国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16975 2011 8.42 三月 17180 2033 10.80 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.84 -844.55 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/26 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78570 9826 8.01 三月 78500 9726 8.08 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.15 -1355.85 现货出口 898.69 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22200 2682 8.28 三月 21945 2699 6.35 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.67 -1052.78 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/26 国内价格 LME价格 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-24 铝锭社会库存小幅增加 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20650元/吨，较上一交易日下跌70元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌30元/吨至150元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20470元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 下跌40元/吨至-20元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20530元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌5元/吨至45元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-23日沪铝主力合约开于20425元/吨，收于20365元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌50元/ 吨，跌幅-0.24%，最高价达20580元/吨，最低价达到20340元/吨。全天交易日成交181056手，较上一交易日增 加87843手，全天交易日持仓253597手，较上一交易日增加89586手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.4万吨。截止2025-06-23，LME铝库存340975 吨，较前一交易日减少1875吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-23 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3130元/吨，山东价格录得3140 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/23 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78370 9846 7.97 三月 77570 9571 8.18 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.16 -2374.98 现货出口 1366.15 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22050 2601 8.48 三月 21560 2626 6.42 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 -564.68 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20720 2528 8.20 三月 20265 2517 8.16 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.60 -1033.31 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120550 14767 8.16 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.26 -3117.40 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16700 1953 8.57 三月 16850 1981 11.06 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.90 -65 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] Core Viewpoints - Energy crisis concerns are premature, and the spot price of alumina is rapidly declining [1] - Aluminum consumption shows marginal weakening, and inventory reduction is slowing down, but the absolute inventory is at a historical low. Alumina prices are in a downward trend, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is expanding [6] - The cost of alumina remains stable, while production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is falling rapidly, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, making the price more likely to fall than rise [6] - The supply of scrap aluminum for aluminum alloy is tight, and the smelting loss is at a historically high level. Cost support is emerging, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum price increased by 1.79% to $2,561.5/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract increased by 1.06% to 20,465 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$0.42/ton last week to $11.16/ton [1] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained basically stable and will maintain a steady and slight increase in the future. The built - in capacity is 45.2 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.15 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,000 tons, and the operating rate is 97.7% [1] - **Demand**: According to SMM data, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 52.5% compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 1.06% to 69.36%, the output of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 0.57 million tons to 372,470 tons, and the average operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged at 63.2% [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. As of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 342,900 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from the same period last week [1] - **Profit**: As of June 13, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 17,000 yuan/ton, the immediate production profit was about 3,750 yuan/ton, and the marginal maximum production cost was 18,500 yuan/ton [2] Alumina - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the main alumina contract price decreased by 0.17% to 2,890 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Guangxi decreased week - on - week, while the FOB price of imported alumina remained unchanged at $370/ton [3] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, according to阿拉丁 data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 112.92 million tons, the operating capacity was 93.05 million tons, a weekly increase of 400,000 tons, and the operating rate was 82.4% [3] - **Cost**: As of the week of June 20, the quoted price of bauxite on the website remained unchanged at $74.5/ton. The seaborne freight dropped from $27/ton to $22/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the national alumina inventory was 3.84 million tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 2.826 million tons, a weekly increase of 18,000 tons; the platform and port inventory was 906,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,000 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons [4] - **Profit**: As of June 20, 2025, based on imported ore at $75/ton, the full production cost of marginal high - cost enterprises was about 2,900 yuan/ton, and the production profit was about 350 yuan/ton. The production profit using domestic ore was about 300 yuan/ton. Alumina imports started to incur losses [4] Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: As of June 20, 2025, the Jiangxi Baotai quotation was 19,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [5] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 23,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons; the in - plant inventory was 82,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [5] Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Be neutral on aluminum and cautiously bearish on alumina [7] - **Arbitrage**: Conduct calendar spread arbitrage on aluminum, going long on AD11 and short on AL11 [7]

重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20770元/吨，较上一交易日下跌130元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日持平于180元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20610元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌20元 /吨至20元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20640元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌5元/吨至50元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-19日沪铝主力合约开于20650元/吨，收于20585元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌50元/ 吨，跌幅-0.24%，最高价达20695元/吨，最低价达到20525元/吨。全天交易日成交143884手，较上一交易日增 加8282手，全天交易日持仓175674手，较上一交易日减少22949手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-20 氧化铝现货市场成交连续性下滑 库存方面，截止2025-06-19，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存44.9万吨。截止2025-06-19，LME铝库存344950 吨，较前一交易日减少2050吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-19 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3160元/吨，山东价格录得3175元/吨 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/20 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78660 9755 8.10 三月 77930 9622 8.16 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -1293.68 现货出口 541.23 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22000 2595 8.48 三月 21550 2622 6.46 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 -583.20 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20770 2538 8.18 三月 20340 2538 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.61 -1086.05 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120400 14839 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.27 -3376.30 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 | | 国内价格 | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

