Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in new individual investor accounts in the A-share market, with July 2025 seeing a 71% year-on-year growth compared to July 2024, indicating a strong market recovery and investor confidence [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections New Account Growth - In July 2025, the number of new individual investor accounts reached 1.96 million, with 1.954 million from individual investors and 9,600 from institutional investors, marking a 71% increase from 1.15 million in July 2024 [4][6]. - The new account numbers in July 2025 surpassed most monthly figures from 2024, reflecting a robust market environment [4]. Monthly Account Data - Monthly new account data for 2025 shows fluctuations, with January at 1.57 million, February at 2.84 million, and March exceeding 3 million. A notable decline occurred in April due to market volatility, with a 37.22% drop, followed by a recovery in June and a 19.27% increase in July [2][5]. Market Performance - The A-share market experienced strong performance in July, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.20%, and the ChiNext Index by 8.14%, contributing to heightened investor enthusiasm and increased account openings [6]. Internet Influence - The collaboration between brokerage firms and internet platforms has been pivotal in driving account growth, particularly among younger investors, who are expected to influence market dynamics significantly [8]. Broker Performance - Many brokerage firms reported positive growth in account numbers in their 2024 annual reports, with some experiencing increases exceeding 90%. This growth is closely tied to market performance and investor sentiment [9]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term market volatility may increase due to funding dynamics, the long-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, focusing on economic structural transformation and industry trends [9].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Economic Growth Target**: China's economic growth target for 2025 is maintained at 5%, with a growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year. The fiscal easing policy will continue in the second half, but the impact on nominal GDP and PPI may be limited due to moderate demand-side policies [1][3][4]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market is showing signs of weakness, with significant inventory pressure despite some recovery in transaction volumes in core cities. The need to stabilize buyer expectations and improve product quality is emphasized [2][38][39]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Trade Relations**: The U.S.-China trade negotiations have been postponed, with a slightly hawkish stance from the U.S. The introduction of secondary tariffs on imported goose oil has caused market fluctuations, indicating ongoing sensitivity to trade tensions [1][6]. - **Policy Outlook**: The political bureau meeting expressed optimism about the economic situation, emphasizing policy coherence and stability. Incremental policies may become evident in Q4, focusing on improving fund efficiency [1][12][19]. - **Demand-Side Policies**: Demand-side policies are present but are less systematic compared to supply-side reforms. The impact on PPI and GDP is expected to be moderate [5][7][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Capital Market Sentiment**: The capital market is expected to be more attractive and inclusive, with potential adjustments in IPO thresholds and margin trading data. Structural opportunities are highlighted despite a lack of clear performance drivers [1][23][28]. - **Real Estate Challenges**: The real estate market faces challenges such as high inventory levels and declining prices, with a significant inventory of nearly 500 million square meters in 80 key cities, leading to a de-stocking cycle of about 28 months [39][40]. - **Future Planning**: The upcoming five-year plan will dominate macroeconomic policy, focusing on high-level security and quality development, with energy, electricity, national security, and technological independence as key indicators [1][19]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Real Estate**: The market is stabilizing, but the pressure from inventory remains high. Core cities are showing some recovery, but overall, the market needs to address buyer confidence and product quality [38][41][42]. - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector is expected to recover faster than real estate, with policies aimed at enhancing service consumption. The focus is on stable ROE and dividend yields in consumer and financial sectors [32][36]. - **Technology Sector**: The technology sector remains crucial, with strong support policies and potential for growth in areas like AI and cloud computing. The sector is seen as undervalued compared to global peers [31][37]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, with specific attention to the real estate market's challenges and the potential for recovery in consumer and technology sectors. The emphasis on policy stability and structural opportunities in the capital market suggests a strategic approach to navigating the current economic landscape.

