关税影响好转 有色金属或继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-05-12 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 英美达成贸易协议，中美亦开始正式接触谈判，全球贸易紧张局势有所缓解。美联储暂停降息，国内提出"一揽子金融政策"，均基本符合市场预 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位持续横盘 | 期。特朗普关税政策反反复复，关税影响总体上相对好转，但前期给全球经济带来的不利影响仍然存在，从4月进出口数据来看对中国影响有限， | | | 铜 | | 但后续不良影响仍可能会逐步显现。基本面上，国内库存降至低位，近一个月国内库存下降明显，带动了现货升水走高和盘面Back结构扩大。TC | 区间交易 | | | 77000-79000 | 持续探底跌破-42美元，虽受 ...

Classification 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Classification 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated and converged. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, China released a package of financial policies, and partial progress was made on Trump's tariffs, easing market sentiment [3][6][7]. - Fundamentally, due to tariffs, lead ore raw materials remained tight, and domestic and foreign processing fees were stable at low levels. Primary lead smelters had a mix of production cuts and restarts. Shandong Hengbang started a one - month production cut at the beginning of the month, and Guangxi Southern will resume production in mid - May. The discount of spot quotes widened, and smelters were not keen to sell. The supply - demand structural contradiction of waste batteries was prominent. Secondary lead smelters suffered losses of 600 - 800 yuan/ton, and more smelters cut or extended production cuts, resulting in a continuous decline in supply [3][6]. - In terms of demand, battery consumption remained in the off - season. Enterprises faced high inventory pressure, raw material inventories were not digested, and the motivation for restocking after the holiday was insufficient, with demand mainly for rigid needs [3][6][7]. - Overall, tariff concerns eased, and market risk appetite recovered. The fundamentals remained weak in both supply and demand. The structural contradiction in raw material supply would exist in the medium - to - long term. The scope of production cuts by secondary lead smelters expanded, and primary lead smelters also carried out maintenance, showing a trend of shrinking supply. However, consumption continued in the off - season, and the high basis between futures and spot prices strengthened the expectation of inventory increase driven by warehouse receipts, dragging down the lead price. The game between cost and consumption continued, and it was expected that the lead price would continue to fluctuate [3][7] Classification 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | May 1 | May 9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16840 | 16805 | - 35 | yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1957 | 1985.5 | 28.5 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.61 | 8.46 | - 0.14 | | | SHFE Inventory | 46786 | 49504 | 2718 | tons | | LME Inventory | 264225 | 253425 | - 10800 | tons | | Social Inventory | 4.53 | 4.75 | 0.22 | ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 75 | - 90 | - 15 | yuan/ton | [4] 2. Market Review - After the May Day holiday, the main PB2506 contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated and converged, closing at 16805 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.21%. It fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. LME lead fluctuated, showing a pattern of first falling and then rising, closing at 1985.5 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 2.8% [5]. - In the spot market, as of May 9, the price of Honglu lead in the Shanghai market was 16750 - 16780 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2506 contract. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of Jiangtong and Jinde lead was reported at 16730 - 16780 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2505 or 2506 contract. Shanghai lead remained in a consolidation state. Sellers sold goods according to the market, and the discount of some quotes widened. The ex - factory quotes of smelters' direct sales sources were at a discount of 125 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. Secondary lead smelters reduced sales. Some secondary refined lead quotes were at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises only made rigid - need purchases and bargained a lot. Some goods with expanded discounts were traded [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 9, the LME weekly inventory was 253425 tons, a weekly decrease of 10800 tons. The SHFE inventory was 49504 tons, an increase of 2718 tons from last week. As of May 8, the SMM five - region social inventory was 4.75 ten thousand tons, an increase of 0.22 ten thousand tons from April 30 and an increase of 0.16 ten thousand tons from May 6. After the holiday, downstream enterprises were more watchful, making rigid - need purchases and unable to quickly digest the lead ingot inventory accumulated during the holiday. At the same time, the basis between futures and spot prices widened to 120 - 220 yuan/ton, increasing the willingness of sellers to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory of deliverable brands transferred from factory warehouses to delivery warehouses, and the social inventory of lead ingots rose again, with the expectation of further increase [6] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 9, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 650 yuan/metal ton and - 30 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous week [8]. - A medium - sized lead smelter in North China is expected to conduct annual routine maintenance in early June for about 35 days, which is expected to affect lead production by 9500 tons and silver production by about 10 tons. A large secondary lead smelter in East China has been unstable in production due to losses. Its production dropped to about 100 tons/day before the May Day holiday and has now completely stopped production, with the resumption date to be determined. According to a large battery group's secondary lead smelter, the arrival of waste lead - acid batteries is poor, and tight raw material inventory may lead to a production cut in mid - May. A small secondary lead smelter in South China plans to start a shutdown for maintenance this weekend due to exhausted raw material inventory and serious losses, affecting production by about 70 tons/day [8]. - Foreign media reported that Teck Resources is considering diverting the products of its Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska from the Chinese market to other regions to avoid tariff risks caused by the China - US trade war. The mine's output accounts for about 5% of the global zinc supply and 2.5% of the lead supply. Currently, more than 20% of its zinc concentrates are sold to China [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 related charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary lead and secondary refined lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, primary lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is range - bound, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillating [1][5]. - The policy support and capital return after the holiday are the main driving factors for the short - term rise of the stock index, and the stock index has medium - and long - term capital support and macro - policy support [5]. - The stock index faces technical resistance when rising to the gap in early April, and the result of China - US contact is uncertain, which may affect market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly, with a reference view of range - bound oscillation, and the core logic is that policy support is strong [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is range - bound [5]. - The reasons for the short - term rise of the stock index are the return of funds after the holiday and the release of a package of financial policies. In the medium and long term, there is capital support and macro - policy support [5]. - The stock index faces technical resistance when rising, and the result of China - US contact is uncertain, which may lead to cautious market sentiment [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the brokerage sector, indicating potential for double-digit growth in performance due to supportive policies and high market activity [2][3]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing a mismatch between high profitability and low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.2x as of May 9, which is at the 21st percentile over the past decade. This divergence is expected to correct as policy and merger catalysts continue to emerge [1][2]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: (1) Increased expectations for brokerage mergers, (2) Recovery in consumer loan demand benefiting from policy support, and (3) Specific opportunities in companies like Sichuan Shuangma, which has a strong position in the technology sector and improved exit channels [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share market saw the CSI 300 index increase by 2.0%, with the non-bank financial sector rising by 1.7%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.3 percentage points [8]. Data Tracking - Brokerage trading activity is robust, with an average daily trading volume of 13,534 billion CNY, up 22.6% week-on-week. The new issuance of equity mutual funds in the first four months of 2025 reached 1589.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 113.3% [12]. - In the investment banking sector, the total fundraising from IPOs and refinancing in April 2025 was 247 billion CNY and 1,671 billion CNY, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 6% and an increase of 51% [12]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have allowed various financial institutions, including insurance funds, to invest in technology innovation bonds, which is expected to enhance investment opportunities in the sector [34].

