Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices have strengthened, reaching around $4083 per ounce, with intraday fluctuations exceeding $70 [1] - Gold-related ETFs showed strong performance, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) rising by 1.70%, Gold Stock ETF (159562) increasing by 2.79%, and Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) up by 0.70% [1] - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 50.3 in November, the lowest level since June 2022, down from 53.6 in October and below the expected 53.2 [1] Group 2 - Concerns over the U.S. economy have been heightened due to the federal government shutdown lasting over a month, impacting consumer sentiment [1] - The decline in personal financial conditions and future business outlook expectations contributed to the drop in the consumer confidence index [1] - The weak U.S. economy has increased demand for safe-haven assets, providing strong support for gold prices, while the resolution of the government shutdown may significantly impact gold prices moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures prices have strengthened significantly, reaching approximately $4083 per ounce, driven by concerns over the U.S. economy and consumer confidence [1] Market Performance - COMEX gold futures experienced a daily fluctuation of over $70, with related ETF products showing strong performance: - Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) increased by 1.70% - Gold Stock ETF (159562) rose by 2.79% - Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) gained 0.70% [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 50.3 in November, the lowest level since June 2022, down from 53.6 in October and below the expected 53.2 [1] - The decline in consumer confidence is attributed to concerns over the prolonged federal government shutdown, which has lasted over a month, affecting personal financial situations and future business outlooks [1] Implications for Gold Prices - The weak U.S. economy has heightened consumer concerns, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which supports gold prices [1] - The resolution of the government shutdown is expected to significantly impact gold prices, making it a key factor for future price movements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold futures prices is driven by multiple factors including changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, alleviation of the U.S. government shutdown crisis, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and a resurgence in safe-haven demand [1][3][4]. Market Analysis - As of November 10, gold futures are trading around 932.56 CNY per gram, with a rise of 1.63%, reaching a high of 932.72 CNY and a low of 916.28 CNY [1]. - The Shanghai gold futures market has seen a strong upward trend, ending a recent adjustment phase with nearly a 2% increase [1]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 2,304.46 tons at the end of October, marking an increase of 0.93 tons and continuing a 12-month streak of gold accumulation [4]. - The ongoing gold purchases by the central bank are expected to provide long-term support for precious metal prices, influenced by global monetary expansion and de-dollarization trends [4]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Market focus includes developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, fluctuating expectations for a December interest rate cut, and a general easing in U.S.-China trade relations [4]. - Long-term driving factors for gold prices include geopolitical tensions and monetary settlement dynamics [4]. Technical Analysis - The current technical outlook for Shanghai gold futures indicates a short-term bullish cycle, with key resistance levels between 931-1,020 CNY per gram and important support levels at 903-950 CNY per gram [5]. - The market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend due to rising safe-haven sentiment and fluctuating U.S. dollar performance [5].

