Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry have improved, but downstream demand remains weak. The price of coking coal and coke has increased this week, strengthening cost - side support and limiting the downside space for steel prices. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Finished Products - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major domestic steel mills was 2.0707 million tons (+59,100 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2246 million tons (+6,200 tons) [5]. - **Demand**: Recent high - frequency data shows that the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.2601 million tons (+62,600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.2673 million tons (+111,800 tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 6.2211 million tons (-189,400 tons), social inventory was 4.3748 million tons (-189,300 tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.8463 million tons (-1,000 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.1492 million tons (-42,700 tons), social inventory was 3.3757 million tons (-37,700 tons), and steel mill inventory was 773,500 tons (-5,000 tons) [5]. - **Basis**: Futures fluctuated, and the basis was volatile [5]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a 7.79% week - on - week decrease; pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 84.71%, a 0.44% week - on - week increase, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a 0.39% week - on - week decrease; the electric furnace operating rate was 67.86%, a 0.99% week - on - week decrease, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 52.3%, a 0.9% week - on - week decrease [5]. 3.2. Macro Aspect - Local time from October 25th to 26th, China and the United States held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and the two sides reached a preliminary consensus. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". The draft states that in key areas, the total steel production capacity shall not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas and between different key areas is prohibited [6]. 3.3. Raw Materials - **Prices**: This week, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton (a 40 - yuan increase), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,575 yuan/ton (no change), and the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/ton (no change) [17]. - **Pig Iron and Electric Furnace**: Pig iron output continued to decline, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased. As of October 24, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.44% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 0.99% week - on - week, and pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 tons [19][21]. 3.4. Steel Mill Profitability As of October 24th, the profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a 7.79% week - on - week decrease. The increase in cost - side prices squeezed steel profits [29]. 3.5. Tangshan Blast Furnace Operating Rate As of October 24th, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 93.44%, a 1.76% week - on - week increase [33]. 3.6. Steel Production As of October 24th, rebar production increased by 59,100 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process production increased by 44,100 tons week - on - week, and short - process production increased by 15,000 tons week - on - week. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 6,200 tons week - on - week and remained at a high level [38]. 3.7. Demand - Rebar consumption increased by 62,600 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil demand increased by 111,800 tons week - on - week [44]. - As of October 24th, the weekly average building materials trading volume was 100,500 tons, and the trading volume remained at a low level. The weekly average hot - rolled coil trading volume was 31,900 tons. Downstream cold - rolled production was 860,700 tons, a 13,400 - ton week - on - week decrease with an increased decline [47][52]. 3.8. Steel Inventory - As of October 24th, Tangshan billet inventory was 540,100 tons, a 96,000 - ton week - on - week increase. The inventory of major steel products was 10.9942 million tons, a 261,000 - ton week - on - week decrease [55]. - Rebar total inventory decreased by 189,400 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 189,300 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 1,000 tons week - on - week [57]. - Hot - rolled total inventory decreased by 42,700 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 37,700 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 5,000 tons week - on - week [62]. 3.9. Steel Exports In August, steel exports were 9.41 million tons, a 330,000 - ton month - on - month decrease; from January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a 10% year - on - year increase [65]. 3.10. Automobile Production and Sales - In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a 466,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. - In September, new energy vehicle production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 226,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million tons, a 209,000 - ton month - on - month increase [69]. 3.11. Real Estate Data From January to September, real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, the newly started housing area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, the completed housing area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales volume decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, and the funds in place decreased by 8.4% year - on - year [71][72].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The cost provides some support, but demand pressure persists. The market needs more driving factors to break the current situation. Suggestions include maintaining a range - bound trading strategy for single - side trades, holding long positions on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for arbitrage, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for options [7]. Group 3: Summary by Chapter Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: Total steel production is starting to decline. The daily average of hot - metal from 247 blast furnaces has dropped below 240 million tons, and the overall steel production has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel is 51 million tons [4]. - **Demand**: The overall steel demand has shifted to destocking. Although demand has improved with the cooling weather, downstream construction sites face difficulties in payment collection, and the number of projects on hand in the fourth quarter has declined. The real - estate demand is weak, and the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line, though it has improved. The automobile industry shows strong growth but may face a decline in demand later, and the production of white goods in October is expected to decrease [4]. - **Inventory**: Steel products are generally in the process of destocking. Rebar has seen a faster destocking rate, and hot - rolled coil has also started to destock [4]. - **Outlook**: Steel prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation. The cost provides some support due to factors such as rising coal prices, but demand pressure persists. