根大学消费者调查显示，5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数为 52.2，与4月份的 52.2 持平，但是低于去年5月的69.1。 经济数据改善打压金价。但是尽管出现新的抛售压力，黄金价格守住了每盎司 3,300 美元上方的支撑 位。 美国总统特朗普当天在社交媒体上发文，表示在与中国贸易方面不会再作"好好先生"。特朗普言论令股 市多头感到不安，股指略有抛售。 美国联邦巡回上诉法院29日批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前做出的禁止执行特 朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。 联邦巡回上诉法院在裁决书中说，美国政府关于立即实施行政中止的请求已获批准，在本法院审议相关 动 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices due to increased market risk aversion following President Trump's tariff announcements and growing concerns over U.S. debt sustainability [1][3] - Gold prices surged nearly 2% on Friday, with a weekly increase of nearly 5%, driven by safe-haven investments amid fears regarding U.S. fiscal challenges and trade relations [1] - Upcoming economic events, including the release of the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting minutes and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, are expected to influence market reactions and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that gold has successfully broken through resistance levels of 3250 and 3320, showing a clear upward trend, although it faces strong resistance around 3370 [6] - The current market is experiencing a corrective phase after previous highs, with potential for further upward movement if stimulated by upcoming news [6] - The expected market behavior for the following week suggests a continuation of the upward trend, with key resistance at 3370 and support at 3320 [6][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent surge in gold prices due to heightened market risk aversion following U.S. President Trump's tariff announcements, with gold prices increasing nearly 2% on Friday and a weekly gain of approximately 5% [1][2] - The significant rise in gold prices is attributed to growing concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade relations, which are expected to continue influencing market reactions [1][2] - Technical analysis indicates a strong bullish trend for gold, with key support levels identified at 3315 and resistance levels at 3370, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors [4][5] Group 2 - Upcoming economic data releases, including April durable goods orders and the PCE price index, are anticipated to impact market sentiment and gold prices, with a 27% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [2][5] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. Senate discussions on spending bills and trade negotiations with major partners, as any lack of progress could lead to further inflows into gold as a safe-haven asset [2][5] - The articles emphasize the importance of risk management and strategic trading approaches, advising investors to consider both short and long positions based on market conditions and technical indicators [5][6]

Macroeconomic Environment - The US CPI and core CPI growth rates in April were lower than expected, indicating that tariffs have not significantly pushed inflation upward [2] - Retail data in April showed a substantial slowdown, likely due to a decrease in preemptive purchases by households before tariff implementation [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to remain cautious, with market predictions for interest rate cuts reduced from three to two [2] - In Europe, officials indicated that US tariff policies could lead to greater recessionary pressures in the Eurozone, potentially allowing for further interest rate cuts [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's CPI growth rate in April was negative for the third consecutive month, primarily affected by oil prices, while core CPI remained stable [3] - The PPI decline was exacerbated by falling prices in downstream industries due to tariff impacts [3] - Financial data showed an increase in social financing in April, supported by government bond issuance and a decline in credit bond rates, although corporate and household credit demand remained weak [3] - The central bank emphasized a flexible monetary policy approach, focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties [3] High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions remained weak, while agricultural wholesale prices decreased [3] - Steel prices increased, but cement prices fell [3] - Upstream, coking coal and coke prices rose slightly, while non-ferrous metal prices generally increased [3] Fixed Income Market - The trade relationship has shown temporary easing, leading to upward pressure on interest rates [5] - In April, exports to the US saw a significant decline, but transshipment trade supported exports to ASEAN, which increased by 20.8% [6] - The central bank's net withdrawal of over 400 billion yuan did not prevent a decline in funding rates, with DR007 and DR001 falling to approximately 1.50% and 1.40% respectively [6] - The primary market saw 67 new bond issues totaling 946.4 billion yuan, with net financing of 658.7 billion yuan, indicating a higher than usual issuance pace [6] Market Outlook - The upcoming months may see a further manifestation of export rush effects, but domestic inflationary pressures are expected to remain limited [7] - The easing of large-scale policy expectations following positive developments in US-China talks may temper market sentiment [7] - The recent monetary policy adjustments are anticipated to lead to a downward shift in funding rate benchmarks, potentially limiting the rise in bond market yields [8]

Summary of GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC) - **Event**: BofA Healthcare Conference - **Date**: May 13, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Tariff Impact**: GEHC has been significantly affected by tariffs between the U.S. and China, with an estimated impact of approximately $0.85 per share, of which $0.65 is related to U.S.-China tariffs [5][12][14] - **Tariff Reduction**: The recent reduction in tariffs is viewed positively, with a potential benefit of about $0.40 per share if tariffs decrease by 100 basis points on both sides [8][12] - **Future Guidance**: The company plans to refresh its guidance in July, depending on the outcomes of ongoing trade negotiations [12][15] Financial Performance - **Q1 Results**: GEHC reported a record organic revenue growth of 4% and a 10% order growth in Q1, following a 6% order growth in Q4 [19][20][21] - **Regional Performance**: Strong performance in the U.S. imaging sector, while Europe showed signs of recovery with solid order growth despite a reported 0% revenue growth [22][23][25] - **China Market**: Anticipated low single-digit decline in China, with expectations for recovery in the second half of the year [24][49] Market Dynamics - **Hospital CapEx Environment**: The overall hospital capital expenditure environment remains robust, with no significant concerns about recession impacting buying behavior [27][28] - **Global Procedure Growth**: Continued healthy growth in global procedures, which is beneficial for the pharmaceutical diagnostic business [29] Future Outlook - **2026 Projections**: GEHC expects the tariff impact in 2026 to be less than $0.85 due to mitigating steps taken, including dual sourcing and local manufacturing [13][14] - **Order Momentum**: The company is optimistic about maintaining order momentum and achieving mid-single-digit growth in the coming years, particularly as new products are launched [39][55] Product Launch - **Vocado Launch**: The launch of Vocado is progressing well, with expectations to exceed $30 million in sales for the first year, contingent on successful execution of various operational elements [56][62][63] Additional Considerations - **Backlog and Book-to-Bill Ratio**: The company emphasizes the importance of backlog and book-to-bill ratios in assessing revenue potential, alongside order growth [44] - **Long-term Strategy**: GEHC is focused on innovation, commercial excellence, and digital initiatives to support long-term financial performance [43]

美国副总统万斯：如果欧洲国家能够取消贸易壁垒，我们与欧洲的贸易关系将会更加良好。 ...