Group 1 - Gold prices reached around $4050, continuing a strong oscillating trend supported by recent U.S. market data indicating slowing job growth and low consumer confidence [1] - The latest employment data showed a weak performance, with over 150,000 layoffs reported in October, the highest for this period in over 20 years, reflecting a slowdown in labor market growth [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, with a nearly 66% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which lowers the holding cost of gold as a non-yielding asset [1] Group 2 - The University of Michigan reported a decline in the consumer confidence index to 50.3 in November, the lowest since June 2022, indicating increased economic uncertainty and rising demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - There are potential pressure factors in the market, as some U.S. government operations may resume, which could alleviate short-term economic risks and reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The main contradiction in the gold market is the interplay between interest rate expectations and risk appetite, with recent weak employment data and declining consumer confidence providing support for gold prices [4] Group 3 - Technically, XAU/USD is trading around $4050, with short-term support at $4020 and resistance at $4080, indicating a strong momentum but potential for pullback as it approaches resistance [2] - Observers are closely monitoring the dollar's performance and U.S. monetary policy information to assess potential price changes and market volatility characteristics [4]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillatory adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillatory [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillatory [2] - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda ash: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weakly oscillatory [6] - Pulp: Bottom rebound [6] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillatory [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillatory [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory [7] - Live pigs: Oscillatory and bullish [7] - Rubber: Oscillatory [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillatory [9] - MEG: Wide-range oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by macro and fundamental factors, with the main line of "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" for iron ore; coal and coke are supported by fundamentals but face the core contradiction of low steel mill profits; rolled steel and rebar need to rely on production reduction and anti-"involution" policies to stop the decline [2] - The financial market has different trends in stock index futures/options, treasury bonds, and precious metals. The stock market is affected by factors such as policy effects and capital flows, and the bond market shows a short-term consolidation and medium-term upward trend. Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [3][4] - The light industry products market has different trends in logs, pulp, and paper products. Logs face supply pressure and weakening demand, pulp is expected to rebound from the bottom, and double-offset paper is expected to oscillate [6] - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as policy adjustments, weather conditions, and supply and demand relationships. The prices of oils and fats are expected to operate in a range, and the prices of livestock products are expected to be oscillatory and bullish [6][7] - The soft commodities and polyester market are affected by factors such as weather, production capacity, and cost. The prices of rubber are expected to oscillate widely, and the prices of polyester products are expected to oscillate or wait and see [9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 59%. The iron water continued to decline from a high level, and the port inventory continued to increase. The pattern of oversupply was difficult to reverse [2] - Coking coal and coke: The overseas Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, and the domestic 14th Five-Year Plan exceeded market expectations. The coking coal raw coal inventory dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the supply of coking coal in the main producing areas was continuously tight. The market's core contradiction was the extremely low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The macro good news landed, and the black price returned to the fundamentals. The static valuation of rebar was low, and the steel price stop falling depended on the implementation of production reduction and anti-"involution" policies [2] - Glass: The news of the coal-to-gas conversion and cold repair of production lines in Shahe fermented. The real estate completion continued to decline during the peak season, and the glass demand was weak. The enterprise inventory continued to increase [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index recorded -0.31%, the SSE 50 index recorded -0.21%, the CSI 500 index recorded -0.24%, and the CSI 1000 index recorded -0.13%. The refined chemical and chemical raw material sectors showed net capital inflows, while the software and Internet sectors showed net capital outflows [2] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond due increased by 1bp, and the central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 141.7 billion yuan. The net withdrawal of funds on the same day was 213.4 billion yuan. The bond market showed a short-term consolidation and medium-term upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency attributes, financial attributes, and geopolitical risks. Silver is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry Products - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports decreased, and the demand was expected to weaken. The import volume increased seasonally, and the port inventory was expected to continue to accumulate. The spot market price was stable, and the market was waiting and watching [6] - Pulp: The spot market price was strong, but the cost support for the pulp price weakened. The papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the demand was poor. The pulp price was expected to rebound from the bottom [6] - Double-offset paper: The spot market price was stable. The new production capacity in South China was increasing, and the supply pressure remained. The market was expected to be cautious, and the price was expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Oils and fats: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data guidance. The palm oil production in Malaysia was expected to increase, and the inventory continued to rise. The domestic soybean supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The oil prices were expected to operate in a range [6] - Meals: The adjustment of China's tariff policy on the US improved the short-term market sentiment, but the fundamentals were still cautious. The soybean harvest in the US was completed, and the soybean planting rate in Brazil was lower than last year and the average. The domestic oil mill operating rate recovered to a high level, and the soybean meal supply increased [6] - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs decreased slightly. Retail investors had a bullish expectation and held back sales. The slaughtering enterprise's purchase average weight increased slightly. The settlement price of live pigs increased, and the market was expected to be oscillatory and bullish [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The raw material supply in Yunnan was stable, and the acquisition price decreased slightly. The glue production in Hainan was lower than expected. The cup glue price in Thailand continued to rise. The demand side's production capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The rubber price was expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX: The production increase atmosphere continued, and the oil price rebound was still weak. The short-term supply of PX increased, and the short-term PXN spread had limited room for further rebound [9] - PTA: The medium- and long-term oil price was expected to be weak, and the cost support was weakened. The PTA supply decreased marginally, but there were new device trials. The overall supply and demand improved, but the cost side was uncertain [9] - MEG: The arrival volume was expected to continue to rise, and the domestic production load recovered. The overall supply was at a high level. The demand side's polyester load was temporarily resilient, but there were concerns in the future. The future supply and demand were expected to be in surplus [9] - PR: The raw material support was limited, and the supply and demand pattern remained stalemate. The polyester bottle chip market was likely to maintain a narrow-range oscillation [9] - PF: The demand side performance was average, but the PX - PTA end had strong bottom support. The polyester staple fiber market was expected to oscillate narrowly [9]

张尧浠：潜在风险提升前景担忧、金价震荡调整仍待再攀升 黄金市场上周：国际黄金震荡收盘，波幅明显缩小，市场观望情绪浓厚，且也未跌破10周均线支撑，并收取止跌形态，暗示后市将有转看涨攀升的倾向， 但也需反弹至5日均线上方持稳才能进一步走强，否则将仍继续震荡调整后再走低的风险。 具体走势上，金价自周初低开于3990.81美元/盎司，先行录得当周高点4030.12美元，之后遇阻回落，于周二录得当周低点3928.77美元，就此连续震荡回 升走盘，最终于周五收于4000.06美元，但也仍处于30日均线下方，周振幅101.35美元，相对于前周收盘价4003.59美元，收跌3.53美元，现对于开盘价，收 涨9.25美元。 影响上，周初受黄金税收成本上升加剧投机资金的短期抛压，再加上美国民主党参议员敦促特朗普直接参与结束政府关门的谈判，令其金价低开走弱，再 加上美联储内部分歧引发了对今年再次降息前景的怀疑，美元指数连续走强，打压金价录得当周低点； 之后，由于逢低买盘，美国10月份制造业活动连续第八个月萎缩，各美联储官员对12月降息持开放态度，美国政府史上最长停摆持续，已经市场上的各种 不确定因素，而使其观望，令金价震荡走盘。 ...