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: The summary price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm general coil) in Shanghai is 3310 yuan/ton (+40), and the summary price of rebar (HRB400: 20mm) in Shanghai is 3240 yuan/ton (-). The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3200 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of rebar in Beijing is 3170 yuan/ton (+10) [11]. - **Profit**: Short - process steelmaking profits have increased, but there is a slight reduction in production. Long - process steelmaking is still in a loss state, but the loss has been slightly reduced. The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric furnace is - 231.69 yuan (+15.3), and the off - peak electricity profit is - 67 yuan (+15) [4][26]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Real - Estate Data**: From January to September, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 18.9%. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing also declined [28]. - **Industrial Production Data**: In September 2025, China's crude steel production decreased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the production of some industrial products such as air conditioners, refrigerators, etc., showed different trends of increase or decrease [28]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In September, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, and the growth rates of real - estate, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment all declined [34]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 239.9 million tons (-1.05), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 33% (-0.2). The small - sample output of rebar is 207.07 million tons (+5.91), and the small - sample output of hot - rolled coil is 322.46 million tons (+0.62) [4][57]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar is 226.01 million tons (+8.58), and the small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 326.73 million tons (+10.39). The overall steel demand has shifted to destocking, but the demand pressure is still high [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory has decreased by 18.59 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased by 0.93 million tons. The overall steel inventory has decreased by 27.41 million tons [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly - Steel [2] - Release Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In this period, the production of rebar increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased; the same situation occurred for hot-rolled coils. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased month-on-month. The rebar 2601 contract fluctuated, and the hot-rolled coil 2601 contract also fluctuated [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - In September 2025, the new construction of real estate increased month-on-month [5]. 2. Supply - In September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 955,000 tons or 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.402 million tons or 9.2% [7]. - The pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,500 tons and a year-on-year increase of 42,100 tons [7]. - The output of the five major steel products was 8.6532 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 83,700 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 152,600 tons. The rebar output was 2.0707 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 59,100 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 440,800 tons; the hot-rolled coil output was 3.2246 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 180,700 tons [7]. - The electric furnace operating rate was 67.86%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% [7]. 3. Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.5485 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 274,100 tons and a year-on-year increase of 2.9553 million tons. The rebar inventory was 6.2211 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 189,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1.8738 million tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.1492 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 42,700 tons and a year-on-year increase of 607,500 tons [7]. 4. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.9273 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 173,200 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 10,800 tons [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), the market is expected to be weak and fluctuate at a low level. Although the high daily output of hot metal provides support for raw materials, the demand after the holiday is cautious, and the inventory accumulation during the National Day holiday and the pressure from mid - month delivery affect the market. The downward space for steel prices is relatively limited [3]. - For iron ore, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply has increased in stages, the daily output of hot metal remains high, and the inventory pressure is limited. The price is more easily affected by the macro and news [4]. - For coking coal and coke, they are expected to be weak and fluctuate. The high daily output of hot metal provides support, but short - term risks such as trade tariffs and terminal delivery inventory pressure need to be vigilant [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - After the holiday, the demand was average, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level. During the holiday, the spot market had prices but no transactions, and the demand was weak. The five major steel products showed traditional inventory accumulation, with the social inventory of hot - rolled coil slightly exceeding the historical average. After the holiday, although prices were under pressure, the high hot - metal output supported raw materials [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar decreased to 203.4 tons (down 1.75% month - on - month and 13.91% year - on - year), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil slightly declined to 323.29 tons (down 0.43% month - on - month and up 4.90% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar decreased. The blast furnace operating rate remained stable, and the electric furnace operating rate slightly increased. