Group 1: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement, reducing the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion and open its agricultural market [1] - Following the announcement, Japan's Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices rose approximately 2.7%, reaching their highest levels since July 2024, with significant gains in the automotive sector [3] - The Philippines also reached a trade agreement with the US, with tariffs set at 19%, lower than the previously threatened 20% [1] Group 2: Political Developments in Japan - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to announce his resignation by the end of August, following the ruling coalition's loss of majority seats in the recent Senate elections [1][5] - The political uncertainty in Japan may lead to increased volatility in the market, affecting investor confidence and complicating the policy environment [5] - The election results could influence Japan's fiscal policy direction, with opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and the ruling coalition favoring fiscal discipline [5] Group 3: Bond Market Reactions - Japanese government bond yields have risen across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 0.8%, and the 10-year yield rising by 8 basis points to 1.58% [4] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are driving the bond market, with predictions of further yield increases if populist parties push for tax reductions [6] Group 4: Broader Market Trends in Asia - Other Asian markets also experienced gains, with South Korea's KOSPI index rising 0.62% and significant increases in automotive stocks [7] - Vietnam's stock market has shown strong performance, with a 19% increase this year, driven by optimism from recent trade agreements and significant economic reforms [8]

Group 1 - The United States and Indonesia have reached a trade agreement, with the U.S. imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods [1] - Indonesia will supply critical minerals to the U.S. as part of the agreement [1] - Indonesia will eliminate 99% of its tariff barriers in the trade deal [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price is currently trading around $3384.89, with a slight decline of 0.28% as of the latest report, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - The highest price reached was $3402.43, while the lowest was $3384.89 during the trading session [1] - Market uncertainty surrounding the upcoming August 1 tariff deadline is providing strong support for gold prices [2] Group 2 - The EU is preparing a series of countermeasures in response to potential trade negotiations with the U.S., highlighting the challenges in reaching a fair trade agreement [2] - Recent trading sessions have shown a strong upward momentum in gold prices, breaking through previous resistance levels, which may indicate a continuation of the trend [3] - Key technical levels to watch include support at $3375 and resistance at the psychological level of $3400, with a critical pivot point at $3370 [3]

美国白宫：特朗普继续参与贸易协定谈判。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose to a one-week high, closing at $9,778.50 per ton, up $112.00 or 1.16% due to increased investor risk appetite and bargain buying [1][2] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up 2.00% to $2,629.50, zinc up 2.98% to $2,818.50, and lead up 1.88% to $2,010.00 [2] - BHP Group reported a slight increase in copper production for the fourth quarter, reaching 516,200 tons, up 2.25% year-on-year, and an annual copper production of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year [4] Group 2 - Analysts noted that U.S. economic data has improved, boosting hopes for better copper demand and reducing the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts [4] - LME copper inventories have been rising, particularly in Asian warehouses, as some traders bet on increased buying following recent price declines, though uncertainty remains about whether this will materialize [4] - Peru's copper production fell by 4.6% year-on-year in May, totaling 220,849 tons, highlighting challenges in one of the world's largest copper-producing countries [5] Group 3 - Nickel prices underperformed due to rising inventories and weak demand, with Commerzbank lowering its nickel price forecast for the end of 2025 from $18,000 to $16,000 per ton [6] - Three-month aluminum reached a three-week high of $2,637 per ton, reflecting positive market sentiment [7]

特朗普日前致信日本领导人，称将从8月1日起对从日本进口商品征收25%的关税。 据央视新闻援引外媒报道，美国总统特朗普16日表示，美国可能会按照此前致信内容来执行对日本 的关税税率，并可能很快与印度达成贸易协定。 ...