研究所 底部震荡，缓慢修复 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年05月11日 研究所 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——内外盘主力价格合约走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 镍期货收盘价(主力合约)(单位：元/吨) 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 目 录 CONTENTS ...

Group 1 - The central bank announced a package of ten policy measures, including a comprehensive reduction of the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and a decrease in the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations [3] - The four major first-tier cities have simultaneously lowered the housing provident fund loan interest rates, signaling continued easing in the real estate market to stimulate demand [3][4] - Several funds have seen gains exceeding 40%, with a focus on the robotics and innovative drug sectors, indicating strong investor interest in these areas [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations [6] - Moody's warned of increasing risks to the retail sector due to rising exposure to private credit, highlighting a shift in the credit market since the pandemic [6] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced adjustments, with technology stocks generally underperforming, while bank and power stocks showed strength, resulting in an overall increase in major indices [8] - The total number of newly issued bank wealth management products reached 513, with a total establishment scale of approximately 41.7 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [17]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of supporting the bond market's healthy development and highlights the risks associated with interest rate fluctuations in the bond market [1] - It notes that while government bonds carry no credit risk, their market prices are subject to reverse fluctuations when market interest rates change, thus facing interest rate risk [1] - The report suggests encouraging large banks to engage more in bond trading to help maintain market supply-demand balance and promote reasonable bond pricing [1] Group 2 - The report advocates for creating a favorable financial environment to boost and expand consumption, especially as external demand weakens due to global trade tensions [2] - It outlines that the People's Bank of China will implement moderately loose monetary policies and introduce a package of financial measures to support consumption [2] - The report identifies ongoing issues in the real economy, such as weak demand and excessive competition in certain sectors, which affect price levels [2] Group 3 - The report states that promoting a reasonable rebound in prices requires balancing supply and demand, with a focus on expanding effective demand [3] - It calls for deepening structural reforms and coordinating various policies, including fiscal, monetary, industrial, employment, and social security, to enhance policy synergy [3] - The report suggests a shift in price control strategies from managing high prices to managing low prices, emphasizing high-quality development over mere scale expansion [3]

丨 来源：总台央视 2025-05-07 ...

Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - A comprehensive financial policy package has been launched, highlighting the value of bank stocks. The People's Bank of China announced measures including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates [3][4] - China Galaxy Securities indicates that the implementation of these policies will enhance liquidity and support credit structure optimization, which is expected to positively impact the banking sector's fundamentals and accelerate the realization of bank stock value [3] - CITIC Securities notes that while interest rate cuts may affect banks' asset yields and interest margins, the smaller-than-expected cuts suggest a balanced approach to managing bank margins, with supportive policies for key sectors likely to stabilize asset risk expectations [4] Group 2: Textile and Apparel Industry Opportunities - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Commerce have initiated the "2025 Textile and Apparel Quality Supply Promotion and Upgrade" activity, aiming to enhance the quality of textile and apparel supply and promote industry upgrades through consumption [9] - In the first quarter of this year, China's textile industry showed stable growth, with industrial added value increasing by 5.3% year-on-year, and total revenue reaching 110.16 billion yuan, a 1.0% increase [9] - Ping An Securities suggests that apparel manufacturing and export-related companies may benefit from the recovery in discretionary consumption, while brand companies may see new market opportunities following valuation adjustments [10] - According to Founder Securities, the ongoing effects of domestic demand expansion policies are expected to improve consumer sentiment, making brand apparel and home textile sectors attractive for investment [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and supporting economic growth, which includes various monetary and regulatory measures [1][2] - The financial policy package consists of 10 monetary policies from the central bank and 8 incremental policies from the banking regulatory authority, indicating a strong commitment to market stability and long-term institutional arrangements [1] - The recent announcements are seen as a response to the political bureau meeting held on April 25, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing foreign trade and providing a strong bottom support for the market [1] Group 2 - The cash flow ETF (159399) is highlighted as an investment opportunity due to its monthly assessable dividends and focus on large-cap stocks with stable free cash flow, aligning with current investor preferences [2] - The ETF tracks the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Index, which is expected to attract more capital interest in the current market environment [2]