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七年磨一剑 坚守平衡之道
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-11-18 00:55
Core Insights - The interview highlights the success of He Ran, who won the championship in the hedging arbitrage group of the national futures (options) trading competition, emphasizing the importance of adhering to one's trading strategy despite market fluctuations [1] Group 1: Trading Philosophy and Strategy - He Ran attributes his success to the principle of "sticking to one's strategy," which helped him navigate through significant profit drawdowns and periods without gains during the competition [1] - His trading approach focuses on swing trading and arbitrage, primarily utilizing cross-commodity arbitrage in stock index futures and hedging arbitrage in options, capitalizing on the considerable profit potential in a volatile market [1] Group 2: Risk Management and Emotional Control - He Ran has established clear trading principles, using K-line breakthroughs as critical references for opening positions, stop-loss, and take-profit decisions [2] - He emphasizes strict adherence to stop-loss rules, such as a maximum loss of 0.5% per trade and a daily drawdown limit of 3%, which he believes is essential for protecting capital [2] - He Ran acknowledges the impact of emotions like anxiety, greed, and fear on trading decisions and advises distancing oneself from the market during negative emotional states to avoid larger losses [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Advice for New Traders - He Ran views his recent competition success as a new starting point, focusing on strategy optimization rather than short-term rankings, aiming for long-term stable profits [2] - He offers practical advice for novice traders, recommending starting with simulated trading to achieve stable profits before transitioning to real trading with small capital, while prioritizing capital protection [2]
有色套利早报-20251118
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 00:42
Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - term, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 18, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 18, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86490, the LME spot price was 10779, and the ratio was 8.07; the domestic three - month price was 86450, the LME three - month price was 10812, and the ratio was 8.01. No profit data for spot import and export was provided [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22380, the LME spot price was 3126, and the ratio was 7.16; the domestic three - month price was 22490, the LME three - month price was 3022, and the ratio was 5.76. No profit data for spot import and export was provided [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21620, the LME spot price was 2809, and the ratio was 7.70; the domestic three - month price was 21725, the LME three - month price was 2848, and the ratio was 7.64. No profit data for spot import and export was provided [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120300, the LME spot price was 14616, and the ratio was 8.23. The profit for spot import was - 2326.46 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17200, the LME spot price was 2037, and the ratio was 8.48; the domestic three - month price was 17355, the LME three - month price was 2054, and the ratio was 10.93. No profit data for spot import was provided [3] Cross - Term Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 370, - 370, - 410, and - 410 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 536, 970, 1413, and 1856 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 10, 35, 75, and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 337, 458, and 579 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 75, - 25, 0, and - 5, and the theoretical spreads were 220, 341, 461, and 582 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 120, - 90, - 65, and - 75, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 429, and 537 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 490, - 290, - 60, and 190 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 630, and the theoretical spread was 6008 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 360 and - 10 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 75 and 85 respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 245 and 125 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.84, 3.98, 4.98, 0.97, 1.25, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous), they were 3.60, 3.83, 5.29, 0.94, 1.38, and 0.68 respectively [5]
东证期货金工策略周报-20251116
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-16 12:27
Group 1: Report Information - The report is a weekly strategy report from the Dongzheng Derivatives Research Institute, covering stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity CTA strategies [1][38][51] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Market Review - The market declined last week, with the electronics sector contributing the main decline in each index [3] - IH and IF trading volumes increased week-on-week, while IC and IM trading volumes decreased. The basis weakened [4] Strategy Recommendations - For the basis strategy, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of calendar spread arbitrage when the discount narrows due to market sentiment. The rollover strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4] - For the arbitrage strategy, in the calendar spread arbitrage, the annualized basis rate, cash - and - carry, and momentum factor strategies were profitable last week, with returns of 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.2% respectively (6 - times leverage). The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthesis strategy had a net profit of 0.1% last week, and the latest signal recommends 50% long IF and short IC, 100% long IM and short IC [5] - For the timing strategy, the daily timing strategy was generally profitable last week, with the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 having returns of 0.4%, 0.6%, 1.1%, and - 0.7% respectively. The timing model's latest signal shows a significant increase in bullish sentiment [6] Group 3: Treasury Bond Futures Strategy Focus - For the basis and calendar spread, the IRR of treasury bond futures declined this week, and the calendar spread was volatile and strong. The space for cash - and - carry arbitrage is limited, and it is expected to move sideways [40] - For interest rate timing and hedging