在11月13日举行的太湖世界文化论坛.钱塘对话上，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长、国务院发展研究 中心原副主任王一鸣表示，新一轮科技革命在加速突破，人工智能是核心驱动力，带来了广泛的各领域 的深刻的变革和创新。 他进一步表示，在现有的以商业银行为主导的金融体系下，可以加强与风投机构等金融机构合作，对投 资机构通过净值调查意向投资的科创企业、专精特新企业相应地提供贷款。 同时，王一鸣表示，要大力发展并购市场，鼓励设立市场化的并购基金，来解决创投机构的退出问题。 此外，王一鸣表示，要加强科技对金融服务的赋能，利用人工智能、机器学习来构建智能的风控模型， 动态评估企业的信用风险，降低金融机构的决策成本和决策风险，通过智能投顾为企业提供定制化的投 融资方案，优化资金的使用效率等。 要借助智能技术来构建动态的信用画像提升金融机构的风险识别能力，同时要建立有效的风险的分担和 补偿机制，比如通过保险和再保险，为科技型企业融资实行风险分担；要探索地方政府对科创企业征信 和风险的补偿机制。 "我们要把握主动权就要加强原始创新和关键核心技术攻关，通过科创和产业创新的深度融合。"王一鸣 说，未来，要推动三个转变：从过去的跟跑转向更多 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a loose monetary policy, moving away from "flood irrigation" strategies, with a focus on direct financing and an upgraded policy toolkit for interest rates, exchange rates, and risk management [3][4]. Economic Performance - GDP growth for the first three quarters stands at 5.2%, with final consumption contributing 53.8% to economic growth, surpassing investment [5][10]. - High-tech manufacturing value added increased by 9.7%, with significant growth in industrial robots, 3D printing equipment, and new energy vehicles [5][10]. - Core CPI has rebounded to 1%, indicating potential price stabilization [5][10]. Monetary Supply and Financing - M2 growth is at 8.4% and social financing at 8.7%, both exceeding nominal GDP growth, leading to a passive increase in macro leverage [5][10]. - The proportion of RMB loans in social financing has dropped below 50% for the first time, indicating a shift towards direct financing methods [5][10]. Interest Rates - The average interest rate for new corporate loans is 3.24%, while personal housing loans are at 3.06%, both showing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 40 basis points [7][8]. - If the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decreases by another 20 basis points next year, corporate loan rates may fall below 3% [7][8]. Exchange Rate Management - The RMB/USD exchange rate reached a low of 7.1055, with a 4.63% depreciation in the CFETS index, yet cross-border capital flows remain stable [9][10]. - The PBOC has implemented measures to stabilize the exchange rate, indicating a policy floor around 7.1 [9][10]. Credit Structure Optimization - Credit allocation has focused on strategic sectors, with significant growth in loans for technology (11.8%), green projects (22.9%), and the elderly care industry (58.2%) [10][13]. - Long-term loans constitute about 67% of RMB loans, with a notable emphasis on supporting real enterprises [13][14]. Risk Management in Financial Institutions - The report emphasizes the need for orderly risk resolution in small and medium-sized financial institutions, promoting reforms and potential mergers [14][15]. Market Outlook - The report suggests a shift in China's financial engine from credit-driven to capital-driven growth, indicating a new set of rules for wealth preservation and appreciation for investors [15][16].