Group 1: Dollar Index Insights - The recent rise in the dollar index is primarily driven by U.S. internal policy expectations and economic data support, with the Fed's rate cut expectations dropping from 82% to 67% for December[1] - October ADP private sector employment increased by 42,000, exceeding the market expectation of 30,000, indicating a stable job market[1] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI index also surpassed expectations, suggesting continued economic strength in the U.S.[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Risk Factors - U.S. government shutdown has led to a significant liquidity squeeze, with the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance rising from $800 billion to $1 trillion, while bank reserves fell to a record low of $2.8 trillion[1] - The overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) surged to 4.22%, exceeding the policy rate range of 3.75%-4.0%[1] - Geopolitical uncertainties in non-U.S. economies, such as the weakening of the British pound and euro, have further strengthened the dollar's relative position[1] Group 3: Market Performance Overview - For the week of November 1 to November 8, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.83%, while the S&P 500 fell by 1.63%[2] - The dollar index decreased by 0.19%, and the offshore RMB depreciated by 0.04% during the same period[2] - Commodity prices saw declines, with WTI crude oil down by 2.02% and SHFE rebar down by 2.27%[2] Group 4: Inventory and Positioning - Recent oil inventory levels reached 44.355 million tons, increasing by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest data shows a rise in dollar long positions to 14,032 contracts, up by 1,541 contracts, while short positions decreased to 24,376 contracts[3] - Gold ETF holdings increased to 3,350 million ounces, reflecting a rise of 90,000 ounces[3]

官方数据，尤其是劳动力市场数据的持续缺失，使得投资者和美联储难以准确评估美国经济状况，也无 法判断美国需要降息的幅度与速度。美联储在最近一次货币政策会议上宣布将基准利率下调25个基点， 但后续是否进一步降息仍有待观察。本周多位美联储官员将发表例行讲话，市场关注有关经济和货币政 策方面的表述。 近期美国非官方数据释放的信号好坏参半。10月美国供应管理协会（ISM）非制造业指数和自动数据处 理公司（ADP）私营部门就业数据均好于预期。然而，就业咨询公司挑战者（Challenger,Gray -&- Christmas）的数据显示，10月美国企业裁员人数超过15万人，为2003年以来同期最高水平。 美国财政部将于周一拍卖580亿美元3年期国债，周三拍卖420亿美元10年期国债，周四拍卖250亿美元30 年期国债。此次拍卖将考验投资者对长期国债的需求意愿。 财报季进入中后期，本周值得关注的企业包括思科、应用材料和迪士尼等，中概股腾讯、京东、网易等 也将披露业绩。 上周国际市场风云变幻，美国政府停摆继续，科技股估值担忧再起。美股全线下挫，道指周跌1.21%， 纳指周跌3.04%，标普500指数周跌1.63%。欧洲三大股 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate to approximately 3.75% to 4% [1] - The Fed's cautious stance indicates that future rate paths will depend on economic data performance, leading to increased market volatility [1] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a phase of declining inflation alongside slowing employment growth, complicating the Fed's ability to balance inflation control and job maintenance [1] Group 2 - Multiple central banks are enhancing regional monetary cooperation, reactivating liquidity arrangements to stabilize financial systems and improve foreign exchange reserve flexibility [2] - There is a notable rotation of funds between safe-haven assets, the U.S. dollar, and risk assets, with increased activity in options and hedging tools reflecting heightened market risk aversion [2] - The global macro landscape is influenced by two main themes: the adjustment pressures of monetary policy amid inflation and employment divergence, and rising safe-haven demand driven by fiscal and geopolitical risks [2]

Group 1 - The market is currently under the shadow of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, leading to weakened economic data and increased risk aversion, with gold prices holding above $4,000 [1][2] - Gold prices rose to $4,002 per ounce, supported by safe-haven buying and a 68% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, as consumer confidence in the U.S. dropped to its lowest level since mid-2022 [1][2] - The World Gold Council reported a net inflow of 54.9 tons into gold ETFs in October, indicating a significant return of institutional funds [1] Group 2 - The euro gained some strength against the dollar, with the EUR/USD rising to around 1.1560, despite a decrease in Germany's trade surplus to €15.3 billion, reflecting ongoing economic weakness in the Eurozone [2] - The U.S. stock market faced pressure, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 200 points, marking a three-week low, as consumer confidence weakened and the AI sector experienced volatility [2] - The ongoing government shutdown, now in its 38th day, has led to the suspension of certain social welfare programs, impacting low-income groups and contributing to cautious investor sentiment [2] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by high uncertainty due to the government shutdown, weakening consumer confidence, and rising corporate layoffs, while expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and safe-haven demand are supporting gold prices [3] - Short-term focus will be on the progress of government reopening and upcoming CPI data, which may influence the direction of the dollar and gold [3] - Investors are advised to monitor macro policy signals and data changes that could affect global risk appetite, while maintaining flexible multi-asset allocation and position management strategies [3]