signals, the interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, and it is recommended to choose high - duration varieties for hedging [40][41] - For the futures timing strategy, the multi - factor timing strategy signal is neutral, with the basis factor and high - frequency factor being mainly bullish, and the spread factor and volume - price factor being mainly bearish [40][44] - For the futures cross - variety arbitrage strategy, the latest signals of the treasury bond futures cross - variety arbitrage strategies TS - T and T - TL are neutral [40][47] Group 4: Commodity CTA Factor Performance - Last week, the performance of various commodity varieties in the market varied. Precious metal silver led the rise due to renewed risk - aversion sentiment, and lithium carbonate rose 7%, while coking coal, glass, and red dates led the decline. Most commodity factors had good increases, with the momentum trend and term structure factors with significant long - term logic having an average increase of over 1%, and the value factor rising nearly 2%. The position - related factor had a slight increase, the spot - futures basis factor had a slight decline, and the warehouse receipt factor was basically flat [52][54] Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, and maximum drawdown. For example, the CW FT strategy has an annualized return of 9.4%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.61, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81% [53]
有色套利早报-20251114
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 00:50
Report Overview - The report is a non - ferrous metals arbitrage morning report released by the non - ferrous metals team of the research center on November 14, 2025, covering cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking for multiple non - ferrous metals [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - On November 14, 2025, the domestic spot price was 87,210, the three - month price was 87,580, the LME three - month price was 10,963, and the ratio was 7.96 [1] Zinc - On November 14, 2025, the domestic three - month price was 22,785, the LME three - month price was 3,089, and the ratio was 5.75 [1] Aluminum - On November 14, 2025, the domestic three - month price was 22,050, the LME three - month price was 2,902, and the ratio was 7.58 [1] Lead - On November 14, 2025, the domestic three - month price was 17,670, the LME three - month price was 2,089, and the ratio was 10.85 [1][3] Nickel - On November 14, 2025, the profit from spot import was - 2,084.11 [1] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 770, 800, 840, and 810 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 536, 970, 1413, and 1856 [4] Zinc - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 130, 175, 210, and 235 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4] Aluminum - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 200, 250, 250, and 265 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 220, 341, 462, and 583 [4] Lead - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 50, 70, 70, and 85 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 213, 322, 431, and 540 [4] Nickel - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 630, 800, 1040, and 1220 [4] Tin - On November 14, 2025, the 5 - 1 spread was - 740, with a theoretical spread of 6161 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 380 and 390 respectively [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On November 14, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.84, 3.97, 4.96, 0.97, 1.25, and 0.78 respectively [5]
一、动力煤:宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年11月13日)-20251113
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 13, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis and Inter - period Spreads**: The basis of power coal on November 12, 2025, was 32.6 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend compared to previous days. The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: For fuel oil, the basis on November 12, 2025, was 4.45 yuan/ton. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt and other data such as INE crude oil basis were also presented [7]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of rubber was - 470 yuan/ton, methanol was - 13 yuan/ton, PTA was - 85 yuan/ton, LLDPE was 312 yuan/ton, PVC was - 106 yuan/ton, and PP was 35 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was 85 yuan/ton, and that of methanol was 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the spread of LLDPE - PVC was 2199 yuan/ton, LLDPE - PP was 329 yuan/ton, PP - PVC was 1870 yuan/ton, and PP - 3*methanol was 149 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of螺纹钢 was 162.0 yuan/ton,铁矿石 was 6.0 yuan/ton,焦炭 was - 84.5 yuan/ton, and焦煤 was 216.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of螺纹钢 was 60.0 yuan/ton,铁矿石 was - 270 yuan/ton,焦炭 was 1435 yuan/ton, and焦煤 was 58.5 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the ratio of螺/矿 was 3.94,螺/焦炭 was 17972,焦炭/焦煤 was 1.3889, and螺 - 热卷 was - 219.0 yuan/ton [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of copper was - 190 yuan/ton, aluminum was - 160 yuan/ton, zinc was - 70 yuan/ton, lead was - 250 yuan/ton, nickel was 2060 yuan/ton, and tin was - 1440 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: On November 12, 2025, the LME升贴水 of copper was (14.10), aluminum was (27.55), zinc was 128.30, lead was (23.90), nickel was (203.90), and tin was 51.00. The沪伦比 and CIF and domestic spot prices were also provided [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of豆一 was - 107 yuan/ton,豆二 was 294.81 yuan/ton,豆粕 was - 9 yuan/ton,豆油 was 242 yuan/ton, and玉米 was - 17 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of豆一 was 43 yuan/ton,豆二 was - 216 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the ratio of豆一/玉米 was 1.89,豆二/玉米 was 1.73,豆油/豆粕 was 2.71,豆粕 - 菜粕 was 564 yuan/ton,豆油 - 棕榈油 was - 478 yuan/ton,菜油 - 豆油 was 1538 yuan/ton, and玉米 - 玉米淀粉 was - 312 yuan/ton [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of沪深300 was 17.91,上证50 was 1.50,中证500 was 88.05, and中证1000 was 116.58 [52]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The次月 - 当月 spread of沪深300 was - 158,上证50 was - 38,中证500 was - 706, and中证1000 was - 916 [52].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年11月12日):宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20251112