● 本报记者 李嫒嫒 11月8日，2025厦门产业发展大会暨金圆集团杯·上市公司（港股）金牛奖颁奖典礼在厦门举办。国务院 发展研究中心原党组书记马建堂表示，加快发展功能完善的资本市场，是培育新质生产力的关键支撑。 要打通创投市场中"募投管退"四个环节，借助多元化金融工具精准匹配企业不同生命周期的融资需求， 助力科创企业落地生根、开花结果、发展壮大。 一要打通"募投管退"四个环节，尤其畅通退出渠道，稳住创投市场。近几年，受多因素影响，我国创投 市场面临较为严峻的环境，从募的环节来看，募集资金规模在减少。同时，受退出渠道不畅等因素影 响，风险投资项目的数量也在减少。 创投基金的生命在于转动，其投资的逻辑并非长期持有，而在于"投资-培育-退出"的价值循环，如果退 出通道不通畅，会极大制约创投基金的运作。 二要改革政府性或国有创投基金管理理念和模式。风险投资、创业投资的本质是通过分散投资来捕捉高 成长项目，具有风险性。然而，当前政府及国有创投基金普遍存在风险容忍度低、考核周期过短、强调 短期资产保值等问题。因此要转变其管理模式，适当延长业绩考核周期，树立宽容失败理念，坚持风险 投资属性，敢于"投早、投小、投长期、投硬 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market is in a phase of shock digestion, but the medium - term shock - climbing pattern remains unchanged. The market has entered an event vacuum period after short - term positive events, but the positive logic still exists. With the increase in incremental funds and the stabilization of listed company performance, the medium - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold the remaining long positions in the medium - term and add positions opportunistically, and buy call options on the options [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Viewpoints Market Performance - Last week, the broader market rebounded after hitting a low, with most of the four major indices rising slightly, and the large - cap stock indices performed well. In terms of style indices, the cycle and stable style indices had the largest increases, followed by the financial style index, while the consumer index declined slightly. Among Shenwan industries, most industries rose, with cyclical sectors such as electrical equipment, coal, steel, and chemical leading the gains, and industries such as computer, pharmaceutical biology, automobile, and food and beverage leading the losses [4][13][15]. Economic Data - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The National Day holiday may have had an impact. Both supply and demand in the manufacturing PMI contracted in October, with production falling by 2.2% and new orders by 0.9%, and both ex - factory prices and raw material purchase prices continued to decline by 0.7%. The medium - and long - term credit growth rate has continued to decline to 6.30% as of September 2025, after rising from the low point in August 2022 and reaching the high point in May 2023 [4][26]. Policy - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, boosting the capital market. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools, cut the reserve requirement ratio, and lowered interest rates, and reduced the interest rates of existing mortgages. The CSRC proposed measures such as mergers and acquisitions and market value management to increase market activity. The implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market each year [4]. Performance - A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2025, the performance of the four major indices rebounded again [4][51][54]. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index has a relatively high valuation, with a PE of 16.6467, an upper - limit value of 15.60, and at the 89.06 percentile since 2010. The ChiNext valuation is relatively low [5][63][64]. 2. Capital Flow - In terms of margin trading, there was a net inflow of 274.8 billion yuan in 2024, and as of November 6, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 681.5 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 600 million yuan in the first five trading days. The total scale of private funds increased by 835.7 billion yuan this year, and the newly registered scale was 343 billion yuan. In the second quarter of 2025, the market value of A - share stocks and funds held by insurance funds increased by 251.3 billion yuan, and in the first half of 2025, it increased by 641.9 billion yuan. From April 7 to November 5, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 106.8 billion yuan, with an increase of 8.9 billion yuan last week. As of November 5, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 9.8 billion yuan. As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of stock - type funds was 323.3 billion yuan, and that of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion yuan [6][68][70]. 3. Index and Industry Trend Review - In terms of index trends, last week, most of the four major indices rose slightly, with the large - cap stock indices performing well. Among style indices, the cycle and stable style indices had the largest increases, followed by the financial style index, while the consumer index declined slightly. Among Shenwan industries, most industries rose, with cyclical sectors leading the gains and some consumer and technology - related industries leading the losses [4][13][15]. 4. Policy and Economy - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI declined, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The PPI has shown fluctuations in its decline rate, and in September, industrial enterprise revenue and inventory both increased for the first time. In September 2025, China's social financing scale decreased year - on - year, and the growth rate of medium - and long - term loans continued to decline. A series of policies have been introduced, including promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market, creating new monetary policy tools, and implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts [26][31][34]. 5. Earnings of Each Index - A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2025, the performance of the four major indices rebounded again [51][54]. 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index has a relatively high valuation, while the ChiNext valuation is relatively low [63][64]. 7. Capital Flow Details - Margin trading, private funds, insurance funds, and ETF funds have all shown different trends in capital inflows and outflows. In the secondary market, major shareholders had a large - scale net reduction of holdings last week, and the scale of restricted - share unlockings was small in November [6][68][99]. 8. Technical Analysis - The four major indices are in a state of shock, and their trends are presented through relevant charts [102][107][111].

