黄金市场本周波动剧烈，最终金价本周收盘下滑，金价在看涨突破后未能稳定在3400美元/盎司上方，技术 面前景凸显黄金多头近期的犹豫不决。本周前两个交易日，现货黄金价格累计大涨2.4%，但金价在本周后 三个交易日累计的跌幅达到近3%。主要因为特朗普贸易谈判方面传来积极进展，市场风险偏好情绪回升， 这打击了黄金的避险需求。 下周二周三美联储重磅来袭 黄金：3350附近做空，防守3360，目标看3325，破位下看3310一线！ 所谓一个靠谱的人，凡事有交代，件件有着落，事事有回音，兴言一直致力于市场，唯有坚持写出对投资 者有用的分析，少错一单，那么我相信日久见方能见人心！ 责任编辑：赵兴言 对于下周黄金走势的看法！ 黄金周五出乎所有人的预料，延续弱势下跌，触及我们上周说到的4小时趋势线3335一线之后直接下跌走 弱，那么对于目前的趋势上来看，趋势偏空无反弹，那么弱势就将还会持续，只有跌幅到一定的位置筑底 之后才会有买盘的进场，而下周则延续看空即可！ 小时线上多空的轮转比较明显，前三天还是走的上行趋势通道，而后两天直接回吐所以涨幅重新构筑了新 的下行通道出来，那么3350这个位置就是我们下周继续看空的关键点位，毕竟4小 ...

Market Performance - The three major indices in the US rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.26%, Nasdaq up 1.02%, and S&P 500 up 1.46% for the week [1] - The S&P 500 index set a new closing record for the fifth consecutive time, marking its 13th all-time high in 2025 [1] - Alphabet's strong earnings report contributed to a 4% increase in its stock price [1] - Over 82% of the 169 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeded Wall Street expectations [1] Individual Stocks - Intel (INTC.US) saw a decline of 8.53%, while Tesla (TSLA.US) increased by 3.52% [1] - Paramount (PARA.US, PARAA.US) and Skydance Media's merger has received regulatory approval, expected to complete by August 7 [8] - Intel plans to spin off its Network and Edge Group into an independent company and is seeking external investment for this division [9] International Markets - The German DAX30 index fell by 0.39%, while the French CAC40 index rose by 0.21% [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.88%, while the KOSPI index increased by 0.18% [3] Commodities - Gold prices fell by 0.94% to $3336.92 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 0.40% [4] - Crude oil prices also dropped, with light crude futures down 1.32% to $65.16 per barrel [3] Macro News - The Trump administration is preparing to issue a state of emergency declaration to impose tariffs on Brazilian goods [5] - There are reported discrepancies in the US-Japan trade agreement regarding profit sharing, with Japan denying the US's claim to 90% of profits [6]