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined [16][18][23]. - **Demand**: Affected by the holiday, the apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased significantly. The apparent consumption of rebar was 153.18 tons (down 36.46% month - on - month and 40.59% year - on - year), and that of hot - rolled coil was 295.01 tons (down 9.12% month - on - month and 6.63% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: The rebar inventory increased from a decreasing trend, with both factory and social inventories accumulating. The total rebar inventory was 659.64 tons (up 9.53% month - on - month and 49.63% year - on - year). The hot - rolled coil inventory increased significantly, mainly in social inventory, with a total inventory of 412.9 tons (up 8.49% month - on - month and 7.72% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land decreased month - on - month. In the automotive market, in August 2025, the production and sales of automobiles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly to 26.665 million tons (down 2.23% month - on - month and up 7.02% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased to 30.458 million tons (up 16.76% month - on - month and 3.29% year - on - year) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 2.4154 million tons (down 0.27 tons month - on - month and up 8.46 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased slightly to 3.27 million tons (down 2.79% month - on - month and up 0.61% year - on - year) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased slightly to 140.245 million tons (up 0.17% month - on - month and down 8.32% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 90.4619 million tons (down 9.87% month - on - month and up 0.68% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased to 81.89% (down 5.33% month - on - month and 6.11% year - on - year), and the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased to 177,300 tons (down 3.38% month - on - month and up 62.10% year - on - year). The independent coking plant's ton - coke profit increased to 9 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate remained stable [77][85]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal remained at a high level, which provided support for coking coal and coke [5]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants decreased to 8.1913 million tons (down 7.80% month - on - month and up 11.80% year - on - year), and the port inventory remained unchanged. The coke inventory of independent coking plants increased to 425,400 tons (up 9.05% month - on - month and 13.56% year - on - year), and the port inventory increased slightly [91][97]. - **Spot Price**: The first - round price increase of coke was implemented during the holiday, and the game between steel and coke continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi decreased, while the ex - factory price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Handan increased [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar slightly shrank, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated narrowly. The coil - to - rebar spread fluctuated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal and coke slightly shrank [105][111].

Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, demand for steel is expected to seasonally recover, and inventory is expected to maintain a seasonal destocking trend. Although demand elasticity is limited, short - term supply and demand are basically balanced, and inventory pressure is not significant. - Before the holiday, the decline in steel prices was due to concerns about supply pressure and the expected swing of coal mine production cuts. During the holiday, there were disturbances on the iron ore supply side, which is expected to support steel prices to stabilize. - For trading strategies, the unilateral driving force is not obvious. In terms of arbitrage, reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread should be considered at high levels, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to converge. [1] Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3240 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3298 yuan/ton to 3259 yuan/ton. [1] Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2950 yuan/ton, while the price of slab remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. - Profits from steel products generally declined. For example, the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 35 yuan/ton. [1] Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 2.1 to 867.1, a 0.2% increase. - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 37.8 to 1472.9, a 2.5% decrease. The inventory of rebar decreased by 34.1 to 602.3, a 5.4% decrease. [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material transactions decreased by 2.9 to 8.0, a 26.5% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 30.8 to 904.8, a 3.5% increase. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 20.6 to 241.1, a 9.4% increase. [1] Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - There have been many disturbances on the supply side of iron ore, but the overseas iron ore swap market has only shown a slight increase. Iron ore has a driving force for a rebound, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual arrival of BHP's shipments at ports. - For trading strategies, short - term investors can buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low levels in the price range of 760 - 830, go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils, and buy out - of - the - money call options on iron ore 2601. [4] Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 - contract for different types of iron ore increased. For example, the basis of the 01 - contract for PB powder increased by 3.5 to 44.4, an 8.5% increase. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 19.0, a 2.6% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 to - 40.0, a 2.4% increase; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 21.0, a 2.3% decrease. [4] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The price of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, while the price of new - exchange 62% Fe swaps increased slightly by 0.2 to 104.2, a 0.1% increase. [4] Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 248.2 to 2608.7, a 10.5% increase; the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 196.4 to 3279.0, a 5.7% decrease. - The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 241.8, a 0.2% decrease; the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 336.4 to 0.0, a 100.0% decrease. [4] Report on the Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints Coke - After the holiday, there is an expectation of another round of price increases for coke, but due to the decline in steel prices and the compression of steel mill profits, there may be downward pressure on prices. Since the pre - holiday decline in the futures market has already factored in some of the downward expectations, the further downward space is limited, and the market is expected to fluctuate. - For trading strategies, operate in a fluctuating market with a price range of 1550 - 1650. Go long on coke and short on coking coal, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coke 2601 (over - the - counter) to bet on the post - holiday restocking expectation. [8] Coking Coal - Although there have been some disturbances on the supply side, considering the pre - holiday weak operation of the coking coal market, the impact is expected to be limited. The long - term import trade of coking coal will still maintain high profits, and the post - holiday customs clearance volume is expected to remain high, which will have a certain impact on the domestic coking coal market. Since the pre - holiday decline in the futures market has already factored in some of the downward expectations, the market is expected to fluctuate. - For trading strategies, operate in a fluctuating market with a price range of 1080 - 1180. Go long on coke and short on coking coal, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coking coal 2601 (over - the - counter) to bet on the policy - driven production reduction