"十五五"一篇大谋划，方方面面细做文章，而金融是国民经济血脉，关系中国式现代化建设全局，"十 五五"金融新图景如何，自然牵动着市场关注。 党的二十届四中全会审议通过的"十五五"规划建议，就加快建设金融强国作出部署。中央金融办分管日 常工作的副主任王江，近日以访谈形式做出阐释，揭示了金融强国的深刻内涵与实践路径。而近段时间 以来资本市场的蓬勃生机，进一步对金融高质量发展做出积极响应，自去年"924"行情以来科技股的亮 眼表现，以及上证指数重回4000点，站上十年新高，正是金融强国建设进程中最为生动的注脚。 在政策持续发力、市场信心不断修复的背景下，A股重新站上4000点关口，这一结果，不仅体现了资本 市场韧性的增强，也反映了投资者对中国经济高质量发展前景的看好。资本市场作为金融体系的重要组 成，稳健运行和活力迸发，正是金融强国建设成效的重要体现。 因此，如何以一个强大资本市场支撑未来金融强国的建设，就是一个需要全盘思考的问题。 "十五五"的金融新图景，必然是迈向金融强国。我们应该如何看待这一必然性的发展路径呢？ 首先，必须深刻把握金融强国的时代内涵。 加快建设金融强国，是全面建成社会主义现代化强国的必然要求。纵 ...

据介绍，本次培训精心设计，打造了"课堂"与"市场"无缝衔接的双课堂模式，培训内容紧扣前沿、聚焦 实战。邀请资深金融专家、交易所相关负责人、知名券商及律所专业人士、上市公司董秘等业界精英， 围绕企业如何选择上市板块、如何规划上市路径、如何利用多元资本市场工具等方面进行专业指导。通 过系统性的理论学习、最新的政策解读、深度的实地调研以及高效的面对面交流，帮助学员精准把握当 前资本市场的政策导向、上市规则与发展趋势等。 本报讯 （记者李立平）为深入贯彻党的二十大精神和党的二十届四中全会精神、扎实推进中国式现代 化进程，全面落实党中央、国务院关于全面深化资本市场改革的决策部署，紧抓"十四五"规划收官 与"十五五"规划谋篇布局的战略机遇期，精准服务宁夏特色优势产业中的拟上市后备企业，10月28日至 11月1日，在宁夏回族自治区党委金融办的指导下，由宁夏资本市场培训基金会主办的宁夏特色优势产 业"聚力创新 资本赋能"专题培训班在深圳资本市场学院举办。宁夏回族自治区相关部门领导干部及区 内后备上市企业代表近50人参加培训。 此次培训是宁夏主动对接发达地区金融资源、赋能实体经济转型升级的生动实践。目前，多家参训企业 已与相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in the government's approach towards real estate and capital markets, indicating a transition from real estate as the primary asset pool to capital markets as the new focus for investment and economic support [1][5]. Group 1: Government's Stance - The government's attitude towards real estate is to "stabilize," while the approach to capital markets is to "revitalize," suggesting a more proactive stance on capital markets compared to real estate [1]. - The planned funding for real estate development in 2024 is projected to be 78,898 billion, a 20% decrease year-on-year, indicating a decline in new construction and ongoing projects in the real estate sector [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - Over the past 30 years, real estate has been the main recipient of monetary easing, while capital markets were primarily seen as a financing platform, leading to a lack of significant growth in stock markets compared to real estate [2]. - The article draws parallels with historical economic developments in countries like the UK and the US, where asset prices typically rose in real estate before shifting to stock markets as economies matured [4]. Group 3: Future Implications - The transition to capital markets as the new asset pool is deemed inevitable, especially in light of the need for economic transformation and the support of technological development [3][5]. - The article suggests that the capital market will become a crucial engine for economic recovery and wealth generation, with the potential for significant growth beyond the current levels [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes the importance of aligning investment strategies with the emerging trend of capital markets becoming the primary asset pool, encouraging investors to capitalize on this shift [6]. - A live course is offered to help investors identify specific sectors and stocks that present opportunities in the current market environment, aiming to enhance understanding of capital market dynamics [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is transitioning to a new phase that relies more on technological innovation and capital markets, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" being crucial for solidifying foundations and driving comprehensive efforts towards achieving modernization by 2035 [1][3]. Group 1: Capital Market Goals - The total market value of China's capital market is expected to exceed 200 trillion yuan by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan," relying on endogenous market growth rather than new stock issuance [1][3][4]. - To align with the economic goals, the capital market's market value should increase to match GDP growth, aiming for a market-to-GDP ratio of 120% to 140% by 