铝期货方面：2025-06-18日沪铝主力合约开于20520元/吨，收于20680元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨275元/ 吨，涨幅1.35%，最高价达20745元/吨，最低价达到20500元/吨。全天交易日成交135602手，较上一交易日增 加33904手，全天交易日持仓198623手，较上一交易日减少321手。 能源扰动引发铝价上涨 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-19 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20900元/吨，较上一交易日上涨280元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌30元/吨至180元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20750元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 下跌40元/吨至40元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20760元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨25元/吨至55元/ 吨。 库存方面，截止2025-06-16，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存45.8万吨。截止2025-06-18，LME铝库存347000 吨，较前一交易日减少2100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-18 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3170元/吨，山东价格录得3180元 ...

跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/18 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -330 -510 -780 -950 理论价差 496 889 1292 1694 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -425 -560 -655 -725 理论价差 214 333 453 572 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -425 -545 -645 -725 理论价差 215 330 446 561 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -50 -55 -55 -55 理论价差 210 315 421 527 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 -660 -470 -330 -170 锡 5-1 价差 -780 理论价差 5460 期现套利跟踪 2025/06/18 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 25 -305 理论价差 475 862 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 60 -365 理论价差 132 260 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 铝合金与铝价价差走扩 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20620元/吨，较上一交易日下跌10元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日上涨240元/吨至210元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20490元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 上涨200元/吨至80元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20440元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨245元/吨至30 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-17日沪铝主力合约开于20410元/吨，收于20460元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨70元/ 吨，涨幅0.34%，最高价达20475元/吨，最低价达到20355元/吨。全天交易日成交101698手，较上一交易日减 少54378手，全天交易日持仓198944手，较上一交易日减少5356手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-16，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存45.8万吨。截止2025-06-17，LME铝库存349100 吨，较前一交易日减少2100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-17 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3180元/吨，山东价格录得319 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Aluminum prices may face difficulties in breaking upward without unexpected positive stimuli and could return to the previous plateau after the contract rollover, while the risk of cost collapse should be watched [4] - Alumina supply is expected to remain in excess with the release of new capacity and the recovery of previously maintained capacity, despite current slow提货 issues [6] - Aluminum alloy prices have limited upside during the off - season, but cost support exists, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Group 3: Key Data Aluminum - Spot prices: Yangtze River A00 aluminum was 20630 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20520 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum was 20420 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On June 16, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20375 yuan/ton, closed at 20405 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.1%), with a trading volume of 156076 lots and an open interest of 204300 lots [2] - Inventory: As of June 16, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 45.8 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 351200 tons, down 2025 tons [2] Alumina - Spot prices: On June 16, 2025, SMM alumina prices were 3200 yuan/ton in Shanxi and Shandong, 3250 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and FOB price in Australia was 370 dollars/ton [3] - Futures: On June 16, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2850 yuan/ton, closed at 2852 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.73%), with a trading volume of 294017 lots and an open interest of 298925 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On June 16, 2025, Baotai's civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15400 yuan/ton, mechanical aluminum scrap was 15500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; ADC12 Baotai quote was 19600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Inventory: The total aluminum alloy inventory was 10.73 tons, down 0.41 tons week - on - week [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Aluminum - Supply: There is a risk of production cuts at Rio Tinto's electrolytic aluminum plants in Australia [4] - Demand: Consumption shows signs of weakening marginally, and the inventory drawdown has slowed [4] - Market situation: The soft squeeze may have ended, and upward breakthrough of aluminum prices may be difficult without unexpected positive factors [4] Alumina - Supply: Industry profits have recovered, with production and inventory rising due to capacity restart and new capacity output [6] - Cost: Alumina plants' procurement is conservative, and domestic imported ore prices are hard to rise despite high freight [6] Aluminum Alloy - Market: It is in the off - season, with limited price upside, but cost support exists [6] - Arbitrage: Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities with the 11 - contract becoming a peak - season contract [6] Group 5: Strategies - Unilateral: Aluminum - Neutral; Alumina - Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy - Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [7]