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses macroeconomic policies and their implications for various sectors, particularly focusing on the Chinese economy and its policy adjustments. Core Points and Arguments 1. The recent Politburo meeting emphasized the need for a balance between short-term and long-term economic strategies, indicating a cautious approach to policy adjustments that may not meet market expectations [2][12] 2. The focus of short-term policies is on maintaining a bottom-line thinking approach, with an emphasis on existing policies rather than introducing new measures [2][12] 3. There is a notable shift towards supporting service consumption as a new growth point, moving away from a focus on goods consumption [4][5][18] 4. The meeting highlighted the importance of nurturing new service consumption sectors, suggesting potential future policy support in this area [5][18] 5. The government is expected to continue promoting urban renewal and efficiency in existing systems rather than expanding new projects, indicating a transition from an expansionary phase to a focus on optimizing current resources [7][12] 6. The tone of the meeting suggested a more lenient approach towards industries previously considered weak, with a shift from strict capacity exit policies to governance of existing capacities [9][10] 7. The meeting also addressed the need for improved efficiency in fiscal policies, particularly in managing local government investments to avoid ineffective projects [10][11] 8. The PMI data for July showed a decline in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, indicating weakening demand, which may influence future policy decisions [14][15][16] 9. The service sector's performance in July was below expectations, reflecting broader economic challenges, particularly in consumer spending [17][18] 10. The overall sentiment from the meeting suggests that while current policies are focused on maintaining stability, there may be room for additional measures if economic indicators continue to weaken [19][20] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The meeting indicated that the government is still in the process of implementing previously announced policies, with no immediate plans for new stimulus measures [19] 2. The discussion around the service sector highlighted the impact of real estate on consumer spending, suggesting that recovery in this area is crucial for overall economic health [17][18] 3. The potential for future policy adjustments will depend on the performance of key economic indicators in the coming months, particularly in August [19]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced that starting from August 8, value-added tax will be reinstated on interest income from newly issued government bonds [1] - The People's Bank of China expressed its commitment to support the stable operation of the capital market and optimize the use of two policy tools related to capital market support [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will closely monitor stocks with abnormal fluctuations, including ST Yazhen and others, indicating heightened scrutiny on market volatility [1] Group 2 - In the United States, non-farm employment increased by 73,000 in July, which was below the expected increase of 110,000 [1]

Group 1 - The futures market is the largest trading market globally, surpassing even the foreign exchange market in terms of transaction value, making it the "king" of financial products [1] - The article discusses the surface and essence of futures, their characteristics, and how they are utilized in the capital market [1]

Group 1: Chinese Stock and Equity-Linked Issuance - In the first half of 2025, Chinese companies raised a total of $56.6 billion in global capital markets through stock and equity-linked transactions, marking a 110% year-on-year increase and a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The number of issuances increased by 30% compared to the same period in 2024, totaling 244 transactions, with a 15% increase in the second quarter compared to the first quarter [1] - Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) totaled $8.36 billion, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase and a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - Follow-on offerings raised $35.49 billion, showing a 300% year-on-year increase and a 16% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - Convertible bonds and equity-linked issuances amounted to $12.75 billion, with a 4% year-on-year increase and a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - The industrial sector led with a 23% market share, raising $13.38 billion, which is a 206% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - Other sectors following the industrial sector include high technology, energy and power, healthcare, and telecommunications [3] Group 3: Underwriters and Legal Advisors - Goldman Sachs ranked first among underwriters for Chinese stock and equity-linked issuances in 2025 [6] - The top underwriters by issuance amount include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, CITIC Securities, and CICC [7] - Jingtian Gongcheng Law Firm ranked first among legal advisors for Chinese stock and equity-linked issuances [9] Group 4: Chinese Bond Market - The issuance of RMB bonds increased by 35% year-on-year, with a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter of 2025 [11] - Panda bond issuance decreased by 7% year-on-year but increased by 44% quarter-on-quarter [12] - In the first half of 2025, government and institutional bond issuance reached approximately 7.8 trillion RMB, accounting for 52% of the market share, with a 55% year-on-year increase [14] - CITIC Securities led the RMB bond underwriting rankings, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China ranked first in Panda bond underwriting [17] Group 5: Syndicated Loans - Bank of China led the rankings for all currency syndicated and club loans as well as for all currency loan bookrunners [23] - The total amount of syndicated and club loans decreased by 35% year-on-year [24] - The market share for Bank of China in all currency loans was 62.3%, with a slight increase of 0.8% compared to the previous year [24]

■苏向杲 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议。会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。 今年以来，在更加积极有为的宏观政策推动下，我国经济展现出强大活力和韧性。上半年，国内生产总值同比增长5.3%， 内需对经济增长贡献率达68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，成为增长的主动力和稳定锚。经济结构持续优化，高技术 产业增加值同比增长9.5%。 总之，中共中央政治局会议的最新定调，为下半年乃至更长远的发展锚定了方向。我们有理由相信，在这些系统性、前瞻 性举措的共同作用下，我国经济的回升向好势头将持续巩固，内生动力将不断增强，为实现全年经济社会发展目标奠定更为坚 实的基础。 此次中共中央政治局会议强调，"加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层'三保'底线"。未来，随着超长期 特别国债、地方政府专项债券等工具的加快发行和使用，财政政策将在促消费扩内需、支持传统产业改造提升、促进新兴产业 和未来产业发展壮大以及保障民生等领域发挥更为重要的作用，这均有助于增强经济韧性。 其二，适度宽松的货币政策将进一步增强经济活力。 今年以来，我国货币政策 ...