越南宣布谈判代表将继续与美国就贸易协定进行讨论。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Most of the industries in the report are rated as "oscillating", with the exception of the log industry which is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the sugar industry which is expected to "oscillate weakly" in the long - term and "oscillate" in the short - term [7][8][9][10][12][14][16][17][18]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related industries, finding that most industries are currently in an oscillating state. Some industries face supply - demand imbalances, such as the oversupply in the hog industry; others are affected by factors like weather, policies, and trade relations, such as the possible weather - related speculation in natural rubber and the impact of trade agreements on protein meal [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Oscillating and differentiating, with soybean and rapeseed oils oscillating strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Good growth of US soybeans, a decrease in US soybean oil inventory, an increase in the expected demand for soybean oil in biodiesel, and the Brazilian biodiesel blending ratio increase. However, there is also pressure from the increase in palm oil production and the high inventory of domestic rapeseed oil [7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Due to the signing of the Sino - Australian trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal oscillated and slightly declined. - **Logic**: Abroad, the growth of US soybeans is smooth, but the export prospects are worrying; Brazil's exports are still high. Domestically, the signing of the Sino - Australian memorandum implies new Australian seed imports, with supply pressure leading to weak spot prices, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be strong in the long - term [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot transactions are light, and futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. On the spot side, supply at ports and deep - processing plants decreased, and there were price adjustments at some deep - processing plants. Deep - processing production and consumption data changed slightly, and there is a risk of supply shortage before the new grain is listed in large quantities [9][10]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Upstream slaughtering puts pressure on hog prices. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded, and farmers are still reluctant to sell standard hogs. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and there is room for an increase in hog slaughter in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the current production capacity is still high. The demand for pork has increased week - on - week, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market has positive sentiment, but in the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure in the third quarter [1][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the expected increase is limited. - **Logic**: The rubber price rose rapidly at the end of trading yesterday, possibly due to weather - related speculation about a typhoon landing in Hainan Island or external capital. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are currently stable. The supply is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable [12][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The futures price followed the commodity adjustment and then rebounded due to the impact of natural rubber. The upward driving force is not obvious, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement in butadiene trading. It is expected to oscillate within a range [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices increased with increased positions, breaking through the 14,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, the cotton market is loose, and the new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase in production. The demand is in the off - season, but the current commercial inventory is low. Yesterday, the futures price increased with increased positions, but there are multiple factors restricting further increases, and there is a risk of decline when new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected supply surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazilian sugar production and high domestic sales rates support sugar prices, but the increase in Brazilian production and exports and domestic imports will increase supply pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The trend is dominated by the macro - environment, with a stalemate - type fluctuation. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the supply - demand relationship is in a stalemate. The upward driving force comes from the macro - environment, but there is pressure at 5200 - 5300 yuan. In the short - term, there is a slight rebound space, and in the medium - term, there may be a phased increase, but the height is limited [17]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: There are few fundamental contradictions, and the short - term futures price oscillates. - **Logic**: Spot prices are weak due to the impact of delivery products, and the cost of importers has increased. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand is stable, and the market is in the bottom - building stage. There is no clear driving force for upward or downward movement in the short - term [18][19].

Group 1 - The South Korean government is considering making "strategic concessions" on certain agricultural import restrictions in negotiations with the U.S. to secure a broader trade agreement [1][2] - The U.S. is pressuring South Korea to expand imports of American energy and agricultural products while removing non-tariff barriers that hinder U.S. exports [1] - Specific U.S. demands include relaxing import restrictions on U.S. beef over 30 months old, expanding rice import quotas, allowing genetically modified potatoes, and easing quarantine procedures for fruits like apples and blueberries [1][2] Group 2 - Domestic reactions in South Korea include strong opposition from farmers' groups, who feel that the government is sacrificing the agricultural sector [2] - Local councils in South Korea have passed resolutions opposing the government's consideration of easing restrictions on U.S. apples, highlighting the ongoing tension in agricultural negotiations [2] - The long-standing debate over agricultural imports has seen the U.S. criticize South Korea for maintaining market access and quarantine restrictions, which are viewed as non-tariff barriers [2] Group 3 - The implementation of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has primarily benefited large export enterprises, leaving informal workers, small farmers, and local industries at a disadvantage [3] - The current government is urged to not only negotiate favorable terms but also to plan for the impacts on vulnerable groups post-negotiation to ensure fair and sustainable trade policies [3]

金十数据7月14日讯，欧盟高级官员表示，欧盟正寻求深化与印度和亚太地区其他国家的贸易协定。欧 盟竞争事务主管Teresa Ribera周一说："我们需要探索在太平洋地区与其他国家的合作能走多远、走多 深，比如与印度正在进行的这些对话就相当重要。"她指的是与印度的自由贸易谈判预计将在年底前完 成。此番言论正值特朗普在关税谈判最后阶段加大施压力度之际。Ribera暗示欧盟将继续谈判，但若关 税真正落地，集团将全力开拓其他市场。 欧盟官员称将深化与亚洲国家的贸易协议以应对美国关税 ...