2030 [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Functions of Capital Market - The capital market must enhance five strategic functions: supporting technological advancements, deepening financial reforms, promoting market-oriented reforms, boosting domestic demand, and improving social welfare [5][6][7]. - The capital market is essential for supporting the construction of a modern industrial system and narrowing the technology gap with the U.S. in areas like AI [5][6]. Group 3: Enhancing Consumer Spending - A rising stock market can amplify consumer spending through wealth effects, with projections indicating that an increase in market value could lead to additional consumer spending of several trillion yuan annually [8][9]. - Improving social security levels, particularly for rural elderly residents, is crucial for unlocking consumption potential, with proposals to transfer a higher percentage of state-owned equity to social security funds [9]. Group 4: Liquidity and Long-term Market Health - The capital market's health is supported by improved liquidity, with expectations for M1 growth to exceed 8%, which typically indicates a rising stock market [10][11]. - A significant reduction in interest rates is necessary to alleviate financial burdens on households and businesses, encouraging more funds to flow into consumption and investment [11][12]. Group 5: Market Ecosystem for Long-term Investment - A diverse investment ecosystem is needed to attract long-term capital, encouraging participation from various institutional investors while also accommodating speculative and quantitative investment strategies [12].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of building a financial powerhouse and outlines a series of deployments, particularly focusing on establishing a well-functioning capital market [2][4]. Group 1: Role of Capital Market - The capital market is seen as a crucial component in supporting the construction of a financial powerhouse, with a significant emphasis on its role in financing technology innovation [4][8]. - The capital market is identified as the "main battlefield" for supporting technological innovation, which is a positive signal for the A-share market [8]. - The capital market's ability to support technology innovation is highlighted as superior to that of the banking system, which is essential for achieving self-reliance in technology [8][10]. Group 2: Financial Support for Technology - Effective financial support for technological advancement is deemed essential; without it, the concept of a financial powerhouse is considered hollow [5][6]. - The focus should be on accurately and efficiently allocating financial resources to the field of technological innovation, emphasizing the importance of risk pricing and management [6][7]. - The current financial system has shortcomings in recognizing and assessing the value of intangible assets, which are crucial for innovation [6]. Group 3: Capital Market Functionality - A well-functioning capital market should balance both financing and investment development, moving beyond merely supporting state-owned enterprises [10][11]. - Investor protection and the ability to achieve reasonable returns through capital market investments are critical for a healthy capital market [10]. - The capital market must play a unique role in supporting technological innovation, leveraging its advantages in risk allocation compared to the banking system [10][11]. Group 4: Economic Growth Model - The transformation of China's economic growth model requires not only technological innovation but also consumer-driven growth and domestic circulation [8]. - The capital market can significantly contribute to the development of consumer products and industries, enhancing household consumption through increased property income [8].