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 09:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 12, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodity categories such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows that the basis increased from - 2.4 yuan/ton on November 5 to 29.6 yuan/ton on November 11 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from November 5 to November 11, 2025, is provided, with values such as - 74.14, - 31.93, etc. [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the basis of rubber changed from - 500 yuan/ton on November 5 to - 395 yuan/ton on November 11 [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are presented, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rubber being 75 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are given, with values like 2203 yuan/ton for LLDPE - PVC on November 11 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows fluctuations. For example, the basis of rebar increased from 146 yuan/ton on November 5 to 175 yuan/ton on November 11 [20]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rebar being 61 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are given, with values like 3.97 for rebar/iron ore on November 11 [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the basis of copper changed from - 350 yuan/ton on November 5 to 20 yuan/ton on November 11 [29]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, etc., on November 11, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper is (21.28) [32]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows fluctuations. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 changed from - 103 yuan/ton on November 5 to - 92 yuan/ton on November 11 [39]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc., are provided, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for soybeans No.1 being 44 yuan/ton [39]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, etc., are given, with values like 1.90 for soybeans No.1/corn on November 11 [38][39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the basis of CSI 300 changed from 30.66 on November 5 to 25.37 on November 11 [50]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, such as the next - month minus current - month spread for CSI 300 being - 144 [50].
【建投观察】橡胶:云南停割临近,但需求亮点有限
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 08:53
Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is characterized by a rigid supply constraint due to the aging structure of rubber trees, which is a fundamental issue rather than a short-term weather or policy disturbance [1][4] Supply Side - The global rubber supply is entering a seasonal turning point, with production activities in Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia) normal but limited in growth potential [1] - The domestic production in Yunnan will begin to halt in early December, which, although representing less than 6% of global output, will reduce market pressure both emotionally and in localized supply [1] - The aging tree issue in key production areas like southern Thailand may continue to restrict future potential output [1] Demand Side - The tire industry, particularly in the all-steel tire segment, is showing resilience, with China's rubber tire output from January to July 2025 increasing by 0.7% year-on-year [2] - Strong export markets, especially for truck tires to African countries, have reached historical highs, offsetting uncertainties in other regions [2] - The domestic heavy truck market is recovering, driven by logistics demand and replacement policies, boosting the demand for all-steel tires [2] - However, there are concerns regarding high finished inventory levels for semi-steel tires and uncertainties in the global macroeconomic outlook that may limit significant demand improvement [2] Market Structure - Overall market inventory is at a historically neutral low level, providing a price safety net and limiting downward pressure [3] - There are structural opportunities in contract price spreads, particularly between domestic all-rubber and NR (20 rubber), which typically narrow seasonally from January to March [3] Future Outlook - The long-term capacity cycle is a key theme, with the aging of rubber trees leading to a lack of supply elasticity, which is crucial for supporting mid-to-long-term price levels [3] - Demand verification is essential, with close attention needed on the sustainability of tire export orders and the strength of the domestic heavy truck market recovery [3] - Global monetary policy and industrial policies in major consuming countries could alter trade flows and impact prices [3] Overall Market Condition - The rubber market is currently in a state of "weak supply-demand balance with neutral low inventory" [4] - In the short term, there is a lack of unilateral drivers to break the current oscillation pattern, and prices are likely to remain within the current range [4] - The rigid supply constraints and resilient demand together form a bottom support for prices, suggesting that focusing on the convergence opportunities between RU and NR may be more feasible than chasing unilateral trends [4]
有色套利早报-20251111
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 00:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - The report provides multi - dimensional arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 11, 2025, covering cross - market, cross - term, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage [1][2][3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 11, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86,530, the LME price was 10,765, with a ratio of 7.99; the three - month domestic price was 86,520, the LME price was 10,780, with a ratio of 8.03. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.08, and the profit was - 519.15. The profit for spot export was 112.61 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,560, the LME price was 3,254, with a ratio of 6.93; the three - month domestic price was 22,710, the LME price was 3,077, with a ratio of 5.69. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50, and the profit was - 5,080.28 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,490, the LME price was 2,866, with a ratio of 7.49; the three - month domestic price was 21,725, the LME price was 2,882, with a ratio of 7.52. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33, and the profit was - 2,390.99 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 122,800, the LME price was 14,899, with a ratio of 8.24. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.18, and the profit was - 1,720.63 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,300, the LME price was 2,042, with a ratio of 8.47; the three - month domestic price was 17,505, the LME price was 2,054, with a ratio of 11.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.72, and the profit was - 503.78 [6] Cross - Term Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 560, 600, 610, and 610 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 532, 961, 1400, and 1838 [2] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 10, 50, 45, and 85, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 339, 461, and 583 [2] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 130, 175, 175, and 185, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 339, 458, and 578 [2] - **Lead**: The spreads were 145, 145, 130, and 155, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 427, and 535 [2] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 540, 710, 920, and 1190 [2] - **Tin**: The spread for 5 - 1 was - 630, and the theoretical spread was 5926 [2] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 570 and - 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 59 and 619 [2] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 100 and 110, and the theoretical spreads were 103 and 235 [2] - **Lead**: The spreads were 60 and 205, and the theoretical spreads were 100 and 215 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On November 11, 2025, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.81, 3.98, 4.94, 0.96, 1.24, and 0.77 respectively; in London (three - continuous), they were 3.50, 3.76, 5.24, 0.93, 1.39, and 0.67 [3]
宝城期货品种套利数据日报:宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年11月10日)-20251110
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 02:40
Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for November 10, 2025, providing data on various futures products including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 1. Power Coal - The report presents the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from November 3 to November 7, 2025 [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are provided [7] Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are presented [9] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given [10] - Inter - commodity spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol) from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are provided [10] 3. Black Metals Inter - period Spreads - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The main contracts for rebar are in January, May, and October [19] Inter - commodity Spreads - Inter - commodity spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are provided [19] Basis - The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are given [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are presented [28] London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on November 7, 2025, are provided [34] 5. Agricultural Products Basis - The basis data of soybeans (first - grade, second - grade), soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are given [42] Inter - period Spreads - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented [42] Inter - commodity Spreads - Inter - commodity spreads (soybeans (first - grade)/corn, soybeans (second - grade)/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are provided [41] 6. Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are presented [53] Inter - period Spreads - Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [53]
期货品种周报:多铝空铜、沥青轻仓试多,关注黑色系产业链利润套利(螺矿比、焦螺比)
对冲研投· 2025-11-10 02:28
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Sector - Key Products: CSI 500 Futures (IC), CSI 1000 Futures (IM) - Bullish Outlook: Clear bullish sentiment supported by trading volume and open interest structure, but caution is advised for potential high-level pullbacks [1][2] Group 2: Government Bond Futures Sector - Key Products: 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - Market Sentiment: Overall consolidation with a slight bearish bias [3][4] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - Key Products: Gold (AU), Silver (AG) - Market Sentiment: Bearish consolidation; IC and IM show "Good Curve Long" structure with annualized rolling returns of 7.5% and 10.98%, significantly higher than SSE 50 and CSI 300 [5][6] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions or add on dips, focusing on long-dated contracts of IC and IM; cross-product arbitrage suggested [5][6] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Key Products: Copper (CU), Aluminum (AL), Zinc (ZN) - Market Sentiment: Significant differentiation; Aluminum shows the strongest fundamentals with tight supply-demand dynamics [9][10] - Trading Strategy: Long Aluminum and short Copper to capitalize on supply-demand gaps; light long positions in Zinc [9][10] Group 5: Black Metals Sector - Key Products: Iron Ore (I), Rebar (RB), Coking Coal (J) - Market Sentiment: Bearish outlook with negative returns for rebar and coking coal, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [13][14] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - Key Products: Crude Oil (SC), Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU), Asphalt (BU), Rubber (RU) - Market Sentiment: Significant differentiation; Crude Oil and Low Sulfur Fuel Oil benefit from geopolitical factors and shipping demand [15][18] - Trading Strategy: Long SC/LU and short RU to exploit energy versus chemical dynamics [15][18] Group 7: Agricultural Products Sector - Key Products: Soybean Meal (M), Soybean Oil (Y), Palm Oil (P), Live Hogs (LH) - Market Sentiment: Overall bullish; soybean oil and palm oil benefit from biodiesel demand and weather disturbances in South America [21][22] - Trading Strategy: Long soybean oil/palm oil and short soybean meal to capitalize on oil-meal ratios; short live hogs due to oversupply [21][22] Group 8: Soft Commodities and Specialty Products - Key Products: Sugar (SR), Cotton (CF), Urea (UR), Industrial Silicon (SI) - Market Sentiment: Mixed; Urea supported by agricultural demand while Industrial Silicon faces supply pressure [27][28] - Trading Strategy: Long Urea and short Industrial Silicon to leverage agricultural demand against industrial supply [27][28] Group 9: Summary of Trading Strategies and Risk Control Recommendations - Long positions recommended in IC, IM, Urea, Aluminum, and oilseeds; short positions in Copper, Rebar, Rubber, Live Hogs, and Industrial Silicon [30]