2025 年 7 月 25 日星期五 投 贸易战避险有所消退 金弱银强持续分化？ www.shanjinqh.com 作者：林振龙 资 投资 咨询资 格证号： Z0018476 审核：曹有明 Z0013162 复核：刘书语 F03107583 电话：021–2062 7529 邮箱： linzhenlong@sd-gold.com 报告导读 一、避险属性 咨 1、贸易协议分批达成，美欧贸易协议谈判取得进展，拟统一 15%关税税率， 地缘风险缓和削弱避险需求； 询 部 2、特朗普多次威胁解雇鲍威尔，特朗普视察美联储总部，表示仍希望降 息但不会解雇鲍威尔，市场担忧缓和。 投资 咨询资 格证号： 二、货币属性 2、世界白银协会预期由于需求下降 1%，总供应量增加 2%，预计 2025 年 全球白银供需缺口将收窄 21%，降至 1.176 亿盎司，仍有约 3658 吨。 四、资金面： 近期 CFTC 管理基金金银净多头重新增仓；国内沪金期货公司净多高位减 仓，沪银机构净多小幅减仓；世界最大黄金 ETF 和白银 ETF 结束长期下行趋势 后缓慢增仓。 黄 金 白 银 1、最新美国经济数据好坏参半。美国 6 月成屋销售跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to decline due to reduced safe-haven demand driven by optimistic trade sentiments between the US and EU, alongside strong economic data and monetary policy expectations [3][4][10] Group 1: Trade Optimism and Safe-Haven Demand - Market expectations for a breakthrough in US-EU trade negotiations have diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, with a potential agreement to lower tariffs to 15% expected by August 1 [3] - The announcement of a €93 billion tariff plan by EU member states against US products has not deterred optimism regarding a trade deal, leading to a significant drop in gold prices from a five-week high of $3438 [3] - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates has reinforced expectations of a weak Eurozone economy, indirectly supporting a stronger US dollar and pressuring gold prices [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Monetary Policy Pressure - Strong US economic data, including a 15.5% increase in durable goods orders (excluding defense), has contributed to a hawkish outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, with a 94% probability of maintaining interest rates in July [4] - The rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.384% and an increase in real yields to 1.994% have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold [4] - The US dollar index has strengthened by 0.18% to 97.62, further diminishing the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Institutional Withdrawal - Gold has fallen below the critical psychological level of $3400, with potential further declines towards $3350 if it remains below this threshold [7] - The RSI indicator shows a weakening of buyer dominance, indicating a slowdown in momentum [7] - Institutional investors are accelerating their exit from gold, as evidenced by a reduction in COMEX non-commercial net long positions by 3200 contracts to 122,000 and a decrease in SPDR Gold ETF holdings to a two-month low of 954.8 tons [9] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Data Expectations - Despite trade and economic factors dominating the market, geopolitical risks remain a concern, with potential events that could temporarily boost safe-haven demand [10] - The market is awaiting the release of US July durable goods orders data, with expectations of a drop from 16.4% in May to 10.8%, which could further reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve if the data exceeds expectations [10] - The current gold market faces dual pressures from trade optimism and economic data, with increased risks of downward movement below the $3350 support level [10]

Group 1 - Silver market shows strong upward momentum, outperforming gold with a year-to-date increase of approximately 35% compared to gold's nearly 28% rise [1] - Current silver price is attempting to maintain above the critical level of $39 per ounce, following a prolonged supply shortage lasting 7 years [1] - Spot gold price has fallen below the important threshold of $3360.23 per ounce, while spot silver has shown a slight increase of 0.02% to $39.03 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates that the US composite PMI rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6 in July, with the services PMI significantly increasing to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic activity [2] - Strong PMI data supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates, while also boosting the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [2] - Upcoming US durable goods orders data is crucial as it may provide new insights into gold price trends, with strong data potentially reinforcing economic recovery expectations and further pressuring gold prices [2] Group 3 - Spot gold experienced fluctuations with a downward trend, while spot silver remains near a 14-year high, hovering around levels last seen in September 2011 [3] - Silver's recent price action is supported by a weak dollar, with a weekly increase of nearly 2.36%, despite a slight daily decline of 0.50% [3] - Silver continues to trade well above its 9-day, 21-day, and 50-day moving averages, maintaining a bullish technical structure [3]

数据，将成为决定国债收益率与美元走势的关键变量，若数据继续疲软或美联储在7月30日议息会议上释放 免责声明 更多鸽派信号，金价基本面支撑有望进一步增强，反之则需警惕避险需求的短暂退潮。操作上建议，继续 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 贵金属产业日报 2025-07-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 778.74 | -14.16 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 9386 | -106 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 213456 | -8931 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 459484 | -18795 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 160396 | -1408 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 135258 | 1070 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 29358 | 501 仓单数 ...

