| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月16日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 机信 | 前值 | 张跃 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3250 | -10 | 90 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3230 | 3220 | 10 | 80 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3370 | 3360 | 10 | 220 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3075 | 3060 | 15 | 165 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3118 | 3127 | -d | 122 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3150 | 3155 | -5 | 90 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3300 | 3320 | -20 | 28 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3230 | O | -42 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

Report Title - Macro atmosphere rebounds, steel prices rebound from lows - Weekly Report 20250512 [1] Core Views - The implementation of the "package of financial policies" by the State Council Information Office and the substantial progress in the China - US talks have boosted market confidence, and the macro atmosphere has improved. After the holiday, affected by factors, the inventory of the five major steel products has increased. It is expected that the demand will improve on a low - base basis in the week after the holiday, and steel prices will be supported at low levels and show a phased rebound [3]. - The supply of iron ore shows a phased contraction, and the iron ore supply - demand structure has improved, which, combined with the warming macro - atmosphere, leads to a phased rebound of the black series after over - decline. The main iron ore contract should pay attention to the pressure around 730 - 750 [4]. - After the holiday, the overall supply of coking coal remains in a loose pattern, and the online auction turnover rate is still low. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, but the second - round price increase of coke has been shelved. With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, it is stable in the short - term at low levels and should be treated with an oscillatory view [5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - After the holiday, with the implementation of macro - policy expectations, the market returned to the supply - demand fundamentals. Affected by the holiday, the demand for the five major steel products declined significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, the market pessimism rose, the futures prices fell significantly, the spot prices decreased synchronously, and the basis widened [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 223.53 tons (down 4.22% month - on - month and 3.07% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil production was 320.38 tons (up 0.34% month - on - month and down 1.46% year - on - year). The production of both blast - furnace and electric - furnace rebar decreased [15][17][18]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast - furnace operating rate remained stable at 84.62% (up 0.34 month - on - month and 4.99% year - on - year), and the electric - furnace operating rate slightly decreased to 72.73% (down 0.27% month - on - month and up 13.32% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: The profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils shrank month - on - month. The rebar profit was + 90 yuan/ton (down 29.69% week - on - week and 24.37% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil profit was + 30 yuan/ton (down 39.47 week - on - week and 58.93% year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 213.9 tons (down 26.67% month - on - month and 26.32% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 309.53 tons (down 6.97% month - on - month and 4.20% year - on - year). The demand for rebar declined significantly, and the demand for hot - rolled coils also decreased [32][36]. - **Inventory**: The total rebar inventory was 653.63 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 26% year - on - year), with the factory inventory increasing and the social inventory decreasing. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 365.12 tons (up 3.06% month - on - month and down 13.37% year - on - year), with the factory inventory slightly decreasing and the social inventory increasing [37][40][41]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 0.89% month - on - month and decreased by 18.97% year - on - year, and the transaction land area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 12.36% month - on - month and 58.37% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% [46][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 97.82 (up 0.64% month - on - month and down 15.95% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2422.5 tons (down 4.64% month - on - month and 0.95% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2354.6 tons (down 3.88% month - on - month and up 9.70% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily pig - iron output was 245.64 tons (up 0.22 tons month - on - month and 6.39 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.21 tons (down 5.01% month - on - month and up 5.95% year - on - year). The inventory - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.48 days (down 3.94% month - on - month and 9.60% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 14238.71 tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and 3.83% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8958.98 tons (down 4.03% month - on - month and 3.91% year - on - year) [66][71]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operating rate was 89.92% (up 0.20% month - on - month and 3.26% year - on - year), the coal - washing plant operating rate was 62.42% (down 0.87% month - on - month and 2.62% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 13.37 tons (up 63.10% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [73][77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was + 1 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month and 62 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 75.05% (down 0.50% month - on - month and up 4.29% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 775.13 tons (down 4.33% month - on - month and up 7.69% year - on - year), the steel - mill coking coal inventory was 787.41 tons (up 0.36 month - on - month and 6.33% year - on - year), and the port coking coal inventory was 297.81 tons (down 4.48% month - on - month and up 30.91% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 65.09 tons (down 2.94% month - on - month and up 43.53% year - on - year), the steel - mill coke inventory was 671.03 tons (down 0.62% month - on - month and up 20.53% year - on - year), and the port coke inventory was 229.08 tons (down 3.80% month - on - month and up 2.97% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week and 780 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month and down 700 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][103]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened, and the 10 - 1 spread also widened. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke widened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread widened in the short - term [105][110]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Politburo meeting, the market gradually returns to the supply - demand fundamentals. The five major steel products are continuously destocking. The increase in production is mainly concentrated in hot - rolled coils and medium - thick plates. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with both weekly production and demand decreasing, and destocking slightly slowing down, but the overall inventory is low, and there is a shortage of specifications in the market, resulting in a strong willingness to support spot prices. Hot - rolled coils have both increasing production and demand, with short - term demand having certain resilience, and the export pressure has not fully emerged, but attention should be paid to the weakening of export orders from May to June. Recently, there has been an obvious increase in billet export feedback, which helps to relieve the pressure of overall steel supply. At the same time, there are rumors of steel mills controlling production and reducing volume, which need to be continuously monitored. Before the holiday, due to the background of margin increase, the willingness of funds to leave the market is enhanced, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [3]. - For iron ore, the supply of iron ore has increased, and the port has started to accumulate inventory. The supply - demand is loose, and the price still faces pressure. The short - term price tends to fluctuate in a low - level range. Before the May Day holiday, due to the background of margin increase, the willingness of funds to leave the market is enhanced, and there are great uncertainties in the overseas market during the holiday, so it is recommended to hold a light position [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the production of coking coal is stable, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a relatively high level. There is certain restocking support in the market before the holiday, and the port coking coal continues to destock, but the absolute quantity is still at a historical high level in the same period, and the medium - and long - term loose pattern remains unchanged. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, and the game of the second round of coke price increase has intensified, and whether it can be implemented before the holiday remains to be seen. The increase in hot metal provides certain support for the raw material end, but considering the limited subsequent increase and the enhanced willingness of funds to leave the market before the holiday, the price still shows pressure, and the overall situation shows a low - level shock, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The macro - environment has warmed up, and steel prices have rebounded from the low level. The spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have both shown a low - level rebound trend, and the basis has widened. The inventory of the industry continues to be destocked, but the destocking of rebar and hot - rolled coils has slowed down to varying degrees. Due to the relatively low absolute inventory of rebar and the shortage of specifications in the market, the willingness to support prices is strong. The export pressure of hot - rolled coils has not fully emerged [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly production is 229.11 tons (down 0.05% month - on - month, up 3.18% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly production is 317.5 tons (up 0.99% month - on - month, up 0.60% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace production increased slightly, and electric furnace production decreased [16][18][23]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit is +98 yuan/ton (up 34.25% week - on - week, down 36.36% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit is +29 yuan/ton (up 31.82% week - on - week, down 79.72% year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption is 259.94 tons (down 5.07% month - on - month, down 2.31% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions is 12.13 tons (up 9.10% month - on - month, down 19.14% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption is 324.36 tons (up 0.06% month - on - month, up 0.28% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory is 702.33 tons (down 4.21% month - on - month, down 25.98% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory is 367.69 tons (down 1.83% month - on - month, down 10.32% year - on - year) [42][47]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 12.14% week - on - week and decreased by 23.38% year - on - year; the transaction land area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.26% week - on - week and decreased by 30.78% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% respectively. The cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2% respectively [51][54]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 27.584 million tons (up 13.16% month - on - month, up 6.19% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports of iron ore is 25.128 million tons (up 8.06% month - on - month, up 27.06% year - on - year) [62]. - **Demand**: Hot metal daily output is 2.4435 million tons (up 423,000 tons month - on - month, up 683,000 tons year - on - year), and the port ore handling volume at 45 ports of iron ore is 3.2792 million tons (up 5.95% month - on - month, up 1.16% year - on - year) [67]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports of iron ore is 142.61 million tons (up 1.46% month - on - month, down 3.37% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 90.7303 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year) [73]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operation rate of coking coal mines is 88.38% (up 0.78% month - on - month, up 3.37% year - on - year), and the operation rate of coal washing plants is 63.01% (up 1.79% month - on - month, down 6.15% year - on - year). The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 138,100 tons (down 2.48% month - on - month, up 63.94% year - on - year) [79]. - **Demand**: The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions is 75.36% (down 5.86% week - on - week, down 18.65% year - on - year) [82]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is - 9 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month, up 117 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants is 75.27% (up 2.53% month - on - month, up 15.23% year - on - year) [88]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants is 8.2006 million tons (down 1.21% month - on - month, up 26.74% year - on - year), and the coking coal inventory at the port is 3.2479 million tons (down 3.73% month - on - month, up 47.29% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants is 688,200 tons (up 1.27% month - on - month, up 35.74% year - on - year), and the coke inventory at the port is 2.4358 million tons (down 1.02% month - on - month, up 15.83% year - on - year) [94][100]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1,300 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1,200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month, down 600 yuan/ton year - on - year) [106]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of hot - rolled coils has slightly widened, and the spread between rebar 05 - 10 contracts has shown a narrow - range fluctuation. The spread between iron ore 05 - 09 contracts has narrowed, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has slightly widened [108][113].

4月23日盘中，螺纹钢期货主力合约震荡上行，最高上探至3146.00元。截止收盘，螺纹钢主力合约报 3137.00元，涨幅1.46%。 南华期货（603093） 螺纹10合约可关注3150-3200附近压力位 国都期货：螺纹钢3000-3150区间震荡思路对待 五大钢材品种供应872.71万吨，周环比增加1.65万吨，增幅0.2%；总库存1584.68万吨，周环比降75.93 万吨，降幅4.6%；周消费量为948.64万吨，环比增5.3%，其中建材消费环比增11.1%，板材消费环比增 1.8%。消息面，据Mysteel不完全统计，中天、武钢等多家钢厂检修减产。基本面，五大钢材供需双 增，下游旺季需求持续释放，消费呈现建材板材双增，总库存大幅下降，主要来自螺纹贡献。低价抄底 和天气回暖等因素下，钢材需求有韧性，钢价短期或反弹。策略上，螺纹钢10合约近期被3150一线压 制，关注下方3000附近支撑，3000-3150区间震荡思路对待。 机构 核心观点 国都期货 螺纹钢3000-3150区间震荡思路对待 光大期货 预计短期螺纹盘面仍以低位整理为主 光大期货：预计短期螺纹盘面仍以低位整理为主 印度财政部4月21日在 ...