expectation. [8] Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke contracts generally declined. For example, the 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 24 to 1623, a 1.5% decrease. The 01 - contract basis increased by 24. [8] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal contracts also declined. For example, the 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 28 to 1126, a 2.4% decrease. The 01 - contract basis increased by 23. [8] Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.1, a 0.4% decrease. - The pig iron output decreased by 0.6 to 241.8, a 0.2% decrease. - Coke inventory decreased slightly, while coking coal inventory in some sectors increased. For example, the inventory of all - sample coking plants' coking coal increased by 38.6 to 1037.7, a 3.9% increase. [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel supply and demand have increased month - on - month, with the apparent demand of five major steel products rising to 8.74 million tons and inventory starting to decline. The supply - demand gap has narrowed. Considering high steel exports, seasonal improvement in demand, and a positive macro - environment, steel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory range. The recommended operation is to try long positions with a light position and hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [1] Iron Ore - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a strong oscillatory trend. Supply - side global shipments decreased week - on - week while port arrivals increased. Demand - side, steel mill profit margins slightly declined, but daily hot - metal production increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient for the peak season. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory also rose. Iron ore is in a tight - balance situation, with a recommended trading range of 780 - 850. The strategy is to go long on iron ore 2601 on dips and recommend an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coke [4][6] Coke - As of the previous day's close, the coke futures rebounded. Spot prices are expected to gradually rise, with a possible 2 - 3 round increase. Supply - side, rising coking coal prices led to some losses for coke enterprises and a decline in production. Demand - side, steel mills continued to resume production, and hot - metal production increased. Inventory - side, coke plants and ports reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The strategy is to go short on the coke 2601 contract at high levels in the range of 1650 - 1800 and recommend an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed little change, with some contract prices fluctuating slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price increased by 3 yuan/ton to 3074 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets remained stable, while the cost of some steel products changed slightly. Profits of different steel products in various regions also changed, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 1 yuan to 143 yuan [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal production increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 1.1% to 864 tons. The production of rebar remained unchanged, while the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.7% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.6% to 15.106 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 2.1% to 6.363 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% to 3.805 million tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 12.9% to 104,000 tons. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 2.8% to 8.741 million tons, and the apparent demand of rebar increased by 5.0% to 2.204 million tons [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of different iron ore varieties increased slightly, with the 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread decreasing by 2.4%, and the 9 - 1 spread increasing by 2.4% [4] Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 13.2% to 26.75 million tons, while the global weekly shipments decreased by 6.9% to 33.248 million tons. The national monthly import volume increased by 0.6% to 105.225 million tons [4] Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6% to 242.4 tons, and the 45 - port daily average unloading volume increased by 2.4% to 339.2 tons. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.9% to 139.3097 million tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 3.5% to 93.094 million tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.1% to 24 days [4] Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal contract prices increased, with the coking profit decreasing by 11 yuan/ton and the sample coal - mine profit increasing by 4.2% [6] Supply - Coke production decreased by 0.6%, while coking coal production increased, with raw coal production increasing by 1.3% and clean coal production increasing by 1.8% [6] Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%, and the demand for coke was supported [6] Inventory - Coke inventory increased slightly, with coke plants and ports reducing inventory and steel mills increasing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased, with coal mines and ports reducing inventory and coke plants and steel mills increasing inventory [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports about industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend considering high - level steel exports, seasonal improvement in demand, and a positive macro environment. Suggest light - position long - entry attempts and holding short positions on the January spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Although the weak performance of finished steel drags down raw materials, it is still considered to oscillate upward. It is recommended to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coils [4]. Coke Industry - The spot price of coke is expected to gradually rebound. The market is trading the expectation of coal - coke production restrictions from September to October and the driving force of a bottom - building rebound. It is recommended to go long on the Coke 01 contract at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market is expected to be in a balanced and slightly tight state. It is recommended to go long on the Coking Coal 01 contract at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar increased by 15 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 30 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5, a 0.2% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7, a 0.3% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials trading volume increased by 1.2 to 10.4, a 12.9% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3, a 0.8% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed small fluctuations. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased significantly, for example, the 01 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 44.6, a 54.0% decrease [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 248.3 to 3324.8, a 6.9% decrease, while the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 312.7 to 2675.0, a 13.2% increase. The weekly average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 129.9 to 13930.97, a 0.9% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 316.4 to 9309.4, a 3.5% increase [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) increased by 11 to 1603, a 0.7% increase [6]. Supply and Demand - The weekly average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7. The weekly iron ore output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2, a 1.0% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.4 to 66.4, a 2.1% decrease [6]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 5 to 1185, a 0.4% increase [6]. Supply and Demand - The output of sample coal mines increased, with the raw coal output increasing by 11.4 to 872.5, a 1.3% increase. The demand for coking coal increased as the iron ore output continued to rise and the coking plant operation remained stable [6]. Inventory - The inventory of coal mines, ports, and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increased [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current pricing of steel is affected by weak steel demand and the expected contraction of coal supply. With the impact of the contraction in coking coal supply and restocking before the National Day, the downside space is expected to be limited, and the price will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3260 to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3399 to 3367 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of some steel products changed slightly, and the profit of most steel products decreased. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased from 173 to 168 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), while the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5 (- 0.2%). The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7 (0.3%) [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3 (0.8%), and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0 (6.0%) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias in a range - bound manner, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is suggested to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract at low levels and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 - contract for multiple varieties decreased significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 - contract for PB powder decreased from 80.1 to 40.3 (- 49.7%) [4]. - **Supply**: The global shipment volume of iron ore last week increased significantly by 816.9 to 3573.1 (29.6%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3 (- 3.5%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3 (4.2%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41 (- 0.3%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1 (0.6%) [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300 [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 22 to 1657 (1.3%). The price of the coking coal 01 - contract decreased by 30 to 1204 (- 2.4%) [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6 (5.1%). The output of raw coal in main producing areas increased by 11.4 to 872.5 (1.3%) [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2 (1.0%), with coking plants reducing inventory and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly, with coal mines, ports, and steel mills reducing inventory and washing plants, coking plants, and ports increasing inventory [6].

1. Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel market is currently influenced by weak steel demand and expectations of a contraction in coal supply. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Supported by the high - level production of steel mills from September to October and the supply - side expectations of coal, raw material prices are resilient, which supports steel prices. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to repair upwards, and short - term long positions can be attempted. Pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. The upper pressure levels for rebar are around 3350 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils around 3500 yuan/ton [1]. Summary of Related Contents Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot in the South China region increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 36 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices changed, with steel billet prices increasing by 20 yuan/ton. The cost of steel production fluctuated, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, while the profit of rebar in the South China region increased by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1% to 240.6 tons, and the production of the five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 857.2 tons. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 0.9% to 1514.6 tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.0%, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 1.9%. However, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.0%, while that for hot - rolled coils increased by 6.8% [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile upward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipping volume rebounded significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, after the end of major events, the pig iron output rebounded significantly last week, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season. The raw materials were stronger than the finished products. In terms of inventory, the port inventory increased slightly, the port clearance volume increased month - on - month, and the inventory of imported ores of 247 steel mills increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, due to the still high profitability of steel mills, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year supports iron ore prices. The iron ore market is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to take a long position on the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices and engage in arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary of Related Contents Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties increased, while the 01 contract basis of various varieties decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11.4%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.1% [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 3.5%, and the global shipping volume increased by 29.6%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%, and the port clearance volume increased by 4.2%. The monthly production of pig iron and crude steel decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3%, the inventory of imported ores of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%, and the available days of inventory of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% [4]. 3. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View As of the previous day's close, the coke and coking coal futures showed a strong rebound. For coke, the second - round price cut by steel mills on the spot market has been implemented, but the third - round price cut is difficult. The supply side has resumed production rapidly, and the demand side is still supported by the rebound of iron - making water. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. For coking coal, the spot auction price is stable with a weak trend, and the downstream purchase intention has recovered. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to take a long position on the coke 2601 contract at low prices (range reference: 1650 - 1800), take a long position on the coking coal 2601 contract at low prices (range reference: 1070 - 1300), and engage in arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke, while paying attention to risks due to large market fluctuations [6]. Summary of Related Contents Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices increased, with the 01 contract of coke increasing by 2.8% and the 01 contract of coking coal increasing by 4.5%. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%. The iron - making water output increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal was supported [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.2%, and the coking coal inventory of different sectors changed, with some sectors de - stocking and some sectors slightly increasing inventory [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Seasonal improvement in apparent demand is expected later, with a narrowing supply - demand gap and mild inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is unlikely to exceed the current production level. Currently, steel prices are supported by the strong raw material prices due to high steel mill production in September - October and supply - side expectations of coal. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day inventory replenishment, prices are expected to recover. The pressure levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3350 yuan and 3500 yuan respectively [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in different regions rose slightly or remained unchanged, and futures prices also increased. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and futures prices also showed an upward trend [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of some steel production processes decreased, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions increased, and the profit of rebar in some regions improved [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1% to 240.6. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 857.2. Rebar production decreased by 3.1% to 211.9, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.5% to 325.1 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.9% to 1514.6, rebar inventory increased by 2.2% to 653.9, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.3% to 373.3 [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 1.0%, the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 1.9% to 843.3, rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.0% to 198.1, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 6.8% to 326.2 [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side saw a slight decline in steel mill profit margins, a significant increase in pig iron output last week after major events, and an increase in steel mill inventory replenishment demand. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season, with raw materials stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, and the port clearance volume increased month - on - month. Looking forward, due to the still - high profitability of steel mills, pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year supports iron ore prices. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry. Iron ore is currently in a balanced and tight pattern, with a bullish view on single - side fluctuations, and the recommended trading range is 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly. The basis of the 01 contract for some varieties increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread changed significantly, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, and the new exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 3.5% to 2362.3, and the global weekly shipment volume increased by 29.6% to 3573.1. The national monthly import volume decreased by 1.2% to 10462.3 [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 4.2% to 337.3, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.0, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7737.0 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the import ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6% to 8993.1, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% to 20.0 [4]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the recent futures and spot prices. The second - round price cut by steel mills in the spot market was implemented, and the port trade quotes followed the decline. The third - round price cut is considered difficult. On the supply side, coking enterprises in the north resumed production rapidly due to still - existing profits after two - round price cuts. On the demand side, steel mills resumed production this week, and the downstream demand was still supported. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills increased inventory slightly, while ports reduced inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coking coal and coke in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market risks [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coke varieties decreased, and the futures prices of coke increased. The basis and spreads of the 01 and 05 contracts changed. The coking profit decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6 [6]. - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8 [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 1.2% to 906.2, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.0% to 67.8, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.5% to 633.3, and the port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 75.44% to - 3.1 [6]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between futures and spot. The spot auction prices were stable to weak, and the Mongolian coal quotes followed the futures rebound. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it still takes time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main - producing area coal mines resumed production as expected, and the logistics and transportation recovered. In terms of imports, the Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. On the demand side, the pig iron output increased significantly this week, and the coking operation rate increased synchronously. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills reduced inventory, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports increased inventory slightly, and the overall inventory decreased slightly in the middle position. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market risks [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coking coal varieties decreased slightly, and the futures prices of coking coal increased. The basis and spreads of the 01 and 05 contracts changed [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of raw coal increased by 5.4% to 867, and the weekly output of clean coal increased by 5.6% to 442.5 [6]. - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8 [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 1.2% to 125.0, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.0% to 883.5, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.34% to 793.7, and the port inventory decreased by 1.6% to 271.1 [6].