摘要在7月24日的亚洲交易时段，一则重磅利好消息传来——美日成功达成协议，且美欧也渐近达成 15%关税协议。受此积极因素提振，市场对于贸易摩擦的忧虑情绪显著缓解。随着避险需求的迅速降 温，美债收益率呈现全线攀升态势；现货黄金价格跌破3380美元/盎司关口，日内跌幅为0.20%；与此同 时，现货白银亦出现短线急跌行情，日内跌幅高达1.00%，当前报价定格于38.84美元/盎司。 在7月24日的亚洲交易时段，一则重磅利好消息传来——美日成功达成协议，且美欧也渐近达成15%关 税协议。受此积极因素提振，市场对于贸易摩擦的忧虑情绪显著缓解。随着避险需求的迅速降温，美债 收益率呈现全线攀升态势；现货黄金价格跌破3380美元/盎司关口，日内跌幅为0.20%；与此同时，现货 白银亦出现短线急跌行情，日内跌幅高达1.00%，当前报价定格于38.84美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 据了解谈判情况的外交官透露，欧盟与美国正朝着达成协议的方向迈进，该协议将对大多数产品设定 15%的关税税率。外交官表示，成员国可能准备接受15%的关税，且欧盟官员正推动将这一税率涵盖汽 车等行业。 其中一位外交官补充称，超过一定配额的钢铁和铝进口将面临5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the bullish trend in gold has ended after a significant drop, with a recent high of 3440 being a resistance level that led to a decline to around 3380, marking a drop of nearly 60 dollars [2][4] - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are heavily influenced by tariff news, with reports suggesting that the US and EU are nearing a tariff agreement, which has diminished the demand for gold as a safe haven [4] - Today's trading is critical, with key resistance levels at 3396 and 3420; if these levels are not maintained, a bearish outlook is expected [6][9] Group 2 - Silver prices also experienced a decline after reaching new highs, with short-term potential for further increases but a likelihood of significant corrections in the medium term [6] - Support levels for silver are identified at 38.7, with further declines expected if this level is breached, potentially leading to prices dropping to 35-34.5 [8] - The trading strategy for both gold and silver emphasizes short positions at resistance levels, with specific targets and stop-loss measures outlined for risk management [9]

周四（7月24日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅波动，目前交投于3390美元附近，有消息称美国和欧盟即将 签署一项协议，该消息让避险需求受到打击，金价周三跌破3400美元的/盎司，跌幅1.30%。 摘要周四（7月24日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅波动，目前交投于3390美元附近，有消息称美国和欧盟 即将签署一项协议，该消息让避险需求受到打击，金价周三跌破3400美元的/盎司，跌幅1.30%。 【要闻速递】 英国《金融时报》周三报道称，欧盟与美国接近达成一项贸易协议，将对欧洲进口商品征收15%关税， 类似于美国特朗普本周与日本达成的协议。 三位知情人士向《金融时报》表示，布鲁塞尔可能会同意所谓的"对等关税"，以避免特朗普威胁祭出的 关税。特朗普此前威胁自8月1日起上调对欧盟关税至30%。 一名欧盟外交官指表示："与日本达成的协议明确了敲诈勒索的条款。大多数成员国都在忍气吞声，可 能会接受这项协议。" 上述知情人士表示，双方将免除部分产品的关税，包括飞机、烈酒与医疗器材。 其中两位知情人士表示，美日达成的协议已促使布鲁塞尔方面勉强接受更高的对等关税税率，以避免一 场破坏性的贸易战。 【技术分析】 黄金价格昨天冲高3438附近 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price, and the restructuring of the international trade - currency system will support the long - term bull market of gold. The economic growth slowdown and central bank interest - rate cut expectations caused by Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price - to - earnings ratios mean increased price volatility, and in the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the implementation of the US fiscal expansion bill and rising inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [6]. - In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce, waiting for the next round of breakthrough and upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Trump's government pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, causing the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields to decline significantly, which boosted the price of precious metals with strong financial attributes. London gold rebounded close to $3440 per ounce. However, the information about the US reaching trade agreements with the Philippines and Japan in the Asian session on the 23rd weakened the safe - haven demand for gold. Currently, the volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary PMI values for July in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating within the range of $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, the uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high geopolitical risks continue to support the price. It is expected that in the short term, London gold will continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. Traders with a bearish mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 794.01, up 1.04%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9500, up 1.05%; the Gold T + D closed at 788.11, up 1.04%; the Silver T + D closed at 9475, up 1.14% [5]. II. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Treasury Secretary, Bezant, will meet with the Chinese Treasury Secretary in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the deadline for the agreement reached on August 12 to avoid a significant tariff increase. China's embassy in the US said that the implementation details of the trade consensus reached by Trump and Xi Jinping have been finalized [18]. - US President Trump said that a large - scale deal has been reached with Japan, and Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US and invest $550 billion in the US as required. The EU's trade commissioner said that the upcoming China - EU summit is an opportunity to discuss key trade and investment issues [18]. - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, saying that he is a fool for keeping interest rates too high and that Powell will step down in eight months. Trump believes that the policy interest rate should be 3 percentage points lower than the current level. Bezant said that there is no need for Powell to step down immediately and that Powell should adjust the scale of the Fed's non - monetary policy functions as a legacy of his tenure [18].