今年以来，我国货币政策根据形势变化相机抉择，节奏和力度适时适度，在推动扩大国内需求、稳定社 会预期、激发市场活力，支持实现全年经济社会发展目标和任务方面发挥了巨大作用。 今年以来，在更加积极有为的宏观政策推动下，我国经济展现出强大活力和韧性。上半年，国内生产总 值同比增长5.3%，内需对经济增长贡献率达68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，成为增长的主动 力和稳定锚。经济结构持续优化，高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%。 从经济理论和实践经验看，宏观政策的传导是需要时间的，已实施措施的效果还会进一步显现。与此同 时，中共中央政治局会议强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性"，这意味着未来政策效应将 进一步释放，从而更好巩固宏观经济的回升向好势头。 其一，更加积极的财政政策将进一步增强经济韧性。 今年以来，财政政策综合运用超长期特别国债、政府债券、财政补贴、贷款贴息等工具，通过与其他宏 观政策协同发力，在支持全方位扩大国内需求、畅通经济循环、推进现代化产业体系建设、保障和改善 民生、防范化解地方政府债务风险等领域发挥了十分重要的作用。 此次中共中央政治局会议强调，"加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuation of a stable yet progressive macroeconomic policy, focusing on maintaining policy stability while enhancing flexibility and timely adjustments to stimulate economic recovery [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy aims for detailed implementation, emphasizing structural optimization, with a focus on enhancing social welfare and targeted spending for specific groups [4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of long-term special bonds, with net financing reaching 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4]. Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential interest rate cuts to lower overall financing costs for society [5]. - The central bank has already implemented a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio reduction, with further easing expected [5]. Industry Policy - The industry policy focuses on fostering technological innovation and promoting healthy competition, with an emphasis on emerging industries and strategic sectors [6][8]. - Key areas for support include quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology, with a push for collaboration between research institutions and enterprises [6]. Real Estate Policy - The real estate policy highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal and managing local government debt risks, with a focus on stabilizing the housing market [9]. - Recent data shows a decline in property sales, with June's sales area and revenue down by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively [9]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The strategy for expanding domestic demand involves enhancing both consumption scenarios and consumer capacity, with potential policies to optimize social security contributions and tax structures [11][12]. - Recent retail sales data indicates a 4.8% year-on-year growth, but a decline in consumer confidence remains a concern [11]. Employment and Social Welfare - The employment policy prioritizes job creation for key demographics, including recent graduates and migrant workers, while ensuring social safety nets are in place [13]. - The approach combines development with safety nets to stabilize society and rebuild consumer confidence [13]. Capital Market - The capital market is encouraged to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity, with recent positive performance in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [14]. - The government has introduced various supportive measures to stabilize and invigorate the capital market, including optimizing monetary policy tools [14]. High-Level Opening Up - The policy aims to maintain a stable foundation for foreign trade and investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises and promote integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [15]. - The focus is on enhancing the resilience of enterprises and the support capabilities of open platforms in a complex external environment [15].

政策连续，兼顾长短 [Table_Authors] 黄汝南(分析师) ——2025 年 7 月政治局会议点评 本报告导读： 政策依旧留有后手，密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化，以及"十五 五"规划中确定性的产业线索。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定 2025 年 10 月召开中共 四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划的建议，并分析研究当前经济形 势和部署下半年经济工作。总的来看有三个特征：一是对内外部形 势的判断相较 4 月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下 半年有望迎来"适时加力"的窗口期；三是适逢"十五五"规划起草在 即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。与 2020 年 7 月政治局会 议对"十四五"的相关表述相比，亮点是增加了"推动人的全面发展、 全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐"的表述，这与此前强调的"投资于 人"一脉相承。 从对下半年工作的具体部署来看，有以下几个亮点： huangrunan@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880523080001 证 券 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.30 20 ...